Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to contract due to the upcoming safety production inspections, which may lead to an increase in coal prices as demand rises in November [2][3]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Supply Impact - In November, 22 safety inspection teams will enter 31 provinces and regions to conduct annual assessments, focusing on major safety issues and illegal activities in production [2]. - The inspections may lead to rectifications of safety hazards related to overproduction in the coal sector, further tightening coal supply [2][3]. - Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with expectations of further reductions due to the inspections [2]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - The coal price has rebounded during the off-season, stabilizing above 700 yuan/ton by the end of September, primarily due to supply contraction [3]. - As the heating season begins in mid-November, the demand for coal is expected to increase, particularly from non-electric sectors like coal chemical industries, which may support coal prices [3]. - The anticipated supply reduction is expected to end the seasonal price decline early, with projections suggesting coal prices could exceed 900 yuan/ton by year-end [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising coal prices, with a focus on companies with high spot market exposure [3]. - Recommended investment targets include: 1. Companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy [3]. 2. Stable and growth-oriented companies like Jincheng Anthracite Mining and Huayang Co., Ltd. [3]. 3. Companies with recovery in production, such as Shanxi Coal International [3]. 4. Industry leaders with stable performance, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector is experiencing inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints and potential price support due to a tight supply-demand balance [1] Supply Side - During the holiday, some mines underwent maintenance, and three major ports for Mongolian coal were closed for seven days, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventory [1] - Post-holiday, an acceleration in customs clearance is expected, while sea freight coal arrivals have decreased from high levels, resulting in a reduction in supply compared to the previous period [1] Market Performance - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits have also recovered alongside price rebounds [1] - Citic Securities reports that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters [1] Price Outlook - The iron and steel production remains high in the context of a "de-involution" environment, and if the coal industry continues to enforce production checks, it may maintain a tight balance in the coking coal supply-demand structure, supporting coking coal prices [1] - The overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable in Q4, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons, and if the de-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] Sector Improvement - The current policies, coal prices, and performance expectations for the sector are improving, and there is potential for sustained excess returns as market styles rotate or policies catalyze [1] Related Companies - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]

Core Insights - The coking coal sector experienced inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints due to maintenance at some mines and a seven-day closure of three major ports for Mongolian coal, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventories [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits also saw a recovery alongside price rebounds [1] - The high iron and steel production levels in the domestic "anti-involution" environment may support a tight supply-demand balance in the coking coal industry, potentially stabilizing prices and restoring profit margins for Mongolian coal trading companies [1] - CITIC Securities reported that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters; coking coal and anthracite companies show greater earnings elasticity, while the thermal coal sector remains the largest profit contributor [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons; if the anti-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] - The current policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations in the sector are improving, and the sector may see sustained excess returns with market style rotation or policy catalysts in the future [1] Related Hong Kong Stocks - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks have seen significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for various companies, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the coal industry [1] Company Performance - Strength Development (01277) increased by 5.76%, trading at 1.47 HKD - China Coal Energy (601898) (01898) rose by 4.37%, trading at 9.8 HKD - Yida Commodity (01733) saw a 3.45% increase, trading at 0.9 HKD - China Shenhua Energy (601088) (01088) gained 2.91%, trading at 38.92 HKD [1] Industry Outlook - Zheshang Securities (601878) forecasts that the overall performance of coal enterprises will see a narrowing year-on-year decline by Q3 2025, with improvements expected on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - As the heating season approaches, power plants and heating companies are expected to replenish their stocks, which will support an increase in spot prices due to elevated long-term contract prices [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to promote industry self-discipline, driving a reduction in coal supply and further supporting steady price increases [1] - Capacity replacement restrictions are expected to limit production scale, potentially leading to a decrease in capacity due to capacity indicators [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced significant gains in the late trading session, indicating positive market sentiment towards the coal industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Strength Development (01277) rose by 5.76%, reaching HKD 1.47 - China Coal Energy (01898) increased by 4.37%, reaching HKD 9.8 - Yida Commodity (01733) saw a rise of 3.45%, reaching HKD 0.9 - China Shenhua (01088) gained 2.91%, reaching HKD 38.92 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Zheshang Securities forecasts that the overall performance of coal enterprises will see a narrowing year-on-year decline and an improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis by Q3 2025 [1] - As the heating season approaches, power plants and heating companies are expected to replenish their stocks, which will support an increase in spot prices due to long-term contract price rises [1] - Coal prices are anticipated to rise in mid to late October [1] Group 3: Policy and Supply Dynamics - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue promoting industry self-discipline, driving a contraction in coal supply and further supporting steady coal price increases [1] - Capacity replacement restrictions are likely to limit production scale, with potential reductions in capacity influenced by capacity indicators [1] - The industry maintains a "positive" outlook rating [1]

截至6月30日，中国神华股东户数16.13万，较上期减少16.75%；人均流通股103331股，较上期增加 20.32%。2025年1月-6月，中国神华实现营业收入1381.09亿元，同比减少17.83%；归母净利润246.41亿 元，同比减少16.48%。 资料显示，中国神华能源股份有限公司位于北京市东城区安定门西滨河路22号,香港中环花园道1号中银 大厦60楼B室，成立日期2004年11月8日，上市日期2007年10月9日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭和电力的生 产与销售、铁路和港口运输,航运业务,煤制烯烃业务。主营业务收入构成为：煤炭收入64.56%，发电收 入25.96%，其他(补充)4.12%，运输收入3.87%，煤化工收入1.50%。 中国神华所属申万行业为：煤炭-煤炭开采-动力煤。所属概念板块包括：动力煤、茅概念、融资融券、 超大盘、基金重仓等。 10月9日，中国神华盘中上涨2.00%，截至13:32，报39.27元/股，成交10.55亿元，换手率0.17%，总市值 7802.37亿元。 分红方面，中国神华A股上市后累计派现4609.99亿元。近三年，累计派现1404.70亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金 ...

8 月1 日晚，中国神华发布公告，将筹划发行股份及支付现金收购集团持有的煤炭、坑口煤电以及煤制 油煤制气煤化工等相关资产并募集配套资金，同时公司A 股股票将于8 月4 日开市起停牌，预计停牌时 间不超过10 个交易日。具体收购资产包括：国源电力、化工公司、新疆能源、乌海能源、包头矿业、 神延煤炭、晋神能源、平庄煤业、内蒙建投、煤炭运销公司、港口公司、航运公司、电子商务公司的股 权。 煤价超预期下跌、火电业务受新能源挤压、一体化经营风险、分红政策调整风险。 1）根本性解决集团与神华的同业竞争问题，大幅减少关联交易。2）很大程度上增加煤炭等资源的储量 （资源稀缺性的价值不可忽视），增强能源保供能力。3）巩固和提升煤电化运一体化运行的能力和效 率。 4）大幅增强和优化公司的经营状况、盈利能力和现金流水平。我们认为本次收购大概率不会影响公司 现金分红能力，集团新领导上任后，公司各业务加速推进，利好公司长远发展。 【投资建议】 盈利预测与评级。我们认为，本次收购大概率不会影响公司现金分红能力，仍然有望超额兑现65%的分 红承诺；集团新领导上任后，公司各业务加速推进，利好公司长远发展；收购集团资产有利于增强公司 煤电化运 ...

Group 1 - The Tianhong CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) closed down 0.20% on September 30, with a trading volume of 34.36 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on August 20, 2025, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of September 29, the latest share count for the ETF was 344 million shares, with a total size of 336 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The ETF's recent trading activity shows a cumulative trading amount of 943 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily trading amount of 47.14 million yuan [1] - The current fund manager is He Yuxuan, who has managed the fund since its inception, with a return of -3.47% during the management period [1] - The ETF's major holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, China Foreign Transport, China Petroleum, CITIC Bank, CNOOC, China Shenhua Energy, China Pacific Insurance, China Unicom, and Agricultural Bank of China, with respective holding percentages [2]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國神華能源股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月30日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01088 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,377,482,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 3,377,482,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,377,482,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 3,377,482,000 | ...

Group 1 - The investment opportunities arising from state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform are significant and may lead to a sector-wide effect [1] - China Shenhua's announcement of a trillion-yuan asset acquisition is likely a top-down initiative reflecting the central government's intent [1] - The rapid energy system consolidation in Henan Province exceeds market expectations and represents a major step in SOE reform [1] Group 2 - Electricity consumption in August has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.6%, compared to only 2.5% in Q1, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - In August, the output of industrial raw coal was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while production increased by 10 million tons compared to July [1] - The total coal production for the year is expected to remain stable at 475-480 million tons, with a slight decline in H2 due to "overproduction checks" [1] Group 3 - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 713 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the previous week [2] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1710 yuan/ton, up 6.2% from the previous week, indicating a rebound in the coking coal market [2] - The average daily iron output has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong despite the seasonal downturn [2]