产量核查约束供给，非电需求韧性足 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 8 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 产量核查约束供给，非电需求韧性足 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 17 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The coal production in July 2025 reached a new low since May 2001, indicating a "reversal, not a rebound" in the market [1] - The report emphasizes that while coal production is expected to grow in 2025, the growth rate is projected to narrow to approximately 1.4% [1] - The report highlights the importance of government policies in stabilizing coal supply and prices, suggesting that recent measures could lead to a price bottoming out [4][33] Production Summary - In July 2025, the industrial raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average production of 12.29 million tons [1][11] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total industrial raw coal production was 2.78 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1][11] - The forecast for total thermal coal production in 2025 is around 3.88 billion tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [1][11] Import Summary - In July 2025, coal imports were 35.609 million tons, a decrease of 22.9% compared to the same month last year [1][14] - For the first seven months of 2025, total coal imports were 257.305 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.0% [1][14] - The expected total thermal coal import level for 2025 is projected to be around 38 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year [1][14] Demand Summary - In July 2025, the industrial power generation reached 926.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2][17] - The growth rate of industrial thermal power generation was 4.3%, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to June [2][17] - Solar power generation saw a significant increase of 28.7% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in growth [2][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong performance elasticity like Lu'an Mining and Jinneng Holding [4][33] - The report also highlights the potential of companies undergoing asset restructuring, such as Anyuan Coal Industry, and those with promising future growth like Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy [4][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is set to enhance its competitiveness through the acquisition of high-quality assets from the National Energy Group, which will resolve industry competition issues and improve its asset scale and profitability [6] - The acquisition will significantly increase the company's resource reserves and core business capacity, optimizing its entire industry chain layout and supporting its goal of becoming a world-class comprehensive energy company [6] - The announcement of a mid-term profit distribution for 2025 reflects the company's confidence in its long-term development and commitment to shareholder returns [6] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 54.34 billion, 55.98 billion, and 56.06 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.73, 13.33, and 13.31 [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to be 338.38 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline of 1.37% compared to the previous year, followed by a further decline in 2025 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 58.67 billion CNY in 2024, decreasing by 1.71% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery in subsequent years [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.95 CNY in 2024, decreasing to 2.73 CNY in 2025, and stabilizing at 2.82 CNY in 2026 and 2027 [2] Asset Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire 100% stakes in several subsidiaries from the National Energy Group, including power generation and coal mining assets, which will enhance its operational capabilities [6] - The total assets of the acquired entities are estimated to be 258.36 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 125.99 billion CNY and a net profit of 8.01 billion CNY for 2024 [6] Market Positioning - The asset injection is expected to solidify the company's position as a leading global comprehensive energy company, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [6] - The company aims to implement a cross-industry and cross-sector vertical integration development model, further strengthening its market presence [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's acquisition of assets from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Investment Corporation, aims to create a strategic synergy effect of "1+1>2" by addressing industry competition, enhancing resource reserves, optimizing industrial layout, and improving overall competitiveness and risk resistance [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The transaction involves 13 target companies across various sectors including coal, coal-fired power, coal chemical, and logistics services [1]. - The restructuring is expected to resolve issues of industry competition and enhance the company's core competitiveness and sustainable profitability [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Alignment - The acquisition aligns with national energy security strategies by consolidating resources from strategic bases in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi, thereby improving supply stability and emergency response capabilities [3]. - This move is also a significant step in capital market reform, enhancing asset quality and scale efficiency through the integration of high-quality coal and related assets [3][5]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The restructuring is seen as a strong measure to promote orderly development and healthy competition within the energy sector, providing a replicable reform path for state-owned enterprises [5]. - It is expected to facilitate the transition of traditional energy companies towards greener and smarter operations, aligning with national carbon reduction goals [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - The target assets are projected to have a total asset value of 258.36 billion and a net profit of 8.01 billion for the year 2024, with a weighted average return on equity of 10.45% [8]. - China Shenhua has a strong dividend history, with cumulative cash dividends reaching 491.9 billion and an average payout ratio exceeding 60% [9]. - The company plans to distribute at least 65% of its net profit as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027, with a commitment to increase the frequency of dividends [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's acquisition of assets from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Investment Corporation, aims to create a strategic synergy effect of "1+1>2" by enhancing resource reserves, optimizing industry layout, and improving overall competitiveness and risk resistance [1][2][3] Group 1: Strategic Objectives - The transaction aligns with national energy security strategies and capital market reforms, focusing on strengthening coal supply capabilities through the integration of strategic resource bases and logistics assets [2] - The restructuring is expected to enhance the company's capital strength and profitability, creating greater value for shareholders [2][3] - The acquisition addresses industry competition issues and promotes orderly development and healthy competition within the energy sector [3] Group 2: Asset and Financial Performance - The targeted assets have a total asset value of 258.36 billion yuan and a net asset value of 93.89 billion yuan, with projected operating revenue of 125.996 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.005 billion yuan for 2024 [5][6] - The average return on equity for the targeted assets is estimated at 10.45%, while China Shenhua's return on equity is 13.7% [5] - The company has a strong dividend history, with cumulative cash dividends reaching 491.9 billion yuan and a commitment to distribute at least 65% of net profit as dividends from 2025 to 2027 [6][7] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Post-restructuring, the company aims to enhance its market position and accelerate the transition towards greener and smarter coal industry practices [4] - The integration of high-quality resources is expected to support the company's strategic direction of becoming a leading comprehensive energy company based on coal [3][4] - The company is committed to maintaining dividend stability and increasing earnings per share (EPS) to ensure sustainable returns for investors [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal inventory has decreased year-on-year for the first time, indicating a continuous improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [1] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.77% as of August 15, 2025, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.37% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises was 26.18 million tons as of August 14, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 5.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [2] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market is improving, with significant price increases for thermal coal and potential marginal improvements in the coking coal sector due to environmental factors [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 15, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 670 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [3] - The average daily sales volume of thermal coal increased by 0.6% week-on-week [2] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,630 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [4] - The inventory of coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 5.4% week-on-week [4] Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of methanol in East China was 2,354.55 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 38.86 CNY/ton [5] - The price of urea in Henan was 1,700 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 CNY/ton [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround [6] - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal; and Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [6]

该中期分红方案将与2025年半年度报告一并提交董事会审议，并经股东大会批准后实施。公司表示，此 举旨在落实监管要求，增强股东回报，传递发展信心。 经济观察网中国神华（601088）能源股份有限公司8月16日发布公告称，于2025年6月20日股东大会审议 通过《2025-2027年度股东回报规划》，承诺在符合公司章程的情况下，每年现金分红比例不低于归属 于股东净利润的65%。同时，公司拟实施2025年中期分红，分配金额不低于上半年归母净利润的75%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua is planning a major restructuring by acquiring 13 companies across various sectors, which is expected to enhance its resource reserves and optimize its industrial layout [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The restructuring involves the acquisition of 100% stakes in multiple companies, including Guoyuan Power, Xinjiang Energy, and Huagong Company, among others [1] - The company will issue A-shares and pay cash to finance these acquisitions, while also raising funds from no more than 35 specific investors [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - The total assets of the acquired companies are estimated to be 258.36 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 93.89 billion yuan as of the end of 2024 [2] - The projected revenue for the acquired assets in 2024 is 125.996 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit of 8.005 billion yuan [2] - After excluding long-term asset impairment losses, the adjusted non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 9.811 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua is set to resume trading with a significant acquisition of 13 energy companies, valued at 258.3 billion yuan, enhancing its position in the coal industry and logistics network [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes key assets such as the Xinjiang Zhudong open-pit mine (35 million tons/year), Hongshaquan mine (30 million tons/year), and Heishan mine (16 million tons/year), significantly boosting coal production capacity [3] - The logistics network is strengthened by controlling major ports like Huanghua, Tianjin, and Zhuhai, along with a fleet of 62 cargo ships, facilitating efficient coal transportation [3] - The coal-electricity integration model, exemplified by Guoyuan Power's net profit of 2.79 billion yuan and Shenyuan Coal's 2.55 billion yuan, enhances profitability by reducing transportation costs [3] Group 2: Long-term Strategy - The restructuring aims to eliminate internal competition within the group, allowing for streamlined operations and increased synergy [4] - The company is set to increase production capacity by 280 million tons, representing a 74.5% increase, while also controlling the entire supply chain from mining to sales [5] - The restructured Shenhua is positioned as a key player in national energy security, capable of 24-hour coal dispatch across regions [6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The company has announced a mid-term dividend policy of at least 75% of net profit, with projected dividends of 0.89-0.97 yuan per share, indicating strong cash flow [7] - The acquisition price of 30.38 yuan per share represents a 19% discount compared to the pre-suspension price, suggesting potential upside if integration is successful [7] - Short-term risks include concerns over potential dilution of earnings per share and fluctuations in coal prices, which could impact profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (601088) announced a significant restructuring plan involving the acquisition of 100% equity in 10 companies held by its controlling shareholder, China Energy Investment Group, and additional stakes in Shenyan Coal and Jinshen Energy, along with a cash purchase of Inner Mongolia Construction Investment from Western Energy [1][3][4] Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves the acquisition of 13 target companies across various sectors including coal, pit coal power, and coal chemical industries [1][3] - The total assets of the target companies are estimated at 258.36 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 93.89 billion yuan as of the end of 2024 [3][4] - The expected revenue for the target assets in 2024 is projected to be 125.99 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.01 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The restructuring aims to enhance the asset scale and profitability of China Shenhua, while improving corporate governance and protecting the rights of all shareholders, especially minority shareholders [4][5] - The integration of core assets will significantly improve the company's resource reserves and core business capacity, optimizing the entire industry chain layout [4][5] - Following the transaction, China Shenhua is expected to strengthen its integrated operational advantages and solidify its position as a leading global comprehensive energy company [5] Group 3: Profit Distribution Plan - China Shenhua plans to distribute profits for the mid-term of 2025, with the distribution amount being no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [7][8] - The estimated net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 23.6 billion yuan and 25.6 billion yuan [8]