Group 1 - The core view is that the Hong Kong residential market is expected to bottom out in mid-2025, with a recovery anticipated to strengthen in 2026, extending to CBD offices and high-end retail sectors [1] - Residential prices in Hong Kong are projected to rise by 5% to 10% in 2026 and by an additional 5% in 2027 [1] - The valuation of the sector has normalized, leading to a moderate expected increase in prices, with an average target price increase of 8% reflecting stronger residential price outlook and a 50 basis points reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] Group 2 - The company is optimistic about the potential for profit rebound driven by market recovery over the next three years, particularly favoring "buy" ratings for Cheung Kong Property (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101) [1] - The company maintains a "underperform" rating for MTR Corporation (00066) due to low likelihood of significant dividend increases amid substantial capital expenditure plans [1] - Key stocks with potential catalysts in Q1 include Hang Lung Properties, which is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and increase share buybacks by at least $200 million, and Kowloon Development (01997), which is projected to see a 7% dividend growth in FY2025 supported by declining HIBOR and rising excess rents [1][2] Group 3 - The company believes that profit rebound will be crucial for further revaluation of the sector, with Hang Chi Properties expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record significant profit rebound in FY2026 [2] - Overall, Cheung Kong and Kerry Properties (00683) are expected to lead the profit rebound for developers from FY2025 to FY2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are anticipated to lead profit growth for owners during the same period [2]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 239.99 points, a rise of 0.9%, closing at 26,848.47 points [1] - The total turnover for the day on the main board was HKD 315.92 billion [1] - The National Enterprises Index rose by 65.33 points, closing at 9,285.41 points, with a gain of 0.71% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a slight increase of 6.59 points, closing at 5,869.79 points, reflecting a gain of 0.11% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings rose by 0.72%, closing at HKD 627.5 [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing increased by 1.31%, closing at HKD 431.8 [1] - China Mobile decreased by 0.25%, closing at HKD 80.95 [1] - HSBC Holdings rose by 1.85%, closing at HKD 126.4 [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings fell by 0.19%, closing at HKD 42.56 [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties increased by 1.22%, closing at HKD 107.9 [1] - Henderson Land Development rose by 2.99%, closing at HKD 31.72 [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China increased by 0.9%, closing at HKD 4.48 [1] - China Construction Bank rose by 1.17%, closing at HKD 7.81 [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.96%, closing at HKD 6.3 [1] - Ping An Insurance rose by 2.19%, closing at HKD 70 [1] - China Life Insurance increased by 3.51%, closing at HKD 33 [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - Sinopec increased by 0.65%, closing at HKD 4.65 [1] - PetroChina rose by 1.36%, closing at HKD 8.22 [1] - CNOOC increased by 2.58%, closing at HKD 21.48 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to enter a clear upward cycle this year, with new and recently launched properties leading the market [1] Economic Factors - The economic growth momentum in Hong Kong is solidifying, creating a positive feedback loop between the stock and real estate markets, with sustained demand from high-net-worth individuals [1] - The talent policy incentives from mainland China are driving mainland buyers into the market, alongside a "supply exceeds rental" effect, leading to a significant increase in demand for purchasing properties [1] Interest Rates and Affordability - The global interest rate reduction cycle is clear, with anticipated cuts in the US dollar interest rates directly lowering mortgage costs in Hong Kong, significantly enhancing housing affordability [1] - The current rent-to-sale ratio is at a 10-year high, and the low-interest environment further strengthens the investment appeal of properties, effectively stimulating demand for property upgrades [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new private residential properties continues to tighten, accelerating the pace of inventory reduction, and shifting the supply-demand relationship from loose to balanced, providing strong support for rising property prices [1] Price Expectations - In light of the three core factors, the price increase expectation for the real estate market has been adjusted from 5% to a range of 5% to 10% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Sector - The firm is most optimistic about the residential market, predicting that property prices, which have fallen by 30% since 2018, will bottom out by 2025 and rise by 10% in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, which has doubled to 140,000 annually post-pandemic compared to 70,000 from 2012 to 2019, is contributing to positive population growth [1]. - A strong stock market performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Sector - Despite high vacancy rates, the market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Sector - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year this year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the ongoing rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, which pose challenges to the retail market [2]. - The expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China is also viewed as a potential pressure point for Hong Kong's retail sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate sector to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Market - The residential property market is viewed as the most promising, with prices having dropped 30% since 2018 and expected to bottom out by 2025, followed by a projected 10% increase in 2026 and further growth in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, reaching 140,000 annually post-pandemic, has doubled compared to the 70,000 per year from 2012 to 2019, contributing to positive population growth [1]. - The strong performance of the stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Market - Despite high vacancy rates, the office market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Market - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the continuous rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, as well as potential pressure from the expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China [2].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development (00016) and Henderson Land (00012) being top picks, increasing their target prices from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - Cheung Kong Property (01113) is also among the preferred stocks, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1] - The firm anticipates a 10% increase in residential property prices this year, driven by increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 2 - Strong rental performance is expected due to talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, with a projected rental growth of 5% this year [1] - The wealth effect generated by the rise in the Hang Seng Index is also expected to support property prices [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development (00016) and Henderson Land (00012) being top picks, increasing their target prices from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving "Overweight" ratings [1] - Cheung Kong Holdings (01113) is also among the preferred stocks, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1] - The firm expects residential property prices to rise by 10% this year, driven by increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 2 - Strong rental performance is anticipated due to talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, which will stimulate further investment demand; rental growth is expected to be 5% this year [1] - The wealth effect generated by the rise in the Hang Seng Index is also expected to support property prices [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development (00016) and Henderson Land Development (00012) being top picks, increasing their target prices from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving "Overweight" ratings [1] - Cheung Kong Holdings (01113) is also a preferred choice, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1] - The firm expects residential property prices to rise by 10% this year, driven by increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 2 - Strong rental performance is anticipated due to talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, which will stimulate further investment demand, with rental growth expected to be 5% this year [1] - The wealth effect generated by the rise in the Hang Seng Index is also expected to support property prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong residential property prices to rise by 10% this year due to increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 1: Property Market Outlook - The anticipated increase in residential property prices is supported by strong rental performance driven by talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, which in turn stimulates more investment demand [1] - Rental prices are projected to grow by 5% this year, further enhancing the attractiveness of the property market [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Morgan Stanley has raised target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development and Henderson Land Development being top picks, having their target prices increased from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving "Overweight" ratings [1] - Cheung Kong Property is also among the preferred stocks, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 長江實業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01113 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 8,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 8,000,000, ...