Core Insights - The gaming stocks have collectively risen, with Sands China up 5.04%, Wynn Macau up 4.6%, Melco International Development up 4.45%, and Galaxy Entertainment up 3.94% [1] Industry Summary - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 5% respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The brokerage anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% in the next two years, reaching 119% and 126% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue is projected to increase by 19% in 2025 but decrease by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Company Insights - Huatai Securities notes that despite temporary disruptions from typhoons during the National Day holiday and late September, the number of visitors to Macau has met government expectations and exceeded levels from the same period in 2019 when excluding weather impacts [1] - The daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showed a slight year-on-year increase [1] - Key drivers for the sector post-holiday include policies like "one permit, multiple entries" between Zhuhai and Macau, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks collectively rose, with Sands China increasing by 5.04% to HKD 18.98, Wynn Macau up by 4.6% to HKD 6.59, Melco International Development rising by 4.45% to HKD 4.69, and Galaxy Entertainment gaining 3.94% to HKD 38.48 [1] - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting total gaming revenue to grow by 9% and 5% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The firm anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 119% and 126% of 2019 levels, while VIP gaming revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2025 and decline by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities estimates that the number of visitors to Macau, after excluding weather impacts, aligns with government expectations and exceeds levels from the same period in 2019, with daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - The core drivers for the gaming sector post-holiday include policy benefits from the "one permit, multiple entries" scheme, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Wynn Macau (01128.HK) increased by nearly 4% on October 20, reaching a price of 6.54 HKD per share [1] - As of the report, the stock was up 3.81% with a trading volume of 30.22 million HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has issued a "Buy" rating for Wynn Macau, setting a target price of HKD 7.2, which corresponds to an estimated enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of approximately 7.3 times for 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Wynn Macau's stock has increased nearly 4%, currently trading at HKD 6.54 with a transaction volume of HKD 30.22 million [1] - Despite a continuous decline in market share since 2025, Citigroup believes that the completion of the "Chairman's Club" VIP gaming area expansion in the first quarter of next year will positively impact the company's performance [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market generally anticipates a year-on-year EBITDA growth of about 7% for Macau gaming operators in the third quarter of this year [1] - Citigroup projects that Wynn's EBITDA may increase by 17% year-on-year during the same period, indicating a potential outperformance compared to the market [1] - Wynn Macau has been placed on Citigroup's 30-day upward catalyst watchlist, suggesting that positive stock price momentum may occur around the time of the company's earnings announcement next month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's stock has seen an increase of nearly 4%, currently trading at HKD 6.54, with a trading volume of HKD 30.22 million. Citigroup has issued a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 7.2, reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of approximately 7.3 times for 2026 [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Citigroup is optimistic about Wynn Macau's increasing investment in the high-end mass gaming segment, despite a continuous decline in market share since 2025 [1]. - The completion of the "Chairman's Club" VIP gaming area expansion in the first quarter of next year is expected to positively impact Wynn's market position [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The market generally anticipates a year-on-year EBITDA growth of about 7% for Macau gaming operators in the third quarter of this year, while Citigroup forecasts a 17% year-on-year increase for Wynn during the same period [1]. - Wynn Macau has been placed on Citigroup's 30-day upward catalyst watchlist, suggesting potential positive stock price momentum ahead of the company's earnings announcement next month [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a general decline in gaming stocks, with specific companies experiencing notable drops in share prices [1] - According to HSBC Global Research, Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 12 days of October was 9.65 billion MOP, with an average daily revenue of 593 million MOP in the second week, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% and a week-on-week decline of 46%, which is higher than the historical average decline of 39% [1] - Citigroup has revised its forecast for October's total gaming revenue down from 23 billion MOP to 22 billion MOP, which is approximately 83% of October 2019 levels and represents a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Group 2 - The slowdown in overall gaming revenue growth in Macau suggests limited short-term upside potential for gaming stocks, despite potential support from a low base in December for Q4 revenue growth [1] - Specific declines in stock prices include Melco International Development down 3.21% to 4.53 HKD, Suncity Group Holdings down 2.56% to 0.76 HKD, Sands China down 1.65% to 17.93 HKD, and Wynn Macau down 1.56% to 6.3 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks in Macau are experiencing a decline, with significant drops in share prices for major companies, attributed to a slowdown in gaming revenue growth [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New World Development (00200) decreased by 3.21%, trading at HKD 4.53 [1] - Suncity Group Holdings (01180) fell by 2.56%, trading at HKD 0.76 [1] - Sands China (01928) dropped by 1.65%, trading at HKD 17.93 [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) declined by 1.56%, trading at HKD 6.3 [1] Group 2: Revenue Insights - The total gaming revenue (GGR) for Macau in the first 12 days of October was MOP 9.65 billion, with an average daily revenue of MOP 593 million for the second week of October [1] - Year-on-year, the daily revenue decreased by 8%, and week-on-week, it fell by 46%, which is slightly above the historical average decline of 39% [1] Group 3: Future Projections - HSBC Global Research suggests that despite a low base in December, the short-term upside for gaming stocks is limited due to the slowdown in total gaming revenue growth [1] - Citigroup revised its estimate for total gaming revenue in October from MOP 23 billion to MOP 22 billion, which is approximately 83% of the revenue from October 2019, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [1]

该行略微下调今年的博彩收入预测至同比增长8%，仍然看好金沙中国(01928)及银河娱乐(00027)，均 予"买入"评级。另外，预期永利澳门(01128)第三季度业绩将超出预期，或在短期内为其股价带来正面 动力。 高盛发布研报称，10月首12日的总博彩收入同比减少5%，较预期为低，对比本月首5日的博彩收入则同 比增加3%。考虑到台风及前往海外国家旅游等因素，该行认为近期正向趋势已经逆转的论调属言之尚 早。该行相信11及12月至明年2月的同比比较基础仍相当有利。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, while the revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent positive trend in gaming revenue has reversed, but it is too early to make definitive statements due to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The firm slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year increase, while maintaining a positive outlook on Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] Group 2 - Expectations for Wynn Macau (01128) indicate that its third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a 5% year-on-year decrease in total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October, which is lower than expected, while the first 5 days of the month showed a 3% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue Trends - The recent positive trend in gaming revenue is considered premature to declare as reversed, influenced by factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November, December, and February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts and Company Ratings - The gaming revenue forecast for this year has been slightly adjusted to an 8% year-on-year growth, with a positive outlook for Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) is expected to exceed third-quarter performance expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]