花旗目前给予永利"买入"评级，看好其对高端中场分部日益增加的投入，又指出虽然今年以来永利市场 份额持续下降，但相信明年首季永利Chairman's Club贵宾博彩区扩建工程完工后，情况可望改变，予目 标价7.2港元，对应2026年预测企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)约7.3倍。 花旗发表研究报告，将永利澳门列入为期30日的上行催化剂观察名单。目前市场普遍预期澳门博彩营运 商今年第三季EBITDA可按年增长约7%，而该行则预期永利同期EBITDA可能按年上升17%，相信潜在 的跑赢大市表现将能在永利下月初公布业绩前后，转化为积极的股价推动力。 ...

Industry Overview - Despite the impact of a super typhoon in late September, Macau's total gaming revenue for the third quarter reached MOP 62.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, marking the highest quarterly gaming revenue since the post-pandemic reopening [1] - The industry EBITDA for the third quarter is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 2.07 billion [1] Company Insights - Citigroup's top pick is Galaxy Entertainment, maintaining a target price of HKD 54 and a "Buy" rating [1] - Wynn Macau's rating has been upgraded to "Buy," with a target price of HKD 7.2; although the company has lost market share this year due to the lack of new product launches, improvements are anticipated with the completion of the Chairman's Club expansion in the VIP gaming area at Wynn Palace in the first quarter of next year [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks have rebounded after a continuous decline, with Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau rising approximately 3%, while Sands China and Melco International Development increased nearly 2%, and MGM China rose about 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which was lower than expected, but there was a 3% year-on-year increase compared to the first 5 days of the month [1] - The firm believes that the recent reversal of the positive trend is premature, considering factors such as typhoons and overseas travel, and maintains a favorable year-on-year comparison basis for November through February of the following year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year growth, while remaining optimistic about Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, both receiving "buy" ratings [1] - Wynn Macau's third-quarter performance is expected to exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which was lower than expected, while revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Trends - The recent trend reversal is considered premature by Goldman Sachs, attributing it to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November and December through February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts - The firm slightly lowered its annual gaming revenue growth forecast to 8% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, both receiving "buy" ratings [1] Group 3: Company Performance Expectations - Wynn Macau's third-quarter performance is expected to exceed forecasts, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with gaming revenue expected to rise by 12.5%. However, the overall EBITDA margin is anticipated to decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Summary - The gaming industry in Macau is projected to see a year-on-year EBITDA increase of 9% for Q3 [1] - Gaming revenue is expected to grow by 12.5% in the same period [1] - The overall EBITDA margin is expected to decline compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter [1] - For Q4, gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast for this year is 10 times, which is lower than the 15-year average of 12.8 times, potentially allowing Macau gaming stocks to outperform the market [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with gaming revenue expected to rise by 12.5%. However, it anticipates a decline in overall EBITDA margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The gaming revenue in Macau is projected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in Q4 [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast for this year is 10 times, which is lower than the 15-year average of 12.8 times, potentially aiding Macau gaming stocks to outperform the market [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Group 1 - UBS report indicates that Macau's average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) over the past week was 593 million MOP, representing an 8% year-on-year decline and a 46% drop compared to the first five days of the National Day Golden Week, which is weaker than the market expectation of 700 million MOP [1] - The report highlights a significant slowdown in Macau's GGR since the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, despite various events taking place over the past weekend, including the NBA China Games [1] - For the month to date, Macau's average daily GGR is 804 million MOP, down 5% year-on-year, suggesting that the remaining 19 days of the month may see an average daily GGR of 707 million MOP based on market forecasts [1] Group 2 - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA forecast valuation of 8.5 times for next year, which is 0.8 standard deviations below the two-year average [1] - UBS identifies Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment as the preferred stocks within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year growth in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with a 12.5% increase in gaming revenue, but anticipates a decline in overall EBITDA margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Summary - Q3 EBITDA growth is projected at 9% year-on-year [1] - Gaming revenue is expected to rise by 12.5% [1] - Overall EBITDA margin is anticipated to decline compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter [1] - Q4 gaming revenue is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast stands at 10 times, below the 15-year average of 12.8 times, which may help Macau gaming stocks outperform the market [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gaming stocks continue to decline, with Melco International Development down 5%, Sands China down nearly 4%, Galaxy Entertainment down over 3%, MGM China down 2.7%, and Wynn Macau down 1.7% [1] - According to a report by Citi Research, the Macau gaming industry is expected to see a year-on-year EBITDA growth of 10% to $2.063 billion in Q3, driven by a 12.5% year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) [1] - However, adjusted profit margins are expected to be under pressure, with a projected quarterly decline of 0.5 percentage points due to a 33-hour casino shutdown caused by Typhoon Haikui [1] Group 2 - The resilience of gaming revenue post-Golden Week and the reinvestment activities of gaming companies will be key focus areas for the market [1] - The firm has revised its EBITDA forecasts for the industry downwards by 1.4% and 0.5% for this year and next year, respectively, anticipating a 7% year-on-year increase in industry EBITDA to $8.2 billion for this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Wynn Macau (01128) significantly increased its market share in September, rising approximately 200 basis points month-over-month, contributing to a quarterly increase of 150 basis points in Q3 [1] Company Summaries - Wynn Macau (01128) saw a notable rise in market share, with a month-over-month increase of about 200 basis points and a quarterly increase of 150 basis points [1] - SJM Holdings (00880) experienced a month-over-month market share increase of approximately 50 basis points in September, but a decline of 30 basis points in Q3 [1] - Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) reported a month-over-month decline in market share of about 100 basis points and 150 basis points respectively in September, although both saw quarterly increases of approximately 70 basis points and 40 basis points [1] - Melco Resorts (MLCO.US) and MGM China (02282) maintained stable market shares in September, but both experienced quarterly declines of 120 basis points and 100 basis points respectively [1] - Compared to market expectations, the market shares of Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau exceeded expectations, while those of MGM, Sands China, and SJM Holdings fell short [1]