Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The IMF has lowered the global economic growth rate forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, and trade policy uncertainty will disrupt the global supply chain. The Fed may be cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, while the ECB may end the easing cycle. China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year [4]. - In terms of supply, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to be only 1.7% in 2025 and further decline to 1.4% in 2026. The global refined copper supply growth rate will drop to 2% in 2025. In the second half of the year, domestic small and medium - sized smelters may face production cut risks, and the release of new global refined copper production capacity will be significantly limited [4]. - In terms of demand, copper has become a key strategic reserve resource in the context of global AI and electrification transformation. The global refined copper consumption growth rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2025, and the domestic growth rate will be 3.4% [4]. - The copper price center is expected to continue to rise in the second half of this year, with the risk of periodic high - level corrections due to overseas macro disturbances. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The main operating range of SHFE copper is expected to be 77,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is 9,500 - 10,500 US dollars/ton [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the First - Half Market in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, copper prices showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the first quarter, SHFE copper rose from a low of 73,000 to 83,000 due to supply concerns and macro - economic factors. In the second quarter, prices fluctuated due to trade policy uncertainties, and then rebounded after the Sino - US trade negotiation [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased. The spot premium changed from discount to premium. In the second half of the year, domestic refined copper spot premium is expected to remain in the premium range, with the center of premium moving up [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Global Trade Situation Eases, and the US Economy Faces Stagflation Risks - The IMF has lowered the economic growth forecasts of major economies in 2025. The Sino - US trade negotiation has reached a preliminary consensus, but the tariff measures after the 90 - day suspension period are uncertain. The US economy has the risk of stagflation, while the eurozone economy shows a weak recovery [15][16]. 2.2 The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise, and the ECB May Slow Down the Rate - Cutting Pace - The Fed may have 1 - 2 small interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting in September. The ECB cut interest rates in June. The future monetary policies of both central banks will be affected by trade policies and economic data [17][19]. 2.3 Strengthen the Domestic Circulation System, and the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Remains Moderately Loose - China's economy faced challenges in the first half of the year. The central bank implemented a series of measures to support the economy. China's economy showed resilience in the first half, and the economic structure is expected to continue to optimize in the second half [21][22]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis 3.1 The Global Concentrate Shortage Exceeds Expectations, and Chinese Enterprises Actively Explore Copper Ore Resources - In the first half of 2025, both Chinese and foreign capital accelerated the development of copper resources. However, the output of major mines was affected by various factors, and the shortage of copper concentrates is expected to exceed market expectations in 2025 - 2026 [25][27]. 3.2 The Global Copper Concentrate Growth Rate in 2025 is Expected to Drop to 1.7% - The planned global copper ore supply increment in 2025 is 115.5 million tons, but the actual increment is expected to be 70 - 80 million tons, with a growth rate dropping to 3%. Considering major interference factors, the actual supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.7% and further decline in 2026 [31][33]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis 4.1 Domestic Refined Copper Production Will Slow Down in the Second Half of the Year, and the Annual Year - on - Year Growth Rate May Drop to 4.5% - In the first half of 2025, domestic refined copper output was high, but more than 30% of smelters cut production to some extent. The actual output increment may be significantly lower than expected, and the annual growth rate is expected to slow down to 4.5% [41][43]. 4.2 The Release of Overseas Refined Copper Production in 2025 is Very Slow - Overseas new refined copper smelting capacity in 2025 is only 62 million tons, and the actual output is quite limited. The actual increment is expected to be about 15 million tons [45][46]. 4.3 Refined Copper Imports Will Remain at a Low Level in the Second Half of the Year, and Copper Has Become a Strategic Resource in the Great - Power Game - From January to May 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain at 25 - 28 million tons per month, and the annual imports will drop significantly compared with last year [48][49]. 4.4 Domestic Scrap Copper Supply is Generally Stable, and Southeast Asia May Fill the Gap in US Scrap Copper Imports - From January to May 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, with Southeast Asian imports filling the gap left by the US [66][69]. 4.5 LME Inventories Plummeted by More Than 70% in the First Half of the Year, and the Tight - Balance Reality Has Lowered the Global Inventory Center - As of June 27, global visible inventories decreased significantly. LME inventories are at a low level with a risk of squeezing, while COMEX inventories are rising. Domestic inventories are expected to remain low in the second half of the year [73][75]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis 5.1 This Year's Grid Investment Scale is Expected to Exceed 800 Billion, and the New UHV Grid System is Upgrading at an Accelerated Pace - The planned grid investment in 2025 is expected to reach 825 billion, with an increase of 220 billion compared with 2024. The copper consumption growth rate in grid investment is expected to be 3 - 4% [77]. 5.2 The Real Estate Market is Bottoming Out, and the Real Estate Regulation Policies are Intensifying - The real estate market showed a decline in the first five months of 2025, but the price decline margin narrowed. The market is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, with a slight decline in copper consumption growth rate [78][80]. 5.3 The "Two New" Policies Drive the Accelerated Production and Sales of Air - Conditioners - From January to May 2025, air - conditioner production and sales increased year - on - year. However, due to various factors, the production scale may be adjusted in the third quarter, and the export may decline [81][82].

Core Insights - The data indicates significant trading volume increases for various companies, suggesting heightened investor interest and potential market movements [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Companies with Notable Volume Increases - 阳光能源 (00757) reported a volume ratio of 2.35, indicating strong trading activity [2] - 长城汽车 (02333) had a volume ratio of 2.21, reflecting increased investor engagement [2] - 郑煤机 (00564) showed a volume ratio of 1.92, suggesting a notable rise in trading [2] Group 2: Additional Companies with Increased Trading Activity - 万国数据-SW (09698) recorded a volume ratio of 1.83, indicating significant market interest [2] - 映恩生物-B (09606) had a volume ratio of 1.78, reflecting heightened trading activity [2] - 超盈国际控股 (02111) reported a volume ratio of 1.71, suggesting increased investor focus [2] Group 3: Companies with Moderate Volume Ratios - 中国能源建设 (03996) had a volume ratio of 1.70, indicating a solid level of trading activity [2] - 亚信科技 (01675) reported a volume ratio of 1.60, reflecting moderate investor interest [2] - 金宝通 (00320) showed a volume ratio of 1.53, suggesting a rise in trading volume [2] Group 4: Companies with Lower Volume Ratios - 中国水务 (00855) had a volume ratio of 1.52, indicating stable trading activity [2] - 广汽集团 (02238) reported a volume ratio of 1.52, reflecting consistent investor engagement [2] - 凯莱英 (06821) showed a volume ratio of 1.52, suggesting steady trading interest [2]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Protests by small-scale mining operators in Peru have disrupted copper transportation, leading to a significant impact on the supply chain [1] - Copper prices have increased by 2.7% this week and nearly 14% since the beginning of the year, approaching historical highs due to rising demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [1] - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 4% respectively, citing a recovery in demand driven by traditional markets in Europe and the US [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Citic Securities notes that the copper market remains in a tight balance, with limited CAPEX and declining TC/RC fees, while economic stability in China and a soft landing in the US support copper prices [3] - UBS's optimistic outlook on copper prices is supported by favorable supply dynamics and long-term demand drivers, despite potential slowdowns in end-user demand due to tariff uncertainties [2] - Citic Securities predicts copper prices could rise to $10,000-$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, contingent on macroeconomic policies and global economic recovery [3] Group 3: Key Companies in the Copper Sector - Notable copper resource companies listed in Hong Kong include Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), Minmetals Resources (01208), and Jiangxi Copper (00358) [4]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140/ton to $9,890/ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 in August [1] - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill and a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index contributed to the copper price increase [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - U.S. tariffs on copper, set at 25%, led to a significant reduction in LME copper inventory, with Asian warehouse stocks dropping from 200,000 tons to 60,000 tons, a decrease of 70% [2] - LME European inventory also saw a sharp decline of 44% in June, nearing multi-year lows [2] - The global copper inventory is under pressure due to increased demand and supply chain disruptions [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - China accounts for approximately 50% of global copper consumption, with increasing investments in power grids and infrastructure driving demand [2] - The rise in electric vehicle penetration is expected to further boost copper consumption in the future [2] - Recent PMI data from China indicates stable internal and external demand, supporting copper prices [2] Group 4: Company Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase, aiming for 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [3] - Zijin Mining has confirmed copper reserves of 50.43 million tons, with production targets of 1.07 million tons in 2024 and 1.15 million tons in 2025 [3] - Minmetals Resources, a mid-sized non-ferrous metal mining company, aims for a copper equity output of 265,000 tons in 2024, ranking third among domestic listed companies [3] Group 5: Major Production Highlights - Jiangxi Copper, the world's largest single copper smelter, expects to produce 2.29 million tons of cathode copper in 2024, a 9.28% increase [4] - The company plans to increase production to 2.37 million tons in 2025, along with growth in gold and sulfuric acid production [4]

Core Insights - Fidelity China Region Fund has increased its holdings in Pinduoduo ADR for the third consecutive month in May [1] - The fund has completely divested from Zeekr [1] Company Analysis - The continuous increase in Pinduoduo ADR holdings indicates a positive outlook from Fidelity China Region Fund towards the company's performance and growth potential [1] - The decision to clear out Zeekr suggests a strategic shift in investment focus, possibly due to underperformance or a reevaluation of the company's prospects [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.17% at 24,284.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.07% to 5,341.43 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.47% to 8,762.47 points [2] - The automotive, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showed weakness, while the metals sector experienced gains [4] Metals Sector Performance - The metals sector saw significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7%, Tianqi Lithium and Luoyang Molybdenum both increasing over 6%, and Zijin Mining among the top performers [4] - Notable stock performances included Luoyang Molybdenum at 6.26% with a market cap of 191.02 billion, Tianqi Lithium at 6.78% with a market cap of 56.97 billion, and Ganfeng Lithium at 2.74% with a market cap of 69.64 billion [5] Commodity Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to tightening supply in markets outside the U.S. [5] - Ping An Securities reports that the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system will continue to drive precious metal prices higher, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment [5] Automotive Sector Dynamics - Xiaomi Group's stock rose by 3.6%, while major automotive stocks like Xpeng Motors, NIO, and BYD saw declines of 3.17%, 1.84%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the automotive sector may be impacted by Xiaomi's competitive pricing strategy for its new YU7 series, with expectations of monthly sales reaching 60,000 to 80,000 units [7] Banking Sector Trends - Chinese bank stocks experienced slight declines, with Luzhou Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Merchants Bank dropping by 3.49%, 2.91%, and 2.39% respectively [8] - Recent reports indicate that insurance funds have been favoring high-dividend bank stocks, but this trend may be slowing down as investment teams shift focus towards technology innovation board companies [8] Financial Sector Developments - Huaxing Capital Holdings saw a significant intraday rise of nearly 38% before closing up 4.67% at HKD 4.48 per share, following its announcement of a $100 million investment in the Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency asset space [11] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced an increase in position limits for futures and options contracts on major indices, effective July 2, 2025, aimed at enhancing market flexibility [12]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong performance yesterday but faced a quick decline today, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.61% [1] - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index rising 43% recently [1] - Apollo Global's chief economist predicts a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.2% by 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% and unemployment potentially rising to 4.4% or higher [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised by Jerome Powell regarding the reliability of economic data collected by US government agencies, suggesting potential overestimations due to budget cuts [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.2 billion (approximately RMB 86.13 billion) to support the currency, indicating liquidity tightening in the market [2] Sector Performance - The securities sector failed to maintain its upward momentum, with leading firms like Guotai Junan International seeing a drop of over 4% [3] - The Hong Kong government announced a new policy to promote digital assets, aiming to position the city as a global innovation hub in this field [3] - Consumer sectors are gaining attention, with the "Hong Kong Happy Shopping Festival" set to offer over HKD 1.9 billion in discounts, attracting significant participation from brands [5] Company Developments - Rongchang Bio announced a deal with VorBio for USD 125 million in cash and warrants, but the market reacted negatively, viewing the price as too low [4] - Li Ning's major shareholder has been increasing their stake, which is expected to support the company's operational stability [8] - Li Ning's revenue from running products is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, with core categories like running, basketball, and training accounting for 64% of retail revenue [9] Stock Movements - Stocks in the aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased ticket bookings for the summer travel season, with domestic bookings up about 5% year-on-year [7] - The military sector saw gains following comments from Trump regarding potential conflicts, with companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and AVIC rising over 6% and 1.68% respectively [6] - The weakening US dollar has led to a rise in commodity stocks, with companies like Minmetals Resources and China Hongqiao seeing increases of over 4% [5]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Global Research has raised the target price for China Molybdenum (01208.HK) by 18.5% to HKD 3.2, while downgrading the rating from Buy to Hold due to copper price downside risks and lack of dividends [1] Group 1: Target Price Adjustment - The target price for China Molybdenum has been increased from HKD 2.7 to HKD 3.2, reflecting a 18.5% rise [1] - The stock price has increased over 30% in the past month, indicating positive developments in the copper industry and improved profit outlook for the group [1] Group 2: Rating Change and Market Conditions - HSBC believes the current valuation of the stock is reasonable, leading to the downgrade of the rating from Buy to Hold [1] - Despite potential increases in copper prices, HSBC sees limited upside for the stock price, while downside risks are intensifying [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the copper industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the production growth of overseas large copper mining companies is low, and there are frequent disruptions. The lack of new large copper mining projects in the coming years will continue to constrain copper supply [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Production in Major Producing Countries - Chile's copper production from January to April 2025 reached 1.752 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.57% (+60,300 tons). The growth is primarily driven by the Escondida project due to higher mining intensity and improved ore grades. Peru's copper production during the same period was 892,000 metric tons, up 5.59% (+47,200 tons), with significant contributions from the Las Bambas and Toromocho mines [4][18]. 2. Overseas Copper Mining Companies' Production - The total copper production of 15 major copper mining companies in Q1 2025 was 3.012 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1% (+3,000 tons). However, excluding three Chinese companies, the production of 12 overseas companies fell by 3.79% (-96,100 tons) to 2.436 million tons. Notably, Freeport and Glencore experienced significant declines of 20% and 29.95%, respectively [5][9]. 3. Growth in Chinese Copper Mining Companies - Three Chinese companies reported substantial production increases in Q1 2025: Minmetals Resources (+76.1%), Zijin Mining (+9.5%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (+15.7%). The growth for Minmetals was largely attributed to the Las Bambas mine in Peru, which produced 95,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70.9% (+39,700 tons) [7]. 4. Future Project Developments - The report notes a scarcity of new or expanded copper mining projects. The Salvador project by Codelco is currently ramping up production, while First Quantum's Kansanshi expansion is expected to contribute additional capacity starting in H2 2025. Other long-term projects include Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi and Antofagasta's Centinela Phase II, with expected production increases in the coming years [8]. 5. Production Summary of Major Companies - Codelco's Q1 2025 production was 324,000 tons, a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year. BHP's total production was 513,200 tons, up 10.18%, primarily due to the Escondida mine. Freeport's production fell to 393,720 tons, down 20% year-on-year, while Glencore's production dropped to 167,900 tons, a decrease of 29.95% [47][54][60][69].