行业要闻： 投资观点： 本文由投资顾问 ： 何威 ——A1290622100002 撰写 "分享的题材方向和题材的研报，旨在为您梳理选股方向，您可以加自选关注，但是不构成投资建议， 不作为买卖依据，您应当基于审慎原则自行参考，如据此操作，风险自担！" 市场行情回顾：截止到11月28日周五收市：上周上证指数1.40%，报3888.6点；沪深300指数1.64%，报 4526.66点；SW有色金属行业指数3.37%，报7396.64点。分子行业来看，上周有色金属行业5个二级子 行业中，工业金属、贵金属、小金属、能源金属、金属新材料较上周变动幅度分别为3.46%、4.86%、 4.20%、0.91%、4.49%。 参考文献：银河证券 华立 孙雪琪 2025-12-02 有色金属行业周报：美联储降息预期再升温，矿冶博弈刺 激铜价上涨 重点金属价格数据：上周上期所铜、铝、锌、铅、镍、锡分别收于87,430元/吨、21,610元/吨、22,425 元/吨、17,090元/吨、117,080元/吨、305,040元/吨，较上周变动幅度分别为1.66%、 0.68%、-0.31%、-0.64%、1.99%、4.19%。上周上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper industry stocks continue to rise, driven by supply-demand dynamics and strategic decisions by key industry players [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 3.78%, reaching HKD 8.24 - China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) rose by 2.97%, reaching HKD 0.104 - Jiangxi Copper (00358) saw a 1.98% increase, reaching HKD 33.94 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) grew by 0.97%, reaching HKD 16.68 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has agreed to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% in 2026 to improve the supply-demand fundamentals [1] - CSPT aims to maintain the Benchmark system and strengthen direct cooperation with mines while resisting unreasonable pricing models from traders [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to a report from Galaxy Securities, the tight supply of copper ore and potential production cuts from smelting companies may lead to a more acute shortage of refined copper in 2026 [1] - If production cuts occur at the smelting level, it could further tighten refined copper supply and stimulate price increases [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks continue to rise, with significant increases in share prices for companies such as Minmetals Resources (+3.78% to HKD 8.24), China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (+2.97% to HKD 0.104), Jiangxi Copper (+1.98% to HKD 33.94), and China Nonferrous Mining (+0.97% to HKD 16.68) [1][1][1] - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% in 2026, aiming to improve the supply-demand fundamentals of copper concentrate [1][1][1] - A report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the tight supply of copper ore and potential production cuts from smelting companies may lead to a more pronounced shortage of refined copper in 2026, which could further drive up copper prices [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks continue to rise, driven by supply constraints and strategic decisions from industry players regarding production capacity and pricing models [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 3.78%, reaching HKD 8.24 - China Daye Nonferrous Metals (00661) rose by 2.97%, reaching HKD 0.104 - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares (00358) grew by 1.98%, reaching HKD 33.94 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) saw an increase of 0.97%, reaching HKD 16.68 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% for the 2026 fiscal year, aiming to improve the supply-demand fundamentals of copper concentrate [1] - CSPT plans to maintain the Benchmark system and strengthen direct cooperation with mines while resisting unreasonable pricing models from traders [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to a report from Galaxy Securities, the ongoing tight supply of copper ore and potential production cuts from smelting companies may lead to a more pronounced shortage of refined copper in 2026, which could further drive up copper prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, inventory and price trends, and giving corresponding investment suggestions for each metal. 3. Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Market sentiment is bullish for the medium - long term, with high enthusiasm for long - term copper market allocation. In Q1 2026, major mines are difficult to resume production significantly, and lower long - term processing fees lead to reduced smelting capacity, increasing downward pressure on global refined copper smelting growth. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising, and the market is concerned about the change of the Japanese yen's interest rate. The manufacturing PMI of major northern - hemisphere economies is in decline at the end of the year [1]. - Domestic supply and demand show that there is no impetus for production increase. The inventory in the Q area has exceeded the peak in the mid - 1990s, and the US has difficulty in quickly digesting it. However, due to the potential of Trump's trade policy, the US is expected to import copper in 2026. The copper price may reach $11,500 - $12,000 in Q1 2026, and the domestic copper price may enter the high - level range of 92,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell at high points in the short - term and hold long positions at 88,000 - 87,800 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina has a significant surplus, with domestic operating capacity at a historical high. It will run weakly until large - scale production reduction occurs, with support at the annual low of 2,600 yuan [2]. - New production capacity is being added. Tian Shan Aluminum's second - phase project will increase production by 120,000 tons this year and another 120,000 tons in the first half of 2026. An overseas joint - venture project in Indonesia is expected to increase production by about 80,000 tons per year and reach a production capacity of 500,000 tons in October next year [2]. - The downstream demand is mixed. The overall开工 rate of downstream leading enterprises has increased by 0.45% to 62.3%, with some automotive - related fields being relatively strong, but the construction industry is still sluggish. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot discount has slightly expanded. The Shanghai aluminum price will continue to oscillate to test the previous high of 22,000 yuan [2]. Zinc - The zinc market has a supply reduction expectation, and the rebound pressure is weakening. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the output of overseas smelters has not increased significantly in Q3. The domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the smelter output is expected to decline by more than 20,000 tons in December [3]. - The consumption growth expectation is insufficient due to the real - estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, and the arrival of the off - season in the north. The Shanghai zinc price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton, with cost support [3]. Lead - The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the lead import window is open. The domestic and foreign lead prices have weakened synchronously. The domestic primary lead supply is tight, while the recycled lead has a situation of simultaneous maintenance and resumption. The lead consumption lacks an incremental expectation [4]. - The cost and consumption are in a game, and the Shanghai lead price will oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan per ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market has rebounded, with the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel prices rising. The inventory of stainless - steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the market sentiment has slightly recovered but lacks sustainability [5]. - The overall supply of the nickel industry chain is increasing, and it is more reasonable to short - sell at high positions [5]. Tin - The tin price has soared, with the London tin approaching $40,000 and the Shanghai tin breaking through the 200,000 - yuan mark. The supply is affected by transportation interruptions in Congo (Kinshasa) and the resumption of production in Myanmar. The consumption highlights are in the semiconductor and automotive integrated - circuit fields [6]. - The inventory level is neutral. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and spot hedging short - sellers should be equipped with hedging strategies [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, with the spot price rising. The downstream production is active, and the total market inventory has decreased. The mining end price is strong [7]. - The overall fundamentals are strong, and short - sellers are at a disadvantage [7]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has a stable upward trend in the range. The supply in the Sichuan - Yunnan region is expected to decrease due to the dry season, and the demand is expected to decrease by about 4,000 tons due to the joint emission - reduction plan of the organic silicon industry [8]. - The social inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 550,000 tons, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short - term [8]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price has increased, with the 2512 contract breaking through 60,000 yuan per ton. The production in November decreased by more than expected, and there is still room for downward adjustment in December. The demand for silicon wafers and components has decreased significantly [9]. - The factory inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons. The exchange has adjusted the speculative margin, and the market sentiment has cooled down [9].

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，近日，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表"就业下行风险增 加，通胀上行风险减弱，近期内存在进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间"的鸽派言论，叠加非农 报告数据显示劳动力市场潜在趋势依旧疲软后，市场对美联储12月降息的预期在上周重新升温。此外， 上周末中国铜原料联合谈判小组(CSPT)达成共识决定2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，改善铜精矿 供需基本面。若冶炼端的减产发生或将使2026年的精铜供应更为紧张，进一步刺激铜价的上涨。 今年以来全球主力铜矿事故频发扰动生产，全球铜矿产量预期持续下调，连带明年铜矿产量仍具有较大 不确定性。全球铜矿原料紧缺背景下，2025年年底全球最大铜生产Codelco向中国冶炼厂买家提出2026 年精炼铜年度合约升水报价高达335-350美元/吨，较2025年的89美元/吨猛增超275%，矿冶矛盾激化。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 近日，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表"就业下行风险增加，通胀上行风险减弱，近期内存在进一步调整联 邦基金利率目标区间的空间"的鸽派言论，以及美国9月非农就业报告显示劳动力市场潜在趋势依旧疲软 后，市场对美联储12月降息的预 ...