【电力】 电改深化，电价体系的复盘与展望 20251008 摘要 中国电力市场改革持续深化，上网侧市场化改革已取得显著进展，火电 竞价全面入市，核电竞价入市比例达 50%，2025 年新能源项目也将全 面入市，发电竞价普遍趋向市场化。 电力改革旨在通过市场机制反映各环节真实价值，包括能量价值、绿色 价值、输配电费和系统运行费用，引导行业高质量发展，并促进资源优 化配置与可持续发展。 当前电价机制下，各环节损益通过明确公式确定，容量电价政策明确了 新型储能等领域的合理回报形式，如煤电容量电价确立，即使不发电， 容量价值仍能得到认可和补偿。 中国发电市场化进程显著，至 2025 年，火力发电占比约 65%，新能源 占比近 20%，水力发电占比约 13%-15%，核力发电占比约 5%，约 85%的发电已脱离政府定价，通过市场竞争定价。 未来电改方向在于反映各环节真实价值，通过科学合理定价机制确保每 个环节合理回报，促进新型高效清洁能源体系发展，并可能推动用电脱 离政府定价，实现全面市场化。 Q&A 电力市场改革是一个复杂且长期的过程，其主要原因在于电力行业作为国家民 生和工业相关的基础行业，用电量在第二产业和第三产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while electricity prices and volumes continued to decline in the third quarter, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to lead to positive performance for thermal power operators in northern and parts of eastern and central China [2][6] - Hydropower performance is anticipated to be limited due to weak electricity generation during the main flood season, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.95% in hydropower generation from July to August [7][35] - Nuclear power generation is expected to grow steadily, but performance may vary by province due to differing impacts from declining electricity prices [7][36] - Clean energy utilization hours have decreased nationally, but regions like Fujian, Shanghai, and Guangdong have shown recovery in wind energy utilization hours, leading to strong performance from certain regional new energy operators [8][43] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The three core factors affecting thermal power profitability are coal prices, electricity prices, and utilization hours. Despite a general decline in electricity prices across provinces, coal prices have significantly decreased, with the average coal price in Qinhuangdao dropping by 175.63 yuan/ton year-on-year [6][20] - The comprehensive coal price drop is expected to reduce thermal power fuel costs by approximately 0.035 yuan/kWh year-on-year, supporting continued improvement in thermal power operations, especially in northern and eastern provinces [6][32] Hydropower - Hydropower generation faced a year-on-year decline of 9.95% due to high base effects and uneven rainfall distribution. However, improved water inflow in September is expected to alleviate some pressure on hydropower performance [7][35] - Major hydropower companies are expected to manage water reservoir operations effectively to mitigate fluctuations in water inflow [35] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation is projected to grow by 7.09% year-on-year, supported by increased installed capacity and stable maintenance schedules. However, market price fluctuations may impact performance differently across operators [36][7] Clean Energy - Wind and solar power generation saw significant year-on-year growth of 11.85% and 22.09%, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased. Regional disparities exist, with eastern coastal provinces showing improved wind energy utilization [8][43] - Despite high growth in installed capacity, the overall performance of new energy operators may face pressure due to rising costs and weak electricity prices, although some regional operators are expected to perform well [8][43] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation. For new energy, it suggests companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power [9][54]

消息面上，10月13至18日，国际原子能聚变能大会(FEC2025)将在成都举办。方正证券指出，聚变行业 催化明显较7-8月份更加密集，国际原子能聚变能大会或有重大国家和国际进展公布，且国内BEST项目 在Q4有望再次开启第二次密集招标（包括第一壁、偏滤器、电源等高价值量产品），其它聚变装置也 有望启动；巨头入局与海外装置点火重大进展。聚变年内第二次行情有望启动。 智通财经APP获悉，核电股早盘走高，截至发稿，中核国际(02302)涨12.99%，报6.96港元；中广核矿业 (01164)涨8.38%，报3.88港元；中广核电力(01816)涨0.34%，报2.93港元。 ...

消息面上，10月13至18日，国际原子能聚变能大会(FEC2025)将在成都举办。方正证券指出，聚变行业 催化明显较7-8月份更加密集，国际原子能聚变能大会或有重大国家和国际进展公布，且国内BEST项目 在Q4有望再次开启第二次密集招标(包括第一壁、偏滤器、电源等高价值量产品)，其它聚变装置也有望 启动；巨头入局与海外装置点火重大进展。聚变年内第二次行情有望启动。 核电股早盘走高，截至发稿，中核国际(02302)涨12.99%，报6.96港元；中广核矿业(01164)涨8.38%，报 3.88港元；中广核电力(01816)涨0.34%，报2.93港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the cold performance test for Unit 2 of the Zhejiang San'ao Nuclear Power Project marks a significant milestone in the construction of the nuclear power station, confirming the integrity and sealing of the primary circuit pressure boundary [1] Group 1 - The cold test was completed on October 5 at 20:25, coinciding with the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] - The cold test is a critical milestone in nuclear power station construction, involving functional tests of the primary circuit coolant system and related auxiliary systems [1] - The test verified the integrity and sealing of high-pressure boundaries, including welds, equipment, and connected systems in the primary circuit [1]

| 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日 相關 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 福 뷰 ፳ 股份數目 | | | ( 請參閱上述 * 註 有投票權股 期 (日 / 月 / 權益 | | | | | | | 图) | 份百分比 年) | | | | | | | ( % ) | | CS20250604E00012 | 中信证券资产管理有限公司 1101(L) | 10,746,000(L) | HKD 2.5490 | 673,002,000(L) | 6.03(L)03/06/2025 | （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 格隆汇6月5日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2025年6月3日，中广核电力(01816.HK)获中信证券资产管理有限公司在场内以每股均价2.549港元 增持1074.6万股，涉资约2739.16万港元。 增持后，中信证券资产管理有限公司最新持股数目为673,002,000股，持股比例由5.93%上升至6.03%。 | 股份代 ...

| 股份代號: | 01816 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 中國廣核電力股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 06/09/2025 - 06/10/2025 | | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 份數目 | 原炭 | | | (請參閱上述 * 註解 ) 有投票權股 (日 / 月 / 年 | | | | | | | | 份自分比 | | | | | | | | (%) | | | CS20251001E00005 | 中信证券资产管理有限公司 | 1101(L) | 5,981,000(L | HKD 2.8354 | 1,456,246,000(L) | 13.04(L)30/09/2025 | 格隆汇10月6日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2025年9月30日，中广核电力(01816.HK)获中信证券资产管理有限公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent advancements in China's nuclear fusion sector, particularly the successful installation of the Dewar base for the BEST project, have led to a surge in related nuclear energy stocks, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][10]. Group 1: Project Developments - The BEST project in Hefei, Anhui, has entered a new phase with the successful installation of its core component, the Dewar base, marking a significant milestone in its construction [2][6]. - The total assembly of the BEST project is set to commence on May 1, 2025, which is a critical phase involving the precise installation of various fusion reactor components [3]. - The installation process utilized a space-grade attitude control system, achieving millimeter-level precision for a 400-ton component, which sets a new record in the installation of large components [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Growth and Achievements - The global fusion industry has seen explosive growth over the past five years, with total investments nearing $10 billion [3]. - China's three major fusion devices have achieved significant milestones, including the EAST device operating plasma at 100 million degrees Celsius for 1066 seconds, and the "Chinese Circulation No. 3" reaching dual billion-degree temperatures [4]. - The BEST project aims to demonstrate fusion power generation by 2027, with a broader goal of commercializing fusion energy by 2030 [5][10]. Group 3: Investment and Market Response - The nuclear energy sector has seen a collective surge in stock prices, with companies like China Nuclear International rising by 21.30% and Shanghai Electric by 14.19% following the recent project developments [10][11]. - The investment landscape for fusion energy is evolving, with a structure emerging that combines national strategic capital, local industrial capital, and private innovation capital [5][10]. - The supply chain for the BEST project includes 16 A-share listed companies, indicating a robust industrial ecosystem supporting fusion energy development [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong nuclear power stocks have experienced significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for several companies in the sector [1] Company Performance - China National Nuclear Corporation International (中核国际) saw its stock price rise by over 17% [1] - China General Nuclear Power Group's mining and renewable energy subsidiaries (中广核矿业、中广核新能源) both increased by more than 5% [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (中广核电力) experienced a stock price increase of over 3% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong nuclear power stocks have collectively strengthened, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] Group 2 - China National Nuclear Power International (02302) saw a significant increase of 17.96%, reaching a latest price of 6.370, with a total market capitalization of 3.116 billion and a year-to-date increase of 279.17% [2] - China General Nuclear Power Mining (01164) rose by 5.04%, with a latest price of 3.540, a total market capitalization of 26.906 billion, and a year-to-date increase of 118.11% [2] - China General Nuclear Power New Energy (01811) increased by 4.48%, with a latest price of 3.030, a total market capitalization of 12.998 billion, and a year-to-date increase of 33.05% [2] - China General Nuclear Power (01816) experienced a rise of 3.78%, with a latest price of 3.020, a total market capitalization of 152.506 billion, and a year-to-date increase of 9.95% [2]