Core Insights - The report indicates that mainstream thermal power operators have significantly increased profits in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily benefiting from the decline in coal prices and effective cost control by some companies [1][3]. Group 1: Green Energy Performance - In Q3 2025, except for Xintian Green Energy, Jinko Technology, and Yinxing Energy, the net profits of other companies in the green energy sector declined, with the profit increases for Xintian Green Energy and Jinko Technology attributed to unexpected cost reductions and improved investment returns [2]. - The decline in profitability for new energy companies is mainly due to reduced utilization hours and falling electricity prices, with wind power generation dropping by 12.1% for Longyuan Power and 21.3% for Xintian Green Energy in October [2]. - Despite the profit declines, the operating cash flow for green energy companies improved significantly due to a substantial increase in subsidy payments received [2]. Group 2: Thermal and Hydropower Performance - Mainstream thermal power operators saw a notable increase in profits in the first three quarters, benefiting from a decrease in coal prices, with the average spot price of Qinhuangdao down by 191 yuan/ton [3]. - Although thermal power operators face revenue pressure due to declining electricity volume and prices, the reduction in coal prices and other costs has contributed to profit growth [3][4]. - Hydropower performance varied due to water supply conditions, with overall profits remaining stable, similar to thermal power, as financial cost reductions continued to enhance profits [4]. Group 3: Nuclear Power Performance - In Q3 2025, nuclear power companies experienced a decline in net profits, with China Nuclear Power's profits dropping significantly due to the drag from its new energy segment [5]. - The decline in electricity prices is a common challenge for nuclear power companies, with China Guangdong Nuclear Power managing to offset some impacts through cost reductions and increased other income [5]. - Recommendations include focusing on quality hydropower companies and undervalued wind power firms, as well as strong leaders capable of navigating through cycles [5].

Group 1 - Macquarie has downgraded China General Nuclear Power Corporation's A-share rating to underperform relative to the market, with a target price set at 3.32 RMB [1]

Group 1 - Macquarie has downgraded the rating of China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) A-shares to underperform relative to the market, indicating a bearish outlook on the stock's performance [1] - The target price for CGN A-shares has been set at 3.32 Chinese Yuan, suggesting a potential decline from current levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a slight increase in stock price recently but a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, CGN reported operating revenue of 59.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.576 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.10% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since CGN's A-share listing amount to 26.057 billion yuan, with 13.938 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 5, CGN's stock price increased by 2.01%, reaching 4.07 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 350 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.22% [1]. - The total market capitalization of CGN is approximately 205.529 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, CGN's stock price has risen by 0.87%, with a 12.43% increase over the past 20 trading days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, CGN had 228,200 shareholders, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 3.61% to 174,612 shares [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holds 7.487 billion shares, down by 621 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 59.723 billion, a decrease of 4.09% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 8.576 billion, down 14.14% year-on-year, primarily due to increased market-based electricity sales and declining electricity prices [9][11]. - The total electricity generation from the company's operational nuclear units reached 182.822 billion kWh, an increase of 2.67% year-on-year, with grid electricity sales at 172.179 billion kWh, up 3.17% year-on-year [9][11]. - The cancellation of the variable cost compensation for nuclear power in Guangdong is expected to lead to a rebound in electricity prices, with an estimated increase of approximately CNY 0.04/kWh in market-based prices starting in 2026 [2][17]. - The adjustment of the value-added tax policy for nuclear power is not expected to have a significant impact on profitability in the short term [3][19]. - The completion of the asset injection of Huizhou Nuclear Power is a significant development, with the company acquiring 82% of Huizhou Nuclear Power and 100% of its subsidiaries [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 20.556 billion, a decrease of 10.21% year-on-year but an increase of 7.40% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was CNY 2.624 billion, down 8.81% year-on-year and down 10.32% quarter-on-quarter [9][11]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 33.5%, a decrease of 3.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.58%, down 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [11][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 9.41 billion, CNY 10.75 billion, and CNY 11.73 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -13%, 14%, and 9% [20][22]. - The company is managing 28 operational units with a total installed capacity of 31.796 million kW and has 20 units under construction, representing 44.46% of the national total capacity [16][22]. Market Conditions - The market-based electricity price in Guangdong is expected to rebound due to the cancellation of the variable cost compensation mechanism, which is anticipated to positively impact the company's performance in 2026 [2][17]. - The company’s stock is currently priced at CNY 4.01, with a market capitalization of CNY 202.499 billion [6][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the nuclear power sector due to price and volume pressures. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 59.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.576 billion yuan, down 14.14% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, revenue was 20.556 billion yuan, a decline of 10.21% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.624 billion yuan, down 8.81% year-on-year [1][2] Operational Challenges - The total nuclear power generation for the first three quarters of 2025 was 172.179 billion kWh, an increase of 3.17% year-on-year, but Q3 generation was 58.819 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year - The average nuclear power generation price in Q3 2025 is estimated to have decreased by approximately 1.2 cents per kWh, contributing to revenue decline - Operating costs in Q3 2025 decreased by 6.47% year-on-year, while sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses varied, with significant reductions in sales and R&D costs [2] Growth Prospects - As of September 30, 2025, the company has 20 nuclear power units under construction, with several expected to be operational between 2025 and 2028, indicating substantial long-term growth potential - The cancellation of the variable cost compensation mechanism for Guangdong nuclear power units starting in 2026 is expected to enhance profitability for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.450 billion yuan, 9.785 billion yuan, and 10.561 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.62%, +3.54%, and +7.94% - The price-to-earnings ratio for the company's stock as of November 3, 2025, is estimated to be 21.43, 20.70, and 19.17 for the respective years [4]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power (01816.HK) has seen an increase in shareholding by CITIC Securities - Kaiyuan Single Asset Management Plan, which raised its stake from 11.99% to 12.14% by acquiring 16.16 million shares at an average price of HKD 3.0868 per share, totaling approximately HKD 49.88 million [1]. Summary by Category - **Shareholding Increase** - CITIC Securities - Kaiyuan Single Asset Management Plan acquired 16.16 million shares of China General Nuclear Power [1]. - The average purchase price was HKD 3.0868 per share [1]. - Post-acquisition, the total number of shares held by CITIC Securities - Kaiyuan is 1,355,560,000, representing a 12.14% stake [1]. - **Financial Implications** - The total investment for the share acquisition was approximately HKD 49.88 million [1].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has increased its stake in China General Nuclear Power (01816) by acquiring 16.16 million shares at a price of HKD 3.0868 per share, totaling approximately HKD 49.88 million, raising its ownership to about 1.3556 billion shares, which represents 12.14% of the company [1] Summary by Category - **Share Acquisition** - CITIC Securities acquired 16.16 million shares of China General Nuclear Power at HKD 3.0868 per share [1] - The total investment for this acquisition was approximately HKD 49.88 million [1] - **Ownership Structure** - Following the acquisition, CITIC Securities' total shareholding in China General Nuclear Power is approximately 1.3556 billion shares [1] - This represents a holding percentage of 12.14% in the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities-Kaiyuan Single Asset Management Plan has increased its stake in China General Nuclear Power (01816) by acquiring 16.16 million shares at a price of HKD 3.0868 per share, totaling approximately HKD 49.88269 million, resulting in a new holding of about 1.3556 billion shares, representing 12.14% ownership [1] Summary by Category - **Share Acquisition** - CITIC Securities-Kaiyuan has purchased 16.16 million shares of China General Nuclear Power [1] - The acquisition price was HKD 3.0868 per share, leading to a total investment of approximately HKD 49.88269 million [1] - **Ownership Structure** - Following the acquisition, CITIC Securities-Kaiyuan's total shareholding in China General Nuclear Power is approximately 1.3556 billion shares [1] - This represents a 12.14% ownership stake in the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting potential growth opportunities in renewable energy and natural gas consumption [4][8]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading prices in Q3 compared to Q1. The total issuance of green power certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable [7][8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price reaching a six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [9][11]. - The report anticipates an increase in natural gas consumption in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and expected higher heating demand from a potential La Niña phenomenon [30][31]. Summary by Sections Electricity - The average trading price of green certificates increased by 210% in Q3 compared to Q1. The issuance of green certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable, indicating a robust market growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for further development of the green certificate market and the introduction of regulations to enhance renewable energy consumption [4][7]. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the U.S. Henry Hub spot price was $3.57/mmBtu, marking an 11.16% increase week-on-week. In contrast, European gas prices showed a decline, with the TTF spot price at €30.35/MWh, down 5.42% [9][10]. - The report notes a decrease in China's apparent natural gas consumption in September 2025, but anticipates a rebound in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and increased heating demand [30][31]. - The LNG national ex-factory price in China rose to 4407 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.11% increase week-on-week, driven by rising demand ahead of the heating season [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market conditions: - Hydropower: Focus on Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to favorable hydrological conditions [8]. - Green Power: Attention to New Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power for their stable returns [8]. - Nuclear Power: Recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power due to ongoing approvals for new units [8]. - Thermal Power: Companies like Guodian Power and Huadian International are highlighted for improved profitability due to falling coal prices [8]. - Gas Power: Recommendations for Guangzhou Development and Shenzhen Energy based on expected stability in profitability [8].