重大事项： 协鑫新能源(00451)拟发行1.865亿股认购股份 牵手 Pharos加速Web3与新能源产业的融合 翰森制药(03692)：阿美乐® (甲磺酸阿美替尼片)第五项适应症获国家药品监督管理局签发药品注册证书 绿叶制药(02186)：1类创新药若欣林®用于治疗广泛性焦虑障碍的新适应症中国上市申请获得受理 先健科技(01302)：G-iliacTM Pro髂动脉覆膜支架系统获得中国国家药品监督管理局的正式注册批准 美瑞健康国际(02327)拟1.25亿元收购江苏懿德全部股权 世纪娱乐国际(00959)合资公司与WPT订立谅解备忘录 拟共同开发、营运及实现移动应用程式的商业化 经营业绩： 迅销(06288)发布第一季度业绩，股东应占溢利1474.45亿日圆 同比增加11.7% 合景泰富集团(01813)12月预售额为4.20亿元 同比减少56.7% 宝龙地产(01238)2025年合约销售总额约72.72亿元 同比减少43.13% 中广核电力(01816)2025年总上网电量约为2326.48亿千瓦时 同比增长2.36% 灵宝黄金(03330)发盈喜 预计2025年度净利润约15.03亿至15.73亿元 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 上世纪九十年代日本三轮牛市的经验告诉我们，即便在通缩环境、地产下行和债务问题等多重压力下， 依靠政策刺 激和 资金入市也可以促成 牛市 。 但如果结构问题迟迟没解决（甚至因短期修复延后了解决的进程）， 当短期刺激的效果逐步衰减后，结构问题的拖拽也会逐渐显现 ， 这也是为何日本当时可以出现三轮牛市，但却总是被打断，往往持续一年多左右就结束的原因之一（ 《"被忽略"的牛市》 ）。 日本上世纪九十年代的市场反弹不断被打断，经济修复不断被延后， 除了科技方向偏航之外，另一个重要的原因在于未能兜底居民资产负债 表和解决民生疲弱等结构性问题，且债务化解偏慢， 又恰巧遭遇了多次外部危机放大了内部矛盾，最终酿成了"失去的二十年"。 相反，2000 年尤其是2010年后，当政策大举向民生倾斜并解决债务问题后，就迎来了长达十多年的长期牛市。 那么，日本当时面临怎样的结构性问题？政策一开始有何不足，以致修复进程一再延后？后续政策又做了哪些改变，得以走出失去的二十年？ "924"行情给中国资产重估开了个好头，展望未来，如何让中国资产重估"行稳致远"，基础更为牢靠、范围更加广泛？ 从"被 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden criminal detention of Yu Faxiang, a prominent businessman with a net worth of 14.5 billion, has triggered a liquidity crisis involving 20 billion and nearly 10,000 investors, leading to significant turmoil in his companies [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On December 22, three publicly listed companies—Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Jiaojian Co., and Haichang Ocean Park—announced that their actual controller, Yu Faxiang, was taken away by the police for suspected criminal activities [3]. - Just two months prior, Yu was featured on the Hurun Rich List with a net worth of 14.5 billion, ranking 465th, highlighting the abruptness of his fall from grace [3]. - The crisis began in late November when financial products guaranteed by Xiangyuan Holdings started to default, with an estimated outstanding payment scale exceeding 20 billion, involving over 200 products [3]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Challenges - The company’s executive, Shen Baoshan, admitted that the firm had been relying on a "borrow new to repay old" strategy, and now the cash flow has been severely disrupted due to a halt in financing [3][4]. - Xiangyuan Holdings, which claims total assets of 60 billion, is facing a cash flow crisis due to unsold real estate worth 30 billion and a breakdown in its financing chain [3][4]. Group 3: Business Model and Risks - Yu Faxiang's business model, which heavily relies on high turnover in real estate to fund cultural tourism operations, has proven to be vulnerable, especially when the real estate market cools down [4]. - The over-reliance on financing rather than operational cash flow has exposed the company to significant risks, particularly after the cancellation of trading qualifications at the Zhejiang Financial Center [4]. - The resignation of Yu Faxiang's cousin, Yu Honghua, from all listed company positions and the judicial freezing of over 800 million shares held by Yu and his affiliates indicate potential instability in company control [4].

Economic Overview - Effective demand remains significantly insufficient, with industrial added value in November increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in the previous period[3] - Retail sales growth has notably slowed to 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% previously[3] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year remains stable at approximately -11%, consistent with the previous value of -11.2%[5] Sector Performance - High-tech industry added value rose by 8.4% year-on-year, up from 7.2% previously[4] - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, recovering from a decline of 1.1%[3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 18.6% decline previously, while sales revenue fell by 24.7%, worsening from a 24.1% decline[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in November decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment down by 4.5% and real estate investment down by 30.1%[5] - The construction area for new projects fell by 27.6% year-on-year, while the area under construction dropped by 40%[5] - The total investment in fixed assets for the first 11 months of the year showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with non-real estate fixed asset investment increasing by 0.8%[5] Policy Implications - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction and to stimulate investment and consumption[7] - The potential for policy measures to strengthen demand has opened up following the release of November's economic data[7]

内容提要： 2025年11月社融新增2.49万亿元，同比增长6.9%，非标融资和政府债托底占比超80%，实体信贷收缩。居民贷款同比少增4688亿元，地 产弱、消费乏力拖累中长期和短期需求；企业短期票据冲量，中长期少增400亿元，信心不足抑制投资。财政政策今年重点置换隐性债 后，明年可能重新转向固定资产投资，推动止跌回稳，但需防范加剧产能过剩风险。 一、11月新增社会融资增长6.9%，主要由非标融资托底。 12月12日，中国人民银行公布的2025年11月金融统计数据显示，前11个月社会融资规模增量累计达33.39万亿元，同比增长13.5%，比上 年同期多增3.99万亿元。其中，11月新增社融2.49万亿元，同比多增1597亿元，增速达6.9%。这一增长看似稳健，但细究分项，主要依 赖非标融资和政府债的托底，而非 实体经济的核心信贷需求。 从结构看，非标融资成为绝对主角。11月信托贷款、委托贷款及银行未贴现承兑汇票等非标资产环比增加2146亿元，同比多增1328亿 元，占新增社融的约9%。其中，信托贷款同比多增753亿元，表外票据多增580亿元，而委托贷款仅同比少增5亿元。这得益于10月新型 政策性金融工具资金投 ...

快刀财经的朋友们，好消息来了，为了满足大家多元化的需求，「快刀财经」的视频内容我们会同步在 公众号上发布，还是熟悉的配方及味道，还是犀利但有温度的内容，还是足够多的增量信息，还有你在 公众号上可能看不到的独家重磅。快去视频号、抖音、B站、小红书搜索「快刀财经」，关注我们，每 天为你解剖一个新商业真相。 以下是本期视频脚本： 最近半年，网友们的视线，可谓都被英皇旗下的"还债天团"给刷屏了。 先是谢霆锋开演唱会狂揽2.4亿、容祖儿的商演直接下沉到学校操场，接着又是陈伟霆演电视剧，霍汶 希卖课，总之是各种天王天后级别的巨星都在高强度复出。 不少网友都疑惑，英皇到底欠了多少债，才让当家明星们都这么"不顾体面"了？ 虽然自打今年开始，英皇集团"负债166亿"的消息一直都挺热乎，但实际陷入债务风波的主体却是主营 房地产的"英皇国际"，而非各种明星扎堆的"英皇娱乐"。 并且这最为大众所熟知的娱乐业务，在整个英皇的经济版图中占比还不足十分之一。 不过这家横跨娱乐、博彩、地产以及金融的超级商业帝国，也确实陷入了"中年危机"。 大众对于英皇的第一印象，基本都是一个巨大的"造星公司"，甚至是整个娱乐圈的半壁江山。 毕竟自打英皇赶上 ...

12 月政治局会议传递的信号 20251209 中国政策重心转向高质量发展，不再片面追求经济增速，更强调结构调 整和增长质量，预计"十五"期间经济增长中枢在 4.5%左右，2026 年 增长目标或设在 5%左右。 财政政策将维持积极态势，赤字率或小幅提升至 4%-4.2%，专项债规 模预计与预算持平或略增，但特别国债和超长期特别国债的使用将适度 收缩。 货币政策延续适度宽松基调，但除非外部环境剧变，否则宽松力度有限， 结构性政策工具将继续发力，重点支持科技、绿色等领域，以促进物价 合理回升和金融稳定。 国际经贸方面，中国将灵活应对外部环境变化，若外需承压，将加大逆 周期调节力度。尽管中美关系波动可控，但需警惕欧洲和日本可能出现 的贸易摩擦对中国出口的影响。 消费刺激策略将从耐用品消费扩展到养老消费等新领域，以维持当前消 费水平并开辟新的增长点。政府侧重通过提升服务业供给来挖掘消费潜 力，而非直接刺激需求。 Q&A 摘要 如何解读 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的经济信号？ 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的主要经济信号可以从逆周期与跨周期相结合的 视角进行解读。在中美博弈、社会稳定、结构转型和经济增长四个层次中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October indicates a general slowdown in total economic activity, with key indicators such as industrial output, services, investment, retail sales, exports, and real estate sales all showing varying degrees of decline compared to previous values [1][5][19]. Economic Data Overview - The monthly GDP index simulated from industrial output, retail sales, and service production indices shows a year-on-year growth of 4.53%. This index has gradually recovered since the low in September 2022, reaching a high in March 2023, but has faced pressure in the second quarter and again in October [1][6]. - To achieve the annual growth target of 5%, the combined growth for November and December needs to be no less than 4.5% [1][6]. Industrial Sector Analysis - October's industrial output growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The month-on-month seasonally adjusted industrial value added was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous 0.65% [6][8]. - The decline in industrial output is attributed to three main factors: fluctuations in export delivery values, a slowdown in major industrial product outputs, and the impact of policy financial tools on the construction sector [2][8]. - Key industrial product outputs showed negative growth, including crude steel (-12.1%), cement (-15.8%), and solar cells (-8.7%), while integrated circuit production increased by 17.7% [8][12]. Retail Sales Insights - Retail sales in October did not show an overall decline, with many categories improving. The apparent slowdown was mainly due to high base effects in durable goods like automobiles. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.0%, surpassing the previous 3.2% [9][10]. - Growth was observed in sectors such as dining, alcohol, food, clothing, cosmetics, and daily necessities, while declines were noted in real estate-related furniture and high-base automotive and home appliance sales [9][10]. Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping from -0.5% to -1.7%, and a monthly decline of 11.2% [3][11]. - The share of real estate development in fixed asset investment fell to 18.0%, the lowest since 2018. Excluding real estate, fixed asset investment growth was only 1.7%, indicating persistent low levels [3][11]. Real Estate Market Conditions - Real estate data in October continued to show significant pressure, with declines in sales, new construction, investment completion, and funding availability [15][16]. - The price indices for new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities showed a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to previous values, indicating a need for price stabilization to support sales and investment [15][17]. Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for October suggests a marginal increase in total pressure, with structural highlights in general consumption and service consumption showing initial signs of recovery [4][19]. - The shortfalls remain in fixed asset investment and real estate volume and price, with recent policy measures yet to translate into hard data [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent closure of the Emperor Palace Casino in Macau highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the gaming industry in the region, particularly for companies like Emperor Entertainment Hotel and its affiliates, amid financial difficulties and operational changes [1][3][10]. Group 1: Casino Operations - Emperor Palace Casino ceased operations on October 30, 2023, as part of a termination agreement between its parent company, Tianhao, and Aoyou [1][3][10]. - Aoyou Holdings had previously announced on June 9, 2023, that it would stop operating gaming activities in several satellite casinos, including Emperor Palace [5]. - New Macau International Development also announced that its satellite casinos would end operations by the end of this year [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Emperor Entertainment Hotel reported stable income from hotel and rental apartment operations for the fiscal years ending March 31, 2024, and 2025, with cash reserves of approximately HKD 526 million and no bank borrowings [11]. - Emperor International's total revenue for the fiscal year 2024-2025 reached HKD 1.376 billion, a 41.5% increase year-on-year, but the loss increased from HKD 2.028 billion to HKD 4.84 billion, a 138% rise [14][16]. - As of March 31, 2023, Emperor International had HKD 16.6 billion in overdue bank loans, raising concerns about its ability to continue as a going concern [16]. Group 3: Debt Crisis and Asset Sales - The company is facing a significant debt crisis, with overdue loans potentially triggering immediate repayment demands [12][16]. - In response to financial pressures, Emperor Group has accelerated asset sales, including residential projects in Hong Kong and properties in Macau, totaling over HKD 2.23 billion in sales contracts [17][18]. - The company's financial troubles have roots in previous business failures, such as the closure of its cinema operations in late 2022, which led to bankruptcy due to high net liabilities [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent closure of the Emperor Palace Casino in Macau marks a significant shift in the operations of Emperor Entertainment Hotel and reflects broader challenges within the gaming industry in the region [2][4][6]. Group 1: Company Operations - Emperor Palace Casino ceased operations on October 30, 2023, at 23:59, following a termination agreement between its subsidiary, Tianhao, and AUB [4][6]. - Emperor Entertainment Hotel will continue its hotel business, including properties like the Emperor Jockey Club Hotel in Hong Kong, despite the closure of the casino [8]. - The company reported stable income from hotel and rental apartment operations for the fiscal years ending March 31, 2024, and 2025 [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Emperor International reported a total revenue of approximately HKD 1.375 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, a 41.5% increase from HKD 972.55 million in the previous year [12]. - However, the company also faced significant losses, with a net loss attributable to shareholders increasing from HKD 2.091 billion to HKD 2.321 billion, marking a 10.9% increase [12]. - As of March 31, 2023, Emperor International had HKD 16.6 billion in overdue bank loans, raising concerns about its ongoing viability [12][13]. Group 3: Market Context - The Emperor Palace Casino was once a prominent player in Macau's competitive gaming market, having opened in January 2006 and generating approximately HKD 1.2 billion in revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2007 [8]. - The closure of the casino is part of a broader trend, as AUB had previously announced its decision to cease operations at several satellite casinos, including the Emperor Palace [4][6]. - The financial struggles of Emperor International have led to significant stock price declines, with shares dropping over 15% following the announcement of its financial difficulties [13].