[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中国中免(601888.SH) 2024年03月29日 买入（维持） 中国中免(601888.SH)：23 年加大分 所属行业：商贸零售/旅游零售Ⅱ 红比例，24 年有望稳定高质增长 当前价格(元)：85.42 证券分析师 投资要点 赵雅楠 资格编号：S0120523070002 收入利润符合预期。2023 年实现收入 675.40 亿元/同比+24.08%，归母净利润  邮箱：zhaoyn＠tebon.com.cn 67.14 亿元/同比+33.46%，扣非归母净利润 66.52 亿元/同比+35.71%；其中 研究助理 2023Q4 收入 167.03 亿元，归母净利润 15.07 亿元，扣非归母净利润 14.61 亿 元。整体符合此前业绩快报。拟向全体股东每股派发现金红利 1.65 元（含税）， 合计派发现金红利34.14亿元，年内公司现金分红比例为 50.85%。 市场表现 国内消费环境复苏，低基数下免税业务高增。分业务看，免税收入 442.31 亿元/  中国中免 沪深300 同比+69.91%，毛利率 39.49%/同比+0.08pct；有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) [1][5][15] Core Views - The actual performance for 2023 aligns with the preliminary report, showing a significant increase in cash dividend payout ratio, which sends a positive signal [1][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 67.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.714 billion yuan, up 33.46% [1][6] - The dividend payout ratio for 2023 is proposed at 50.85%, significantly higher than the previous level of over 30% [1][6] - The company is transitioning from a focus solely on duty-free to a broader travel retail model, indicating growth potential [2][14] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 16.703 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.85% increase, and a net profit of 1.507 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 274.88% [1][6] - The overall revenue from Hainan operations was 39.65 billion yuan, a 14.25% increase, while the airport duty-free segment faced pressure [1][12] - The main business gross margin improved by 3.34 percentage points, driven by an increase in the proportion of duty-free revenue [12][14] Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 7.734 billion, 9.362 billion, and 10.528 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.74, 4.53, and 5.09 yuan [2][14] - The PE ratio is projected to be 22, 18, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][14] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 12.5% in 2023 to 15.6% by 2026 [3][16]

商贸零售 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年3月29日 601888.SH 中国中免 买入 盈利能力稳步提升，关注口岸渠道快速修复 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 86.18 公司发布 2023 年年报。23 年公司实现营收 675.40 亿元，同比+24.08%，归 母净利润 67.14 亿元，同比+33.46%。公司盈利能力持续优化，并提高分红 板块评级:强于大市 比例回馈股东，看好后续各渠道高质量发展，维持买入评级。 支撑评级的要点 股价表现  盈利能力持续优化，拟提高现金分红比例。23年公司实现营收675.40亿 5% 元，同比+24.08%，归母净利润 67.14 亿元，同比+33.46%。其中 23Q4 (8%) 实现营收 167.03 亿元，同比+10.85%，归母净利润 15.07 亿元，同比 +274.72%。且公司显著提高分红力度，拟向全体股东每股派发现金红利 (21%) 1.65 元（含税），共计派发现金红利34.14亿元，分红比例达到50.85%。 (33%) (46%)  线下免税销售持续恢复，销售结构优化带动毛利提升，1)分板块来看，免 税 / 有 税 业 态 的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue reaching 67.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.714 billion yuan, up 33.46% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's profitability improved year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.82%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 9.94%, up 0.7 percentage points [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.65 yuan per share, totaling 3.414 billion yuan, resulting in a cash dividend payout ratio of 50.85%, significantly higher than the previous year's 32.9% [3]. - The new rental agreement is expected to reduce airport rental costs, and the recovery of inbound and outbound passenger flow is anticipated to boost duty-free revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 16.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.85%, and a net profit of 1.507 billion yuan, up 274.72% year-on-year [2]. - The company's inventory at the end of 2023 was 21.057 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8 billion yuan from the previous quarter and a year-on-year decline of 6.869 billion yuan, indicating inventory optimization [3]. Regional Performance - Revenue from Hainan reached 39.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.25%, while Shanghai's revenue was 17.821 billion yuan, up 25.99% year-on-year [3]. - The Haikou Duty-Free City generated revenue of 6.838 billion yuan in its first year of operation, contributing positively to the company's overall performance [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 7.872 billion yuan, 9.540 billion yuan, and 11.121 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23x, 19x, and 16x [4].

智通财经APP获悉，3月28日，国内免税龙头中国中免(01880)股价一度大涨超9%。截至收盘，涨 7.29%，报78港元。中国中免走强，与昨日公布的2023年业绩有关。根据公告，该公司实现营业收入 675.40亿元，同比增长24.08%；实现利润总额86.46亿元，同比增长13.50%；实现归属于上市公司股东 的净利润67.14亿元，同比增长33.46%。值得关注的是，中国中免拟每10股派现16.5元，合计拟派发现 金红利34.14亿元。本年度公司现金分红比例为50.85%，分红比例提升。 中国中免在财报中解释，公司业绩同比增幅超过30%，主要是因为公司紧抓消费复苏和出入境政策放开 的机遇，着力激发消费活力，优化商品结构，提升运营效率，使公司主营业务回升，盈利能力修复。 若从单季度的表现来看，中国中免在2023年第一季度至第四季度期间分别实现营业收入207.7亿元、 150.9亿元、149.8亿元、167.0亿元，对应的同比增幅分别为23.76%、38.83%、27.87%、10.85%；归母 净利润则分别为23.01亿元、15.65亿元、13.41亿元、15.07亿元，对应的同比增幅分别为-10.25%、 ...

昨晚，中国中免公布了2023年度报告：全年实现营收675亿元，同比增长20%；实现归母净利润67亿元，同比增长33%。与之前发布的业绩预期相对一致，重点关注其数据变化。到底有哪些看点呢？ 1、中国中免2023年4季度共实现营收167亿元， 在春节及1-3月份旺季，营收环比增长11%，连续两个季度持平后有所突破。 2、2023下半年，公司免税品销售收入203亿元，环比上半年减少了约37亿（15.4%），游客购物需求仍未修复。 3、四季度海南离岛免税销售在去年极低基数下仅增长了14%，环比也接近持平，其中购物人次同比上升了74%，销售件数却下降了7%，游客特征仍然为“只逛不买”。 4、四季度中国中免实现毛利润54亿元，环比小增2亿， 明显少于营收增量。但从支出看，本季的营销费用环比减少了近2亿到24.8亿，费用率环比减少了约2.9pct，有一定改善。 5、中国中免拟每10股派现16.5元，合计拟派发现金红利34.14亿元。本年度公司现金分红比例为50.85%，分红比例提升。 华泰证券认为，中国中免持续提升服务供给，优化品牌布局，增强整体运营水平。2023年海南区域新增177个国内外知名品牌，对标一线品牌运营及服务 ...

3月28日早盘，A股三大指数涨跌分化，核心龙头资产MSCI中国A50互联互通指数低开后跌幅持续收窄，成分股涨跌互现，中国中免涨超4%，工业富联、分众传媒等跟涨；下跌方面，比亚迪、农业银行、交通银行等领跌。 “免税龙头”中国中免3月27日晚间披露年报，2023年实现营业收入675.4亿元，同比增长24.08%；归母净利润67.14亿元，同比增长33.46%；基本每股收益3.25元。公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利16.5元（含税）。 财信证券认为，2024年在社会预期改善、稳增长政策力度加大、流动性合理充裕、预计美联储降息落地的背景下，A股估值具备向常态化水平回归的基础。随着美联储降息、中美关系回暖、市场预期改善，预计2024年外资将重新流入A股，关注外资青睐的白酒、家电等板块。 A50ETF（159601）紧密跟踪MSCI中国A50互联互通指数，一键打包11个行业50只龙头个股，均衡覆盖A股市场核心龙头资产表现，核心资产、基金重仓、成交主力、护城河、证金等概念暴露度高。从估值层面来看，A50ETF跟踪的MSCI中国A50互联互通指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅10.4倍，处于近五年37.55%的分位，估值 ...

2024年3月27日 公司研究 业务稳步发展，2023 年分红比例显著提升 ——中国中免（601888.SH）2023 年年报点评 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：83.18元 中国中免2023年营业收入675.4亿元，归母净利润67.1亿元 2024年3月27日,中国中免（601888.SH）公布2023年年报：2023年公司营 作者 业收入675.4亿元，同比增长24.08%；归母净利润67.1亿元，同比增长33.46%， 分析师：唐佳睿 CFA FCPA(Aust.) ACCA 对应基本每股收益3.25元；扣非归母净利润66.5亿元，同比增长35.71%。单 CAIA FRM 季度拆分来看，公司4Q2023实现营业收入167.0亿元，同比增长10.85%；实 执业证书编号：S0930516050001 现归母净利润15.1亿元，同比增长274.72%。 021-52523866 tangjiarui@ebscn.com 多渠道业务稳步发展，分红提升股东回报 分析师：田然 2023年公司主要业务线保持稳健发展，业务规模持续扩大。离岛业务方面，公 执业证书编号：S0930523050001 司多个项目在202 ...

Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 67.54 billion, representing a 24.08% increase compared to CNY 54.43 billion in 2022 [24]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 6.71 billion, a 33.46% increase from CNY 5.03 billion in the previous year [24]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 6.65 billion, up 35.71% from CNY 4.90 billion in 2022 [24]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities was CNY 15.13 billion, a significant recovery from a negative cash flow of CNY -3.42 billion in 2022 [24]. - The total assets at the end of 2023 were CNY 78.87 billion, a 3.90% increase from CNY 75.91 billion at the end of 2022 [24]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 10.83% to CNY 53.83 billion from CNY 48.57 billion in 2022 [24]. - Basic earnings per share rose to CNY 3.2451, reflecting a 28.38% increase from CNY 2.5277 in 2022 [25]. - The total profit for the year was CNY 8.65 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.50% [56]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities was CNY 15.13 billion, a significant recovery from a negative cash flow of CNY 3.42 billion in the previous year [58]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - In 2023, the company distributed a cash dividend of RMB 16.5 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 3,413.6174 million, which accounts for 50.85% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5]. - The total cash dividend amount for the year was RMB 3,413,617,422.60, representing 50.85% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [138]. - The company distributed a cash dividend of RMB 8.00 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 1,655,087,235.20, which accounts for 32.90% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2022 [136]. Market Expansion and Operations - The company opened the C Zone of Sanya International Duty Free City, becoming the world's first standalone tourism retail plaza specializing in cosmetics [15]. - The company secured the operating rights for duty-free shops at Tianjin Binhai International Airport and three outbound duty-free shop projects in Yunnan, enhancing its channel advantages in major domestic airports [15]. - The company is advancing the third phase of the Sanya International Duty Free City project in collaboration with Swire Properties, aimed at long-term development [15]. - The company added 177 well-known domestic and international brands in Hainan, with sales from 14 pilot "S stores" increasing by 65% year-on-year [36]. - The company operates approximately 200 duty-free stores across more than 100 cities in China, making it the largest duty-free operator in terms of store types and locations [51]. Membership and Consumer Engagement - The membership system has been fully integrated, with over 32 million members, utilizing AI analysis for precise marketing and product recommendations [16]. - The company launched over 30 promotional events, including the Hainan Duty-Free Shopping Festival, to enhance consumer engagement and service quality [15]. - The company integrated its online services through the cdf中免 Hainan APP and mini-program, providing a one-stop platform for consumers [36]. - The company has over 32 million members, with a new member service policy aimed at enhancing consumer spending potential [40]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company invested CNY 1.0617 million in environmental protection measures during the reporting period, focusing on energy-saving renovations and waste treatment at Sanya and Haikou International Duty-Free Cities [144]. - The company has implemented carbon reduction measures, including energy-saving renovations and the use of clean energy equipment, achieving a 100% usage rate of electric forklifts [146]. - The Haikou International Duty-Free City project received the LEED Gold certification, reflecting the company's commitment to green building standards [147]. - The company provided over 25.78 million eco-friendly shopping bags to customers, promoting plastic reduction initiatives [145]. - The company invested a total of 13.37 million CNY in poverty alleviation and rural revitalization projects, including 13.31 million CNY in Menglian and Ximeng counties in Yunnan Province [151]. Governance and Management - The company held 2 shareholder meetings and 12 board meetings during the reporting period, reviewing a total of 14 and 51 proposals respectively [102]. - The board established four specialized committees, which held 16 meetings and reviewed 34 proposals, enhancing decision-making efficiency [103]. - The company maintains independence from its controlling shareholder in assets, personnel, finance, and operations, as per commitments made in 2016 [105]. - The governance structure includes a clear division of responsibilities among the Party Committee, Shareholders' Meeting, Board of Directors, Supervisory Board, and Management Team [102]. - The company has implemented a "1+N" governance system to ensure compliance with laws and regulations, enhancing operational effectiveness [103]. Risk Management - A foreign exchange risk management system was developed to monitor and assess exchange loss risks, laying the foundation for reducing foreign exchange losses [16]. - The company faces risks including intensified market competition and potential investment risks, which it plans to manage through strategic planning and project management [98][100]. - The company’s risk management and internal control systems were evaluated, with a focus on the financial company's operational qualifications and risk management [129]. Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on tourism retail business and aims to become a world-class operator in this sector in 2024 [18]. - The company expects the domestic tourism market to exceed 6 trillion yuan in revenue in 2024, recovering to or surpassing 2019 levels [89]. - The company is committed to accelerating international development and capital operations, leveraging the "Belt and Road" initiative [96]. - The company plans to strengthen its presence in the Hainan market by improving service quality and enhancing consumer satisfaction [94].

旅游零售 中国中免（601888.SH） 买入-B(维持) 盈利能力提升，关注出入境客流修复带动业绩增长 2024年3月28日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述  公司发布2023年财务报告，期内实现营收675.4亿元（+24.08%），归 母净利润67.14亿元（+33.46%），扣非归母净利润66.52亿元（+35.71%）， EPS3.25元，拟向全体股东每股派发现金红利1.65元（含税），年内公司现 金分红比例为50.85%。2023Q4实现营收167.03亿元（+10.85%），归母净利 润15.07亿元（+274.72%），扣非归母净利润14.61亿元（+358.9%）。期内公 司归母净利润、扣非归母净利润同比增速均超30%，系外部消费复苏、出入 境政策放开，叠加内部公司优化商品结构、提升运营效率，带动盈利能力持 市场数据：2024年3月27日 续修复。 收盘价（元）： 83.18 事件点评 年内最高/最低（元）： 187.99/75.12  线下门店经营恢复带动免税业务大幅增长。期内公司免税收入 442.31 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 19.52/20.69 亿元（+69.9 ...