Group 1: Travel Trends and Market Insights - The upcoming Dragon Boat Festival holiday is expected to see a steady growth in travel demand, with local and nearby travel accounting for 50% of the market share [1] - There is a significant increase in searches for cultural experience products related to the Dragon Boat Festival, with keywords like "Dragon Boat" and "Zongzi" seeing a 220% increase in search volume [1] - The trend of "central city sinking to surrounding areas" is prominent, with popular short-distance routes identified in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei [1] Group 2: Family and Inbound Travel - The overlap of the Dragon Boat Festival with Children's Day has boosted family travel, with family travel orders accounting for 35% of total orders on the Ctrip platform [2] - Inbound travel is gaining traction, with hotel search heat for inbound travel exceeding 100% year-on-year, indicating a strong appeal of China as a travel destination for foreign tourists [2] - The top ten source countries for inbound tourism include Malaysia, South Korea, and the United States, with major destinations being Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [2] Group 3: Financial Performance of Travel Companies - Ctrip Group reported a net operating income of 13.8 billion RMB for Q1 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.3 billion RMB [4] - Tongcheng Travel is projected to achieve revenues of 19.91 billion RMB in 2025, with a target price set at 28.00 HKD per share based on strong fundamentals [4] - Huazhu Group's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 is expected to grow by 10%, leading to an upward revision of its target price to 31.5 HKD [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The tourism industry is anticipated to continue its recovery, supported by domestic demand policies and improving consumer confidence [3] - Key investment recommendations include focusing on leisure travel platforms and quality scenic area operators, as well as business travel recovery stocks [3] - Companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Huangshan Tourism are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the leisure travel sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to less than 35% from the current price [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.75 billion RMB for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11%, and a net profit of 1.94 billion RMB, down 16% year-on-year, which was below expectations [7]. - The report highlights a marginal improvement in duty-free sales, particularly in Hainan, with a notable narrowing of sales decline in March 2025 [9]. - The company is expected to optimize its product categories, membership services, and supply chain management, projecting net profits of 5.26 billion RMB, 6 billion RMB, and 6.695 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Information - The company operates in the retail trade sector, with an H-share price of 51.85 HKD as of May 7, 2025, and a market capitalization of 90.202 billion RMB [2]. - The stock has seen a 12-month high of 78.3 HKD and a low of 39.6 HKD, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.88 [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has had several ratings in the past year, including "BUY" on January 17, 2025, and "TRADING BUY" on October 16, 2024 [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for 2022 was 5.03 billion RMB, with projections for 2025 at 5.26 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.3% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.54 RMB, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 19 [9]. Sales and Market Trends - Duty-free sales in Hainan saw a decline of 11.4% in Q1 2025, but the company anticipates improvements due to government initiatives and adjustments in product offerings [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's city store openings and their potential to enhance profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 16.75 billion for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11%, and a net profit of RMB 1.94 billion, down 16% year-on-year, which was below expectations [7]. - The report highlights a marginal improvement in duty-free sales, particularly in Hainan, with a notable recovery in average transaction value [9]. - The company is expected to optimize its product categories, membership services, and supply chain management, leading to projected net profits of RMB 5.26 billion, RMB 5.96 billion, and RMB 6.70 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the retail trade industry and has a current H-share price of HKD 51.85, with a market capitalization of RMB 90.20 billion [2]. - The major shareholder is China Tourism Group, holding 50.3% of the shares [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 2.54, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [9]. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for 2022 was RMB 5.03 billion, with projections of RMB 6.71 billion for 2023 and RMB 4.27 billion for 2024, reflecting fluctuations in profitability [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 62.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth expectation of 23.3% [15]. - The report indicates a stable cost structure, with a gross margin of 33% and a decrease in financial expenses [9].

| | | 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 会议资料 2024 年年度股东大会 二〇二五年五月 1. 个人股东亲自出席会议的，应出示本人身份证或者其它能够表明其身份 的有效证件或者证明；代理他人出席会议的，应出示本人有效身份证件、委托人 身份证复印件、股东授权委托书； | 议案十：关于修订《公司章程》的议案 30 | | --- | 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会会议资料 2024 年年度股东大会须知 根据《公司法》《上市公司股东会规则》及《公司章程》等有关规定，为确 保股东大会的正常秩序和议事效率，保证大会顺利进行，特制定须知如下： 一、会议按照《公司法》等有关法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件以 及《公司章程》的有关规定进行，请参会人员自觉维护会议秩序，防止不当行为 影响其他股东合法权益。 二、出席现场会议的股东请在会议召开前30分钟到达会议现场办理签到手续， 并按规定出示及提供如下文件： 2. 法人股东应由法定代表人或者法定代表人委托的代理人出席会议。法定 代表人出席会议的，应出示本人身份证、能证明其具有法定代表人资格的有效证 明、公司营业执照复印件；代理人出席会议的，代理人应出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of favorable policies, such as the 144-hour visa-free transit, has significantly boosted China's inbound and outbound tourism, leading to a rapid recovery in the tourism market and increased consumer spending in duty-free shopping [2] Group 1: Duty-Free Store Policy - The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration issued a notice to enhance the management of city duty-free stores, effective from October 1, 2024 [2][4] - The new regulations exempt duty-free stores from customs duties, import VAT, and consumption tax on imported goods, while domestic goods sold in these stores are treated as exports, allowing for tax refunds [4][6] - The policy aims to promote the healthy and orderly development of city duty-free stores, with a focus on enhancing consumer shopping experiences through reduced costs [6] Group 2: Store Operations and Requirements - City duty-free stores are required to sell goods only to travelers holding valid exit documents and are set to operate under a "buy in-store, pick up at the port" model [9][10] - The stores must undergo customs inspection and approval before commencing operations, with existing stores in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Xiamen adapting to the new regulations starting October 1, 2024 [7][8] - New duty-free stores will be established in cities such as Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen, with a focus on selling a variety of consumer goods [8] Group 3: Tax Benefits and Consumer Impact - The tax exemptions provided by the new policy can significantly lower operational costs for duty-free stores, enhancing their competitive pricing and improving the shopping experience for consumers [6] - For example, a hypothetical case of jade ornaments illustrates that the total tax savings for a duty-free store can amount to 1,228.14 yuan, which translates to lower prices for consumers [5][6] - The policy encourages the sale of domestic products, particularly those that promote Chinese culture, thereby supporting local brands [7]

4 月 29 日晚，中国中免正式公布了 2025 年 1 季度财报。由于不久前海豚投研刚详细点评过年度业绩，且 A 股季报披露的信息相当有限，本次就仅做一个简要的 快评： 1、最差时间已过？收入下滑趋于收窄 ：25 年一季度公司总收入 167.5 亿元，同比跌幅明显收窄到 11% 。虽然尚未完全扭转收入下滑的趋势，但相比之前 3 个季 度 20% 上下的收入跌幅，但 出现了初步的企稳迹象 ，最差的时间可能已经过去。 结合整体离岛免税行业的数据看，在海南旅游旺季、也是对免税行业最重要的 1 季度，海南岛接待游客数增长已同比回正到 6%。但 离岛免税购物人次和消费件数 仍同比分别下降了 28% 和 26%， 可见 "只看不买"、游客到消费者的转化率仍然偏低。 所幸 离岛免税客单价同比显著增长 19.5% 到 1,153 元， 在 持续的免税品销售结构逐渐向高价商品倾斜 的帮助下，虽然销售量仍比较萎靡， 本季离岛免税的销售 额同比跌幅已收窄到 11% 。相比先前 3 个季度 40% 上下的同比跌幅也是显著好转，同样呈现出最差情况已过的信号。 2、毛利率跌幅同样企稳： 伴随着营收跌幅的缩窄，中免在去年四季度呈现的重要 ...

Core Insights - The global duty-free market experienced a slowdown last year, failing to return to pre-pandemic levels, with Hainan's offshore duty-free market also facing challenges due to various factors [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's operating income was RMB 16.75 billion, a year-on-year decline of 10.96% compared to RMB 18.81 billion in the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.94 billion, down 15.98% from RMB 2.31 billion year-on-year [1][2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 4.80 billion, a decrease of 9.52% from RMB 5.30 billion in the previous year [1][2][5] Cost and Expense Management - The company's gross margin showed slight pressure, with operating costs decreasing by approximately 10.51%, which was slightly lower than the revenue decline [2] - Sales expenses were RMB 2.20 billion, down about 9.0% year-on-year, while management expenses were RMB 423 million, down about 11.0% [2] Asset and Equity Position - As of March 31, 2025, the total assets of the company reached RMB 80.46 billion, an increase of 5.51% from the beginning of the year, while equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 56.97 billion, up 3.40% [2] Inventory Management - The company's inventory balance at the end of the reporting period was RMB 15.75 billion, a decrease of approximately 9.21% from RMB 17.35 billion at the end of 2024 [3]

Financial Performance - The group's operating revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was RMB 16,746,050,116.23, a decrease of 10.96% compared to RMB 18,807,168,696.39 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1,937,854,243.40, down 15.98% from RMB 2,306,454,931.34 year-on-year[5] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both RMB 0.9367, reflecting a decline of 15.98% from RMB 1.1148[5] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 16,746,050,116.23, a decrease of 10.9% compared to RMB 18,807,168,696.39 in Q1 2024[15] - In Q1 2025, the operating profit was RMB 2,518,777,915.07, a decrease of 13.4% compared to RMB 2,908,342,158.40 in Q1 2024[16] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 2,055,785,045.68, down 15.6% from RMB 2,435,203,776.12 in Q1 2024[16] - Total comprehensive income for Q1 2025 was RMB 1,989,279,773.44, a decline of 18.6% from RMB 2,444,902,061.57 in Q1 2024[17] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were both RMB 0.9367, compared to RMB 1.1148 in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 16%[17] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 9.52%, amounting to RMB 4,796,979,888.31 compared to RMB 5,301,855,586.86 in the previous year[5] - Cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 was RMB 4,796,979,888.31, down 9.5% from RMB 5,301,855,586.86 in Q1 2024[18] - Cash inflow from operating activities totaled RMB 17,533,010,301.60, a decrease of 10% from RMB 19,479,675,572.83 in the previous year[18] - Cash outflow from operating activities was RMB 12,736,030,413.29, down 10.2% from RMB 14,177,819,985.97 in Q1 2024[18] - The net cash flow from investing activities was -RMB 257,075,174.83 in Q1 2025, an improvement from -RMB 418,523,186.44 in Q1 2024[19] - The net cash flow from financing activities was RMB 419,409,247.12 in Q1 2025, compared to -RMB 256,125,481.32 in Q1 2024, indicating a positive shift[19] - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance as of March 31, 2025, was RMB 39,645,949,676.26, an increase from RMB 36,299,634,567.48 at the end of Q1 2024[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 80,462,334,902.91, an increase of 5.51% from RMB 76,260,373,740.60 at the end of the previous year[5] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 17,542,386,009.83 as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB 15,312,036,850.03 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of 14.5%[14] - Non-current assets totaled RMB 20,687,437,920.30 as of March 31, 2025, an increase of 1.9% from RMB 20,299,935,210.56 as of December 31, 2024[12] - Long-term borrowings rose to RMB 3,233,561,026.15 as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB 2,567,047,228.16 as of December 31, 2024, marking a 26.0% increase[14] Shareholder Information - Shareholders' equity attributable to the parent company increased by 3.40% to RMB 56,967,607,780.59 from RMB 55,096,705,562.22[5] - The total number of ordinary shareholders was 302,747 as of the end of the reporting period[7] - The largest shareholder, China Tourism Group Co., Ltd., holds 50.30% of the shares, totaling 1,040,642,690 shares[8] Inventory and Expenses - The group reported a decrease in inventory, which stood at RMB 15,751,001,779.30, down from RMB 17,348,382,658.40[11] - Total operating costs for Q1 2025 were RMB 14,080,625,510.04, down 10.7% from RMB 15,772,875,379.76 in Q1 2024[15] - The company reported a decrease in research and development expenses to RMB 12,165,946.01 in Q1 2025 from RMB 355,002.40 in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant increase in investment in innovation[15] Government Subsidies - The company received government subsidies amounting to RMB 3,224,834.44, which are closely related to its normal business operations[6] Deferred Tax Assets - Deferred tax assets decreased to RMB 1,078,353,695.92 as of March 31, 2025, from RMB 1,204,425,069.30 as of December 31, 2024, a decline of 10.5%[12]

4月28日，获政策力挺，离境退税相关上市公司股价均表现活跃。 截至发稿前，在A股市场，百联股份（600827.SH）涨1.32%，众信旅游（002707.SZ）涨3.46%，中国中免（601888.SH）等跟涨。 港股方面，相关概念股也同步冲高。中国中免（01880.HK）上涨1.97%，美兰空港（00357.HK）涨1.91%。 消息面上，在离境退税政策实施10周年之际，该政策迎来了全面革新。 4月27日，商务部会同财政部、文化和旅游部等六部门印发《进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费的通知》。《通知》针对退税商店偏少、退税便利度有 待进一步提升等问题，政策从推动退税商店增量扩容、丰富退税商品供给、提升离境退税服务水平三大方面提出8项举措。 《通知》指出，将离境退税起退点从500元下调至200元，现金退税限额由1万元人民币上调至2万元；鼓励各地在大型商圈、步行街等境外旅客聚集地增设退 税商店；强调要增加老字号产品、国货潮品等中国特色优质产品供应。 此外，"即买即退"服务也是此次政策升级的一大亮点。《通知》指出将离境退税"即买即退"服务措施推广至全国，让旅客在购物现场就可以领取退税款。 近年来，随着我国过境免签 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "ice and fire" is evident in China Duty Free Group (China Duty Free), where a new tax refund policy boosts stock prices despite ongoing declines in company performance and valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The State Taxation Administration announced the nationwide implementation of the "immediate purchase and refund" tax refund policy, which simplifies the refund process and stimulates inbound tourism potential [1][7]. - The new policy allows foreign tourists to experience tax refunds more directly, potentially increasing their willingness to spend [8]. - Historical data from Japan indicates that similar tax refund policies significantly enhance inbound tourist spending, suggesting a positive outlook for the Chinese market [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - In 2024, China Duty Free is projected to see a revenue decline of 16.38% to 56.474 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 36.44% to 4.267 billion yuan, indicating significant performance pressure [3][4]. - The company's sales from duty-free goods decreased by 12.58% to approximately 38.666 billion yuan, while taxable goods sales fell by 23.49% to about 17.095 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in online business due to competition [3][4]. - The Hainan region, a core market for the company, experienced a revenue decline of 27.13%, significantly impacting overall performance [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite an increase in market share in Hainan, the overall market contraction means that this gain did not translate into revenue growth [4]. - The competitive landscape has intensified with the opening of new duty-free stores, reducing the company's monopoly advantage [4][10]. - The company's profit margins are under pressure due to increased discounting and rising operational costs, with a notable 76.9% drop in net profit in the fourth quarter [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the Hainan market is expected to rely on policy stimuli, such as increased tax refund limits, and will face challenges from international competition post-border closure [6]. - The overall trend of policy support and consumer recovery suggests a potential for sustained recovery in the duty-free market [10]. - China Duty Free holds an 81.74% market share in the domestic duty-free market, positioning it well to benefit from the anticipated growth in inbound tourism [8][10].