Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 64.86 for Beike [4]. Core Views - Beike, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, is expected to benefit from the 2025 policy goal of stabilizing the market, leading to a recovery in transaction volumes and housing prices. The "three wings" business model is rapidly developing and maturing [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 60,669 million in 2022, with a projected increase to HKD 126,029 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2018 to 2023. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow from HKD -1,386 million in 2022 to HKD 8,547 million in 2026 [6][27]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be HKD 2.41, HKD 2.60, and HKD 3.12 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a reference PE of 23 times for 2025 [4][6]. Business Model and Strategy - Beike is transitioning from a traditional real estate brokerage to a technology-driven integrated housing service platform, having completed approximately 4.4 million property transactions in 2023, with a total transaction value of HKD 31,429 billion [11][27]. - The "one body and three wings" strategy includes core brokerage services and expansion into home decoration, rental services, and other housing-related services, which are becoming significant growth drivers [27][28]. Market Position - Beike holds approximately 25% market share in the existing housing brokerage sector, with significant growth potential as the market shifts towards existing homes. The company maintains a strong bargaining position with commission rates consistently above industry averages [11][27]. - The new housing brokerage business is also performing well, with Beike's quality coverage and de-stocking capabilities allowing it to outperform the market [11][27]. Growth Drivers - The non-brokerage business segments, particularly home decoration and rental services, are increasingly contributing to revenue, with their combined revenue share rising to 36% in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 25% in 2023 [27][28]. - The company has seen a significant rebound in net profit, achieving HKD 59 billion in 2023, a 245% increase in adjusted net profit compared to the previous year, driven by improved transaction volumes and profitability in non-brokerage services [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 64.86 for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the 2025 policy goal of stabilizing the market, which is expected to lead to a recovery in transaction volumes and housing prices. The "three wings" business model is rapidly developing and maturing [4][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 60,669 million in 2022, with a projected increase to HKD 126,029 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2018 to 2023. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow from HKD 5,883 million in 2023 to HKD 8,547 million in 2026 [6][27]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be HKD 2.41, HKD 2.60, and HKD 3.12 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a reference PE of 23 times for the target price calculation [4]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is transforming from a traditional real estate agency to a technology-driven integrated residential service platform, leveraging a digital infrastructure that includes the ACN network and property dictionary [11]. - The "one body and three wings" strategy includes core brokerage services and expansion into home decoration, rental services, and development services, which are becoming significant growth drivers [27][11]. Market Position - The company holds approximately 25% market share in the existing housing brokerage business, with significant growth potential as it expands into lower-tier cities [11]. - The company completed around 4.4 million property transactions in 2023, with a total transaction value of HKD 31,429 billion, indicating strong market presence [11]. Revenue Composition - The revenue from non-brokerage businesses has been increasing, contributing 25% in 2023 and projected to rise to 36% in 2024, highlighting the diversification of income sources [28][27]. - The company’s gross margin has improved since 2022, driven by higher profitability from existing housing and home decoration services [32]. Management and Governance - The company has a dual-class share structure, with the core management team holding nearly 50% of the voting rights, ensuring strong governance and strategic direction [22][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is a bullish outlook on KE Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BEKE) as signs of stabilization emerge in China's property market [1] - The analysis acknowledges that while the housing market in China is showing some stabilization, it is expected to remain challenging due to primary market conditions [1] Group 2 - Astrada Advisors specializes in delivering actionable recommendations that enhance portfolio performance and uncover alpha opportunities, backed by a strong track record in investment research [1] - The firm has expertise across technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors in North America and Asia, allowing it to identify high-potential investments and navigate complex industries [1] - Astrada Advisors integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights to provide a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes [1]

Company Overview - KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) shares increased by 5.4% to close at $20.52, with notable trading volume compared to typical sessions, and a total gain of 17.5% over the past four weeks [1][2] Growth Drivers - The company is benefiting from the recovery of China's real estate market, increased transaction volumes, strategic expansion of its agent network, technology-driven efficiencies, supportive government policies, and improved corporate governance [2] Earnings Expectations - BEKE is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.31 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 55%. Revenue is expected to reach $4.01 billion, which is a 41% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Stock Performance Insights - Trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, indicating that the current earnings growth expectations may signal potential strength in the stock [3] Consensus and Market Position - The consensus EPS estimate for BEKE has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting that the stock's price may not continue to rise without changes in earnings estimates [4] - KE Holdings holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook in the market [4]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | A 股份類別 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | | | | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) 2025年1月31日 | 3,479,616,986 | | 0 | | | 3,479,616,986 | | 1). 購回股份 (股份購回並註銷) | -34,177,065 | 0.943 % | | USD | ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年1月27日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (2423.HK) [5] Core Views - Beike is a leading real estate transaction and service platform in China, having transitioned from a traditional real estate agency to a digital service platform [10][12] - The company has achieved profitability in 2023, with revenue growth from 46 billion RMB in 2019 to 77.8 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 14% [22][24] - Beike's platform has significant advantages, with over 48,000 stores and 476,000 agents, primarily serving high-tier cities [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Beike originated from the establishment of Lianjia in 2001 and officially launched Beike Zhaofang in 2018, becoming the first stock of residential services in China listed on the NYSE in 2020 and later on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022 [10] - The company has implemented a "one body, three wings" strategy to enhance its service offerings [10][12] Financial Analysis - Revenue has stabilized and increased, with a net profit of 5.9 billion RMB in 2023 and a Non-GAAP net profit of 9.8 billion RMB [22] - The company expects adjusted net profits of 8.7 billion RMB in 2024, 9.8 billion RMB in 2025, and 11.7 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [4][3] Business Segments - The existing home business contributes significantly to revenue, with a gross profit margin of around 40%, while the new home business contributes about 25% [2] - The home decoration and rental services are rapidly growing, with the rental service contributing 15.6% of revenue as of Q3 2024 [24][30] Market Position - Beike holds a leading market share in the fragmented real estate brokerage industry, with a 9.7% market share based on transaction volume [54] - The platform's monthly active users reached 46.2 million, with a strong focus on high-tier city clients [3][55] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its home decoration business and leveraging its platform to enhance service offerings, aiming for nationwide scalability [2][3] - Beike's cash position is robust, with a total of 81 billion RMB in cash and equivalents as of September 2024, allowing for effective shareholder returns through buybacks [38]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年1月22日 | 3,479,616,986 | | 0 | | 3,479,616,986 | | 1). 其他 (請註明) | | | % | | | | | 見B部分 | | | | | | | | 變 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年1月23日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年1月22日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | ...