Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth with adjusted profits slightly exceeding expectations for Q1 2025, achieving a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [8] - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) reached 843.7 billion yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year, driven by growth in various business segments [8] - The report highlights the expansion of the second-hand housing market and the increase in active stores and agents, with a 28.1% year-on-year growth in total transaction value for second-hand housing [8] - The new housing business also saw significant growth, with transaction value increasing by 53.0% year-on-year, and a slight improvement in commission rates [8] - The home decoration business is steadily developing, with profit margins improving [8] - Future performance is expected to benefit from the increasing turnover rate in the second-hand housing market and the growth of the home decoration business, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 9.7 billion, 11.6 billion, and 13.6 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 77.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 147.4 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.6% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to increase significantly from 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 1.63 yuan for 2023, increasing to 2.91 yuan by 2027 [1]

5月15日美股盘前，贝壳（BEKE.US）（02423.HK）公布了2025年第一季度的财报，表现超市场预期。 财报显示，今年一季度，贝壳实现总交易额8437亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长34%；总收入为233 亿元，同比增加42.4%。 这主要得益于存量房与新房业务的强劲表现，以及非房产交易服务（家装、租赁等）的快速扩张。 具体来看，贝壳存量房业务交易额5803亿元，同比增长28.1%，净收入为69亿元，同比增长20.0%；新 房业务交易额达2322亿元，同比增长53.0%，净收入达81亿元，同比增长64.2%。 非房产交易服务方面，一季度净收入同比增长46.2%，占总净收入的比例达35.9%。 其中，房屋租赁服务一季度净收入达51亿元，同比增长93.8%，主要由于省心租模式下的租赁房源数目 增加。此外，家装家居的净收入29亿元，同比增长22.3%；新兴业务及其他收入则同比下滑50%，至3.5 亿元。 贝壳指出，2025年4月，贝壳二手房交易额同比增长10-15%；5月到目前为止增长百分之十几；由于 2024年的高基数，预计6月同比将下降。考虑到贸易关税的不确定影响，预计2025年第二季度的二手房 交易额同 ...

Group 1 - HHLR Advisors reported a total market value increase from $2.887 billion to $3.539 billion, a nearly 23% rise in Q1 2025 [1] - HHLR's top ten holdings include Pinduoduo, Alibaba, Futu Holdings, BeiGene, NetEase, Beike, Legend Biotech, JD.com, Vipshop, and WNS Holdings, with 9 out of 10 being Chinese concept stocks [1][2] - HHLR made new investments in 10 companies including Atour Group, Huazhu Group, Baidu, and Li Auto, with significant increases in holdings for Yum China, Li Auto, and Baidu [2] Group 2 - Jinglin Asset Management's Hong Kong subsidiary reported a total market value of $3.228 billion, showing an increase from the previous year [3] - Jinglin's new investments include Alibaba and Hesai Technology, while it increased holdings in Meta, Beike, TSMC, and New Oriental, and reduced positions in Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia [3] - The market value increase for both HHLR and Jinglin is attributed to the revaluation of Chinese concept stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 13.33% in Q1 2025 [4] Group 3 - The rapid development of AI models like DeepSeek is reshaping the valuation of Chinese tech companies, moving away from traditional pricing models that undervalued growth potential [5] - The shift in valuation logic is driven by the transition of Chinese AI companies from relying on foreign platforms to establishing their own technological capabilities [5]

又到了巨头持仓逐渐揭晓的时刻。 5月16日，高瓴旗下HHLR Advisors公布2025年一季度美股持仓数据。 13F文件显示，高瓴旗下独立且专注于二级市场投资的基金管理平台HHLR Advisors一季度新进和增持了近20 只股票，持仓总市值从上季度末28.87亿美元增至35.39亿美元，增幅近23%。 截至2025年一季度末，HHLR前十大重仓股为：拼多多、阿里巴巴、富途控股、百济神州、网易、贝壳、传奇 生物、京东、唯品会、WNS HLDGS LTD，中概股占到9席。 此外，私募巨头景林资产的海外子公司景林资产管理香港有限公司也在近期提交了截至2025年一季度末的美股 持仓数据，数据显示，其截至今年一季度末的持仓总市值为32.28亿美元，较去年底有所增加，一季度新进阿 里巴巴、禾赛科技等。 新进买入了百度、理想等10家公司 数据显示，一季度HHLR继续加大中国资产配置，新进买入的亚朵集团、华住集团、百度、玉柴国际、理想汽 车、BOSS直聘、亿咖通科技等10家公司。从持仓占比来看，今年一季度期间，HHLR新进买入百胜中国、理 想汽车、百度、BOSS直聘、华住等持仓占比相比较大。 据了解，截至5月14日，H ...

2025年第一季度的移动月活跃用户数量平均为4450万名，而2024年同期为4770万名。 贝壳董事会主席兼首席执行官彭永东先生表示，"在稳定的市场表现和我们的增长策略持续显效的基础 上，第一季度我们的业务延续了高速增长，我们的总交易额同比增长34.0%，净收入同比增长42.4%。 房产交易服务继续展现大幅的超市场表现。平台持续赋能更多产业伙伴，活跃门店和活跃经纪人数量同 比分别显著增长29.6%和23.0%，人效、店效表现也在改善。家装家居业务收入稳健增长，贡献利润率 创新高，客户体验改善和效率提升初见成效。到第一季度末房屋租赁服务在管房源量超过50万套，经营 能力持续改善。我们也在AI应用上持续推进，在C端和B端都落地了多项智能工具，带来更好的客户体 验和为服务者提效助力。" "展望未来，我们对"一体三翼"战略下的公司长期发展充满信心，并将坚定地在AI应用上持续投入。同 时，今年我们会在其他类型投入上更加审慎，关注投入产出比，筑牢安全经营底线，保障支持本公司长 期愿景的股东获得本公司可持续发展的回报。"彭先生总结道。 贝壳执行董事兼首席财务官徐涛先生进一步表示，"一季度的市场表现非常稳健，延续了去年9月份 ...

Core Insights - KE Holdings Inc. ("Beike") reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with total transaction value increasing by 34.0% year-over-year and net revenues rising by 42.4% [3][5][7] - The company continues to expand its housing transaction services, with significant growth in active stores and agents, and is focusing on AI applications to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [3][4][5] Business and Financial Highlights - Net revenues reached RMB 23.3 billion (US$ 3.2 billion), up 42.4% year-over-year, driven by growth in both existing and new home transaction services [5][8] - Gross transaction value (GTV) was RMB 843.7 billion (US$ 116.3 billion), an increase of 34.0% year-over-year, with existing home transactions growing by 28.1% and new home transactions by 53.0% [7][8] - Home rental services saw a remarkable increase in net revenues, reaching RMB 5.1 billion (US$ 0.7 billion), up 93.8% year-over-year [5][8] Operational Efficiency - Operating expenses decreased by 31.3% quarter-over-quarter to RMB 4.2 billion (US$ 0.6 billion), contributing to improved profitability [5][10] - Net income for Q1 2025 was RMB 855 million (US$ 118 million), a 97.9% increase year-over-year, while adjusted net income was RMB 1,393 million (US$ 192 million) [5][16][17] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to its "One Body, Three Wings" strategy, emphasizing long-term development and prudent investment in AI applications [3][4][8] - Share repurchase program continues, with approximately US$ 139 million allocated to buybacks in Q1 2025, representing about 0.6% of total issued shares [6][21] Market Context - The overall market for new home sales remained stable, with national sales relatively flat year-over-year, contrasting with significant declines in the previous year [4][5] - The company is leveraging its platform to empower industry partners, resulting in a notable increase in the number of active stores and agents by 29.6% and 23.0% year-over-year, respectively [3][5]

Financial Performance - Total transaction value for Q1 2025 reached RMB 843.7 billion (USD 116.3 billion), a year-on-year increase of 34.0%[6] - Net revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 23.3 billion (USD 3.2 billion), representing a year-on-year growth of 42.4%[6] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 855 million (USD 118 million), a significant increase of 97.9% year-on-year[8] - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 591 million (USD 81 million), compared to RMB 12 million in Q1 2024, reflecting improved operating leverage[18] - The gross profit increased by 17.0% from RMB 4.1 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 4.8 billion (USD 700 million) in Q1 2025, with a gross margin decrease to 20.7% from 25.2%[16] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 855 million (USD 118 million), compared to RMB 432 million in Q1 2024[21] - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net revenue reached RMB 23.33 billion, representing a 42.5% increase compared to RMB 16.38 billion for the same period in 2024[46] - The net profit for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 855.32 million, compared to RMB 432.12 million for the same period in 2024, indicating a growth of 97.7%[46] Business Growth - The number of active stores as of March 31, 2025, was 55,210, an increase of 29.6% year-on-year[8] - The number of active agents reached 490,862, up 23.0% compared to the same period last year[8] - The net income from the rental service business reached a record high of RMB 5.1 billion, growing 93.8% year-on-year[10] - The net income from existing home business increased by 20.0% from RMB 5.7 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 6.9 billion (USD 900 million) in Q1 2025[12] - The total transaction value of existing home business rose by 28.1% from RMB 453.2 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 580.3 billion (USD 80 billion) in Q1 2025[12] - The net income from new home business surged by 64.2% from RMB 4.9 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 8.1 billion (USD 1.1 billion) in Q1 2025[12] - The net income from home decoration and furnishing increased by 22.3% from RMB 2.4 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 2.9 billion (USD 400 million) in Q1 2025[12] Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses for Q1 2025 were RMB 4.2 billion, a decrease of 31.3% compared to the previous quarter[10] - Operating costs rose by 51.0% from RMB 12.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 18.5 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in Q1 2025[13] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 1.393 billion (USD 192 million), remaining roughly flat year-on-year[8] - The adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 1.148 billion (USD 158 million), up from RMB 960 million in Q1 2024[20] Shareholder Information - The company repurchased approximately USD 139 million worth of shares, accounting for about 0.6% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024[11] - The company has a share repurchase plan allowing for the purchase of up to USD 3 billion of Class A ordinary shares and/or American Depositary Shares by August 31, 2025, with approximately 116.6 million American Depositary Shares repurchased for a total consideration of approximately USD 1.7648 billion as of March 31, 2025[27] - For Q1 2025, the basic and diluted earnings per American Depositary Share attributable to shareholders of Beike Holdings were RMB 0.76 (USD 0.10) and RMB 0.73 (USD 0.10), compared to RMB 0.38 and RMB 0.37 in the same period of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 100%[25] Cash and Investments - As of March 31, 2025, the company's cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 54.8 billion (USD 7.6 billion)[26] - Cash and cash equivalents increased from RMB 11.44 billion as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 12.77 billion as of March 31, 2025[40] - The company’s long-term investments increased from RMB 23.79 billion as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 27.62 billion as of March 31, 2025[40] Non-GAAP Metrics - The company uses non-GAAP financial metrics, including adjusted operating profit, adjusted net income, and adjusted EBITDA, to assess its performance and operational planning[32] - The adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of Beike Holdings excludes certain expenses, providing a clearer view of the company's operational performance[9] - The company believes that non-GAAP financial metrics help identify potential business trends that may be distorted by certain expenses included in net income[32] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP financial metrics should not be considered in isolation and encourages investors to review these metrics alongside GAAP indicators[33] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI applications and maintain a cautious approach to other types of investments[10] - The company will hold an earnings conference call on May 15, 2025, to discuss financial performance[29] - Forward-looking statements in the announcement are identified by terms such as "will," "expect," "estimate," and involve inherent risks and uncertainties[36] - The announcement includes a disclaimer regarding the potential differences between actual performance and forward-looking statements due to various factors, including competition and economic conditions[36] Operational Insights - The company operates a leading online and offline integrated real estate transaction and service platform, with over 23 years of operational experience since the establishment of its brand, Lianjia[35] - The company aims to reshape service operation models to provide more efficient real estate transaction and living services, including second-hand and new home transactions, rentals, and home decoration[35] - The company relies on the integrity of its brokerage brands, stores, and agents on its platform, which is crucial for its operational success[36] - The company has established a comprehensive infrastructure and standards that support its rapid and sustainable development[35] Comprehensive Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, total assets amounted to RMB 133.15 billion, while total liabilities were RMB 61.70 billion, resulting in total equity of RMB 71.45 billion[40][42][43] - The total current liabilities remained stable at RMB 52.74 billion as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 52.76 billion as of March 31, 2025[42] - The company’s capital reserve decreased from RMB 72.46 billion as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 68.62 billion as of March 31, 2025[43]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate "de-inventory" strategy is primarily driven by the reversal of supply-demand dynamics and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing and an extended inventory digestion cycle [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current real estate cycle has seen a significant change in supply-demand relationships, officially entering a de-inventory phase as of July 2023, with over 30 months of continuous decline in sales volume and price [2][4]. - The scale of housing and inventory in this cycle is larger compared to previous downturns, with substantial monetary and fiscal policy support already in place since 2024 [2][4]. Group 2: Policy and Quality Improvement - The focus of housing development has shifted from mere availability to quality, with government initiatives aimed at increasing the supply of "good houses" and enhancing construction standards [2][3]. - New national standards for residential projects, effective from March 31, 2025, will enforce stricter requirements on various aspects of housing construction, leading to improved quality in new residential buildings [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and a good grasp of improvement-oriented customer demand, such as Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [1][4]. - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and New City Holdings, are also highlighted [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4].

自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来，中美之间多次互相提高关税，目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦的升温，中美两国 之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是：① 近日美国财政部长曾表示， 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市，作为两国间谈判的筹码之一；② 2月21日， 白宫发布了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中，也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段，美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上，中概退市威胁并非没有先例： 2020年~2022年间美国政 府就曾以HFCAA法案下，无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因，正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议，中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生，但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市，后有如中国石油等在争端缓解后仍 主动选择退市。 由此可见，无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁止美国资金投资中国资产，虽然最终落地的概率应当非常小，但属于存在先例、不能视而不见的"黑天鹅"风险。 海 ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, total transaction value reached RMB 3,349.4 billion, a 6.6% increase from RMB 3,142.9 billion in 2023[8] - Net revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 93.5 billion, up 20.2% from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023[8] - Net profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 4,078.18 million, compared to RMB 5,889.60 million in 2023[8] - Adjusted net profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 7,211 million, down from RMB 9,798 million in 2023[8] - The net revenue from existing housing business remained stable at RMB 28.2 billion in 2024, compared to RMB 28.0 billion in 2023, with total transaction value increasing by 10.8% to RMB 2246.5 billion[79] - The net revenue from home decoration services grew by 36.1% to RMB 14.8 billion in 2024, up from RMB 10.9 billion in 2023[81] - The net revenue from rental services surged by 135.0% to RMB 14.3 billion in 2024, compared to RMB 6.1 billion in 2023[81] - Operating costs for 2024 increased by 25.8% to RMB 70.5 billion from RMB 56.1 billion in 2023[80] - Gross profit rose by 5.6% from RMB 21.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.9 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 24.6% in 2024 compared to 27.9% in 2023[88] Operational Metrics - The number of stores increased to 51,573 as of December 31, 2024, representing a 17.7% growth from 43,817 stores in 2023[8] - Active agents increased to 499,937 as of December 31, 2024, a 16.9% rise from 427,656 agents in 2023[8] - The average monthly active users reached 43.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, unchanged from the same period in 2023[8] - Approximately 6 million verified second-hand housing listings are available on the platform as of December 31, 2024[25] - The platform completed over 4.9 million property transactions in 2024, with a total transaction value of RMB 334.94 billion (approximately USD 45.89 billion) [12] Market Presence and Strategy - The company aims to reshape service provider operating models to provide more efficient services for consumers in the real estate market [13] - The company’s platform serves as an innovative sales channel for real estate developers and benefits other ecosystem participants, such as home decoration service providers [16] - The company is focused on enhancing its understanding of platform participants through active online and offline interactions [12] - The company’s strategic initiatives are aimed at expanding market reach and improving service delivery in the real estate industry [12] - The company aims to provide a one-stop solution to meet customer needs throughout the entire housing cycle and plans to further expand its service categories[20] Revenue Sources - The company has five main revenue sources: existing home business, new home business, home decoration and furnishing, rental services, and emerging businesses and others[19] - The total transaction value for existing home sales was RMB 2,246.5 billion, a 10.8% increase from RMB 2,028.0 billion in 2023[8] - The total transaction value for new home sales was RMB 970.0 billion, a 3.3% decrease from RMB 1,003.0 billion in 2023[8] - The total transaction value for home decoration and furniture reached RMB 16.9 billion, a 27.3% increase from RMB 13.3 billion in 2023[8] Technology and Innovation - The company has developed a scalable infrastructure that includes SaaS systems, client applications, and community engagement networks [16] - The integration of AI technology and applications is a key component of the company's infrastructure, enhancing service delivery across various stages of real estate transactions[26] - The company has established a comprehensive AI development platform to support various applications in the real estate sector[65] - The company has developed AI applications to enhance consumer experience and service efficiency, including AI assistants for property management and design[65][66] - The company has introduced VR technology into the real estate transaction and service industry in China, enhancing user experience and efficiency in property matching[71] Community and Agent Engagement - The deep community network is becoming a crucial foundation for the company's one-stop living services, helping agents transition into "living" consultants[33] - The company encourages agents to specialize in their local areas, allowing them to become experts in nearby properties and manage listings effectively[23] - The ACN network facilitates collaboration among agents, allowing for automatic commission distribution based on roles in property transactions, enhancing service efficiency and customer experience[21] - The company emphasizes training for agents through a combination of online courses, offline training, and practical tasks to enhance service quality[34] Financial Position and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments increased from RMB 601 billion as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 616 billion as of December 31, 2024[98] - The net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 9,447,137,000, a decrease from RMB 11,414,244,000 in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 17.3%[109] - The net cash used in investing activities for 2024 was RMB 9,378,025,000, significantly higher than RMB 3,977,440,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of approximately 135.5%[109] - The total cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2024 were RMB 20,301,414,000, down from RMB 25,857,461,000 at the end of 2023, a decrease of approximately 21.5%[109] Governance and Leadership - The company has a strong governance structure with experienced company secretaries overseeing compliance and investor relations[155][157] - The board of directors includes independent non-executive directors with extensive experience in finance and management, such as Zhu Hansong and Wu Jun[147][149] - The company has a strong leadership team with diverse backgrounds in technology, finance, and real estate, enhancing its strategic capabilities[136][141] - The management team is responsible for the daily operations of the business, including key positions held by Peng Yongdong as CEO and Xu Tao as CFO[152][154] Risks and Challenges - The business is subject to various risks, including regulatory constraints in the real estate sector and potential negative impacts on reputation and operational performance if consumer satisfaction declines[164] - Economic conditions significantly affect the company's business, with severe global or Chinese economic downturns potentially having a major adverse impact on financial performance[164] - The company faces challenges in ensuring compliance with evolving cybersecurity and data privacy laws in China, which could impact its reputation and operational outcomes[164] Shareholder Information - The company declared a final cash dividend of $0.117 per ordinary share or $0.351 per American depositary share for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaling approximately $400 million[192] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company plans to declare a final cash dividend of $0.12 per ordinary share or $0.36 per American depositary share, also totaling approximately $400 million[192] - The company's dual-class voting structure includes Class A ordinary shares and Class B ordinary shares, with Class A shares granting one vote per share and Class B shares granting ten votes per share[174]