以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 业绩经营情况 机构分析显示，贝壳2025年第四季度财报预计近期发布。美银证券等机构预测，受高基数影响，季度收 入可能同比下降，但通过成本优化和新业务改善，盈利有望复苏。 资金动向 贝壳自2022年启动的回购计划已扩大至50亿美元，截至2025年三季度末累计回购约23亿美元。2026年1 月披露显示，公司仍在进行股份购回并拟注销，彰显现金流实力。 经济观察网 贝壳在2026年初有多项动态值得关注，包括平台规则调整、2025年第四季度财报预期以及 股份回购计划的持续执行。 近期事件 贝壳计划于2026年3月1日起实施人才流转规则调整，取消经纪人在品牌、地域等方面的流动限制，以提 升平台灵活性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The BoShi Hong Kong Internet ETF (159568) has shown positive performance since its inception, with significant increases in both share count and fund size in 2025 [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of February 11, 2024, the BoShi Hong Kong Internet ETF closed with a gain of 0.78%, with a trading volume of 53.48 million yuan [1]. - The fund was established on February 8, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - The latest share count is 324 million, with a total fund size of 539 million yuan, reflecting a 27.57% increase in shares and a 27.24% increase in size since December 31, 2025 [1]. Liquidity Metrics - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a trading volume of 2.066 billion yuan, averaging 103 million yuan per day [1]. - In the year to date, the ETF has seen a total trading volume of 3.446 billion yuan over 28 trading days, averaging 123 million yuan per day [1]. Fund Management - The current fund manager, Li Qingyang, has managed the ETF since its inception, achieving a return of 66.36% during his tenure [2]. - The ETF's top holdings include Tencent Holdings (15.35%), Alibaba-W (14.43%), Xiaomi Group-W (13.96%), and Meituan-W (12.30%), among others [2].

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (Beike), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings is expected to experience a revenue decline of 28.5% YoY in 4Q25, with anticipated revenue of RMB22.2 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB427 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.9% [1]. - The company is well-positioned to expand its market share in the home transaction business due to its strong technological capabilities, superior service quality, and established agent cooperation network [1]. - For FY26E, the report forecasts a recovery in earnings driven by cost optimization measures and profitability improvements in new businesses, projecting a non-GAAP net profit of RMB7.0 billion, which represents a 42% YoY growth [1]. - The target price has been raised by 5% to US$21.80, reflecting a positive long-term operating cash flow outlook [1][3]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, revenue is reported at RMB77.8 billion, with a YoY growth of 28.2%. The adjusted net profit is RMB9.8 billion, showing a significant growth of 244.7% [2]. - The revenue forecast for FY25E is RMB94.6 billion, with a slight YoY growth of 1.3%, while the adjusted net profit is expected to decline to RMB4.9 billion, a decrease of 31.5% [2]. - The report projects a revenue of RMB91.5 billion for FY26E, with an adjusted net profit of RMB7.0 billion, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 52.2x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 29.4x in FY26E and further to 22.5x in FY27E, suggesting an improving valuation as earnings recover [2][14]. - The SOTP-based valuation for Beike Core is estimated at US$20.9 per ADS, with an additional US$0.9 per ADS for Shengdu, leading to a total valuation of US$21.80 per ADS [1][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].

Group 1 - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratio are China Telecom (00728) at 71.46%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 68.82%, and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at 68.17% [1] - The latest holding ratio rankings for the top 20 companies show significant ownership levels, with China Telecom leading at 99.18 billion shares [1] - The recent five trading days saw Tencent Holdings (00700) increase its holding by 51.95 billion, Southbound Hang Seng Technology (03033) by 17.79 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) by 15.84 billion [1] Group 2 - The top three companies with the largest decrease in holdings over the last five trading days are Yingfu Fund (02800) with a decrease of 35.48 billion, SMIC (00981) with a decrease of 23.60 billion, and Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818) with a decrease of 6.58 billion [3] - Other notable companies in the reduction list include Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a decrease of 6.56 billion and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with a decrease of 5.59 billion [3] - The data reflects significant trading activity and shifts in investor sentiment within the Hong Kong stock market [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

金吾财讯 | 明星科网股普遍受压，阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌3.38%，京东健康(06618)跌3.38%，哔哩哔哩- W(09626)跌3.38%，快手-W(01024)跌2.88%，贝壳-W(02423)跌2.33%，百度集团-SW(09888)跌2.13%， 网易-S(09999)跌2.08%。 隔晚亚马逊(AMZN)盘后跌近10%，司宣布今年资本支出将达到惊人的2000亿美元，因此影响营业利润 指引低于预期。去年该公司的资本支出约为1300亿美元，而分析师的事前预期仅为1500亿美元。 金吾财讯 | 明星科网股普遍受压，阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌3.38%，京东健康(06618)跌3.38%，哔哩哔哩- W(09626)跌3.38%，快手-W(01024)跌2.88%，贝壳-W(02423)跌2.33%，百度集团-SW(09888)跌2.13%， 网易-S(09999)跌2.08%。 隔晚亚马逊(AMZN)盘后跌近10%，司宣布今年资本支出将达到惊人的2000亿美元，因此影响营业利润 指引低于预期。去年该公司的资本支出约为1300亿美元，而分析师的事前预期仅为1500亿美元。 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by stockholding ratio in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are China Telecom (71.39%), Gree Power Environmental (68.80%), and Haotian International Construction Investment (67.58%) [1] - Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and Pop Mart have seen the largest increases in stockholding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +36.02 billion, +22.89 billion, and +13.06 billion respectively [1] - Conversely, SMIC, Alibaba-W, and Zijin Mining International experienced the largest decreases in stockholding amounts, with reductions of -18.54 billion, -15.48 billion, and -11.14 billion respectively [2] Stockholding Ratios - The latest stockholding ratios for the top 20 companies in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are as follows: - China Telecom (00728): 99.09 million shares, 71.39% - Gree Power Environmental (01330): 2.78 million shares, 68.80% - Haotian International Construction Investment (01341): 75.00 million shares, 67.58% - Other notable companies include: - Kaisa New Energy (01108): 67.54% - Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection (01065): 66.84% [1] Recent Stock Increases - The top 10 companies with the largest stockholding increases in the last five trading days are: - Tencent Holdings (00700): +36.02 billion, +6.44 million shares - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): +22.89 billion, +6.55 million shares - Pop Mart (09992): +13.06 billion, +5.39 million shares - Other significant increases include: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398): +11.23 billion - China Merchants Bank (03968): +11.16 billion [1] Recent Stock Decreases - The top 10 companies with the largest stockholding decreases in the last five trading days are: - SMIC (00981): -18.54 billion, -2.75 million shares - Alibaba-W (09988): -15.48 billion, -0.97 million shares - Zijin Mining International (02259): -11.14 billion, -0.54 million shares - Other notable decreases include: - Zijin Mining (02899): -10.96 billion - Jiangxi Copper (00358): -6.97 billion [2]