Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure but shows potential for improvement in emerging business profit margins [7] - The total transaction volume (GTV) for 2025 is projected at 31.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with net income of 94.6 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.2% [7] - The company emphasizes long-term shareholder returns, with a total of 1.2 billion USD allocated for share buybacks and cash dividends, a 9% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: 93,457 million yuan - 2025: 94,580 million yuan - 2026E: 86,976 million yuan (down 8.04% year-on-year) - 2027E: 89,777 million yuan (up 3.22% year-on-year) - 2028E: 94,436 million yuan (up 5.19% year-on-year) [6][8] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,065 million yuan - 2025: 2,994 million yuan (down 26.35% year-on-year) - 2026E: 3,907 million yuan (up 30.50% year-on-year) - 2027E: 4,474 million yuan (up 14.51% year-on-year) - 2028E: 5,086 million yuan (up 13.68% year-on-year) [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.70% in 2024 to 6.37% in 2028 [6] Business Segment Performance - The real estate brokerage segment saw a decline in GTV, with a 4.2% drop in existing home transactions and an 8.2% drop in new home transactions for 2025 [7] - The home decoration and rental segments showed significant growth, with revenues increasing by 4.4% and 53% respectively, indicating improved profitability [7]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -0.2% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices increased by 0.2% and decreased by -0.5%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -0.4% and 0.3%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 14th in performance[46] New Housing Market - In the week from March 7 to March 13, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.637 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%[8] - Cumulative new housing transactions from March 1 to March 13, 2026, totaled 2.646 million square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year[8] - Year-to-date cumulative transactions as of March 13, 2026, reached 11.962 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.0%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.623 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 12.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%[15] - Cumulative second-hand housing transactions from March 1 to March 13, 2026, amounted to 2.857 million square meters, down 15.3% year-on-year[15] - Year-to-date cumulative transactions as of March 13, 2026, reached 13.544 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.7%[15] Inventory and Depletion - The cumulative inventory of new housing in 13 cities was 76.659 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%[21] - The new housing depletion cycle in these cities was 25.5 months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 months and a year-on-year increase of 9.3 months[21] Land Market - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1.1901 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 55.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%[38] - The average land price was 941 yuan per square meter, down 16.4% month-on-month and 12.8% year-on-year[38] - Year-to-date cumulative land transaction area as of March 15, 2026, was 20.2622 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include property management: Greentown Service; commercial management: China Resources Vientiane Life; leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][16]. Core Insights - The company experienced a 28.7% year-over-year decline in total revenue for Q4, amounting to 22.2 billion RMB, primarily due to a high base in 2024. The adjusted net profit was 520 million RMB, which was 12% below expectations due to one-time personnel optimization costs of approximately 700 million RMB [1][5]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in Q1, with total revenue expected to decline by 21% year-over-year, but with signs of recovery in the real estate market, particularly in Shanghai [1][2]. - The company is expected to enhance its market share in the brokerage business by 1-2.5 percentage points in 2026, supported by ongoing store layout optimization and improved employee efficiency [1][2]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - Total revenue for Q4 was 22.2 billion RMB, down 28.7% year-over-year, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Revenue from existing homes, new homes, home decoration, and rental services decreased by 39%, 44%, 12%, and increased by 18% respectively. The gross margin fell by 1.6 percentage points to 21.4% due to a lower proportion of high-margin brokerage income [1][11]. Existing Home Business - The existing home GTV decreased by 35% in Q4, which was 0.7% worse than expected. Revenue from this segment fell by 39%, primarily due to a decline in monetization rates and an increase in non-chain GTV. However, signs of marginal improvement are expected in Q1 2026, with a potential stabilization in prices [2][12]. Home Decoration Business - Revenue from the home decoration segment decreased by 12% in Q4, but losses narrowed to approximately 500 million RMB compared to 2 billion RMB in 2024. The report expects improvements in this segment as the existing home market recovers [3][12]. Rental Business - The rental revenue grew by 18% in Q4, with profits improving to around 400 million RMB. The number of managed rental units exceeded 700,000, a 62% year-over-year increase. The report suggests that the rental business can partially offset the weakness in the overall real estate market [4][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been reduced by 11.7% and 10.2% respectively, primarily due to changes in rental revenue recognition. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been slightly lowered to 6.29 billion RMB and 7.21 billion RMB respectively. The report introduces a forecast for 2028, projecting revenues of 85.82 billion RMB and adjusted net profits of 7.66 billion RMB [5][12][14]. - Target prices are set at 21.24 USD for the US stock and 55.17 HKD for the Hong Kong stock, reflecting a 27.3 times PE ratio for 2026, which is above the global comparable companies' average of 22.3 times [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (Beike) with a target price of US$23.00, reflecting a 36.1% upside from the current price of US$16.90 [3][6]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings' 4Q25 revenue declined by 28.7% year-over-year to RMB22.2 billion, aligning with forecasts, while non-GAAP net profit fell 61.5% year-over-year to RMB0.5 billion, exceeding the forecast of RMB0.4 billion [1]. - For 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 1% year-over-year, but non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline by 30% due to industry challenges [1]. - The company anticipates a recovery in earnings for 2026, with a forecasted non-GAAP net income of RMB7.0 billion, indicating a 39% year-over-year growth [1]. Financial Performance - In FY25, Ke Holdings reported total revenue of RMB94.58 billion, with a slight growth of 1.2% year-over-year, while net profit decreased to RMB2.99 billion, down 26.4% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 was RMB5.02 billion, reflecting a 30.4% decline year-over-year [2]. - The company expects revenue for FY26 to be RMB89.98 billion, a decrease of 4.9% year-over-year, with a projected recovery in FY27 and FY28 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The report highlights improvements in operational efficiency, with total non-GAAP operating expenses decreasing from RMB5.6 billion in 4Q24 to RMB4.5 billion in 4Q25 [1]. - The contribution margin for home renovation and furnishing services improved to 31.4% in 2025, indicating enhanced operating efficiency [1]. Market Position - Ke Holdings continues to gain market share in the existing home transaction (EHT) business, with a 17% year-over-year decline in orders, which is better than the overall market performance [1]. - The company’s emerging businesses, including home renovation and furnishing, contributed significantly to total revenue, accounting for 43% in 4Q25 compared to 29% in 4Q24 [1]. Industry Outlook - The report notes that while sales in the new home and secondary home markets are improving, a full recovery remains challenging due to ongoing demand issues and high unsold inventory [7]. - For FY2026, new home sales are expected to decline by 6% year-over-year, while secondary home sales are projected to fall by 11% [7].

Core Viewpoint - KE Holdings Inc. (Beike) is a leading platform for housing transactions in China, facing competition in the real estate sector [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2026, BEKE reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.03, missing the estimated $0.08 [2][6] - The actual revenue for the same period was approximately $3.17 billion, slightly below the anticipated $3.22 billion [2][6] - A final cash dividend of $0.09 per ordinary share, or $0.27 per American Depositary Share (ADS), was announced, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder value [2] Dividend and Financial Metrics - The total dividend payout will amount to approximately $300 million, funded from the company's cash surplus, indicating a strong financial position [3] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 36.66, and the price-to-sales ratio stands at about 1.27 [3] Gross Transaction Value (GTV) - BEKE's gross transaction value (GTV) for 2025 was approximately $455.2 billion, representing a 5% decline compared to the previous year [4] - The GTV for existing home transactions was around $307.7 billion, marking a 4.2% decrease year-over-year [4] - The GTV for new home transactions stood at $127.4 billion, reflecting an 8.2% decline from the previous year [4] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2025, BEKE's GTV was approximately $103.6 billion, a significant 36.7% drop compared to the same period in the previous year [5] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.31, suggesting a moderate level of debt relative to its equity [5] - The current ratio is approximately 1.61, indicating BEKE's ability to cover its short-term liabilities with its short-term assets [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In FY2025, the company initiated a strategic pivot from sales-driven to efficiency-driven growth, resulting in stable revenue despite market fluctuations, outperforming broader industry trends [5][6] - Full-year revenue from non-housing transaction business reached a record high of 41% of total revenue [6] - Q4 GTV was RMB 724.1 billion, down 36.7% year-on-year, while revenue was RMB 22.2 billion, a decrease of 28.7% year-on-year [9] - Q4 GAAP net profit was RMB 823 million, down 85.7% year-on-year, and non-GAAP net profit was RMB 517 million, representing a decline of 61.5% year-on-year [10][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Existing home business GTV reached RMB 482 billion in Q4, reflecting a 35.3% decrease year-on-year, while revenue was RMB 5.4 billion, down 39% year-on-year [11] - New home business GTV was RMB 207 billion in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 45.7%, with revenue at RMB 7.3 billion, down 44.5% year-on-year [12][13] - Home renovation and furniture services revenue reached RMB 3.6 billion in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 12% [14] - Home rental services revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to RMB 5.4 billion, driven by a 62% year-on-year increase in rental units under management [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The existing home transaction market in China saw a historical high in 2025, with the number of transactions increasing by over 10% year-on-year [32] - The new home market is experiencing greater differentiation, with higher quality projects attracting stronger demand [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational governance and strategic transformation to enhance service capabilities and operational efficiency [30] - The growth model is shifting from scale-driven to efficiency-driven, emphasizing customer value and decision support services [30][31] - AI technology is being embedded across operations to improve efficiency and enhance service delivery [35][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the overall demand for better living remains stable, with consumers seeking professional and reliable services [29] - The company aims to validate its decision support service model in 2026, focusing on improving conversion rates and unit economics [44] Other Important Information - Total shareholder return for 2025 was approximately RMB 1.22 billion, significantly exceeding non-GAAP net income, representing around 170% of non-GAAP net income for the year [25][43] - The company repurchased approximately RMB 921 million in shares for the full year of 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [24][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's view on the new home business amidst market pressures? - Management acknowledged the structural changes in the new home market and emphasized the need for integrated solutions to improve project efficiency and address developer pain points [54][56][58] Question: How is AI impacting the real estate sector and the company's operations? - Management highlighted that AI is reshaping workflows, improving efficiency in standardized tasks, and allowing service professionals to focus on complex decision-making and client service [60][66][68] Question: How does the company view the influence of new media and KOLs in property transactions? - Management noted that the rise of influencers reflects a shift towards understanding customer needs and providing value beyond just property listings [72][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company initiated a strategic pivot from sales-driven to efficiency-driven growth, resulting in stable revenue despite market fluctuations, with non-housing transaction business accounting for a record high of 41% of total revenue [5][6] - Q4 GTV reached RMB 724.1 billion, a decrease of 36.7% year-on-year, while revenue was RMB 22.2 billion, down 28.7% year-on-year [8][9] - Q4 GAAP net profit was RMB 823 million, down 85.7% year-on-year, and non-GAAP net profit was RMB 517 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 61.5% [9][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Existing home business GTV reached RMB 482 billion in Q4, reflecting a 35.3% decrease year-on-year, while revenue was RMB 5.4 billion, down 39% year-on-year [10][11] - New home business GTV reached RMB 207 billion in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 45.7%, with revenue at RMB 7.3 billion, down 44.5% year-on-year [12] - Home rental services revenue reached RMB 5.4 billion in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, driven by a 62% increase in rental units under management [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The existing home transaction market in China saw a historical high in 2025, with the number of transactions increasing by over 10% year-on-year [30] - The new home market is experiencing greater differentiation, with higher quality projects attracting stronger demand [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving operational governance and leveraging data and AI to enhance service capabilities and customer value [27][28] - The growth model is shifting from scale-driven to efficiency-driven, emphasizing decision support services and resource optimization [28][34] - The company aims to build diversified service capabilities across the residential ecosystem to meet a full range of housing needs [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the overall demand for better living remains stable, with consumers seeking safe, professional, and reliable services [26] - The company plans to validate its decision support service model in 2026, focusing on improving conversion rates and unit economics [41][42] Other Important Information - Total shareholder return for 2025 was approximately $1.22 billion, significantly exceeding non-GAAP net income, representing around 170% of non-GAAP net income for the year [22][41] - The company has repurchased approximately $921 million in shares for the full year of 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strategic upgrade from scale-driven expansion to efficiency-driven growth - Management emphasized that this transition is about upgrading value creation and improving community-based residential services, rather than simply cutting capacity [45][46] Question: New home business dynamics and relationship with developers - Management discussed the need to upgrade the new home business from a channel player to an integrated capability platform, focusing on enhancing online decision-making support and optimizing resource allocation [52][54] Question: Impact of AI on the real estate sector - Management highlighted that AI will reshape the division of labor and value creation in the industry, improving efficiency in standardized tasks while emphasizing the importance of human judgment and service [58][63]

1 KE Holdings Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Unaudited Financial Results and a Final Cash Dividend BEIJING, China, March 16, 2026 - KE Holdings Inc. ("Beike" or the "Company") (NYSE: BEKE; HKEX: 2423), a leading integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services, today announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, and also announced a final cash dividend. Business and Financial Highlights for the Fourth ...

EF001 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券的相關信息 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券 不適用 其他信息 其他信息 不適用 發行人董事 於本公告日期，本公司董事會由執行董事彭永東先生、單一剛先生、徐萬剛先生及徐濤先生，非執行董事李朝暉先生以及獨立非執 行董事陳小紅女士、朱寒松先生及武軍先生組成。 第 2 頁 共 2 頁 v 1.1.1 第 1 頁 共 2 頁 v 1.1.1 EF001 免責聲明 | 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因 | | | --- | --- | | 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 | | | 股票發行人現金股息公告 | | | 發行人名稱 | 貝殼控股有限公司 | | 股份代號 | 02423 | | 多櫃檯股份代號及貨幣 | 不適用 | | 相關股份代號及名稱 | 不適用 | | 公告標題 | 末期現金股息 | | 公告日期 | 2026年3月16日 | | 公告狀態 | 新公告 | | 股息信息 | | | 股息類型 | 末期 | | 股息性 ...