中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，贝壳-W(02423)作为业内龙头企业，在全国布局战略深化和平台优势 的加持下，将充分受益于行业规模的持续扩张。该行预计公司2025-2027年扣非归母净利润分别为53.8 亿、65.4亿和72.9亿元，当前股价对应PE分别为26.1倍、21.5倍、19.3倍，维持"买入"评级。贝壳发布 2025年三季度业绩公告，2025年前三季度公司实现营业收入723.9亿元，同比+16.1%;实现扣非归母净利 润29.1亿元，同比-16.8%。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 收入保持增长，门店及经纪人数量持续攀升 2025年前三季度公司实现营业收入723.9亿元，同比+16.1%，当前房地产市场承压，但公司收入规模仍 保持增长，展现了贝壳的市场竞争力;扣非归母净利润29.1亿元，同比-16.8%，主要系毛利率从上年同期 的25.3%降至21.4%，盈利能力有所下滑。截至三季度末，贝壳门店数同比增长27.3%，达到61393家;经 纪人数达到54.6万人，同比增长14.5%，整体规模保持扩张态势。 交易规模保持平稳，新兴业态发展良好 1)存量房业务：交易额(GTV)同比+5.8%，达到5056 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) is expected to benefit from the continuous expansion of the industry scale, supported by its strategic nationwide layout and platform advantages, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 5.38 billion, 6.54 billion, and 7.29 billion CNY respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Revenue Growth and Market Position - In the first three quarters of 2025, Beike achieved operating revenue of 72.39 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, demonstrating its market competitiveness despite pressure in the real estate market [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.91 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin from 25.3% to 21.4% [2] - As of the end of Q3, the number of Beike stores increased by 27.3% year-on-year to 61,393, and the number of agents reached 546,000, up 14.5% year-on-year, indicating overall scale expansion [2] Transaction Volume and Business Performance - The existing housing business saw a transaction volume (GTV) increase of 5.8% year-on-year to 505.6 billion CNY, with net income of 6 billion CNY, down 3.6% from the previous year [3] - The new housing business experienced a GTV decline of 13.7% to 196.3 billion CNY, with net income of 6.6 billion CNY, down 14.1% year-on-year due to a slowdown in the commodity housing market [3] - The home decoration business generated net income of 4.3 billion CNY, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, while rental services saw net income of 5.7 billion CNY, up 45.3% year-on-year, attributed to an increase in housing resources under the "worry-free rental" model [3] - Emerging businesses and others reported net income of 400 million CNY, down from 500 million CNY in the previous year [3] Shareholder Returns and Buyback Strategy - In Q3 2025, Beike's buyback amount reached 281 million USD, the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [4] - By the end of Q3 2025, the total buyback amount for the year reached 675 million USD, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Since initiating the buyback in September 2022, the company has repurchased approximately 2.3 billion USD worth of shares, representing 11.5% of the total shares before the buyback, reflecting confidence in future development and enhancing shareholder returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple companies conducted share buybacks on November 14, 2025, with China Feihe (06186) leading in both the number of shares repurchased and the total amount spent [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - China Feihe (06186) repurchased 10.70 million shares for a total of 46.13 million yuan, representing 1.412% of its total share capital [2]. - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) repurchased 3.00 million shares for 42.58 million yuan, accounting for 0.979% of its total share capital [2]. - Sinopec Limited (00386) repurchased 6.74 million shares for 29.82 million yuan, which is 0.120% of its total share capital [2]. - AAC Technologies (02018) repurchased 300,000 shares for 11.97 million yuan, representing 0.212% of its total share capital [2]. - Yimeng Sunshine (N23020) repurchased 604,000 shares for 9.97 million yuan, accounting for 1.732% of its total share capital [2]. Group 2: Other Notable Buybacks - Kweichow Moutai (09987) repurchased 17,400 shares for 6.27 million yuan, which is 3.190% of its total share capital [2]. - Antong Oilfield Services (03337) repurchased 6.01 million shares for 5.99 million yuan, representing 1.660% of its total share capital [2]. - MGM China (02282) repurchased 338,700 shares for 5.45 million yuan, accounting for 0.763% of its total share capital [2]. - China Feihe (06186) has a cumulative buyback of 12.8 million shares for the year, which is 1.412% of its total share capital [2].

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423.HK) announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 530,800 shares at a cost of $3 million on November 14, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company plans to execute the buyback to enhance shareholder value [1] - The total number of shares to be repurchased is 530,800 [1] - The total expenditure for the buyback is set at $3 million [1]

Core Points - The company Beike-W (02423) announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 530,800 shares at a total cost of $3 million [1] - The buyback price is set between $5.58 and $5.72 per share [1] Summary by Category Company Actions - Beike-W plans to execute a share buyback on November 14, 2025, with a total expenditure of $3 million [1] - The number of shares targeted for repurchase is 530,800 [1] - The specified price range for the buyback is between $5.58 and $5.72 per share [1]

Group 1 - The company Beike-W (02423) announced a share repurchase plan, committing to buy back 530,800 shares at a total cost of $3 million [1] - The repurchase price is set between $5.58 and $5.72 per share [1]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年11月17日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities stabilizing sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the rise of favorable policies for housing and the potential for commercial real estate assets to be revalued during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 201 million square meters last week, up 11.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 12.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 3.2% [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in November are down 39%, with first and second-tier cities down 37.8% and third and fourth-tier cities down 49.2% [5][7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 89.538 million square meters, with a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week [22][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council supports the issuance of REITs for private investment projects and the central bank aims to improve the foundational financial system for real estate [31][32]. - Local policies include the promotion of purchasing existing homes for affordable housing in Hangzhou and the launch of online applications for housing provident fund loans in Zhengzhou [31][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales data for October 2025. China Jinmao achieved sales of 12 billion yuan, up 3%, while other companies like New Town Holdings and CIFI Holdings saw significant declines [38][39]. - China Resources Land announced a placement of 49.5 million shares, raising approximately 2.06 billion HKD, maintaining a 70.1% stake post-placement [38][39]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 1.08%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [43][47]. - Notable stock performances included China Wuyi and Huaxia Happiness, which saw significant gains, while companies like Asia Pacific Real Estate and Shenzhen Real Estate A experienced declines [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious optimism despite current challenges [2][3]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with significant declines in new construction and completion rates. For the period from January to October 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with new construction down by 19.8% and completions down by 16.9% [1][20]. - The sales side shows a broader decline in sales volume and price. From January to October 2025, the sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a more pronounced drop of 18.8% in October alone. The sales amount also fell by 9.6% year-on-year, with a 24.3% decline in October [2][33]. - Funding sources for real estate development are tightening, with total funding down by 9.7% year-on-year. In October, funding sources saw a significant drop of 21.9% compared to the previous month [35]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, with core cities expected to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the potential shift of real estate companies towards manufacturing and the favorable conditions for quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. - Adjustments to the 2025 forecasts include a projected investment decline of 14.2% (previously 11.0%), new construction down by 18.0% (previously 15.1%), and completions down by 17.7% (previously 20.0%) [20][34].

机构：第一上海 研究员：胡钰 2025Q3 经调整净利润12.9 亿元，同比下降27.8%：2025Q3 公司总交易额为7367 亿元，同比基本持平。 期内录得净收入231 亿元，同比增加2.1%。期内毛利率为21.4%，同比下降1.3 个百分点，主要由于贡献 利润率较高的存量房及新房业务收入占比下降以及存量房的贡献利润率下降的影响。期内整体运营费用 为43 亿元，同比减少1.8%，环比减少6.5%，公司降本增效成果逐步显现。期内公司经调整净利润12.9 亿元，同比下降27.8%。 一赛道业务韧性十足，成本费用节降稳步推进：2025Q3 公司存量房交易额为5056 亿元，同比增长 5.8%，实现净收入60 亿元，同比下降3.6%，收入增速低于交易额增速主要因为非链家的交易额占比提 升。贡献利润率为39.0%，同比下降2 个百分点，主要由于存量房收入减少带来的杠杆效应以及固定人 工成本同比增加所致；环比下降约1 个百分点，主要因为固定的人工成本环比降幅低于营收的降幅。期 内公司的固定人工成本环比下降6.5 个百分点，公司成本控制正在逐步兑现。新房交易额为1963 亿元， 同比下降13.7%；净收入66 亿元，同 ...