Financial Performance - Total transaction value for 2024 reached RMB 3,349.4 billion (USD 458.9 billion), an increase of 6.6% year-on-year[4] - Net income for 2024 was RMB 93.5 billion (USD 12.8 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%[5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 72.11 billion (USD 9.88 billion), a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year[5] - Total revenue for 2024 increased by 20.2% to RMB 93.5 billion (USD 12.8 billion) from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023, driven by growth in new housing and home decoration businesses[27] - Operating profit for 2024 was RMB 3.765 billion (USD 516 million), with an operating margin of 4.0%, down from 6.2% in 2023[34] - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 4.078 billion (USD 559 million), compared to RMB 5.890 billion in 2023[37] - The company reported a basic earnings per share of RMB 1.19 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1.67 in 2023, a decrease of 29%[73] Transaction and Revenue Growth - Active stores as of December 31, 2024, totaled 51,573, a growth of 17.7% compared to the previous year[6] - Active agents numbered 499,937 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.9%[6] - The total transaction value for Q4 2024 was RMB 1,143.8 billion (USD 156.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 55.5%[5] - In Q4 2024, the company's net revenue increased by 54.1% year-over-year to RMB 31.1 billion (USD 4.3 billion) from RMB 20.2 billion, driven by growth in total transaction volume and expansion in housing rental services[10] - The net revenue from existing housing business in Q4 2024 was RMB 8.9 billion (USD 1.2 billion), a 47.5% increase from RMB 6.0 billion in Q4 2023[10] - The net revenue from new housing business in Q4 2024 increased by 72.7% to RMB 13.1 billion (USD 1.8 billion) from RMB 7.6 billion in Q4 2023[12] Cost and Expense Management - Operating costs for 2024 increased by 25.8% to RMB 70.5 billion (USD 9.7 billion) from RMB 56.1 billion in 2023[29] - The company's operating costs for external commissions increased by 11.5% to RMB 22.8 billion (USD 3.1 billion) in 2024, compared to RMB 20.4 billion in 2023, driven by new home business net income growth[31] - Internal commission and salary costs rose by 11.1% to RMB 18.9 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in 2024 from RMB 17 billion in 2023, due to increased transactions and improved benefits for agents[31] - Operating expenses grew by 13.3% to RMB 19.2 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in 2024, up from RMB 16.9 billion in 2023[33] Research and Development - The company's research and development expenses in Q4 2024 rose by 38.4% to RMB 739 million (USD 101 million) due to an increase in the number of R&D personnel and technical service costs[17] - Research and development expenses increased by 17.9% to RMB 2.3 billion (USD 300 million) in 2024, primarily due to an increase in R&D personnel and technical service costs[35] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase approximately USD 716 million worth of shares in 2024, representing about 3.9% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023[10] - The company announced a final cash dividend of USD 0.12 per ordinary share, totaling approximately USD 400 million[42] - The dividend payment date is expected to be around April 22, 2025, for common shareholders and April 25, 2025, for American depositary share holders[44] Market Strategy and Outlook - The company aims to enhance customer experience and service efficiency through technology and humanistic values[7] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its service offerings in the coming fiscal year[27] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to drive growth[54] - The management anticipates a positive outlook for the overall economic conditions in China, which may influence future business performance[54] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 61.6 billion (USD 8.4 billion) as of December 31, 2024[25] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from RMB 19.63 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.44 billion in 2024, a decline of about 41.6%[58] - The total current liabilities are expected to rise from RMB 39.52 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.74 billion in 2024, an increase of approximately 33.4%[60] - The total net increase in cash and cash equivalents for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 4,480,990, compared to RMB 3,862,085 for the same period in 2023, reflecting an increase of 16%[80] Non-GAAP Metrics - The company utilizes non-GAAP financial metrics to assess operational performance, including adjusted operating profit and adjusted net profit[48] - Adjusted operating profit excludes stock-based compensation, intangible asset amortization, and impairment of goodwill and other long-term assets[49] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP metrics should not be viewed in isolation and encourages investors to review them alongside GAAP metrics[49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Views - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share in lower-tier cities through its platform, Beilian. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operating environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance growth and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. The home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term but are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and the home decoration and rental sectors can contribute to potential growth, with data assets holding significant value elasticity, making the company a strategic allocation target [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, focusing on digitalizing and smartening the residential service industry. It provides a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service including second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's total transaction volume (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% [18][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has built a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, creating a barrier that competitors find hard to cross. The ACN network breaks traditional competitive dilemmas, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding single-store economies to regional economies. The company's self-operated brand, Lianjia, has successfully captured customer mindshare through its property dictionary, genuine listings, and service commitments, resulting in significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [6][36]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in the second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and leveraging the Beilian platform for continuous expansion. The impact of commission reductions in Beijing is gradually diminishing, and the commission rate for second-hand transactions has shown signs of recovery [7][9]. Business Expansion and Future Growth - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting focus from blind expansion to solidifying internal capabilities and enhancing management efficiency. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income, and is expected to maintain good growth momentum. The company is exploring new profit points through its data assets and partnerships with developers [8][9][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business saw significant growth, reaching 10.9 billion yuan, while rental income reached 9.8 billion yuan, accounting for 16%. The overall gross margin improved to 27.9%, and the company successfully turned a profit with a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 [30][32]. Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through substantial dividends and buybacks, ensuring a solid bottom-line return for shareholders. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4 times. Given its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity, the company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium in the short term [9][10].

联合研究丨港股公司深度丨贝壳-W（2423.HK） [Table_Title] 房屋经纪王者归来，三翼齐飞开拓未来 ——贝壳-W 深度覆盖报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 经纪主业护城河竞对难以逾越，直营品牌链家先发占据核心战场，通过贝联把握下沉市场实现 市占扩张。二手市场边际向好而低线城市新房市场低迷为公司经营舒适区间，二手业务提量新 房业务提价，公司业绩持续增厚，经营杠杆也会放大盈利弹性。家装与租赁业务短期增收不增 利，但中期有望为公司贡献较大业绩增量。鉴于竞争优势、相对稀缺、潜在业绩弹性以及入通 后的增量资金等因素，公司短期应当享有一定估值溢价。中长期角度，经纪业务份额仍有提升 空间，家装、租赁可贡献潜在增长，数据资产具备较大价值弹性，公司属于战略配置品种。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 范超 蔡方羿 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516060001 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BUV463 袁佳楠 ...

上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 03 月 08 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——存量市场王者，居住成长新星 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 64.50 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8914.03 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 73.50/32.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,336.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,477.71 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0839 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 贝壳简介：创业垂统、 ...

事件 2025 年 2 月 28 日，公司披露其 MSCI ESG 评级由"BBB"上调至 "A"级，连续两年获得评级提升。 点评分析 ESG 为 A 的公司 ROE 更高，波动更小，吸引更多投资者。根据每日 经济新闻，实证研究 ESG 评级为 A 的上市公司其 ROE 算术平均值 明显高于其他公司。同时 ESG 评级为 A 的上市公司年化波动率最 低，其 60 个月年化波动率为 45.62%。我们认为 ESG 表现优越的公 司品牌强、治理好、声誉佳、风险低，具备长期竞争力，能够吸引 更多长线投资者及 ESG 投资者。 楼市春意渐浓，行业β修复中，贝壳率先受益。从前端看，根据贝 壳找房，春节后核心一二线城市的带看人数持续上升，在自然情况 下趋近甚至明显超越去年 9 月末新政后的水平。从备案看，最新 一周（2.22-2.28）47 城商品房销售 419 万方，环比+28.7%，同比 +28.6%；22 城二手房成交 282 万方，环比+14.2%，同比+64.4%。 今年小阳春正逐步兑现，随着行业β逐步修复，贝壳作为行业龙头 则率先受益。 贝壳入通在即，估值有望修复。3 月 10 日港股通名单进行调整， 在考察 ...

贝壳-W 02423.HK 公司研究 | 首次报告 | | | 平台溢价，不惧牛熊 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 首次覆盖给予买入评级，目标价 64.86 港元。贝壳作为国内房产经纪龙头，有望受益于 2025 年 "止跌回稳"的政策目标下市场成交量和房价的修复；"三翼"业务模式正快速 发展、逐步成熟。我们预测公司 2024-2026 年调整后 EPS 为 2.41/2.60/3.12 元，参考 25 年可比公司调整后平均 23 倍 PE，对应目标价 64.86 港元（1 港元=0.922 人民币）。 风险提示 房地产销售不及预期。佣金率不及预期。家装家居、租赁业务发展不及预期。假设条件 变化影响测算结果。 股价（2025年02月21日） 54.25 港元 目标价格 64.86 港元 52 周最高价/最低价 73.5/31.61 港元 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） 359,085/344,681 H 股市值（百万港币） 194,804 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产 报告发布日期 2025 年 02 月 23 日 买入（首次） | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | ...

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | 赵旭翔 | zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | | | 平台溢价，不惧牛熊 贝壳-W 02423.HK 公司研究 | 首次报告 首次覆盖给予买入评级，目标价 64.86 港元。贝壳作为国内房产经纪龙头，有望受益于 2025 年 "止跌回稳"的政策目标下市场成交量和房价的修复；"三翼"业务模式正快速 发展、逐步成熟。我们预测公司 2024-2026 年调整后 EPS 为 2.41/2.60/3.12 元，参考 25 年可比公司调整后平均 23 倍 PE，对应目标价 64.86 港元（1 港元=0.922 人民币）。 股价（2025年02月21日） 54.25 港元 目标价格 64.86 港元 52 周最高价/最低价 73.5/31.61 港元 总股本/ ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (2423.HK) [5] Core Views - Beike is a leading real estate transaction and service platform in China, having transitioned from a traditional real estate agency to a digital service platform [10][12] - The company has achieved profitability in 2023, with revenue growth from 46 billion RMB in 2019 to 77.8 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 14% [22][24] - Beike's platform has significant advantages, with over 48,000 stores and 476,000 agents, primarily serving high-tier cities [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Beike originated from the establishment of Lianjia in 2001 and officially launched Beike Zhaofang in 2018, becoming the first stock of residential services in China listed on the NYSE in 2020 and later on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022 [10] - The company has implemented a "one body, three wings" strategy to enhance its service offerings [10][12] Financial Analysis - Revenue has stabilized and increased, with a net profit of 5.9 billion RMB in 2023 and a Non-GAAP net profit of 9.8 billion RMB [22] - The company expects adjusted net profits of 8.7 billion RMB in 2024, 9.8 billion RMB in 2025, and 11.7 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [4][3] Business Segments - The existing home business contributes significantly to revenue, with a gross profit margin of around 40%, while the new home business contributes about 25% [2] - The home decoration and rental services are rapidly growing, with the rental service contributing 15.6% of revenue as of Q3 2024 [24][30] Market Position - Beike holds a leading market share in the fragmented real estate brokerage industry, with a 9.7% market share based on transaction volume [54] - The platform's monthly active users reached 46.2 million, with a strong focus on high-tier city clients [3][55] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its home decoration business and leveraging its platform to enhance service offerings, aiming for nationwide scalability [2][3] - Beike's cash position is robust, with a total of 81 billion RMB in cash and equivalents as of September 2024, allowing for effective shareholder returns through buybacks [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous growth driven by its dual business segments, with significant contributions from home decoration and rental services [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached 73.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [2]. - The company’s total transaction volume increased by 26.8%, indicating strong market performance [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 62 billion RMB, stable compared to the previous year, with a net income of 77 billion RMB, up 30.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 22.7%, a decrease attributed to rising fixed salary costs and a decline in the profit margin from existing home sales [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the year is projected to be 80 billion RMB, 96 billion RMB, and 109 billion RMB for the next three years, respectively [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The existing home business saw a decline in profit margin, while the new home business outperformed expectations, with transaction volume reaching 4,778 billion RMB, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [2]. - The new home business generated a transaction fee rate of 3.4%, achieving a historical high, with commission income from state-owned developers rising to 58% [2]. - Revenue from home decoration and rental services grew by 62.0% year-on-year, contributing to 35.8% of total revenue, marking a historical high [2]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from recent policy adjustments in real estate credit and transaction taxes, which are likely to lead to significant growth in overall transaction volume [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 66.9 HKD / 25.6 USD, based on a projected PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [2].

投资要点 23/1123/1224/0224/0324/0424/0524/0624/0724/0824/0924/1024/11 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 房地产服务 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 贝壳控股 (02423) | 报告日期： 2024 年 11 月 28 日 | | 新房成交逆势增长，第二曲线延续高增 ——2024 年三季度业绩点评报告 | | 事件：2024 年 11 月 21 日公司公布 2024 年三季度业绩。 ❑ Q3 新房 GTV 逆势同比高增，"第二曲线"延续增长势头 2024Q1-3 公司净收入为 623 亿元，同比+8.3%，经调整净利润为 58.7 亿元，同 比-27.4%；毛利润为 158 亿元，同比-4.8%；毛利率为 25.3%，同比-3.5pct。单 季度来看，2024Q3 公司总交易额为 7368 亿元，同比+12.5%；净收 ...