上 市 公 司 房地产 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 05 月 16 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 110,740 | 122,649 | 135,786 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,201 | 7,544 | 9,121 | | 同比增长率（%） | -524 | -31 | 53 | 22 | 21 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.63 | 1.15 | 1.77 | 2.15 | 2.60 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 8.16 | 5.70 | 8.68 | 10.70 | 13.17 | | 市盈率 | ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：营收稳健增长，经调 整利润略超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 109,626 | 127,495 | 147,384 | | 同比（%） | 28.20 | 20.16 | 17.30 | 16.30 | 15.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,589 | 8,497 | 10,493 | | 同比（%） | 524.45 | (30.91) | 62.10 | 28.96 | 23.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 9,798 | 7,211 | 9,701 | 11,615 | 13,617 | | 同比（%） | 244.70 | (26.41) | 34.53 | 19.73 | 17.2 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：营收稳健增长，经调 整利润略超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 109,626 | 127,495 | 147,384 | | 同比（%） | 28.20 | 20.16 | 17.30 | 16.30 | 15.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,589 | 8,497 | 10,493 | | 同比（%） | 524.45 | (30.91) | 62.10 | 28.96 | 23.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 9,798 | 7,211 | 9,701 | 11,615 | 13,617 | | 同比（%） | 244.70 | (26.41) | 34.53 | 19.73 | 17.2 ...

2025年第一季度的移动月活跃用户数量平均为4450万名，而2024年同期为4770万名。 贝壳董事会主席兼首席执行官彭永东先生表示，"在稳定的市场表现和我们的增长策略持续显效的基础 上，第一季度我们的业务延续了高速增长，我们的总交易额同比增长34.0%，净收入同比增长42.4%。 房产交易服务继续展现大幅的超市场表现。平台持续赋能更多产业伙伴，活跃门店和活跃经纪人数量同 比分别显著增长29.6%和23.0%，人效、店效表现也在改善。家装家居业务收入稳健增长，贡献利润率 创新高，客户体验改善和效率提升初见成效。到第一季度末房屋租赁服务在管房源量超过50万套，经营 能力持续改善。我们也在AI应用上持续推进，在C端和B端都落地了多项智能工具，带来更好的客户体 验和为服务者提效助力。" "展望未来，我们对"一体三翼"战略下的公司长期发展充满信心，并将坚定地在AI应用上持续投入。同 时，今年我们会在其他类型投入上更加审慎，关注投入产出比，筑牢安全经营底线，保障支持本公司长 期愿景的股东获得本公司可持续发展的回报。"彭先生总结道。 贝壳执行董事兼首席财务官徐涛先生进一步表示，"一季度的市场表现非常稳健，延续了去年9月份 ...

Financial Performance - Total transaction value for Q1 2025 reached RMB 843.7 billion (USD 116.3 billion), a year-on-year increase of 34.0%[6] - Net revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 23.3 billion (USD 3.2 billion), representing a year-on-year growth of 42.4%[6] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 855 million (USD 118 million), a significant increase of 97.9% year-on-year[8] - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 591 million (USD 81 million), compared to RMB 12 million in Q1 2024, reflecting improved operating leverage[18] - The gross profit increased by 17.0% from RMB 4.1 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 4.8 billion (USD 700 million) in Q1 2025, with a gross margin decrease to 20.7% from 25.2%[16] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 855 million (USD 118 million), compared to RMB 432 million in Q1 2024[21] - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net revenue reached RMB 23.33 billion, representing a 42.5% increase compared to RMB 16.38 billion for the same period in 2024[46] - The net profit for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 855.32 million, compared to RMB 432.12 million for the same period in 2024, indicating a growth of 97.7%[46] Business Growth - The number of active stores as of March 31, 2025, was 55,210, an increase of 29.6% year-on-year[8] - The number of active agents reached 490,862, up 23.0% compared to the same period last year[8] - The net income from the rental service business reached a record high of RMB 5.1 billion, growing 93.8% year-on-year[10] - The net income from existing home business increased by 20.0% from RMB 5.7 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 6.9 billion (USD 900 million) in Q1 2025[12] - The total transaction value of existing home business rose by 28.1% from RMB 453.2 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 580.3 billion (USD 80 billion) in Q1 2025[12] - The net income from new home business surged by 64.2% from RMB 4.9 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 8.1 billion (USD 1.1 billion) in Q1 2025[12] - The net income from home decoration and furnishing increased by 22.3% from RMB 2.4 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 2.9 billion (USD 400 million) in Q1 2025[12] Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses for Q1 2025 were RMB 4.2 billion, a decrease of 31.3% compared to the previous quarter[10] - Operating costs rose by 51.0% from RMB 12.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 18.5 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in Q1 2025[13] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 1.393 billion (USD 192 million), remaining roughly flat year-on-year[8] - The adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 1.148 billion (USD 158 million), up from RMB 960 million in Q1 2024[20] Shareholder Information - The company repurchased approximately USD 139 million worth of shares, accounting for about 0.6% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024[11] - The company has a share repurchase plan allowing for the purchase of up to USD 3 billion of Class A ordinary shares and/or American Depositary Shares by August 31, 2025, with approximately 116.6 million American Depositary Shares repurchased for a total consideration of approximately USD 1.7648 billion as of March 31, 2025[27] - For Q1 2025, the basic and diluted earnings per American Depositary Share attributable to shareholders of Beike Holdings were RMB 0.76 (USD 0.10) and RMB 0.73 (USD 0.10), compared to RMB 0.38 and RMB 0.37 in the same period of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 100%[25] Cash and Investments - As of March 31, 2025, the company's cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 54.8 billion (USD 7.6 billion)[26] - Cash and cash equivalents increased from RMB 11.44 billion as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 12.77 billion as of March 31, 2025[40] - The company’s long-term investments increased from RMB 23.79 billion as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 27.62 billion as of March 31, 2025[40] Non-GAAP Metrics - The company uses non-GAAP financial metrics, including adjusted operating profit, adjusted net income, and adjusted EBITDA, to assess its performance and operational planning[32] - The adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of Beike Holdings excludes certain expenses, providing a clearer view of the company's operational performance[9] - The company believes that non-GAAP financial metrics help identify potential business trends that may be distorted by certain expenses included in net income[32] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP financial metrics should not be considered in isolation and encourages investors to review these metrics alongside GAAP indicators[33] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI applications and maintain a cautious approach to other types of investments[10] - The company will hold an earnings conference call on May 15, 2025, to discuss financial performance[29] - Forward-looking statements in the announcement are identified by terms such as "will," "expect," "estimate," and involve inherent risks and uncertainties[36] - The announcement includes a disclaimer regarding the potential differences between actual performance and forward-looking statements due to various factors, including competition and economic conditions[36] Operational Insights - The company operates a leading online and offline integrated real estate transaction and service platform, with over 23 years of operational experience since the establishment of its brand, Lianjia[35] - The company aims to reshape service operation models to provide more efficient real estate transaction and living services, including second-hand and new home transactions, rentals, and home decoration[35] - The company relies on the integrity of its brokerage brands, stores, and agents on its platform, which is crucial for its operational success[36] - The company has established a comprehensive infrastructure and standards that support its rapid and sustainable development[35] Comprehensive Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, total assets amounted to RMB 133.15 billion, while total liabilities were RMB 61.70 billion, resulting in total equity of RMB 71.45 billion[40][42][43] - The total current liabilities remained stable at RMB 52.74 billion as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 52.76 billion as of March 31, 2025[42] - The company’s capital reserve decreased from RMB 72.46 billion as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 68.62 billion as of March 31, 2025[43]

KE Holdings Inc. （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） 股份代號 : 2423 年度報告 2024 目錄 | 五年財務概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 主要業績 | 3 | | 前瞻性陳述 | 4 | | 業務概覽 | 5 | | 管理層討論及分析 | 29 | | 董事及高級管理層 | 48 | | 董事會報告 | 57 | | 企業管治報告 | 104 | | 獨立核數師報告 | 128 | | 合併資產負債表 | 136 | | 合併綜合收益表 | 139 | | 合併股東權益變動表 | 142 | | 合併現金流量表 | 144 | | 合併財務報表附註 | 147 | | 公司資料 | 267 | | 釋義 | 269 | 3 貝殼控股有限公司 • 截至2024年12月31日止年度，總交易額1 為人民幣33,494億元，較2023年的人民幣31,429億元增加 6.6%。截至2024年12月31日止年度，存量房交易的總交易額為人民幣22,465億元，較2023年的人民 幣20,280億元增加10.8%。截至2024年12月31日止年度，新房交易的總交易 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][22][23] Core Insights - The company is experiencing orderly business expansion, with a significant increase in non-property transaction services, which accounted for 34% of total net income in 2024, up 9.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][8][14] - The total transaction volume for 2024 reached 33,494 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while net income was 935 million, reflecting a 20.2% increase [6][7][12] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 103.50 billion, with a net profit of 56.97 billion, leading to a valuation range of 62.87-71.44 RMB, equivalent to 68.33-77.65 HKD per share [22][23] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 93,457 million, a 20.2% increase from 2023, while net profit was 4,065 million, down 30.9% year-on-year [5][12][27] - The gross profit margin decreased from 28% in 2023 to 25% in 2024, primarily due to a decline in the contribution margin from the existing housing business [11][27] - The company has implemented a share repurchase plan, spending approximately 7.16 billion USD in 2024, which represents about 3.89% of the total shares issued at the end of 2023 [6][8] Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business generated net income of 28.2 billion in 2024, remaining stable compared to 2023, while the total transaction volume increased by 10.8% to 22,465 billion [6][14] - The new housing business saw net income rise to 33.7 billion, a 10.1% increase, despite a 3.3% decline in total transaction volume [17][21] - The home decoration and furniture business achieved net income of 14.8 billion, a 36.1% increase, driven by synergies with property transactions [18][21] User and Store Metrics - By the end of 2024, the company had 51,573 stores, a 17.7% increase year-on-year, with active agents numbering 499,937, up 16.9% [13][21] - The average monthly active user count remained stable at 43.2 million, indicating consistent user engagement [13][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth of 20.2% year-on-year for 2024, achieving total revenue of 93.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.4% to 7.21 billion yuan [7] - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for 2024 reached 3.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with revenue contributions from various business segments including existing homes, new homes, home decoration, rental housing, and emerging businesses [7] - The company is expected to benefit from structural adjustments in the market, particularly in the second-hand housing market, which is anticipated to recover first in 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 77.78 billion yuan, projected to grow to 93.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 7.21 billion yuan, down from 9.80 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 26.41% [1] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to be 1.12 yuan in 2024, with projections of 1.82 yuan, 2.35 yuan, and 2.90 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Business Segments - Revenue from existing homes reached 282 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while new homes generated 337 billion yuan, up 10.1% [7] - Home decoration business saw a significant growth of 36.1%, contributing 148 billion yuan, and rental housing business surged by 135% to 143 billion yuan [7] - The company expanded its active store count to 49,700, an increase of 18.3%, and the number of active agents reached 445,000, up 12.1% [7] Market Position - The company increased its market share in the new home sector by 1.7 percentage points to 11.4%, despite a 3.3% decline in GTV for new homes [7] - The commission rate for new homes improved by 0.4 percentage points to 3.47% [7] - The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to continue their rapid growth, with the number of managed rental units increasing from 210,000 to 430,000 [7] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic brokerage industry, with potential for performance improvement driven by increased turnover rates in the second-hand housing market and enhanced penetration in new home brokerage [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 9.70 billion yuan and 11.62 billion yuan respectively, with a 2027 forecast of 13.62 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 93.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%. However, the adjusted net profit decreased by 26.4% to 7.21 billion yuan [7][8] - The company's gross transaction value (GTV) reached 3.35 trillion yuan, showing a positive growth of 6.6% year-on-year, which supported stable revenue growth [7] - The report highlights a decline in gross margin by 3.3 percentage points to 24.6%, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share from the higher-margin existing home business [7] - The company expanded its market share in the new home sector, with a GTV decline of 3.3% but an increase in market share by 1.7 percentage points to 11.4% [7] - The home decoration and rental businesses experienced significant growth, with the home decoration GTV increasing by 27.3% to 16.9 billion yuan and the rental business expanding its managed properties from 210,000 to 430,000 units [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue forecast for 2024 is 93.46 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 109.63 billion yuan in 2025 and 127.49 billion yuan in 2026 [1][8] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 6.59 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.50 billion yuan in 2026, with a forecasted EPS of 1.82 yuan and 2.35 yuan respectively [1][8] - The report projects a decrease in the adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 due to market fluctuations, with revised estimates of 9.70 billion yuan and 11.62 billion yuan respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's market share is expected to continue increasing, with significant expansion in new business segments. Despite uncertainties in the real estate transaction market, the company's platform advantages and store expansion are driving market share growth. The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to drive secondary growth. The current stock price of HKD 60.0 corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.7/23.5/21.5 for 2025-2027, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue was HKD 31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of HKD 28.8 billion. This was driven by better-than-expected property transaction volumes and new home fee rates. However, the non-GAAP net profit was HKD 1.34 billion, below expectations of HKD 1.77 billion due to lower gross margins and higher-than-expected expenses [7]. - The company's GTV for existing homes in Q4 2024 grew by 59.1% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 47.5%. The GTV for new homes increased by 49.3%, with revenue rising by 72.7%. The new business segments, including home decoration and rental services, saw revenue growth of 12.8% and 109%, respectively [7][8]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to HKD 7.33 billion and HKD 8.33 billion, down from previous estimates of HKD 8.98 billion and HKD 10.37 billion. A new forecast for 2027 projects a net profit of HKD 9.14 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.5%/+13.6%/+9.7% for 2025/2026/2027, respectively. The diluted EPS is projected at HKD 2.1/2.4/2.6 for the same years [6][10].