[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|房地产Ⅱ 证券研究报告 | 地 | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 | 产 & | 海 | 外 | 】 | 贝 | 壳 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -W(02423.HK)/贝壳(BEKE) | | | | | | | | | 系列二 | —洞见贝壳 | | | | | | | 如何看待 26 年市场环境下贝壳的业绩弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测（货币单位如无特别说明均为人民币）： | [Table_Finance] | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 77,777 | 93,457 | 94,308 | 95,240 | 104,660 | | 增长率 （ ） | % | 28% | 20% | 1% | 1% | 10% | | EBITDA（百万元） | | 8,023 | 6,622 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Group 1 - The company Beike-W (02423) announced a share repurchase plan, intending to buy back approximately 493,700 shares at a cost of about 3 million USD [1] - The repurchase price is set between 6.04 and 6.13 USD per share [1]

智通财经APP讯，贝壳-W(02423)发布公告，于2026年1月22日该公司斥资约300万美元回购49.37万股， 回购价格为每股6.04-6.13美元。 ...

翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) FF305 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年1月23日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 1). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 938,955 | % | USD | 5.3251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 變動日期 | 2026年1月2日 | | | | | | 2). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 616,191 | % | USD | 5.68 | | | 變動日期 | 2026年1月5日 | | | | | | 3). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 602,154 | % | USD | 5.81 ...

国家知识产权局信息显示，贝壳找房（北京）科技有限公司申请一项名为"工单派发方法、电子设备及 计算机程序产品"的专利，公开号CN121390687A，申请日期为2025年10月。 专利摘要显示，本公开提供了一种工单派发方法、电子设备及计算机程序产品。本公开的工单派发方法 包括：获取工单，并从工单中确定出规模信息和针对服务团队的产能需求信息；获取多个服务团队的特 征信息，特征信息包括团队领导者职级信息、团队剩余产能信息和服务质量信息；根据产能需求信息、 团队剩余产能信息和服务质量信息，从多个服务团队中筛选出目标服务团队；基于第一映射关系，确定 规模信息对应的工单派发优先级信息，工单派发优先级信息用于指示具有不同团队领导者职级信息的目 标服务团队的工单派发优先级；基于工单派发优先级信息，从目标服务团队中确定出优先派单的服务团 队；以及将工单派发给优先派单的服务团队。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：情报员 天眼查资料显示，贝壳找房（北京）科技有限公司，成立于2015年，位于北京市，是一家以从事房地产 业为主的企业。企业注册资本10 ...

格隆汇1月22日丨贝壳-W(02423.HK)发布公告，2026年1月21日耗资300万美元回购49.6万股。 ...

智通财经APP讯，贝壳-W(02423)发布公告，于2026年1月21日，该公司斥资300万美元回购49.59万股。 ...