Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's market share is expected to continue increasing, with significant expansion in new business segments. Despite uncertainties in the real estate transaction market, the company's platform advantages and store expansion are driving market share growth. The home decoration and rental businesses are expected to drive secondary growth. The current stock price of 60.0 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.7/23.5/21.5 for 2025-2027, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [6][8]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company reported a revenue of 311 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations. However, the non-GAAP net profit was 13.4 billion CNY, below expectations due to lower gross margins and higher expenses [7]. - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 73.3 billion CNY and 83.3 billion CNY, respectively, down from previous estimates of 89.8 billion CNY and 103.7 billion CNY. A new forecast for 2027 is set at 91.4 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.5%/+13.6%/+9.7% [6][10]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 77,777 million CNY, 93,457 million CNY, 104,460 million CNY, 116,695 million CNY, and 126,005 million CNY, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 28.2%, 20.2%, 11.8%, 11.7%, and 8.0% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and market share in brokerage, indicating a long-term positive trend despite short-term performance fluctuations [6][7] - The company reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with significant contributions from existing home transactions and emerging businesses [6][7] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, having repurchased shares worth 716 million USD and planned a cash dividend of 400 million USD, representing 5% of the market value at the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 77.777 billion yuan - 2024: 93.457 billion yuan (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 110.740 billion yuan (18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 122.649 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) - 2027E: 135.786 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) [6][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 5.883 billion yuan - 2024: 4.065 billion yuan (-31% YoY) - 2025E: 6.201 billion yuan (53% YoY) - 2026E: 7.544 billion yuan (22% YoY) - 2027E: 9.121 billion yuan (21% YoY) [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 1.63 yuan - 2024: 1.15 yuan - 2025E: 1.76 yuan - 2026E: 2.14 yuan - 2027E: 2.58 yuan [6][10] Market Share and Business Segments - The company achieved a record high market share of 31% in existing home transactions for 2024, with a transaction volume of 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% YoY [6][7] - In the new home segment, the company reported a transaction volume of 970 billion yuan, down 3.3% YoY, but maintained a market share of 11.4% [6][8] - The company’s home decoration and rental services saw significant revenue growth, with home decoration revenue increasing by 36% and rental services by 135% [6][8] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report concludes that the company’s revenue and brokerage market share are at record highs, and despite short-term performance fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, thus maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 93.46 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while the adjusted net profit was 7.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% [1]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to rising costs and taxes, with operating costs increasing by 25.8% year-on-year, surpassing revenue growth [2]. - The company is focusing on long-term sustainable growth by increasing investments in stores and agents, which is expected to gradually improve performance [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, with an adjusted net profit of 1.34 billion yuan, down 21.6% year-on-year [1]. Operational Analysis - The company experienced growth in both existing and new housing revenues, with a notable increase in the monetization rate for new homes [2]. - The gross transaction value (GTV) for existing homes increased by 10.8%, while new homes saw a decrease of 3.3% [2]. Non-Transaction Business Growth - Non-property transaction revenue accounted for 34% of total revenue, up 9.1 percentage points year-on-year, with home decoration and rental income showing significant growth [3]. - Home decoration GTV increased by 27.3%, and rental income surged by 135%, with over 430,000 managed rental units by year-end [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 is 8.65 billion, 9.88 billion, and 10.96 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 20.0%, 14.2%, and 10.9% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23.1x, 20.2x, and 18.2x for 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction volume of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The existing home transaction volume was 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, accounting for 67.1% of total transactions. The new home transaction volume was 0.97 trillion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with a market share of 11.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023. The company's net revenue for 2024 was 93.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while adjusted net profit was 7.21 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The second-hand housing market showed a 6% increase in transaction area in 35 key cities, while the new housing market saw a 12.9% decline in transaction area nationwide. The company, as a leading internet intermediary, is expected to benefit from the market recovery [2] Operational Efficiency - The company's operating expenses for 2024 were 19.2 billion yuan, with a fee rate of 20.5%, down 1.2 percentage points from 2023. The number of stores increased to 51,573, with active stores at 49,693, a growth of 18.3%. The number of agents reached 500,000, with active agents at 445,000, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [3] Revenue Growth from New Segments - The home decoration business generated net revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, accounting for 15.8% of total revenue. The rental business saw net revenue of 14.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 135% year-on-year, contributing to 15.3% of total revenue. The "second curve" revenue contribution reached 34%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 6.8 billion yuan in 2025, with an adjusted earnings per share of 1.89 yuan. The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 101.37 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% growth [11][10]

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, total transaction value reached RMB 3,349.4 billion, an increase of 6.6% compared to RMB 3,142.9 billion in 2023[4]. - Net income for the fiscal year was RMB 93.5 billion, up 20.2% from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023[4]. - Adjusted net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 72.1 billion, down from RMB 97.98 billion in 2023[6]. - In 2024, net revenue increased by 20.2% to RMB 93.5 billion from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023, driven by growth in new housing and home decoration businesses[22]. - Total net revenue for 2024 reached RMB 93.46 billion, a 20.1% increase from RMB 77.78 billion in 2023[96]. - Operating profit for 2024 was RMB 3.76 billion, down 21.5% from RMB 4.80 billion in 2023[97]. - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 4,078,180, a decrease of 30.7% compared to RMB 5,889,604 in 2023[105]. - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 1.19 from RMB 1.67, reflecting a decline of 28.7%[99]. Business Growth - The number of stores increased to 51,573, representing a growth of 17.7% from 43,817 stores in 2023[6]. - Active agents reached 499,937, a rise of 16.9% from 427,656 agents in 2023[6]. - The total transaction value of existing homes was RMB 2,246.5 billion, a 10.8% increase from RMB 2,028.0 billion in 2023[4]. - The total transaction value for home decoration and furniture was RMB 16.9 billion, up 27.3% from RMB 13.3 billion in 2023[4]. - The home decoration and furnishing business saw a total transaction value growth of 27.3% year-on-year and a revenue increase of 36.1% in 2024, with profit margin rising from 29.0% in 2023 to 30.7% in 2024[13]. - The rental housing service expanded its managed properties to over 430,000 units by the end of 2024, up from over 210,000 units at the end of 2023[15]. Operational Efficiency - The average turnover days for new housing accounts receivable decreased to just 34 days in Q4 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency[12]. - Contribution profit margin for existing housing business decreased from 47.2% in 2023 to 43.2% in 2024, primarily due to increased fixed salary costs for agents[26]. - Contribution profit for home decoration improved from 29.0% in 2023 to 30.7% in 2024, due to refined operational management and enhanced supply chain capabilities[29]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flow from operating activities decreased to RMB 9.45 billion in 2024 from RMB 11.41 billion in 2023[49]. - The net cash generated from operating activities for 2024 is RMB 9.4 billion, with a net profit of RMB 4.078 billion, reflecting a difference due to non-cash adjustments of RMB 3.681 billion[54]. - The company’s total cash outflow from investing activities was RMB 9,378,025 in 2024, compared to RMB 3,977,440 in 2023, indicating a significant increase in investment expenditures[106]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to pay a total dividend of approximately $400 million, reflecting its strong cash reserves and commitment to shareholder returns[19]. - The board approved a final cash dividend of $0.12 per ordinary share and $0.36 per American depositary share, totaling approximately $400 million to be paid from the company's retained earnings[85]. - The company repurchased approximately $716 million worth of American Depositary Shares in 2024, representing about 3.89% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023[19]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company has complied with all applicable principles and code provisions of the corporate governance code during the reporting period[80]. - The audit committee has reviewed the unaudited annual results for the year ending December 31, 2024[84]. - The company emphasizes that the decision to distribute dividends is subject to future operational performance, capital requirements, and other relevant factors[86]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses grew by 17.9% from RMB 1.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.3 billion in 2024, mainly due to an increase in the number of R&D personnel and technical service costs[36]. - The company is focused on enhancing the C2M service model through data-driven insights to better meet market demands in the residential development sector[16]. Market Position and Strategy - The company emphasized strengthening its "one-stop living service platform" capabilities to drive solid business development and ecological value release[8]. - The company plans to enhance its platform capabilities and expand into new markets, focusing on strategic growth initiatives[94]. - The company aims to leverage AI for personalized customer insights and improve service capabilities across its business lines in 2025[18].

Group 1 - The company reported a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 4.065 billion yuan for the year 2024, a decrease of 30.91% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved total net revenue of 31.125 billion yuan, an increase of 54.05% year-on-year, with a net profit of 570 million yuan, down 14.88% year-on-year [1] - The total number of stores reached 51,573 by December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 17.7% year-on-year, while the number of active stores increased by 18.3% to 49,693 [1] Group 2 - The company’s CEO highlighted that the Chinese real estate industry is entering a new phase, with customer demand shifting towards reducing decision-making risks and pursuing housing quality [2] - The total transaction volume on the platform reached 33,494 billion yuan, with net revenue hitting a historical high of 93.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.2% [2] - The company plans to enhance its strategic direction by integrating technology and humanistic values, aiming to improve consumer experience and service efficiency [2] Group 3 - The CFO noted that both the existing and new housing markets experienced significant recovery following the stimulus policies introduced in September 2024, with an increase in transaction volume for existing homes [3] - The proportion of existing home transactions in the national real estate transaction volume has further increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]

Financial Performance - Total transaction value for 2024 reached RMB 3,349.4 billion (USD 458.9 billion), an increase of 6.6% year-on-year[4] - Net income for 2024 was RMB 93.5 billion (USD 12.8 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%[5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 72.11 billion (USD 9.88 billion), a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year[5] - Total revenue for 2024 increased by 20.2% to RMB 93.5 billion (USD 12.8 billion) from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023, driven by growth in new housing and home decoration businesses[27] - Operating profit for 2024 was RMB 3.765 billion (USD 516 million), with an operating margin of 4.0%, down from 6.2% in 2023[34] - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 4.078 billion (USD 559 million), compared to RMB 5.890 billion in 2023[37] - The company reported a basic earnings per share of RMB 1.19 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1.67 in 2023, a decrease of 29%[73] Transaction and Revenue Growth - Active stores as of December 31, 2024, totaled 51,573, a growth of 17.7% compared to the previous year[6] - Active agents numbered 499,937 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.9%[6] - The total transaction value for Q4 2024 was RMB 1,143.8 billion (USD 156.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 55.5%[5] - In Q4 2024, the company's net revenue increased by 54.1% year-over-year to RMB 31.1 billion (USD 4.3 billion) from RMB 20.2 billion, driven by growth in total transaction volume and expansion in housing rental services[10] - The net revenue from existing housing business in Q4 2024 was RMB 8.9 billion (USD 1.2 billion), a 47.5% increase from RMB 6.0 billion in Q4 2023[10] - The net revenue from new housing business in Q4 2024 increased by 72.7% to RMB 13.1 billion (USD 1.8 billion) from RMB 7.6 billion in Q4 2023[12] Cost and Expense Management - Operating costs for 2024 increased by 25.8% to RMB 70.5 billion (USD 9.7 billion) from RMB 56.1 billion in 2023[29] - The company's operating costs for external commissions increased by 11.5% to RMB 22.8 billion (USD 3.1 billion) in 2024, compared to RMB 20.4 billion in 2023, driven by new home business net income growth[31] - Internal commission and salary costs rose by 11.1% to RMB 18.9 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in 2024 from RMB 17 billion in 2023, due to increased transactions and improved benefits for agents[31] - Operating expenses grew by 13.3% to RMB 19.2 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in 2024, up from RMB 16.9 billion in 2023[33] Research and Development - The company's research and development expenses in Q4 2024 rose by 38.4% to RMB 739 million (USD 101 million) due to an increase in the number of R&D personnel and technical service costs[17] - Research and development expenses increased by 17.9% to RMB 2.3 billion (USD 300 million) in 2024, primarily due to an increase in R&D personnel and technical service costs[35] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase approximately USD 716 million worth of shares in 2024, representing about 3.9% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023[10] - The company announced a final cash dividend of USD 0.12 per ordinary share, totaling approximately USD 400 million[42] - The dividend payment date is expected to be around April 22, 2025, for common shareholders and April 25, 2025, for American depositary share holders[44] Market Strategy and Outlook - The company aims to enhance customer experience and service efficiency through technology and humanistic values[7] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its service offerings in the coming fiscal year[27] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to drive growth[54] - The management anticipates a positive outlook for the overall economic conditions in China, which may influence future business performance[54] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 61.6 billion (USD 8.4 billion) as of December 31, 2024[25] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from RMB 19.63 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.44 billion in 2024, a decline of about 41.6%[58] - The total current liabilities are expected to rise from RMB 39.52 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.74 billion in 2024, an increase of approximately 33.4%[60] - The total net increase in cash and cash equivalents for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 4,480,990, compared to RMB 3,862,085 for the same period in 2023, reflecting an increase of 16%[80] Non-GAAP Metrics - The company utilizes non-GAAP financial metrics to assess operational performance, including adjusted operating profit and adjusted net profit[48] - Adjusted operating profit excludes stock-based compensation, intangible asset amortization, and impairment of goodwill and other long-term assets[49] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP metrics should not be viewed in isolation and encourages investors to review them alongside GAAP metrics[49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Views - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share in lower-tier cities through its platform, Beilian. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operating environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance growth and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. The home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term but are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and the home decoration and rental sectors can contribute to potential growth, with data assets holding significant value elasticity, making the company a strategic allocation target [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, focusing on digitalizing and smartening the residential service industry. It provides a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service including second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's total transaction volume (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% [18][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has built a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, creating a barrier that competitors find hard to cross. The ACN network breaks traditional competitive dilemmas, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding single-store economies to regional economies. The company's self-operated brand, Lianjia, has successfully captured customer mindshare through its property dictionary, genuine listings, and service commitments, resulting in significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [6][36]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in the second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and leveraging the Beilian platform for continuous expansion. The impact of commission reductions in Beijing is gradually diminishing, and the commission rate for second-hand transactions has shown signs of recovery [7][9]. Business Expansion and Future Growth - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting focus from blind expansion to solidifying internal capabilities and enhancing management efficiency. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income, and is expected to maintain good growth momentum. The company is exploring new profit points through its data assets and partnerships with developers [8][9][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business saw significant growth, reaching 10.9 billion yuan, while rental income reached 9.8 billion yuan, accounting for 16%. The overall gross margin improved to 27.9%, and the company successfully turned a profit with a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 [30][32]. Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through substantial dividends and buybacks, ensuring a solid bottom-line return for shareholders. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4 times. Given its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity, the company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium in the short term [9][10].

联合研究丨港股公司深度丨贝壳-W（2423.HK） [Table_Title] 房屋经纪王者归来，三翼齐飞开拓未来 ——贝壳-W 深度覆盖报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 经纪主业护城河竞对难以逾越，直营品牌链家先发占据核心战场，通过贝联把握下沉市场实现 市占扩张。二手市场边际向好而低线城市新房市场低迷为公司经营舒适区间，二手业务提量新 房业务提价，公司业绩持续增厚，经营杠杆也会放大盈利弹性。家装与租赁业务短期增收不增 利，但中期有望为公司贡献较大业绩增量。鉴于竞争优势、相对稀缺、潜在业绩弹性以及入通 后的增量资金等因素，公司短期应当享有一定估值溢价。中长期角度，经纪业务份额仍有提升 空间，家装、租赁可贡献潜在增长，数据资产具备较大价值弹性，公司属于战略配置品种。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 范超 蔡方羿 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516060001 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BUV463 袁佳楠 ...

上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 03 月 08 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——存量市场王者，居住成长新星 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 64.50 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8914.03 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 73.50/32.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,336.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,477.71 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0839 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 贝壳简介：创业垂统、 ...