港交所消息：8月15日，贝莱德对中国铝业H股的多头头寸从6.17%降至5.61%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Raw Materials Index has shown significant growth, with a 66.50% increase year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the raw materials sector [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Raw Materials Index reported a value of 2721.61 points [1]. - The index has increased by 16.75% over the past month and 41.99% over the last three months [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (25.69%), China Hongqiao (11.83%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (7.66%) [1]. - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1]. Group 3: Sector Breakdown - The index's sample composition shows that non-ferrous metals account for 79.48%, non-metallic materials for 14.17%, chemicals for 4.69%, and paper and packaging for 1.66% [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On August 18, a significant block trade of China Aluminum occurred, indicating notable trading activity and potential investor interest in the stock [2] Trading Activity - A block trade of 525,000 shares was executed at a transaction value of 3.78 million yuan, with a transaction price of 7.20 yuan, reflecting a discount of 6.74% compared to the closing price of the day [2] - Over the past three months, China Aluminum has recorded a total of six block trades, amounting to 32.44 million yuan [2] Stock Performance - The closing price of China Aluminum on the day of the report was 7.72 yuan, which represented a decline of 3.02% [2] - The stock had a turnover rate of 2.29% and a total trading volume of 2.353 billion yuan, with a net outflow of main funds amounting to 49.56 million yuan for the day [2] - In the last five days, the stock has increased by 2.80%, with a total net inflow of funds reaching 169 million yuan [2] Margin Financing - The latest margin financing balance for China Aluminum stood at 2.455 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 106 million yuan over the past five days, which corresponds to a growth rate of 4.50% [2]

| 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 平安证券股份有限 | 兴业证券股份有限 | | 2025-08-18 | 中国铝业 | 601600 | 7.2 378 | 52.5 | 公司晋江泉安中路 | 公司晋江分公司 | | | | | | | Ver 244 ±± . . 40 | | 8月18日，中国铝业大宗交易成交52.5万股，成交额378万元，占当日总成交额的0.16%，成交价7.2元，较市场收盘价7.72元折价6.74%。 ...

Group 1 - The Xinhua 500 Index (989001) closed at 4668.98 points on August 18, with an increase of 0.95% [1][4] - The index opened higher in the morning, experienced a slight pullback for gap filling, and then rose significantly before narrowing its gains in the afternoon [3] - The index reached a high of 4704.83 points and a low of 4625.92 points during the trading day, with a total trading volume of 893.2 billion yuan, which was an increase compared to the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - Notable gainers among constituent stocks included Mango Super Media, which rose by 16.98%, Junshi Biosciences by 12.05%, and Tonghuashun by 10.27%, with several stocks reaching approximately 10% limit up [3] - Conversely, stocks such as Bank of China Securities, Siyuan Electric, and CITIC Special Steel experienced significant declines [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum Industry in China - **Market Dynamics**: The China aluminum market is transitioning into a new era where global high-cost producers are setting price support, while China's cost advantages are expected to widen due to lower power tariffs and coal costs [1][36][60]. Price Forecasts - **Long-term Price Objective**: The long-term price forecast for China aluminum has been raised to RMB20,000/ton from RMB19,000/ton, with a medium-term price floor expected at RMB19,800/ton (US$2,400/ton) [1][36][61]. - **2025 Price Forecast**: The aluminum price forecast for 2025 has been increased to RMB20,500/ton, reflecting a tight market and low inventory levels [1][25][61]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Demand Growth**: China aluminum demand is projected to grow at 2-3% YoY in 2H25-26E, driven by strong grid demand and automotive lightweighting, despite a slowdown in the property and solar sectors [2][24][29]. - **Supply Constraints**: China's aluminum production capacity is nearing a cap of 45 million tons, with operating capacity already at 44.2 million tons. Future supply growth will increasingly rely on imports [1][26][35]. - **Global Supply**: There is a global pipeline of 7.5 million tons of new capacity, but ramp-up may be slower than expected due to power and infrastructure uncertainties, particularly in Indonesia [2][27]. Company-Specific Insights - **Top Picks**: Hongqiao and Chalco are identified as top picks due to their strong cash flows, decent dividend yields (8% for Hongqiao, 5% for Chalco), and cost advantages [3][62]. - **Earnings Estimates**: - Hongqiao's 2025 EPS has been raised by 10% to RMB2.63, with a price objective increased to HKD26 from HKD20 [3][61]. - Chalco's 2025 EPS has been raised by 14% to RMB0.76, with price objectives for Chalco-H and Chalco-A increased to HKD8.0 and RMB9.0, respectively [3][6][61]. Cost Structure and Margins - **Cost Advantage**: China's C1 cash cost is 5% lower than the global average, with expectations for this advantage to widen in 2025 due to lower power costs [1][36][45]. - **Margin Expectations**: The expected margin for low-cost integrated producers like Hongqiao and Chalco is projected to be RMB3,000-4,000/ton, significantly above the long-term average of RMB1,000-2,000/ton [1][24][60]. Risks and Considerations - **Policy Uncertainty**: The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has led to policy uncertainty, which may affect bauxite prices and alumina costs [2][33]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: While recycled aluminum production is increasing, it is not expected to offset the structural deficit in the near term [28]. Conclusion - The aluminum market in China is characterized by tight supply, strong demand, and favorable cost dynamics for key producers. The outlook for Hongqiao and Chalco remains positive, supported by strong cash flows and dividend yields, amidst a backdrop of rising aluminum prices and constrained supply.

Summary of China Aluminum Industry Conference Call Company Overview - China Aluminum, established in 2001, is a leading company in the aluminum industry globally, primarily engaged in alumina, electrolytic aluminum, trading, and energy sectors. As of the end of 2024, the company has an alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons, electrolytic aluminum capacity of 7.62 million tons, and coal production capacity of 16.6 million tons. A slight increase in capacity is expected in 2025 [2][3] Key Financial Performance - The company reported a steady revenue stream, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 12.4 billion yuan in 2024, an 85% year-on-year increase, driven by a 40% rise in alumina spot prices and a 7% increase in electrolytic aluminum prices [2][7] - The company has gradually reduced its trading segment, with its revenue share decreasing from 56% in 2022 to 44% in 2024 [2][8] Subsidiary Performance - Among its subsidiaries, Guangxi Huasheng led with a net profit of 2.125 billion yuan in 2024, while other subsidiaries like Baotou Foundry, Guizhou Huajin, and others reported net profits around 1.5 billion yuan each [2][6] Capital Expenditure and Resource Management - Capital expenditures have been significant, with amounts of 4.8 billion yuan in 2022, 6.7 billion yuan in 2023, and projected at 10-15 billion yuan in 2024. The company plans to maintain capital expenditures between 10 billion to 15 billion yuan in 2025 [5][10] - China Aluminum controls about half of the domestic bauxite resources, with early production concentrated in Shanxi and Henan. The overseas Boffa mine in Guinea is expected to increase production to 20 million tons in the coming years [5][11] Debt and Dividend Policy - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio has decreased to approximately 48%, attributed to significant asset impairments. The dividend payout ratio has increased from 15% to 30% since 2021, with expectations for further increases aligned with performance growth [2][9] Market Outlook and Profit Forecast - For the years 2025 to 2027, projected net profits are 12.38 billion yuan, 14.837 billion yuan, and 17.283 billion yuan, respectively, based on assumptions of electrolytic aluminum prices at 20,500 yuan/ton, 21,000 yuan/ton, and 21,500 yuan/ton, and alumina prices at 3,100 yuan/ton [16] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 11 times for 2025 and 9.2 times for 2026, maintaining an outperform rating for the company [16] Additional Insights - The trading segment, managed by China Aluminum International Trading Group, is responsible for logistics services and has contributed significantly to profits, with a reported net profit of about 1 billion yuan in 2024 [13][14] - The energy segment, primarily through Ningxia Energy, reported a net profit of 750 million yuan in 2024, with coal production of 13.16 million tons and electricity sales of 16.3 billion kWh [15] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic direction, and market outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply expectations for copper are further tightening, leading to a robust performance in copper prices. Additionally, the gold market is expected to benefit from rising inflation expectations in the U.S. due to tariff disturbances [1][38] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase this week [13] - Price fluctuations among non-ferrous metals varied, with some prices rising while others fell [23] 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Supply expectations are tightening, with global copper inventories increasing by 0.84 thousand tons. Chile's copper production growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced [2] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to macroeconomic sentiments, with a slight increase in supply and moderate demand [2] 3. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Supply disruptions are causing lithium prices to rebound strongly, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15% to 83,000 CNY/ton [3] - **Metal Silicon**: The market remains stable with no significant changes in the fundamentals, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] 4. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by U.S. inflation data, with a notable increase in the PPI to 3.7% in July, leading to expectations of continued upward pressure on gold prices [1][38] 5. Key Stocks - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market conditions [1][2][3]

中國鋁業股份有限公司 葛小雷 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 董事會召開日期 中 國 鋁 業 股 份 有 限 公 司（「本公司」）董 事 會（「董事會」）謹 此 宣 佈 本 公 司 將 於2025年8月27日（星 期 三）召 開 董 事 會 會 議，藉 以（其 中 包 括）審 議 及 批 准 本公司及其附屬公司截至2025年6月30日止六個月期間之未經審計的中 期 業 績 及 考 慮 派 發 中 期 股 息（如 有）之 建 議。 承董事會命 公司秘書 中國‧北京 2025年8月15日 於 本 公 告 刊 發 日 期，董 事 會 成 員 包 括 執 行 董 事 何 文 建 先 生、毛 世 清 先 生 及 蔣 濤 先 生，非 執 行 董 事 李 謝 華 先 生 及 江 皓 先 生，獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 余 勁 松 先 生、陳 遠 秀 女 士 及 李 小 斌 先 生。 ...

格隆汇8月15日丨中国铝业(02600.HK)宣布，公司将于2025年8月27日(星期三)召开董事会会议，藉以(其 中包括)审议及批准公司及其附属公司截至2025年6月30日止六个月期间的未经审计的中期业绩及考虑派 发中期股息(如有)的建议。 ...