股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鋁業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601600 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a mid-term dividend to reward shareholders. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.81% [4][6] - The revenue for Q2 2025 was 60.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.65%. The net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.13% [4] - The performance fluctuations were mainly due to increased profits from the production and sales of primary aluminum and alumina, alongside decreased margins from self-produced coal and reduced profits from trading activities [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from the primary aluminum segment was 75.95 billion yuan (up 11.38% year-on-year), while the alumina segment generated 33.24 billion yuan (up 5.75% year-on-year). Production volumes for metallurgical-grade alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and coal increased by 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average price of alumina in the domestic futures market for H1 2025 was 3,192 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The price of alumina is expected to stabilize as industry supply pressures ease [5] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained its mid-term dividend policy, planning to distribute a cash dividend of 0.123 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling 2.11 billion yuan (before tax), which accounts for approximately 30% of the company's net profit for the first half of 2025 [6] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 14.84 billion yuan, 15.89 billion yuan, and 16.61 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.08, 8.48, and 8.11 times [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) has launched a special action plan for 2025 aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency while returning value to shareholders, aligning with various governmental guidelines and market initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Work Goals - The company aims to produce 16.81 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 4.46 million tons of fine alumina, 7.8 million tons of primary aluminum (including alloys), 14.1 million tons of raw coal, and generate 41.2 billion kWh of electricity by 2025 [2]. - The strategic focus includes building a world-class aluminum company through resource mining, technological innovation, advanced materials, and green low-carbon initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Performance in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved production of 8.6 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 3.97 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 6.61 million tons of coal, representing year-on-year increases of 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% respectively [3]. - The company reported revenue of 116.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.12%, and a total profit of 13.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 7.1 billion yuan, marking increases of 2.16% and 0.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Future Work Measures - The company plans to enhance production operations, upgrade management, and drive technological innovation to improve profitability and value creation [4][5]. - Key initiatives include rigorous cost control, project implementation, and optimizing traditional industry structures to support sustainable development [4][5]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Recognition - The company will improve information disclosure to enhance transparency and maintain high-quality communication with investors [5][6]. - Strengthening investor relations through multiple engagement channels and enhancing shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks are also prioritized [5][6]. Group 5: ESG and Value Management - The company aims to lead in green and sustainable development within the aluminum industry by enhancing its ESG governance and performance [6]. - A focus on value management will be established to improve investment value and shareholder returns through various strategic tools [6].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China Aluminum (601600)(02600) achieved a net profit of 7.1 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with earnings per share of 0.412 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs has raised its profit forecast for China Aluminum for 2025-2026 by 11% to 15%, expecting regular net profits to remain strong at 13.3 billion RMB in 2025 and 14 billion RMB in 2026 [1] - The free cash flow yield for the next two years is projected to reach 22% [1] Price Forecasts - The target price for China Aluminum's H-shares has been increased from 6.3 HKD to 7.6 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Margin Adjustments - The forecast for alumina gross margins has been raised by 30% to 70% for the next two years, reflecting higher average selling prices achieved in the first half of the year [1] - However, due to expected acceleration in imports from Guinea, the profit forecast for self-supplied bauxite alumina has been lowered, with import bauxite prices adjusted down from 90 USD per ton to 75 USD per ton for the second half of this year through 2026 [1] - The alumina production forecast for 2026 has been increased by 9%, reflecting the full production of the Guangxi Huasheng project [1] - The aluminum gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026 have been reduced by 12% to 18%, reflecting higher operating costs observed in the first half of the year, with unit operating cost estimates raised by 5% to 6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's operating performance shows steady growth despite a challenging market environment, achieving record highs in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Aluminum reported revenue of approximately 1164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 5% [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.71 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.81% year-on-year [1][4]. - The operating cash flow reached 142.65 billion yuan, marking the best level for the same period since the company's establishment [1][12]. Production and Supply Chain - The production of key products such as alumina, primary aluminum, and fine alumina all saw year-on-year growth [1]. - The self-sufficiency rate of alumina ore reached a five-year high, increasing by 6 percentage points since the beginning of the year [2]. - The production volumes for alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased by 4.88% and 9.37% respectively compared to the previous year [6]. Debt and Financial Health - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 46.88% by the end of June 2025, continuing a downward trend [2][12]. - Financial expenses for the first half of 2025 were 11.89 billion yuan, marking a continued decline [2][12]. Dividend Distribution - China Aluminum plans to distribute a cash dividend of 21.10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, which accounts for approximately 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3][13]. Strategic Focus and Innovation - The company is focusing on resource security, technological innovation, and high-end materials to enhance its competitive edge [6][9]. - Significant investments in research and development have been made, with R&D expenditures from 2021 to 2024 being 24.93 billion yuan, 66.66 billion yuan, 54.44 billion yuan, and 31.70 billion yuan respectively [11].

Summary of Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) - **Stock Ticker**: 2600.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$117.4 billion / $15.1 billion - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically aluminum and alumina production Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb7.1 billion, EPS of Rmb0.412, up 1% YoY [1] - **Recurring Net Profit Estimate**: Rmb6.7 billion, up 2% YoY, inline with estimates [1] - **Interim Dividend**: Rmb0.123 per share, 30% payout ratio, higher than 20% in 1H24 [1] - **Revenue Growth**: 5% YoY to Rmb116.4 billion in 1H25 [35] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Dropped 37% YoY to Rmb9.5 billion [30] Earnings Estimates Revision - **Earnings Estimates for 2025-26**: Revised up by 11-15% due to higher alumina profit, despite lower aluminum profit [2] - **Projected Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb13.3 billion in 2025E and Rmb14.0 billion in 2026E [2] - **Free Cash Flow Yield**: Expected to reach 22% for 2025-26E [2] Segment Performance - **Aluminum Segment**: Contributed 55% of total gross profit, increased by 3% YoY, but below expectations due to lower realized ASP and higher COGS [26] - **Alumina Segment**: Contributed 40% of total gross profit, up 19% YoY, driven by higher realized ASP [27] - **Energy and Trading Segment**: Contributed 5% of total gross profit, down 65% YoY due to lower margins [28] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - **Unit Operating Cost**: Increased by 3% YoY for aluminum, 9% above estimates [26] - **Realized ASP for Aluminum**: Declined by 2% YoY, while alumina ASP increased by 2% YoY [26][27] - **Projected Alumina Production Volume**: Revised up by 9% for 2026E [24] Valuation and Price Target - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$7.60 (from HK$6.30) and Rmb8.00 (from Rmb6.80) [2] - **P/E Ratios**: Expected to be 6.2 in 2024, rising to 9.6 by 2027 [14] - **P/B Ratios**: Expected to be 1.1 in 2024, rising to 1.1 by 2027 [14] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Lower aluminum and alumina pricing, removal of capacity caps, slower green demand, and higher supply from recycled aluminum [32][42] - **Upside Risks**: Higher pricing driven by better supply-demand balance and enhanced capacity caps [33][43] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Maintain Buy/Neutral on Chalco-H/A, with strong earnings outlook supported by elevated industry spreads and robust alumina demand [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].

Group 1 - The main stocks with significant capital outflows include Northern Rare Earth (-2.106 billion), Huasheng Tiancheng (-2.033 billion), and SMIC (-1.852 billion) [1][2] - Other notable stocks with large capital outflows are Lingyi Technology (-1.732 billion), Yanshan Technology (-1.407 billion), and Topway Information (-1.214 billion) [1][2] - The total capital outflow from the top 20 stocks indicates a trend of investors pulling back from certain sectors, particularly in small metals, internet services, and semiconductor industries [1][2][3] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth leads the outflow with a significant amount of -2.106 billion, indicating potential concerns in the small metals sector [2] - Huasheng Tiancheng and SMIC also show substantial outflows, suggesting a negative sentiment in the internet services and semiconductor sectors respectively [2][3] - The data reflects a broader trend of capital movement away from certain industries, which may impact future investment strategies [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Aluminum's revenue for the first half of the year reached 116.392 billion yuan, an annual increase of 5.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.071 billion yuan, up 0.81% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In the second quarter, revenue was 60.609 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.65% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter was 3.533 billion yuan, down 26.18% year-on-year and down 0.13% quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Outlook - The firm believes that under the constraint of an electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling, aluminum prices will remain high, leading to stable profit growth for the company [1] - The rating is maintained at "Buy," with the target price raised from 4.62 HKD to 8.27 HKD [1] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 21%, 12.9%, and 7.6% respectively, to 15.064 billion yuan, 15.655 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metal Industry ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of over 2% during intraday trading, currently up by 1.49% [1] - Key constituent stocks include China Rare Earth, which hit the daily limit, and Jiangxi Copper and Shenghe Resources, with respective gains of 4.72% and 4.54% [1] - Conversely, stocks such as Bowe Alloy, Nanshan Aluminum, and Western Superconducting showed weaker performance, with declines of 2.89%, 2.85%, and 2.18% respectively [1] Group 2 - The Nonferrous Metal Industry ETF (159876) passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which increased by 1.59% on the same day [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and China Aluminum, among others [3] Group 3 - On August 26, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 167.7 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 54.4% respectively [5] - Huachuang Securities noted that Powell's comments reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support precious metal prices [5] - Recent declines in aluminum rod inventories indicate a recovery in market consumption, with the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season likely to bolster aluminum prices [5] - Nanjing Securities reported that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations, with stable support expected from traditional demand in real estate and infrastructure, as well as increasing demand from new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors [5]