[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-06 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 黄金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多金价 核心观点： [Table_Summary] 金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多。1）关税相关信息仍导致金价持续 波动：一方面是贸易紧张情绪继续缓和，4/28 贝森特继续向市场传递出 "将与多国达成协议以及有望与中国开启贸易谈判"的讯号，5/2 中国商 务部则表示"美方近期通过相关方面主动向中方传递信息希望谈判，对 此中方正在进行评估"，贸易紧张情绪缓和，使得金价承压。但另一方面， 关税的不确定性远未结束：首先，日美第二轮谈判仍然缺乏实质进展， 5/2 日本首相石破茂表示绝对不会接受对汽车加征关税（日美谈判核心议 题）；日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正在谈判中表示对美方关税政策感到 遗憾并强烈要求美方重新考虑；日本财务大臣加藤胜信则暗示日本持有 美债或可作为谈判筹码；其次，5/5 特朗普宣布对电影行业加征 100%关 税再度引发市场担忧，同时特朗普 NBC 专访报道也显示其仍然维持对 中国较为强硬的关税立场。2）近期美国部分经济数据也开始令市场有 ...

受益于黄金等金属价格走高，有色金属行业多家上市公司近年来业绩保持高速增长态势。 全球矿业巨头紫金矿业的业绩显示，2024年公司实现营业收入约为3036.4亿元，同比增长3.49%；归属母公司股东的净利润约为320.51亿元， 同比增长51.76%。一季度紫金矿业的营业收入为789.28亿元，同比增长5.55%；归属母公司股东的净利润为101.67亿元，同比增长62.39%。 对于业绩增长的原因，紫金矿业表示，2024年度，公司主营金属矿产品量价齐升，成本上升势头得到有效遏制，境外权属企业运营能力提 升，盈利能力增强。2024年度，公司矿产铜107万吨，矿产金73吨，矿产锌（铅）45万吨；矿产银436吨。 在铝价走高的情况下，中国铝业2024年实现营业收入2370.66亿元，同比增长5.21%；归属母公司股东的净利润124亿元，同比增长85.38%。今 年一季度，中国铝业实现营业收入557.84亿元，同比增长13.95%；归属母公司股东的净利润为35.38亿元，同比增长58.78%。 中国铝业表示，2024年，公司秉持极致经营理念，把握市场良好机遇，发挥全产业链优势，紧盯运营效率提升及成本精细化管控，实现高产 ...

在金属价格攀升的驱动下， 有色金属行业 整体业绩实现高增长。 Wind数据显示，紫金矿业、中国铝业、洛阳钼业等多家上市公司在2024年业绩大增的基础上，今年一季度的业绩仍保持快速增长态势。 多家龙头公司业绩持续高增长 中国铝业表示，2024年，公司秉持极致经营理念，把握市场良好机遇，发挥全产业链优势，紧盯运营效率提升及成本精细化管控，实现高产稳产优产，经营 业绩或创成立以来最佳。2025年公司将确保存量产能稳产高产优产、新建产能尽快达产达标达效。同时，公司将以更大力度推进铝土矿等资源获取，一方面 加大现有矿权勘探力度，积极参与新矿权竞拍，另一方面强化拓展海外资源获取渠道，进一步增强资源保障多元化程度。 | 止存间称 | 2024年 营收(亿 | 2024年官 收同比增长 | 2024年归 母净利海 | 2024年 F 母净利润 | | 2025年 李度宫收 | 2025年- | 2025年 度归 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 李度宫收 | | 李度归母 | | | | ル) | 华 (%) | (亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) H/A shares, with target prices adjusted to HKD6.10 for H-shares and RMB9.80 for A-shares, implying upside potentials of approximately 42% and 48% respectively [5][40]. Core Insights - Chalco reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of approximately RMB3.5 billion in 1Q25, reflecting a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 59% year-on-year increase, attributed to better-than-expected sales volume and average selling prices (ASP) for aluminum and alumina [1][9]. - The company expects capital expenditures of RMB14.8 billion in 2025, focusing on wind power projects and new alumina production sites, while aiming to increase green power usage from 47% in 2024 to 55% in 2025 [2][9]. - Despite solid fundamentals for aluminum, earnings are expected to decline by approximately 12% in 2025 due to lower alumina prices, with the alumina price already below breakeven levels [3][9]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, Chalco's sales volumes for self-produced aluminum decreased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, while alumina sales increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter. However, revenue and gross profits fell by 12% and 29% quarter-on-quarter respectively due to a significant drop in alumina prices [1][31]. - The company recorded a decrease in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses by 6% year-on-year and 66% quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [1][31]. - Investment income rose by RMB0.37 billion in 1Q25, driven by higher alumina prices year-on-year and gains from hedging [36]. Production and Operational Strategy - Chalco's aluminum production operating rate reached 95% in China, supported by demand from electric vehicles, batteries, and solar products [3][9]. - The company plans to relocate alumina production from inland to coastal provinces to reduce transportation costs and expects to close down 1-2 million tons of alumina production in 2025 [2][34]. - Chalco aims to optimize its alumina capacity of 25 million tons by utilizing lower-cost imported bauxite, which may lead to some impairment losses [34]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates steady aluminum prices in 2025, supported by robust demand from the "New Three" sectors, while alumina prices are expected to have limited downside due to their current low levels [3][9]. - The coal price and electricity costs remained weak in 1Q25, which may benefit Chalco's operational costs [3][9].

股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临 2025-027 中国铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 9 日披露了《中国 铝业股份有限公司关于控股股东及其一致行动人增持公司股份计划的公告》（公告 编号：临 2025-022），基于对公司未来发展前景的信心，并为切实维护中小投资者 利益，公司控股股东中国铝业集团有限公司（以下简称"中铝集团"）及其一致行 动人拟通过上海证券交易所（以下简称"上交所"）及香港联合交易所有限公司（以 下简称"香港联交所"）交易系统增持公司 A 股及 H 股股份，增持金额不低于人民 币 10 亿元，不超过人民币 20 亿元，增持股份数量不超过公司总股本的 2%，期限自 本次增持计划公告披露之日起不超过 12 个月，本次增持资金来源为增持主体自有资 金或金融机构增持股票专项贷款（以下简称"专项贷款"）。 公司于 2025 年 4 月 29 日收市后收到控股股东中铝集团的通知，截至 2025 年 4 月 29 日，中铝集团及其一致行动人通过上交所及香港联交所交易系统以自有资金和 专项贷款累计增持公司 A 股股份 53,971,083 股，增持金额约人 ...

中国银河近日发布A股有色金属行业2025Q1基金持仓分析：美国加征关税超预期，使美 国经济衰退与美元信用风险加大，全球黄金ETF基金加速流入与以我国央行为首的全球央行 持续增加黄金资产配置，有望推动金价持续上涨。金价站稳3000美元/盎司，黄金公司未来 的业绩中枢与现金流将会得到明显抬升，处于近10年估值底部附近的A股黄金股有望迎来价 值重估。 以下为研究报告摘要： 摘要： 2025Q1主动权益类公募基金重新增持A股有色金属行业，有色金属行业重仓持股市值占 股票投资市值比上行至2.18%：根据公募基金2025年一季报，我们统计全市场8139支主动权 益类基金，包含普通股票型基金、偏股混合型基金、平衡混合型基金、灵活配置型基金这些 主动权益基金，对基金配置有色金属行业的比例进行了定量分析。2025年一季度主动权益类 公募基金对金铜板块的增持，提升其在有色金属行业中的整体持仓水平。2025Q1主动权益 类公募基金对A股有色金属行业重仓持股市值占股票投资市值比为2.18%，环比2024Q4的 1.76%上行0.42个百分点，在连续两个季度的减持后，重新增持A股有色金属行业。 2025Q1主动权益类公募基对A股有色金 ...

[Table_Summary] 金：牛市未尽。1）短期金价冲高又回落，主要系市场定价中美贸易摩擦 边际缓和+联储独立性担忧缓解，叠加短线交易偏拥挤，属于正常调整： 本周美方对华关税立场有所软化，先是 4/23 凌晨贝森特提及预计中美贸 易关系缓和将在不久的未来发生，而后 4/23 晚间外媒称特朗普政府正考 虑对中国商品关税降至 50%-65%。此外，4/23 特朗普表示无意解雇美联 储主席鲍威尔，也打消了前期市场对联储独立性的担忧。同时，黄金短 期交易相对拥挤（尤其国内市场，本周沪金隐含波动率升至近 5 年峰值， 沪金单日成交额显著放量），放大了避险情绪边际缓和下的资金流出冲 击。2）黄金牛市并未结束：先看短期问题，黄金会需要一些时间震荡来 消化前期的热钱涌入，以及实现波动率正常化，但上涨逻辑并未损坏， 第一，本周关税缓和更像是美方在资本市场压力下 The Art of Deal 的再 次演绎，中方明确表示中美尚未就关税问题进行任何谈判，且中方显然 已做好准备不会轻易妥协；第二，虽然特朗普言辞反复，但其底层逻辑 仍是要求修正美国在全球利益版图中的位置，因此即便与中方开启谈判， 其核心诉求如削减贸易赤字等较难实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 55.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.86% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.538 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.56% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 3.444 billion yuan, up 57.78% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Sales - The company produced 1.94 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, and 4.48 million tons of alumina, up 5.4% year-on-year [1]. - The external sales volume of alumina reached 1.68 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [1]. - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,400 yuan/ton, up 7.3% year-on-year but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter; the average price of alumina was 3,863 yuan/ton, up 15.4% year-on-year but down 27.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross profit margin was 15.86%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 1.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Operating cash flow reached 6.260 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.06%, driven by increased operating profit and improved cash flow management [2]. - The company’s expense ratio was 3.86%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, with reductions in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [2]. Project Development and Resource Management - Key projects, including the Guangxi Huasheng Phase II alumina project and Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III electrolytic aluminum project, have been put into operation, enhancing resource security [2]. - The company has increased its supply of bauxite resources, with production and shipment from its Guinea mine rising by 8.18% and 27.89% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 10.913 billion yuan, 12.690 billion yuan, and 13.896 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -11.99%, +16.28%, and +9.50% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.64 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.81 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.4, 8.9, and 8.2 times [3].

金融界4月25日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，沪深300金属与采矿指数 (300金属与采矿，L11606) 报2380.65点。 数据统计显示，沪深300金属与采矿指数近一个月下跌4.75%，近三个月上涨3.70%，年至今上涨 7.50%。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同细分行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪 深300指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为10个一级行业、26个二级行业、70余个三级行业及100多个四 级行业。沪深300细分行业指数系列分别以进入各二级、三级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数，形成 沪深300细分行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，沪深300金属与采矿指数十大权重分别为：紫金矿业（31.22%）、北方稀土 （6.24%）、宝钢股份（6.15%）、山东黄金（6.06%）、中国铝业（5.51%）、洛阳钼业（5.35%）、华 友钴业（4.87%）、中金黄金（4.43%）、包钢股份（4.29%）、赣锋锂业（3.72%）。 从沪深300金属与采矿指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比82.17%、深圳证券交易所占 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 55.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a gross margin of 16% and a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a year-on-year increase in production of key products [1] - The company is focusing on resource development and supply security, aiming to enhance its mining capacity and create a self-controlled mineral resource supply chain [2] - The company is advancing its "Two Seas" strategy, with new projects in alumina and electrolytic aluminum contributing to its competitive edge in the industry [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 8.8, and 7.5 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, alumina production reached 5.43 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 1.94 million tons, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,400 yuan per ton, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while alumina averaged 3,833 yuan per ton, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 225.3 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 222.3 billion yuan for 2025 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its domestic mineral rights exploration and actively participate in the competition for mineral rights in key provinces [2] - New projects include the construction of several alumina and aluminum alloy projects, as well as renewable energy initiatives, with a target of achieving a 45.5% clean energy consumption ratio in electrolytic aluminum production [3] Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.60 yuan for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 13.6% [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 111.17 billion yuan, with a total share count of 17.16 billion shares [5]