1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to decline. As of today's close, Shanghai copper dropped by over RMB 10,000/ton from its high. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened significantly, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have declined notably. The willingness of previous long - position holders to close their positions has increased significantly. The spread between February and March contracts has weakened as copper prices fell, reflecting that the industry is not short of spot and near - month electrolytic copper. Technically, the futures price has fallen back to the trading range since January, and the pressure at the upper edge of the range can be continuously monitored [6]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum once rose to the RMB 26,000 mark and has since fallen back to around RMB 24,600 as of today's close. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened, non - ferrous metals have generally declined, and the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions is relatively strong. The spread between February and March contracts has rebounded significantly. As aluminum prices fall, the industry's willingness to replenish inventories may increase [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once rose to the RMB 150,000 mark and closed at the RMB 140,000 mark today. At the macro level, the short - term market has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has generally declined. Nickel prices have followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged, and short - term driving forces are weak. Technically, the support level at the RMB 140,000 mark should be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: This week, the raw material and finished product inventories of domestic refined copper rods have generally run smoothly. Raw material procurement and stocking have been advancing in an orderly manner, with a slight accumulation of inventory. The finished product inventory has increased due to the slowdown in downstream pick - up rhythm and the pre - holiday stocking operations of enterprises. On January 29, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 335,800 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from January 26 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: On January 30, China Aluminum (02600.HK) announced that on the same day, the company, Rio Tinto, and Valoriza Alumínio jointly entered into a share purchase agreement. According to the agreement, the company and Rio Tinto will acquire 446,606,615 common shares of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) held by Valoriza Alumínio through a joint - venture company in cash. These shares account for 68.596% of the total issued shares of CBA, and the acquisition price is approximately 4.689 billion Brazilian reals, equivalent to approximately RMB 6.286 billion [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME+COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and the relationship between the spread of Shanghai copper contracts and the main contract price [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum spread between contracts, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the demand for aluminum is entering a new cycle supported by emerging economies, with a projected CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Domestic aluminum production capacity has reached its peak, while supply constraints in Europe and the U.S. due to energy shortages are expected to limit recovery, leading to a systematic decline in global supply growth with a CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - The demand side is benefiting from fiscal and monetary easing, with traditional demand expected to be boosted, and new drivers such as energy storage and data centers emerging as new engines for aluminum demand [1] Group 2 - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion into regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017 [2] - Companies that are first to expand overseas will build a first-mover advantage by securing resources and energy-rich areas [2] Group 3 - The continuous expansion of the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum, combined with global fiscal and monetary policy support, is expected to drive aluminum prices to new highs, with low-cost maintenance leading to increased profit margins per ton of aluminum [3] - Current average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is around 10 times, indicating significant upward revaluation potential during price increases, suggesting a favorable environment for the sector [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on three selection criteria: companies with high capacity and market value that show significant performance elasticity with rising aluminum prices; companies with overseas expansion capabilities and strong growth potential; and prioritizing companies with high self-sufficiency in alumina, especially if alumina prices are at a low point [4] - Recommended stocks include China Hongqiao (01378), Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH, 02600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH, 02610), and Huatong Cable (605196.SH) [4]

据交易所数据显示，截至1月30日午间收盘，主力资金流出前20的股票分别为： 蓝色光标（-16.38亿元）、 北方稀土（-13.21亿元）、 紫金矿业（-12.56亿 元）、铜陵有色（-12.32亿元）、 洛阳钼业（-11.28亿元）、 浙文互联（-10.48亿元）、 江波龙（-9.78亿元）、 工业富联（-9.75亿元）、 包钢股份（-9.32 亿元）、 天齐锂业（-8.97亿元）、 赣锋锂业（-8.84亿元）、 华友钴业（-8.41亿元）、 特变电工（-8.31亿元）、 隆基绿能（-7.99亿元）、 江西铜业（-7.31 亿元）、 洲际油气（-6.35亿元）、 中兴通讯（-6.28亿元）、五 粮 液（-6.16亿元）、 中国铝业（-6.10亿元）、 利欧股份（-6.09亿元）。 | 股票名称 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 主力资金流向 | 所属行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 蓝色光标 | -3.59 | -16.38亿元 | 文化传妙 | | 北方稀土 | -8.72 | -13.21亿元 | 小金属 | | 紫金矿业 | -8.33 | -12.56亿元 | 有色金属 | | 铜 ...

2026年1月30日，中国铝业（sh601600）触及跌停，跌停价14.13元，涨幅-9.94%，总市值2425.81亿元， 流通市值1862.71亿元，截止发稿，总成交额59.24亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 根据喜娜AI异动分析，中国铝业跌停原因可能如下，关联交易+海外整合+资金压力： 1、公司自身经营 问题：中国铝业年关联交易额超500亿元，占比较高引发独立性担忧，这可能使投资者对公司的经营自 主性和财务透明度产生疑虑。同时，巴西并购面临政策、文化差异等管理挑战，溢价率达21.15%，海 外整合风险较大。此外，巴西收购和云铝股权收购集中消耗现金流，给公司带来资金压力。 2、行业环 境影响：铝行业周期性特征明显，铝价波动风险一直存在，部分子公司存货跌价准备计提，这可能影响 公司的利润表现，对股价产生一定的压制。 3、概念题材与市场热点：中国铝业涉及铝行业相关概念， 近期市场对于铝行业的关注度和热点情况会影响其股价。若同概念相关板块整体表现不佳，也会带动中 国铝业股价下跌。 4、资金流向与技术面：从资金流向来看，可能在1月30日有大量资金流出中国铝 业，导致股价承压。技术面上，可能出现MACD死叉、BOLL通 ...

【导读】中国铝业与力拓拟斥资62.86亿元人民币，联合收购巴西铝业68.596%股权 中国基金报记者 卢鸰 中国铝业1月30日早间公告，拟与国际矿业巨头力拓斥资62.86亿元人民币，联合收购巴西铝业68.596% 股权。 1月29日，中国铝业股价大涨7.53%，最新市值为2604亿元。 巴西历史最悠久的铝业企业之一 作为巴西历史最悠久的铝业企业之一，巴西铝业具有良好的资源自给、稳定的自备绿电和深厚的品牌积 淀等核心优势，并于1941年依据巴西法律设立于巴西圣保罗州，于2021年在巴西证券期货交易所 （B3）上市（股票代码：CBAV3），目前总股本约6.51亿股。 巴西铝业拥有涵盖铝土矿、氧化铝、电解铝、铝加工、再生铝及电力供应的完整铝产业链，产品广泛应 用于包装、汽车等行业，瞄准巴西市场，辐射国际市场。 拟联合收购巴西铝业68.596%股权 中国铝业1月30日早间公告，公司全资子公司中铝香港拟通过附属公司与力拓共同出资在巴西设立合资 公司，其中，中铝香港之附属公司拟持有合资公司67%的股权，力拓拟持有合资公司33%的股权。合资 公司将作为公司的附属公司纳入公司合并报表范围。截至公告披露日，中铝香港与力拓尚未就 ...

立中集团：子公司获铝合金车轮项目定点 预计项目周期内销售金额约13.7亿元 英联股份：子公司江苏英联与LG化学签署联合实验室（核心股）战略协议 加速布局全球锂电创新材料 市场 【重要事项】 兆易创新：拟使用5亿元A股募集资金向全资子公司及全资孙公司增资 以实施DRAM募投项目 泽璟制药：注射用ZG005与含铂化疗联用获得药物临床试验批准通知书 【业绩】 兆易创新：2025年净利同比预增46%左右 福田汽车：2025年净利同比预增1551%左右 北摩高科：2025年净利润同比预增1076%-1262% 崇达技术：子公司普诺威拟投资10亿元建设端侧功能性IC封装载板项目 东鹏饮料：拟投资11亿元在成都设立生产基地 华菱钢铁（核心股）：子公司华菱涟钢投资4.5亿元实施焦化厂6m焦炉原地大修项目 中国铝业：公司及力拓拟通过合资公司收购巴西铝业68.596%股权，代价约合人民币62.86亿元；合资公 司中公司附属公司持股67%，收购完成后目标公司将成为公司附属公司 复星医药（核心股）：控股子公司药品重酒石酸去甲肾上腺素注射液获注册批准 新诺威：控股子公司巨石生物及关联方与阿斯利康签署战略合作与授权协议，涉及创新多肽分子 ...

力拓：与中国铝业的交易充分利用了双方深厚的互补性专业知识。 ...

中国铝业（601600）(02600)发布公告，2026年1月30日(北京时间)，公司、力拓与沃特兰亭订立股份购 买协议，据此，公司及力拓拟通过合资公司以现金方式收购沃特兰亭持有的巴西铝业4.47亿股普通股 (占其已发行股份总数的68.596%)，代价约为46.89亿雷亚尔(约合人民币62.86亿元)。合资公司拟由公司 的附属公司中铝香港通过其附属公司与力拓共同出资在巴西设立，中铝香港的附属公司与力拓拟分别持 有合资公司67%及33%的股权。本次收购完成后，合资公司及目标公司均将成为公司的附属公司，其财 务业绩均将合并到公司账目中。 鉴于目标公司股份在巴西证券期货交易所(B3)上市交易，且受巴西法律和巴西证券交易委员会法规的管 辖，本次收购完成后，合资公司将根据巴西相关法律法规，对目标公司剩余全部流通股发起强制要约收 购。合资公司拟在发起强制要约收购的同时发起退市要约，但也可能会在前述控股权收购完成后重新评 估有关发起退市要约的计划。 ...

前述收购的基础交易价款约46.89亿雷亚尔，约合人民币62.86亿元(其中，公司需支付约31.42亿雷亚 尔，约合人民币42.11亿元)。前述收购完成后，合资公司还将根据巴西法律及证券监管规定对巴西铝业 剩余全部流通股发起强制要约收购。合资公司拟在发起强制要约收购的同时发起退市要约，但也可能会 在前述控股权收购完成后重新评估有关发起退市要约的计划。 巴西铝业目前拥有3座在产铝土矿山，年铝土矿产量约200万吨，氧化铝产能80万吨/年，电解铝产能43 万吨/年，下游加工产能21.5万吨/年，原铝产量占比超过巴西市场三分之一。此外，巴西铝业还控股或 参股21座水电站和4个风电站，权益装机规模1.6吉瓦，年权益发电量约70亿度，全部为可再生能源，且 均为铝产业自备电。巴西铝业氧化铝厂采用生物质锅炉生产蒸汽；铝产品的再生铝占比约20%；吨铝碳 排放处于全球领先水平。 中国铝业（601600）(601600.SH)发布公告，公司全资子公司中国铝业香港有限公司拟通过附属公司与 Rio Tinto International Holdings Limited(力拓国际控股有限公司，以下简称"力拓")在巴西共同设立合资 公司， ...

本次公司主导收购巴西铝业契合公司优化全球产业布局的发展方向，具有重要意义，将充分发挥公司在 铝行业领先技术、精益管理、全产业链资产运营上的优势，发挥力拓在可持续发展、国际化经营等方面 的优势，在巴西打造新的铝产业基地。同时，公司可发挥巴西铝业独特的绿色低碳优势、绿色能源低成 本竞争优势，有利于公司开拓境外资产新格局，提升公司ESG治理水平，推动公司进一步融入全球市 场，增强公司全球产业链配置和整合能力，提升公司国际化经营水平，并进一步增强资本市场对公司的 信心，对公司实现高质量可持续发展具有重要意义。 前述收购的基础交易价款约46.89亿雷亚尔，约合人民币62.86亿元(其中，公司需支付约31.42亿雷亚 尔，约合人民币42.11亿元)。前述收购完成后，合资公司还将根据巴西法律及证券监管规定对巴西铝业 剩余全部流通股发起强制要约收购。合资公司拟在发起强制要约收购的同时发起退市要约，但也可能会 在前述控股权收购完成后重新评估有关发起退市要约的计划。 巴西铝业目前拥有3座在产铝土矿山，年铝土矿产量约200万吨，氧化铝产能 80万吨/年，电解铝产能43 万吨/年，下游加工产能21.5万吨/年，原铝产量占比超过巴西市 ...