重估保险配置价值——保险行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250709 摘要 2024 年上半年保险行业实现超额收益，尽管新单增速放缓，但新业务 价值增长显著，表明行业整体盈利能力依然强劲。 短期内，保险行业的收益主要来源于估值提升，长期来看，内涵价值贡 献更大。当前 A 股和港股的估值反映出相对悲观的投资收益率假设，估 值百分位处于历史较低水平。 利差损风险较低，新单负债成本持续下降及费用改善，即使长期利率下 行，对上市头部险企的影响也有限，存量负债成本可控。 存量业务的合理估值水平可通过有效业务价值进行评估，该指标具有明 确的敏感性计算，且数值相对保守，能更准确反映企业价值。 基本面不会拖累当前保险行业的估值，报行合一趋势有利于头部公司提 升产品和服务竞争力，政策鼓励头部公司做大做强，储蓄型产品投资收 益是大公司优势。 头部公司在信用背书、渠道及竞争能力方面优势明显，市场份额有望显 著改善，进一步巩固其行业地位。 当前保险板块具备估值修复空间，负债端展望稳定。配置策略上，可选 择弹性较强的新华保险或港股标的，以及具备红利属性的中国平安和中 国太保。 Q&A 如何评价 2025 年上半年保险行业的表现？ ...

2024年年度分红派息实施公告 证券代码：601601 证券简称：中国太保 公告编号：2025-035 中国太平洋保险（集团）股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利人民币 1.08元（含税） 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/17 | － | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/18 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经本公司2025 年 6 月 11 日的2024年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 1. 发放年度：2024年度 2. 分派对象： 截至股权登记日 2025 年 7 月 17 日 15:00 上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券 登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在 册的本公司全体 A 股股东。 本公司 H ...

Group 1 - The company celebrates the 104th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China by conducting various党建主题活动 to inspire党员干部 and insurance practitioners to uphold their mission and advance the red gene [1][2] - The company emphasizes the importance of integrating party work with business operations, conducting training sessions to enhance the theoretical and management capabilities of its leaders [2][27] - The company organizes activities to promote red education, encouraging党员干部 to visit revolutionary memorials and engage in immersive learning experiences [9][11][12] Group 2 - The company integrates red culture with artistic activities, fostering patriotism through performances and collective singing of revolutionary songs [14][18] - The company promotes joint learning and community building, collaborating with local party branches to enhance community engagement and support rural development [20][22][23] - The company initiates volunteer actions during the "7.8 National Insurance Publicity Day," focusing on financial knowledge dissemination and fraud prevention [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent notification from the National Financial Supervision Administration marks the formal implementation of "reporting and operation in unison" for non-auto insurance, aiming to enhance underwriting profitability by transitioning the industry focus from "scale competition" to "value cultivation" [2][14] - Non-auto insurance has seen significant growth, with its share of total property insurance premiums rising from 37.1% in 2019 to an estimated 47.4% in 2024, contributing nearly half of the total property insurance premium scale [2][14] - The notification aims to address issues such as high commission fees, distorted expense structures, and the accumulation of premium receivable risks, particularly in government insurance due to delayed fiscal payments [2][3][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The notification clarifies the definition of non-auto insurance, excluding auto, agricultural, export credit, short-term health, and accident insurance, and aims to standardize the industry and optimize long-term underwriting profitability [3][11] Regulatory Measures - The notification introduces a comprehensive regulatory framework for non-auto insurance, requiring strict adherence to approved terms and rates, and prohibits any disguised adjustments to fees [11][13] - Key measures include the establishment of a rate adjustment mechanism, management responsibilities for insurance intermediaries, and a "fee upon issuance" policy to mitigate premium receivable risks [13][14] Future Outlook - The anticipated transparency in commission rates and cost reductions are expected to directly benefit underwriting profit margins, with leading property insurance companies like China Property Insurance, China Ping An, and China Taiping likely to see significant improvements in their combined operating ratios (COR) [2][14]

Group 1 - Ant Group and China Pacific Insurance signed a strategic cooperation agreement to innovate services using Alipay's commercial insurance code, aiming to enhance the multi-tiered medical security system [1] - New products such as "Tai Xiang Bao·免健告医疗险" were launched, allowing users to experience direct compensation without upfront payments or complicated claims processes [1] - The aging population and increasing chronic diseases in China create a pressing need for innovative commercial insurance to fill gaps between basic medical insurance and traditional commercial insurance [1] Group 2 - The national push for orderly integration of commercial health insurance with basic medical insurance is accelerating, exemplified by the launch of the "医保+商保" clearing settlement center [2] - Over 1.2 billion users have activated the national medical insurance code, with over 700 million using it through Alipay, making it the largest third-party service platform for the National Medical Insurance Bureau [2] - The insurance industry is expected to leverage a one-stop platform to provide comprehensive health coverage through various resources, including government-supported health insurance and commercial health insurance [3]

Core Insights - Ant Group and China Pacific Insurance signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance health management services and innovate product technology, aiming to build a multi-tiered medical security system [1] - The launch of new products like "Tai Xiang Bao·No Health Declaration Medical Insurance" will provide users with a seamless experience for direct claims through Alipay's commercial insurance code [1] - The integration of health insurance services with Alipay aims to simplify the claims process, making it as easy as using the medical insurance code for payments [1][2] Group 1 - Ant Group and China Pacific Insurance will create a "Commercial Insurance Code·Pacific Insurance Service Zone" to offer innovative health management services [1] - The new products will expand the insured population and treatment options, enhancing the value and convenience of supplementary medical insurance [1] - Ant Group plans to explore innovative applications of medical insurance in various scenarios, collaborating with government and insurance partners to improve user experience [1] Group 2 - The "Medical Insurance + Commercial Insurance" clearing and settlement center, supported by Ant Group, was launched nationwide, with a pilot at Peking Union Medical College Hospital [2] - This initiative allows users to first use the medical insurance code for basic reimbursement and then the commercial insurance code for remaining payments, streamlining the payment process [2]

Group 1 - Ant Group has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Pacific Insurance [1] - The new product "Tai Xiang Bao·Exempt Health Declaration Medical Insurance" was launched in collaboration with Ant Medical Health [1] - Users will benefit from direct compensation through Alipay's commercial insurance code, eliminating the need for upfront payments and material submissions [1] Group 2 - Ant Medical Health platform will provide a comprehensive range of health management services, including online consultations, online medication purchases, chronic disease management, and outpatient appointment assistance [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (601601) reported significant insurance claims in the first half of the year, indicating a robust operational performance in the life insurance sector [1] Claims Summary - The total number of commercial insurance claims reached 1.947 million, with a total payout amounting to 9.92 billion [1] - Critical illness claims accounted for 77,000 cases, totaling 5.23 billion [1] - Medical claims were 1.827 million, with payouts of 2.74 billion [1] - Death and disability claims stood at 43,000, amounting to 1.95 billion [1] Operational Efficiency - The company utilized intelligent decision-making processes, achieving an average claim review time of 8.06 seconds [1] - Nearly 3,000 clients benefited from critical illness green channel services and advance payment for claims [1] - The company enhanced elderly services, providing home visits to nearly 2,000 individuals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Blockchain technology is recognized as a disruptive foundational technology and is included in China's "14th Five-Year Plan" as one of the seven key industries in the digital economy, with encouragement from financial regulatory authorities for its application in the banking and insurance sectors [1] Blockchain Application in Insurance - The application of blockchain in the insurance industry is still limited compared to the banking sector, with various innovative use cases emerging since 2016, including AXA's flight delay insurance and China People's Insurance Company's agricultural insurance platform [5][6][7] Classification of Blockchain Applications - Blockchain applications can be categorized into three main types: 1. **Evidence and Traceability**: This includes judicial evidence storage and product traceability, ensuring the authenticity and integrity of information [3] 2. **Multi-party Collaboration**: This type facilitates efficient collaboration among different organizations, reducing trust costs and enhancing operational efficiency [4] 3. **Value Sharing**: This application fosters innovation and creates new business models by lowering mutual trust costs among participants [4] China Pacific Insurance's Blockchain Strategy - China Pacific Insurance aims to leverage blockchain for digital transformation, focusing on alliance chains and prioritizing scenarios like evidence storage and data collaboration [8][9] - The company plans to build a blockchain platform, "Taibao Chain," with core functionalities including evidence storage, data collaboration, and privacy computing [9] Innovative Use Cases by China Pacific Insurance - China Pacific Insurance has initiated several innovative applications based on the Taibao Chain, including: 1. **Smart Claims in Medical Insurance**: This application enhances the claims process by enabling proactive service and improving customer experience [9][10] 2. **Digital Safe Services**: This service allows secure storage of digital documents, with over 65,000 documents stored by the end of 2024 [10] 3. **Agricultural Insurance Service Chain**: This initiative aims to trace high-quality agricultural products throughout the supply chain [10] Future Outlook for Blockchain in Insurance - The insurance industry is expected to utilize blockchain to enhance data flow and collaboration, both within the industry and across sectors, improving operational efficiency and service quality [11][12] - The development of Web3 technologies presents new opportunities for the insurance sector, including risk management for decentralized infrastructure and insurance for real-world assets [12][13][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance, indicating a positive outlook based on strong growth in bancassurance and low sensitivity of net asset return [5][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that China Pacific Insurance's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.1% year-on-year to 9.63 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with net assets declining by 9.5% to 263.6 billion yuan, reflecting a mixed performance [5][6]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to two main factors: a decrease in insurance service performance and a slight drop in total investment return [6]. - The report anticipates that the decline in net assets will narrow within the year due to the alignment of interest rates on government bonds [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, insurance service income decreased by 10.6% to 8.79 billion yuan, while investment performance dropped by 13.2% to 4.69 billion yuan [6]. - The total investment asset scale grew by 21.5% year-on-year to 2.73 trillion yuan, with a comprehensive investment return rate increasing by 3.3 percentage points to 6% [8]. Life Insurance Segment - The bancassurance channel has seen rapid growth, with new business value from this channel increasing from 3.34 billion yuan in 2022 to 10.87 billion yuan in 2024, contributing 25.2% to the total new business value [7]. - The individual insurance channel has faced challenges, with the average number of agents declining significantly from 525,000 in 2021 to 184,000 in 2024 [7]. Investment Strategy - The report notes a high proportion of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) assets, which increased by 4.2 percentage points to 64% in 2024, indicating a diversified investment strategy [8][23]. - The duration of fixed-income assets has been extended to 11.4 years, significantly reducing the sensitivity of net assets to interest rate changes [8][27]. Dividend Policy - The dividend policy has been clarified to consider operational profit growth and stable investment contributions, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [9]. - The core solvency ratio improved by 10 percentage points to 140% in Q1 2025, supported by an increase in core secondary capital [9][28]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 42.8 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -4.8% [10][11]. - The estimated intrinsic value per share is expected to rise from 64.87 yuan in 2025 to 80.00 yuan by 2027, with corresponding P/EV ratios decreasing over the forecast period [11].