| 公司名称 | 持股数量 | 最新持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | | 昊天国际建投(01341) | 79.97亿股 | 72.06% | | 中国电信(00728) | 99.05亿股 | 71.36% | | 南方恆生科技(03033) | 107.14亿股 | 70.17% | | 绿色动力环保(01330) | 2.79亿股 | 68.91% | | 天津创业环保股份(01065) | 2.29亿股 | 67.21% | | 凯盛新能(01108) | 1.67亿股 | 66.60% | | 中国神华(01088) | 22.39亿股 | 66.28% | | 钧达股份(02865) | 0.53亿股 | 64.82% | | 中远海能(01138) | 8.35亿股 | 64.45% | | 广汽集团(02238) | 17.73亿股 | 62.99% | | 大眾公用(01635) | 3.32亿股 | 62.28% | | 昭衍新药(06127) | 0.74亿股 | 62.16% | | 弘业期货(03678) | 1.50亿股 | 60.21% | | 中州证券(01 ...

[Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 26年险资配置调查结果出炉，增配权益而久期策略不变 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]刘淇 SAC 执证号：S0260520060001 0755-82564292 liuqi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 唐关勇 SAC 执证号：S0260525070004 021-38003812 tangguanyong@gf.com.cn 请注意，刘淇,唐关勇并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 24% 10/24 01/25 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 保险Ⅱ行业 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2月25日,盈富基金（02800）、腾讯控股（00700）、阿里巴巴-W（09988）南向资 金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入37.00 亿、22.38 亿、22.05 亿 中国太保（02601）、长飞光纤光缆（06869）、中国黄金国际（02099）南向资金净流出金额位列市场 前三，分别净流出-2.65 亿、-1.68 亿、-1.56 亿 | 保诚(02378) | 193.17% | 1527.04 万 | 118.300（+0.25%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MONGOL MINING(00975) | 165.43% | 1.07 亿 | 13.000（+2.44%） | | 赢家时尚(03709) | 139.51% | 365.14 万 | 6.820（-1.73%） | | 中国食品(00506) | 123.25% | 1478.28 万 | 4.240（+0.24%） | | 佰泽医疗(02609) | 115.78% | 661.72 万 | 3.360（-0.30%） | | 华润饮料(02460) | 102.24% | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) based on the recovery of new business growth, reduced interest rate sensitivity, and prudent actuarial assumptions [5][30]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the valuation of Chinese insurance companies is expected to improve, drawing comparisons with AIA Group's strong performance since its listing. AIA's embedded value (PEV) multiple was approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating high growth potential and lower sensitivity to interest rates, which could benefit the valuation of Chinese insurers [5][6]. - The new business value (NBV) of Chinese life insurance companies is recovering rapidly, driven by improved distribution channels and product offerings, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [5][13]. - Effective asset-liability duration management and the transformation towards participating insurance have reduced the sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates, which is favorable for valuation [15][17]. - Prudent adjustments to actuarial assumptions have brought Chinese insurers' assumptions closer to those of AIA, enhancing the credibility of their valuations [22][30]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AIA's Performance and Valuation - AIA has shown strong stock performance since its listing, with a PEV multiple of approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating a favorable outlook for valuation improvements in Chinese insurers [5][6]. Section 2: Recovery of New Business and Growth Indicators - Chinese life insurance companies are experiencing a rapid recovery in new business growth, with NBV for AIA increasing by 18% year-on-year to USD 4.314 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. The NBV for 2024 was approximately 113% of the 2019 figure, indicating strong growth potential [8][13]. - Major Chinese insurers are expected to see NBV growth of 30%-80% in 2025, with positive growth in CSM for China Life and Ping An in the first half of 2025 [13][18]. Section 3: Interest Rate Sensitivity and Actuarial Assumptions - The sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates has decreased due to effective duration management and a successful shift towards participating insurance. For instance, AIA's NBV only decreased by 1.9% with a 50 basis point drop in interest rates [15][17]. - Chinese insurers have made prudent adjustments to their actuarial assumptions, aligning them more closely with AIA's, which enhances the reliability of their valuations. For example, China Life's investment return assumption has been adjusted to 4% from 5% [22][30].

| 公司名称 | 持股数量 | 最新持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | | 昊天国际建投(01341) | 79.88亿股 | 71.99% | | 中国电信(00728) | 99.03亿股 | 71.35% | | 南方恆生科技(03033) | 104.06亿股 | 69.01% | | 绿色动力环保(01330) | 2.79亿股 | 68.95% | | 天津创业环保股份(01065) | 2.29亿股 | 67.22% | | 凯盛新能(01108) | 1.67亿股 | 66.84% | | 中国神华(01088) | 22.40亿股 | 66.31% | | 钧达股份(02865) | 0.53亿股 | 64.80% | | 中远海能(01138) | 8.33亿股 | 64.30% | | 广汽集团(02238) | 17.75亿股 | 63.07% | | 大眾公用(01635) | 3.33亿股 | 62.43% | | 昭衍新药(06127) | 0.74亿股 | 62.32% | | 弘业期货(03678) | 1.51亿股 | 60.38% | | 中州证券(01 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2月24日,盈富基金（02800）、腾讯控股（00700）、阿里巴巴-W（09988）南向资 金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入36.79 亿、22.23 亿、21.94 亿 | 股票名称 | 净流出(元)↓ | 净流出比 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国太保(02601) | -2.65 亿 | -39.19% | 36.640（-4.53%） | | 长飞光纤光缆(06869) | -1.74 亿 | -4.65% | 129.200（+1.17%） | | 中金公司(03908) | -1.56 亿 | -53.15% | 21.020（-4.89%） | | 中国黄金国际(02099) | -1.49 亿 | -40.09% | 199.900（-1.14%） | | 中国宏桥(01378) | -1.41 亿 | -14.09% | 36.020（-3.43%） | | 中国太平(00966) | -1.16 亿 | -47.44% | 23.660（-4.44%） | | 紫金矿业(02899) | -1.16 亿 | -5.07% ...

新华财经北京2月24日电（张保贺）1月，节日气氛带动下，全球橙汁产销增量迹象明显，进而带动鲜橙整体市场价小幅回暖。 其中，各主流市场进出口贸易差异，成为影响鲜橙市场价涨跌的关键因素。出口预期上调的美国鲜橙市场价偏强运行；受低价 埃及橙冲击的欧盟鲜橙市场价震荡走弱；传统中国春节带动消费增量且我国鲜橙市场价短暂回升。新华指数研究院农业市场研 究中心预测，消费增量预期或将带动全球冷冻浓缩橙汁期货结算价继续回升，本土鲜橙供给差异或将导致全球鲜橙三大消费市 场行情走势分化。 美国：鲜橙供给趋紧且市场价上调，产销增量的橙汁期货跃升 2026年1月30日，美国农业部外国农业服务局（USDA-FAS）最新报告显示，2025/2026年度美国橙汁消费量将增加至44.00万吨 （65白利度浓缩汁计量，下同），较上一年度上涨6.80%，仍处于近五年偏低水平；同期美国鲜橙出口量将达到33.00万吨，较 上一年度上浮0.92%。在橙汁消费增量且鲜橙出口增量等预期带动下，短期内美国对鲜橙进口缩量等使得美国鲜橙市场供应相 对趋紧且市场价窄幅走强。美国农业部农业统计局（USDA-NASS）数据显示，12月美国鲜食甜橙零售价环比上涨4.46% ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong insurance stocks experienced a widespread decline, with significant drops in share prices [1] - Xinhua Insurance (01336.HK) fell by 6.03%, trading at 56.85 HKD [1] - China Life (02628.HK) decreased by 5.61%, with a current price of 32.66 HKD [1] - China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) saw a decline of 4.12%, now priced at 36.8 HKD [1] - China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK) dropped by 1.71%, currently at 16.64 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is experiencing a significant decline, with major companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance all reporting notable drops in stock prices. Analysts predict that the fourth quarter of 2025 will see pressure on net profit growth for listed insurance companies due to a temporary adjustment in growth sectors [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinhua Insurance's stock fell by 6.03%, trading at 56.85 HKD [1] - China Life's stock decreased by 5.61%, reaching 32.66 HKD [1] - China Pacific Insurance's stock dropped by 4.12%, priced at 36.8 HKD [1] - China Property & Casualty Insurance's stock declined by 1.71%, at 16.64 HKD [1] Group 2: Profit Forecasts - Dongwu Securities forecasts that the net profit growth for listed insurance companies in Q4 will face slight pressure, primarily due to a temporary adjustment in growth sectors [1] - The report indicates that since 2025, insurance companies have maintained a high equity holding ratio, with the A-share market, ChiNext, and STAR Market indices showing changes of +1.0%, -1.1%, and -10.1% respectively [1] - The decline in stock prices will directly impact the current profit and loss due to the holdings being recorded under FVTPL [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that the capital market's fluctuations in Q4 2025, combined with some insurance companies significantly increasing their secondary market equity allocation in the second half of 2025, will lead to a temporary pressure on profits [1] - The firm projects that the net profit for A-share listed insurance companies will grow by 22.7% year-on-year to 426.4 billion CNY, although this represents a 10.9 percentage point decline compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is experiencing a significant decline, with major companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance all reporting notable drops in stock prices. This downturn is attributed to anticipated pressure on net profit growth for listed insurance companies in Q4 2025 due to a temporary adjustment in growth segments [1][1][1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinhua Insurance's stock fell by 6.03%, trading at 56.85 HKD [1] - China Life's stock decreased by 5.61%, reaching 32.66 HKD [1] - China Pacific Insurance's stock dropped by 4.12%, priced at 36.8 HKD [1] - China Property & Casualty Insurance's stock declined by 1.71%, at 16.64 HKD [1] Group 2: Profit Growth Expectations - Dongwu Securities forecasts slight pressure on the net profit growth rate for listed insurance companies in Q4, primarily due to a phase adjustment in growth segments [1] - The report indicates that since 2025, insurance companies have maintained a high equity holding ratio, with the performance of major indices showing mixed results: +1.0% for the CSI All A, -1.1% for the ChiNext Index, and -10.1% for the Sci-Tech 50 Index [1] - The anticipated profit growth for A-share listed insurance companies in 2025 is projected at 22.7%, totaling 426.4 billion CNY, with a sequential decline of 10.9 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1]