证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20250818-20250822） 推荐（维持） 预定利率拟调整，寿险销售呈分化趋势 本周行情复盘：保险指数上涨 1.4%，跑输大盘 2.78pct。保险个股表现分化， 众安+6.88%，阳光+5.66%，太保+2.72%，人保+2.56%，国寿+1.37%，平安 +1.17%，财险+0.71%，新华+0.36%，太平-0.48%，友邦-2.8%。10 年期国债收 益率 1.78%，较上周末+4bps。 本周动态： （1）友邦保险发布 2025 年中报。2025H1，公司实现税后营运溢利 36.09 亿美 元，每股+12%；产生的基本自由盈余为 35.69 亿美元，每股+10%。中期股息 每股 49 港仙，同比+10%。 （2）阳光保险发布 2025 年中报。2025H1，公司实现归母净利润 33.89 亿元， 同比+7.8%。 （3）新华、太保、众安依次披露 2025m1-7 原保费收入。 2025m1-7 上市险企保费分析： 太保：1-7 月累计保费 3146 亿元，同比+5.5%，增速环比-0.4pct。1）寿险：累 计保费 1860 亿元，同比+9%，增速环比- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the predetermined interest rates for various insurance products in China, highlighting the implications for the insurance industry and the potential opportunities for dividend insurance products [2][3][4]. Group 1: Event Summary - On July 25, the China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting to assess the predetermined interest rates for life insurance products, concluding that the current research value is 1.99% [2]. - Major insurance companies, including China Life, Ping An Life, and others, announced adjustments to the maximum predetermined interest rates for new insurance products, with ordinary life insurance set at 2.0%, dividend insurance at 1.75%, and universal insurance at a minimum guaranteed rate of 1.0% [2][3]. - The new maximum rates will take effect from August 31, 2025, and applications for insurance products exceeding these rates will no longer be accepted [2]. Group 2: Analysis and Implications - The predetermined interest rate research value has decreased by 14 basis points to 1.99%. This adjustment is based on market interest rate trends and the asset-liability management of the insurance industry [3]. - The maximum rates for traditional, dividend, and universal insurance have been lowered to 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0%, respectively, with the adjustments aimed at aligning with the research value and ensuring a smooth transition for new and existing products [4]. - The reduction in the predetermined interest rate for traditional insurance to 2.0% (the lowest since the 1990s) is expected to create a favorable environment for the growth of dividend insurance products, which previously thrived under higher interest rates [5]. - Regulatory changes have also allowed for an increase in the dividend level cap for large insurance companies, enhancing their competitive edge in the dividend insurance market [5]. - While the adjustments may cause short-term disruptions in new policy sales, they are anticipated to alleviate long-term risks associated with interest rate spreads and improve the overall investment strategy of insurance companies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing a significant shift in premium rates due to changes in predetermined interest rates and product definitions, leading to increased costs for consumers [3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The industry is preparing for new product launches as companies await the latest predetermined interest rate research, with a focus on ensuring seamless transitions between old and new products [3]. - Companies are considering different strategies for setting predetermined interest rates, weighing the competitive implications of adopting either a conservative or aggressive approach [3][4]. - The upcoming changes in predetermined interest rates are expected to lead to price increases for new products, regardless of the specific rate adjustments [3][6]. Group 2: Premium Increases - Historical context shows that premium rates have been rising, particularly after the switch in critical illness definitions in 2021, which has made it difficult to assess the true impact on premiums [7][8]. - The most recent adjustments in August 2023 saw a drop in predetermined interest rates from 3.5% to 3.0%, which had a manageable effect on premiums, but the market still reacted negatively to perceived price increases [8]. - The anticipated changes in September 2023, with potential further reductions in predetermined interest rates, could lead to significant premium hikes, especially for long-term policies like children's insurance, which have seen increases of 30% to 40% in the past [8][9]. Group 3: Consumer Considerations - Consumers are advised to consider purchasing critical illness insurance before reaching certain age thresholds, as premiums are expected to rise with age and declining health [6][9]. - The value of critical illness insurance should be viewed in the context of future health risks, emphasizing the importance of securing coverage while it is still affordable [9][10]. - The narrative around insurance pricing often overlooks the potential for future claims, highlighting the need for consumers to recognize the long-term benefits of investing in insurance [9][24].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is recommended for investment, with current A-share insurance companies at low historical levels and limited downside risk. The investment side is expected to improve gradually due to stabilizing stock markets and recovering interest rates, while the liability side benefits from recovering sales of savings insurance and increased demand for high-end medical insurance [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in investment returns due to stabilizing stock markets and recovering interest rates [1]. - The sales of savings insurance are rebounding, and the demand for high-end medical insurance is being catalyzed by medical reforms, which will enhance the new business value margin (NBVM) and support steady growth in new business value (NBV) [1][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The maximum preset interest rate for life insurance products may be lowered by 50 basis points to 2.0% by the end of August, following regulatory guidelines that require adjustments when preset rates exceed certain thresholds [2]. - The insurance industry is expected to see a reduction in the cost of new policy funds due to the adjustment of preset interest rates, which will alleviate risks associated with interest rate spreads [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is entering a phase of improved premium growth as it approaches a seasonal period of product suspension, with ongoing adjustments in product structure expected to optimize costs further [3]. - The combination of regulatory changes and market dynamics is likely to lead to a significant improvement in the industry's fundamentals, with a continued positive trend anticipated [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index increased by 0.24% this week, outperforming the market by 0.69 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases from ZhongAn (+4.81%) and Xinhua (+3.27%), while some companies like GuoShou (-0.74%) and TaiPing (-1.48%) saw declines [1]. - The report highlights that insurance companies are preparing for a shift in interest rates, particularly focusing on the development of dividend insurance products in response to regulatory changes [2][3]. - The issuance of the "Opinion Letter" regarding dividend insurance is seen as a move to standardize the floating cost levels and enhance the asset-liability matching of insurance companies, which may help mitigate long-term risks associated with interest rate differentials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's performance is characterized by a mixed outcome among individual stocks, with the overall index showing a slight increase [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield remains stable at 1.64%, indicating a low volatility environment for interest rates [1]. Recent Developments - Several insurance companies are actively developing new products to adapt to the changing interest rate environment, focusing on training sales personnel and enhancing channel cooperation [2]. - The regulatory body has issued guidelines to ensure that proposed dividend levels are justified and sustainable, particularly for companies rated 1-3 and those with higher proposed dividend levels [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent low volatility in long-term interest rates may reduce asset reallocation pressures, leading to improved operational quality in the insurance sector [5]. - The expected recovery in performance metrics, alongside a potential improvement in equity investments, indicates a positive outlook for the insurance companies' growth rates [5]. - The report lists the recommended companies in order: China Taiping, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, Xinhua Insurance, and China Life, with respective PEV and PB valuations provided [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [82]. Core Insights - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to enhance the value of new business, with a projected decrease in the rate to 2% in the third quarter, which will lower the rigid cost of liabilities and improve product profitability [8][12]. - The expansion of long-term stock investment trials is anticipated to increase the flexibility of the asset side, with insurance companies actively seeking higher-yield risk assets to mitigate the pressure from interest rate spreads [20][27]. - There is a need for further optimization in asset-liability matching, as mismatches in duration can lead to fluctuations in net assets, particularly under the IFRS 17 standards [42][50]. - The valuation of insurance companies is primarily driven by improvements in the asset side, with the current PEV valuation level at 0.70, indicating that market valuations are below the intrinsic value of the companies [59][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Adjustment of Predetermined Interest Rates - The upper limit for the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance is currently set at 2.5%, with a projected decrease to 2% in the upcoming quarter, which is expected to enhance the new business value [8][12]. - The insurance premium income for life insurance is showing signs of recovery, with a cumulative growth of 1.3% as of April 2025, marking a positive shift in the market [12][14]. 2. Expansion of Long-term Stock Investment Trials - The total scale of long-term stock investment trials has reached 222 billion, with several major insurance companies participating [25]. - The demand for high-yield risk assets is increasing as insurance companies seek to cover the rigid costs associated with liabilities [27][33]. 3. Need for Optimization in Asset-Liability Matching - The mismatch in asset and liability durations is causing volatility in net assets, necessitating better alignment to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [42][50]. - The average net investment yield for listed insurance companies remains around 4%, which poses challenges for long-term asset yield stabilization [50][56]. 4. Valuation Driven by Asset Side Improvements - The contribution of insurance contract services to profits is significant, with new business value expected to enhance overall performance [59][61]. - The current average PB valuation for five A-share insurance companies is 1.6, indicating a moderate valuation level compared to historical data [67][71].

Core Insights - The life insurance premium income has shown signs of recovery in the first four months of 2025, with a total of 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [1][3] - April 2025 saw a significant increase in life insurance premiums, reaching 287.9 billion yuan, which is an 11.6% year-on-year increase, indicating a "small spring" for the industry [1][4] Group 1: Premium Growth Factors - The recovery in life insurance premiums is attributed to the continuous revival of individual insurance channels and strong demand for savings-type insurance products due to declining deposit rates [1][4] - The insurance companies have actively adjusted their product structures to meet market demands, with a focus on the launch of dividend and annuity products in April [4][5] Group 2: Future Outlook - The adjustment of preset interest rates is expected to be the biggest variable affecting premium growth in the coming quarters [5][6] - The current low deposit rates provide a relative advantage for insurance products, making them attractive for consumers seeking long-term stable returns [5][6] - It is anticipated that life insurance premiums will maintain steady growth, but the growth rate may be limited due to the downward adjustment of preset interest rates [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the performance of A-share insurance companies in Q1 2025 was impacted by rising long-term interest rates and market volatility, leading to a decline in total investment returns and a mixed profit performance across the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Performance - A-share insurance companies achieved a total net profit of 841.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, which was below expectations of 7.9% [2]. - The contribution to profit from insurance services, investment performance, and other pre-tax profits was 75.5%, 16.7%, and 7.8% respectively [2]. - Total investment returns decreased by 11% year-on-year due to significant negative contributions from fair value changes amid stock and bond market pressures [1][2]. Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) Performance - The NBV growth rate for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 ranged from 4.8% to 67.9%, continuing a growth trend [3]. - New business volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 246.84 billion yuan, with growth rates for individual companies varying between -19.5% and 130.8% [3]. - Factors affecting performance included adjustments in preset interest rates, product structures, commission rates, and the fluctuating focus on financial products [3]. Group 3: Property Insurance Performance - The premium growth rate for the "old three" major property insurers was between 1.0% and 7.6% in Q1 2025, with the combined ratio (CR3) decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 63.8% [4]. - The combined operating ratio (COR) improved more than expected, with notable reductions for major insurers such as PICC and Ping An [4]. Group 4: Investment Yield and Asset Allocation - The annualized total investment yield for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 varied, with New China Insurance at 5.7% (up 1.1 percentage points) and China Life at 2.75% (down 0.48 percentage points) [5]. - The proportion of FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income) assets increased for most insurers, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation amid market conditions [5]. Group 5: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks including New China Insurance (601336.SH), PICC (601319.SH), China Property Insurance (02328), China Taiping (601601.SH), Ping An (601318.SH), and China Life (601628.SH) as potential investment opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance industry, recommending companies such as New China Life, China Life Insurance, China Property & Casualty, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Reinsurance [4][64]. Core Insights - The insurance sector experienced a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with net profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year, falling short of expectations [4][6]. - The new business value (NBV) showed significant growth, with a range of 4.8% to 67.9% across listed insurers, indicating a continuation of growth trends [4][24]. - The investment performance was under pressure due to rising long-term interest rates and market volatility, leading to a year-on-year decline in total investment income of 11% [4][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Performance - The net profit of listed insurers reached CNY 841.76 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, which was below the expected 7.9% [6][14]. - Investment income for the sector decreased by 11% year-on-year, totaling CNY 1,477.19 billion, with significant contributions from China Re and China Property & Casualty [14][62]. 2. Liability Side Performance - The NBV growth was robust, with new business premiums increasing by 2.9% year-on-year to CNY 2,468.44 billion, driven by various factors including product structure adjustments and commission changes [4][24]. - The insurance service performance improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% to CNY 802.49 billion, attributed to better claims performance and optimized service costs [4][11]. 3. Asset Side Performance - The yield rates varied among insurers, with New China Life achieving a total investment yield of 5.7% (up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year) [4][62]. - The proportion of FVOCI assets increased for most insurers, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation amidst market volatility [4][59]. 4. Investment Analysis - The report anticipates that the impact of rising long-term interest rates on profit performance will ease in Q2 2025, with expectations for marginal improvements in new business growth [4][64]. - The report highlights the potential for further policy support for leading insurers in diversifying asset allocations under the new regulatory framework [4][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The securities industry has seen significant profit growth, with a notable increase in trading volume and net profits for listed brokers in 2024 and Q1 2025 [4][15] - The insurance sector is experiencing a continuous increase in new business value (NBV) and a recovery in life insurance premiums as of March [4][29] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable phase, with trust assets showing growth but overall profits under pressure [4] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Industries - All sub-industries in the non-bank financial sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index in the recent three trading days, with declines of 0.73% for securities, 1.06% for multi-financial, and 1.68% for insurance [9][10] 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Industry Insights 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with April's average daily trading amount reaching 12,361 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase [15] - Listed brokers reported a 7% increase in operating revenue and a 16% increase in net profit for 2024 [20] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue for listed brokers grew by 24% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 80% [25] 2.2 Insurance - The insurance sector's net profit for Q1 2025 showed a 1.4% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in NBV for major companies [29] - Life insurance premiums showed signs of recovery, with a 0.2% year-on-year increase in original premiums for the first three months of 2025 [4] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry reported a total asset scale of 27 trillion yuan as of Q2 2024, a 24.5% year-on-year increase, although profits are under pressure [4] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 734 million contracts in March, with a 17.28% year-on-year increase [4] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The non-bank financial sector is currently valued at a low average, providing a safety margin [4] - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a focus on health and pension insurance [4] - Recommended companies include China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China People’s Insurance, and leading securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4][28]