该行认为，公司中间体原料药具有龙头地位、竞争格局稳定，短期受需求减弱而承压；又认为行业竞争 格局稳固，联邦为青霉素绝对龙头，随着需求趋稳，有望企稳回升。该行预计公司2025至2027年分别实 现收入133.5亿、127.7亿、139.3亿元，实现归母净利润分别为25.9亿、23.4亿、25.2亿元。 招商证券发表研究报告指，首予联邦制药"强烈推荐"评级，认为公司主业抗生素有望逐步企稳，胰岛 素、动保持续开拓增长新曲线，创新加速发展，成长空间广阔。创新药方面，公司三靶点GLP-1激动剂 UBT251海外权益成功授权诺和诺德，有望持续贡献催化，后续减重管线中长效PYY类似物、口服GLP- 1小分子早期数据优异，有出海潜力，建议关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for insulin in China is rapidly increasing due to the large diabetic patient population, with Aspart insulin being a key product that effectively controls postprandial hyperglycemia and is now more accessible due to its inclusion in the medical insurance catalog [1][7]. Market Overview - Aspart insulin is a commonly used rapid-acting insulin analog, primarily for controlling blood sugar in type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients, with effects starting within 10-20 minutes and lasting about 4-6 hours [2][3]. - The market size for Aspart insulin in China is projected to reach 8.451 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.33% and accounting for 31.1% of the overall insulin market [1][7]. Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to regulate the insulin industry, ensuring quality and safety while promoting healthy and high-quality development [3]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the Aspart insulin industry includes animal-derived insulin raw materials, intermediates, active pharmaceutical ingredients, packaging materials, and pharmaceutical equipment. The midstream consists of Aspart insulin production companies, while the downstream includes medical institutions, pharmacies, e-commerce channels, and end consumers [4][5]. Patient Demographics - The prevalence of diabetes in China is on the rise, with an estimated 148 million diabetic patients by 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.89%, which drives the demand for Aspart insulin [6]. Competitive Landscape - The centralized procurement policy has reshaped the competitive landscape of the insulin market, leading to price reductions but also providing more market opportunities for selected companies. As of April 2024, six companies were selected for Aspart insulin in the national procurement process, indicating a trend towards increased market share for domestic products [8][9]. Company Profiles - **Ganli Pharmaceutical**: Engaged in the research, production, and sales of insulin analogs, with a projected revenue of 3.045 billion yuan and a gross profit of 2.279 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a gross margin of 74.83% [10]. - **Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical**: Focused on drug research and production, with a projected revenue of 2.01 billion yuan and a gross profit of 1.485 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a gross margin of 73.90% [11]. Future Development Trends - The inclusion of Aspart insulin in the medical insurance catalog will continue to impact its market sales, with ongoing adjustments in reimbursement policies and centralized procurement driving companies to optimize pricing strategies and enhance product accessibility in grassroots medical markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts that United Pharmaceuticals (03933) will achieve revenues of 13.35 billion, 12.77 billion, and 13.93 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.59 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 12, and 11 times, respectively. The company is given a "strong buy" rating due to its stable antibiotic business, growth in insulin and animal health sectors, and accelerated innovation development [1]. Group 1: Innovation and Development - United Pharmaceuticals has developed a comprehensive pharmaceutical group with four major business segments: formulations, raw materials, biotechnology, and animal health, supported by nine production and R&D entities. The company is in the third phase of innovation and upgrade development, with a stable outlook for its antibiotic business and new growth curves in insulin and animal health [2]. - The collaboration with Novo Nordisk on UBT251, valued at up to 2 billion USD, is expected to continuously contribute to the company's growth. UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-agonist, shows superior weight loss efficiency, with a 16.6% average weight reduction at the highest dose after 12 weeks in clinical trials [2]. - The company has a robust pipeline in autoimmune, metabolic, ophthalmology, and anti-infection fields, with UBT37034 (NPY2RA) and UBT48128 (oral GLP-1 small molecule) showing promising potential for future growth [2]. Group 2: Main Business Performance - The intermediate raw materials segment maintains a leading position with a stable competitive landscape, although it is currently under pressure due to weakened demand. The company is the absolute leader in penicillin, and demand stabilization is expected to lead to a recovery [3]. - The impact of centralized procurement on traditional formulations and insulin has been cleared, with insulin exports showing a positive growth trend. Several products, including degludec and degludec/aspart, are in NDA/clinical stages, which are expected to contribute additional revenue upon launch [3]. - The animal health segment is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, driven by both economic and companion animal businesses, enhancing the full industry chain layout of raw materials and formulations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts that United Pharmaceuticals (03933) will achieve revenues of 13.35 billion, 12.77 billion, and 13.93 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.59 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 12, and 11 times, respectively, and gives a "strong buy" rating, citing the stabilization of its antibiotic business and growth in insulin and animal health sectors as key drivers [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - United Pharmaceuticals has developed a comprehensive pharmaceutical group with four major business segments: formulations, raw materials, biotechnology, and animal health, supported by nine production and R&D entities [1]. - The company is in the third phase of innovation and development, having transitioned from vertical integration in antibiotics to expanding into the endocrine field [1]. Group 2: Innovation and Pipeline - The company has entered a $2 billion exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenues, with the GLP-1 class of drugs projected to reach a market size in the hundreds of billions [2]. - UBT251 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with a 16.6% average weight loss in the highest dosage group after 12 weeks, indicating its potential as a leading treatment in its class [2]. - The company has a diverse pipeline in autoimmune, metabolic, ophthalmology, and anti-infection areas, with UBT37034 and UBT48128 showing differentiated advantages and potential for international markets [2]. Group 3: Business Segments and Market Dynamics - The antibiotic segment is currently facing short-term pressure due to declining demand, but the competitive landscape remains stable, with United Pharmaceuticals being a leader in penicillin [3]. - The insulin segment is expected to grow, with several products in the NDA/clinical stages, indicating potential for future revenue increases [3]. - The animal health business is positioned for rapid growth, driven by both economic and companion animal segments, enhancing the company's full industry chain layout [3].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) shows a stock increase of over 4%, currently at 16.96 HKD with a trading volume of 96.8 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment despite mixed financial performance [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to increase by 27% [1] - Excluding business development income, there is a significant decline of 50% in net profit [1] - Sales of intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients decreased by 23% and 27% respectively, primarily due to falling product prices [1] Product Development - The GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target receptor agonist UBT251 completed patient recruitment for obesity phase II trials in April and diabetes trials in May, with ongoing recruitment for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and chronic kidney disease phase II trials [1] - Management aims to submit a clinical trial application for the innovative drug UBT48128 by the first half of 2026 [1] - New production capacity for high-barrier active pharmaceutical ingredients and Inner Mongolia's active pharmaceutical ingredients is set to commence in October this year [1]

Group 1 - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) saw a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at 16.96 HKD with a transaction volume of 96.8 million HKD [1] - According to a report by Jefferies, Federal Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while net profit is projected to increase by 27%. However, excluding business development income, there is a 50% decline [1] - Sales of intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients decreased by 23% and 27% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to falling product prices [1] Group 2 - The company's GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target receptor agonist UBT251 completed patient recruitment for obesity phase II trials in April and diabetes trials in May, with ongoing recruitment for phase II trials related to metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and chronic kidney disease [1] - Management indicated that a new innovative drug UBT48128 is targeted for clinical trial application submission in the first half of 2026 [1] - New production capacity for high-barrier active pharmaceutical ingredients and Inner Mongolia's active pharmaceutical ingredients is set to commence in October this year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The biotech sector in China is experiencing stable revenue growth, with a significant reduction in net losses. In the first half of 2025, 32 Chinese biotech companies achieved revenue of 46.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.97%. Leading biotech firms have diversified product lines and international expansion, while some smaller companies are rapidly growing due to their core products [6][16] - There is a notable trend of Chinese innovative drug assets entering global markets, with the total amount of business development (BD) transactions reaching new records. The upfront payments and total transaction amounts for Chinese innovative drug assets have surged from 8.7/99.4 billion USD in 2020 to 49.4/561.2 billion USD in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the total transaction amount reached 63.55 billion USD, surpassing the total for 2024 and accounting for approximately 40% of global license-out transactions [7][24] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in seven major innovative drug sectors over the next 6-12 months, including next-generation immuno-oncology, weight loss, and small nucleic acids, which are expected to see significant developments [9] Summary by Sections Biotech Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the net loss of Chinese biotech companies narrowed significantly, with a total net loss of 1.755 billion yuan, a 50.34% reduction compared to the first half of 2024. Notably, companies like BeiGene turned a profit with a net income of 450 million yuan, marking its first profitable period [18][20] International Expansion of Chinese Innovative Drugs - The total amount of transactions involving multinational corporations (MNCs) purchasing Chinese assets has approached 100 billion USD from 2020 to the first half of 2025, with approximately 11 billion USD in upfront payments. Major companies like BMS, AZ, Merck, and Novartis have been particularly active in acquiring Chinese assets [8][27] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include major pharmaceutical and biotech companies such as Hengrui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others across various sectors including traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, medical devices, and healthcare services [10]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 7.519 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit of 1.894 billion yuan, up 27.02% [1] - The demand for antibiotics has impacted the main business profits, with intermediate revenue declining by 23.1% to 1.01 billion yuan and raw material drug revenue down 27% to 2.53 billion yuan [1] - The flu incidence rate has returned to pre-public health event levels since 2024, leading to a significant drop in demand for certain raw materials and intermediates starting from H2 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company has validated its innovative R&D capabilities, with a rich pipeline including UBT251, which has been successfully licensed to Novo Nordisk, indicating potential clinical effectiveness [2] - UBT48128 has shown significant weight loss potential in preclinical data, with a projected peak domestic sales of 4.3 billion yuan [2] - UBT37034 has received Phase 1 clinical approval in the U.S. for targeting neuropeptide Y2 receptor in overweight/obesity indications [2] Group 3 - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 13.86 billion, 15 billion, and 16.26 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 3.11 billion, 3.1 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan [3] - The company expects stable pricing for antibiotic raw materials and intermediates, supporting a "buy" rating based on the progress of UBT251 and other pipeline projects [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's innovative research and development capabilities have been validated, with a comprehensive advancement in its metabolic pipeline [7][15] - The company has successfully authorized UBT251 to Novo Nordisk, indicating strong clinical potential and efficient overseas clinical progression [15][27] - The company is expected to achieve peak domestic sales of UBT251 for weight loss indications at 4.3 billion yuan by 2032 [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Short-term Pressure on Main Business - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.519 billion yuan (+4.8% YoY) and net profit of 1.894 billion yuan (+27.02% YoY) [12] - The demand for antibiotics has impacted main business profits, but the negative effects are expected to diminish as high base effects are eliminated [12][14] 2. Comprehensive Innovative Pipeline Layout - UBT251 has been successfully authorized to Novo Nordisk, showcasing the company's validated R&D capabilities [15] - UBT48128, based on the structure of Eli Lilly's orforglipron, has shown significant weight loss potential in preclinical studies [24] - UBT37034 has received FDA approval for clinical trials, targeting the neuropeptide Y2 receptor, which is crucial for obesity treatment [27] 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 138.6 billion yuan, 150.0 billion yuan, and 162.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with YoY growth rates of 0.7%, 8.2%, and 8.4% respectively [31] - The net profit is expected to be 31.1 billion yuan, 31.0 billion yuan, and 33.8 billion yuan for the same period, with YoY growth rates of 17.0%, -0.3%, and 9.1% respectively [31] - The report maintains the "Buy" rating based on the successful R&D progress of UBT251 and the robust pipeline of UBT48128 and UBT37034 [31]

Core Viewpoint - The company's profit in H1 2025 grew rapidly due to the receipt of upfront payments from BD transactions, with steady progress in collaborative projects. The intermediate and raw material drug business faced pressure from demand, while the formulation segment showed robust growth, particularly the insulin series, which saw a 74.5% year-on-year revenue increase due to overseas expansion. A significant GLP-1 transaction was completed, with a total value of up to $2 billion [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.894 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year. The board proposed an interim dividend of 0.16 yuan per share. In July, the company completed a placement of 156 million shares, raising a total of 2.209 billion Hong Kong dollars [1][2]. Business Segment Analysis Intermediate and Raw Materials - In H1 2025, the company's intermediate sales revenue was 1.011 billion yuan, down 23.1% year-on-year, while raw material sales revenue was 2.530 billion yuan, down 27.0% year-on-year. The decline was attributed to price decreases and reduced market demand. However, the production capacity utilization rates for key products remained high, with 100% for 6-APA and penicillin G potassium salt, and 70.2% for cephalosporins [2][3]. Formulations - The formulation segment's sales revenue (including external authorization) reached 3.979 billion yuan, a 65.9% year-on-year increase. The insulin series revenue was 961 million yuan, up 74.5% year-on-year, benefiting from increased market share in domestic and overseas markets. The animal health business generated 565 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, mainly due to GMP certification issues and changes in customer demand [3][4]. Innovation Pipeline - The company successfully signed a licensing agreement for the GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR three-target drug UBT251 with Novo Nordisk, which includes an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion. UBT251 is currently in clinical trials for multiple metabolic-related indications, with promising results in weight loss and kidney disease [3][4][5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued progress in its GLP-1 pipeline, with the insulin segment expected to accelerate overseas growth. The animal health business is projected to recover as new production capacities come online. The intermediate and raw material drug segment is expected to stabilize in H2 2025, with a new raw material project set to commence production in October 2025 [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 52.2%, up 5.6 percentage points, and the net margin was 25.2%, up 4.4 percentage points, primarily due to increased licensing fees. The company maintained a high level of R&D investment, totaling 550 million yuan, a 14.9% year-on-year increase, supporting its comprehensive R&D system [6][7].