Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector has recently experienced a significant pullback, with the innovative drug concept seeing a net outflow of nearly 2.5 billion yuan in A-shares [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) reached a new high for the year before experiencing a substantial decline, dropping 2.75% with a trading volume of 22 million yuan, and most constituent stocks fell nearly 5% [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF is the only product tracking the Hang Seng-Hu-Shen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index, which includes leading innovative drug companies from the three markets [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities predicts that 2025 will mark the explosive growth of China's innovative drug industry, driven by three core factors: significant BD transactions, profitability turning points for leading companies, and an improving policy environment [2] - Guosheng Securities acknowledges short-term trading pullback risks but emphasizes the solid underlying logic and clear trends in the innovative drug sector, maintaining a positive outlook for the innovative drug bull market [2] - The market size of China's innovative drugs is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.1% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant recovery in stock prices, attracting attention from brokers for research and investment opportunities [2] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) has seen a net inflow of 3.6 million yuan, with a current scale of 389 million yuan as of May 26 [1] - The Tianhong ETF is the only product that comprehensively covers the innovative drug sector across A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on the "Hengsheng Huasheng Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected 50" index [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug industry is entering a new cycle of value reassessment due to a combination of policy, industry, and performance factors [2] - Longjiang Securities suggests that the previous valuation methods used during the bear market may no longer be applicable, indicating a need for a re-evaluation of the valuation system for innovative drug companies [2] - There has been significant interest from brokers, with nearly 60 companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector being researched this month, highlighting the sector's attractiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong performance, with notable gains in stocks such as WuXi Biologics, Innovent Biologics, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and others, reflecting a positive trend in the innovative drug market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The innovative drug ETF (517110) saw an intraday increase of over 2% [1]. - Major pharmaceutical stocks, including WuXi Biologics and Innovent Biologics, rose by more than 2% [1]. Group 2: Catalysts and Developments - A significant catalyst for the sector is the licensing agreement between 3SBio and Pfizer regarding the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, marking a milestone with an upfront payment exceeding $1 billion, showcasing the competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs internationally [4]. - The upcoming ASCO conference is expected to highlight numerous original research outcomes from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, indicating their rapid advancement in innovative R&D [4]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - The overall net profit of the pharmaceutical sector decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, but the innovative drug segment showed a positive growth of 4.3% [5]. - The success rate for innovative drugs in the upcoming 2024 medical insurance negotiations is projected to exceed 90%, with domestic products accounting for over 70% [5]. - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to benefit from optimized procurement policies, domestic demand recovery, and continuous technological advancements, leading to a potential valuation recovery [5].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.88% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index ETF (159557) increasing by 2.82% with a turnover rate exceeding 3% [1] - Notable stocks in the healthcare sector included Federated Pharmaceutical, which rose over 8%, along with other companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical and Kangzheng Pharmaceutical also showing gains [1] - The upcoming American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting from May 30 to June 3, 2025, is expected to showcase over 70 research results from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, highlighting innovative drug candidates with potential for best-in-class status [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities indicated a clear trend of performance and valuation recovery in the healthcare industry, with a focus on innovation-driven strategies and internationalization, as well as reforms in outpatient marketing models for the second half of the year [2] - The A-share pharmaceutical sector and Hong Kong's innovative drug sector are currently at five-year low positions, with public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical industry reaching their lowest point since Q2 2020 in Q4 2024, but showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [2] - The global pharmaceutical investment and financing scale has shifted from a downward trend to a low-level oscillation upwards, with many growth-oriented pharmaceutical companies currently having PEG levels below 1, indicating potential for performance and valuation improvements [2] Group 3 - China’s innovative drug licensing out (Lisence out) total amount is projected to exceed $50 billion in 2024, reaching $51.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, accounting for 30% of the global total in similar transactions [3] - The record licensing amount for SSGJ-707 is expected to accelerate the trend of Chinese pharmaceutical companies expanding internationally, with a noticeable increase in the number and value of licensing out agreements in recent years [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a revitalization with strong performance in antibiotic production and innovative drug development, particularly in the insulin and animal health sectors [1][2][3][4]. Antibiotic and Insulin Business - The company has a leading position in the antibiotic market, focusing on a full industrial chain including key products like 6-APA and amoxicillin, with a stable long-term outlook despite short-term price fluctuations [1]. - The company successfully participated in the national procurement of insulin, achieving A-class bids for all six products, which is expected to enhance market share as the demand for third-generation insulin products increases [1][2]. - The antibiotic procurement risks have been largely mitigated, with most major products already completed in the procurement process [1]. Innovative Drug Development - UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-receptor agonist, has shown promising results in Phase I clinical trials, leading to a significant partnership with Novo Nordisk, including an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion [1][2]. - The company is also advancing other innovative treatments, including a small molecule RASP inhibitor for dry eye syndrome and a JAK1 inhibitor for atopic dermatitis, both in clinical trials [1]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 137.6 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1%, driven by a 14.8% increase in intermediate revenue [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue fluctuations in the coming years, projecting revenues of 144.0 billion, 130.0 billion, and 133.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding profit changes [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 38.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price for the company's stock is set at 21.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 62.2% from the current price, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12% [2][4]. - The company’s valuation includes 142 billion HKD for its intermediate and raw material business, and 223 billion HKD for its formulation business, alongside 34 billion HKD in net cash [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lianbang Pharmaceutical, has shown significant progress in its drug development, particularly in weight loss and insulin products, while maintaining a stable growth outlook in its antibiotic and animal health segments [1][2][3] Group 1: Weight Loss Drug Development - UBT251 has achieved authorization, and the clinical trial results for UBT251 in China show a 15.1% average weight loss from baseline at the highest dose after 12 weeks, compared to a 1.5% increase in the placebo group [1] - The safety profile of UBT251 is similar to other gut incretin products, with the most common adverse events being gastrointestinal reactions, mostly mild to moderate [1] - The company has granted overseas rights for UBT251 to Novo Nordisk, receiving an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion, along with tiered sales royalties based on annual net sales in overseas regions [1] Group 2: Insulin Business Outlook - The company has successfully won bids in all six procurement groups for insulin, with all selected products classified as Class A, indicating a stable growth outlook for its insulin business [2] - The company’s self-production costs are controllable, which supports the expectation of stable growth in the insulin segment [2] Group 3: Animal Health and Antibiotics - The company anticipates that 19 animal health formulations will be launched by 2025, with over 10 formulations expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028, indicating a strong pipeline and growth potential in the animal health market [2] - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry, with a market share of around 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA, benefiting from vertical integration and process iteration [2] - The antibiotic business is expected to remain stable, despite some anticipated fluctuations in demand starting in Q4 2024, due to the execution of centralized procurement for piperacillin-tazobactam sodium [2] Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 145.24 billion, 139.87 billion, and 145.80 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.56%, -3.70%, and 4.23% respectively [2] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is 29.07 billion, 25.57 billion, and 27.62 billion yuan [2] - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of 34.102 billion HKD and a target price of 18.77 HKD per share, reflecting a buy rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.9, representing a potential upside of 62.2% from the current price of HKD 13.52 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a resurgence, driven by its innovative drug pipeline, particularly the GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-receptor agonist UBT251, which has shown promising clinical results and secured a partnership with Novo Nordisk [5][39]. - The company has a strong position in the antibiotic market, with a comprehensive supply chain and a stable market share, despite short-term fluctuations in raw material prices [5][20]. - The insulin segment is expanding, with the company successfully participating in national procurement and increasing its market share through competitive pricing strategies [5][44][47]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending December 31 are as follows: 2023A: CNY 13.74 billion, 2024A: CNY 13.76 billion, 2025E: CNY 14.40 billion, 2026E: CNY 13.00 billion, and 2027E: CNY 13.39 billion, with a notable increase in net profit expected in 2025 [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be CNY 1.49 for 2023, decreasing slightly to CNY 1.46 in 2024, and then increasing to CNY 1.68 in 2025 [3][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated at 8.4 for 2023, decreasing to 7.5 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [3][5]. Business Analysis - The company operates across three main segments: intermediates, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and formulations, with intermediates contributing 19.3% to sales and 67.4% to profits in 2024 [18]. - The antibiotic segment remains a key revenue driver, with a market share of 45% in 6-APA and 14% in penicillin G potassium, solidifying the company's leading position [34]. - The insulin and GLP-1 segments are poised for growth, with the company actively participating in national procurement and expanding its product offerings to meet rising demand [39][48]. R&D and Innovation - The company has over 100 products in the research pipeline, focusing on diabetes, weight management, and other metabolic diseases, supported by a robust R&D infrastructure [12][48]. - The partnership with Novo Nordisk for UBT251 is expected to accelerate clinical development and commercialization, enhancing the company's innovative drug portfolio [5][39]. - The company is also developing GLP-1 biosimilars, positioning itself to capitalize on the growing market for these products as patents expire [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.77 per share, based on a current price of HKD 13.2 [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its insulin and animal health businesses, while the weight loss drug UBT251 shows significant potential following its licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk [2][7]. - The overall revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at HKD 145.24 billion, HKD 139.87 billion, and HKD 145.80 billion, with a net profit of HKD 29.07 billion, HKD 25.57 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Antibiotics - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry with a market share of approximately 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA [5]. - The antibiotic business is expected to maintain stability due to the overall industry environment and the company's integrated supply chain advantages [5][7]. 2. Weight Loss: UBT251 - UBT251 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with a 15.1% average weight loss in the highest dose group after 12 weeks, surpassing the performance of similar drugs [2]. - The licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk includes an upfront payment of USD 200 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.8 billion, along with tiered royalties based on net sales [2][7]. 3. Insulin - The company has successfully bid for all six procurement groups in the national insulin procurement process, indicating a stable growth outlook for its insulin business [3][7]. 4. Animal Health - The company anticipates launching 19 animal health products starting in 2025, with over 10 products expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028, indicating a strong growth trajectory in this segment [4][7]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of HKD 341.02 billion, reflecting its leadership in the antibiotic sector and growth potential in insulin and animal health [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.77 per share, based on a current price of HKD 13.2 [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its insulin and animal health businesses, supported by a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, particularly in the weight loss sector with UBT251 showing promising clinical results [2][4][6][7]. - The overall revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at HKD 145.24 billion, HKD 139.87 billion, and HKD 145.80 billion, with a net profit of HKD 29.07 billion, HKD 25.57 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Antibiotics - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry with a market share of approximately 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA [5]. - The antibiotic business is expected to maintain stability due to the overall industry outlook and the company's integrated supply chain advantages [5][7]. 2. Weight Loss: UBT251 - UBT251 has been licensed to Novo Nordisk, with an upfront payment of USD 200 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.8 billion, along with tiered royalties based on net sales [2]. - Clinical trial results for UBT251 show a weight reduction of 15.1% from baseline after 12 weeks, surpassing the performance of similar products [2]. 3. Insulin - The company has successfully bid for all six procurement groups in the national insulin procurement process, with all products selected classified as A-level [3]. - The stable procurement policy is expected to support the growth of the insulin business [3]. 4. Animal Health - The company anticipates launching 19 animal health products starting in 2025, with over 10 products expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028 [4]. - The expansion into the pet market is expected to drive accelerated growth in the animal health segment [4]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of HKD 341.02 billion [6][7]. - The main business is assigned a PE ratio of 6x for 2025, while the innovative drug segment is assigned a PE ratio of 20x [7].

分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 关税短期冲击减弱，出海仍是主要趋势 医药行业周报 | 投资评级： | 推荐 （ 维持 ） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025年05月19日 | 1. 出海仍是主要趋势，关税短期冲击减弱 根据医保商会统计，2025年Q1，医药出口额为266.32亿美元，同比增长4.39%，其中对美出口46.39亿美元，同比增长 9.6%，美国仍为中国出口的第一大单体市场，占比17.4%。医药虽然有部分被豁免，但仍非豁免品种受到关税的冲击，5月 12日之后，美国订单有望显著恢复。医药交易方面，根据医药魔方数据，2025年Q1，中国医药交易数量同比增加34%，交 易总金额同比增加222%。美国制药企业也是全球医药交易的主要受让方，美国市场是全球最大的创新药市场，未来增长可 能受到政策的干扰，但考虑美国商业保险模式占据主导，而且医疗体制改革需要长周期布局，创新药高度市场化定价机制 仍将维持。近年来，中国创新药的研发效率和质量得到迅速提升 ...