Summary of Federal Pharmaceutical Conference Call Company Overview - Federal Pharmaceutical operates in the antibiotic, insulin, and animal health sectors, with a stable recovery in the antibiotic business and growth contributions from insulin and animal health segments [2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Industry and Business Performance - The antibiotic sector is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year, benefiting from a stable supply and recovering demand [2][10]. - Financial performance has been robust, with intermediate prices previously boosting profits; however, recent demand declines have pressured core business [6][14]. - The insulin business saw significant revenue growth, reaching 960 million RMB in the first half of 2025, with domestic contributions of approximately 700 million RMB and overseas contributions of 260 million RMB [20]. Innovation and Product Pipeline - The weight loss pipeline is a core segment, with UBT 251 showing a weight loss potential of 16.6%, positioning it as a best-in-class product [2][7]. - UBT 48,128 has shown promising early clinical data, presenting significant advantages over competitors [9]. - Federal Pharmaceutical has established a partnership with Novo Nordisk worth 2 billion USD for UBT 251, indicating strong market potential [3][8]. Future Outlook - The antibiotic industry is projected to bottom out by the end of 2025, with Federal Pharmaceutical expected to lead the recovery [6][10]. - The company plans to expand its insulin product offerings, including new products like degludec insulin, which are anticipated to drive future growth [12][20]. - The animal health business is set to expand with new production facilities and a focus on pet medications, with more products expected to launch by 2027-2028 [13][24]. Financial Projections - Future profit forecasts suggest a stable contribution from core businesses, with an estimated profit of 2.5 billion RMB by 2025, and a potential market cap increase to 460-470 billion RMB [14][15]. - The company is expected to maintain a solid cash flow and a strong safety net due to its leading market position [14][36]. Global Market Strategy - Federal Pharmaceutical is focusing on emerging markets and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative, while considering opportunities in high-end markets in Europe and the US [21]. - The company has established a comprehensive global sales network for its upstream intermediate raw materials, covering over 80 countries and serving around 600 clients [33]. Research and Development - The R&D team is robust, with nearly 900 personnel dedicated to biological research and an additional 200 for small molecule development [31]. - The company is actively pursuing collaborations to enhance its innovation pipeline and is optimistic about future BD transactions [27][32]. Additional Important Information - The antibiotic intermediate and raw material prices have shown signs of stabilization after a decline due to reduced post-pandemic demand [16]. - The competitive landscape in the antibiotic sector remains stable, with no significant new entrants expected due to regulatory barriers [17][19]. - Federal Pharmaceutical's animal health segment is expected to recover in the second half of 2025, with new production capabilities coming online [22][24].

The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited 聯邦制藥國際控股有限公司 (於開曼群島成立之有限公司) (股份代號: 3933) 可持續發展委員會權責範圍及運作 成立 成員 權力 會議次數和程式 - 1 - 1. 本公司董事會（「董事會」）謹此成立可持續發展委員會，且該委員會的組成需滿 足香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則的不時規定。 2. 可持續發展委員會的目標是建立可持續發展企業，促進本公司及其附屬公司（「本 集團」）的環境、社會及管治（「ESG」）管理及表現的持續改善，提升相關持份 者場對本集團可持續發展工作的認可。關注範疇涉及： (a) 環境 (包括節能減排、氣候變化、生物多樣性)； (b) 社會 (包括社區參與、醫藥可及性、雇傭、健康與安全)；及 (c) 管治 (包括商業道德、企業管治、資訊安全、風險管理及供應鏈管理)等。 3. 可持續發展委員會須由董事會委任，並須由不少於三名成員組成，其中一名須為主 席。 4. 可持續發展委員會會議的法定人數為兩名成員。正式召開且有法定人數出席可持續 發展委員會會議可行使可持續發展委員會獲賦予或可行使的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects that Lianbang Pharmaceutical (03933) will achieve revenues of 15.088 billion, 14.651 billion, and 16.036 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, -2.9%, and 9.5% respectively, and net profits attributable to the parent company of 2.758 billion, 2.638 billion, and 2.956 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 3.7%, -4.3%, and 12.1% [1] Company Overview - Lianbang Pharmaceutical is recognized as a leading full-industry chain pharmaceutical group in China, currently transforming into an innovative drug company focused on metabolic diseases, driven by its innovation pipeline [1] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in traditional businesses, particularly in penicillin intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients, leveraging vertical integration to enhance cost competitiveness [1] Business Segments - The insulin formulation and animal health businesses are experiencing steady growth, contributing to sustained performance momentum [1] - The innovative business segment has achieved significant milestones, including the authorization of UBT251 (a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target agonist), showcasing the company's research and development capabilities [1] Financial Projections - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11, 12, and 10 times respectively, reflecting the company's growth potential and market positioning [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects that United Pharmaceuticals (03933) will achieve revenues of 15.088 billion, 14.651 billion, and 16.036 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, -2.9%, and 9.5% respectively, and net profits attributable to the parent company of 2.758 billion, 2.638 billion, and 2.956 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 3.7%, -4.3%, and 12.1% [1] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for United Pharmaceuticals from 2025 to 2027 are 15.088 billion, 14.651 billion, and 16.036 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 9.7%, -2.9%, and 9.5% respectively [1] - Net profit projections for the same period are 2.758 billion, 2.638 billion, and 2.956 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, -4.3%, and 12.1% [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 11, 12, and 10 times [1] Business Transformation and Strengths - United Pharmaceuticals is recognized as a leading full-industry chain pharmaceutical group in China, currently transforming into an innovative drug company focused on metabolic diseases, driven by its innovation pipeline [1] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in traditional businesses, particularly as a leader in penicillin intermediates and raw materials, leveraging vertical integration to enhance cost competitiveness [1] - The animal health and insulin preparation businesses are showing steady growth, contributing to sustained performance [1] - The successful authorization of UBT251 (a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target agonist) highlights the company's research and development capabilities [1]

该行认为，公司中间体原料药具有龙头地位、竞争格局稳定，短期受需求减弱而承压；又认为行业竞争 格局稳固，联邦为青霉素绝对龙头，随着需求趋稳，有望企稳回升。该行预计公司2025至2027年分别实 现收入133.5亿、127.7亿、139.3亿元，实现归母净利润分别为25.9亿、23.4亿、25.2亿元。 招商证券发表研究报告指，首予联邦制药"强烈推荐"评级，认为公司主业抗生素有望逐步企稳，胰岛 素、动保持续开拓增长新曲线，创新加速发展，成长空间广阔。创新药方面，公司三靶点GLP-1激动剂 UBT251海外权益成功授权诺和诺德，有望持续贡献催化，后续减重管线中长效PYY类似物、口服GLP- 1小分子早期数据优异，有出海潜力，建议关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for insulin in China is rapidly increasing due to the large diabetic patient population, with Aspart insulin being a key product that effectively controls postprandial hyperglycemia and is now more accessible due to its inclusion in the medical insurance catalog [1][7]. Market Overview - Aspart insulin is a commonly used rapid-acting insulin analog, primarily for controlling blood sugar in type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients, with effects starting within 10-20 minutes and lasting about 4-6 hours [2][3]. - The market size for Aspart insulin in China is projected to reach 8.451 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.33% and accounting for 31.1% of the overall insulin market [1][7]. Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to regulate the insulin industry, ensuring quality and safety while promoting healthy and high-quality development [3]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the Aspart insulin industry includes animal-derived insulin raw materials, intermediates, active pharmaceutical ingredients, packaging materials, and pharmaceutical equipment. The midstream consists of Aspart insulin production companies, while the downstream includes medical institutions, pharmacies, e-commerce channels, and end consumers [4][5]. Patient Demographics - The prevalence of diabetes in China is on the rise, with an estimated 148 million diabetic patients by 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.89%, which drives the demand for Aspart insulin [6]. Competitive Landscape - The centralized procurement policy has reshaped the competitive landscape of the insulin market, leading to price reductions but also providing more market opportunities for selected companies. As of April 2024, six companies were selected for Aspart insulin in the national procurement process, indicating a trend towards increased market share for domestic products [8][9]. Company Profiles - **Ganli Pharmaceutical**: Engaged in the research, production, and sales of insulin analogs, with a projected revenue of 3.045 billion yuan and a gross profit of 2.279 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a gross margin of 74.83% [10]. - **Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical**: Focused on drug research and production, with a projected revenue of 2.01 billion yuan and a gross profit of 1.485 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a gross margin of 73.90% [11]. Future Development Trends - The inclusion of Aspart insulin in the medical insurance catalog will continue to impact its market sales, with ongoing adjustments in reimbursement policies and centralized procurement driving companies to optimize pricing strategies and enhance product accessibility in grassroots medical markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts that United Pharmaceuticals (03933) will achieve revenues of 13.35 billion, 12.77 billion, and 13.93 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.59 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 12, and 11 times, respectively. The company is given a "strong buy" rating due to its stable antibiotic business, growth in insulin and animal health sectors, and accelerated innovation development [1]. Group 1: Innovation and Development - United Pharmaceuticals has developed a comprehensive pharmaceutical group with four major business segments: formulations, raw materials, biotechnology, and animal health, supported by nine production and R&D entities. The company is in the third phase of innovation and upgrade development, with a stable outlook for its antibiotic business and new growth curves in insulin and animal health [2]. - The collaboration with Novo Nordisk on UBT251, valued at up to 2 billion USD, is expected to continuously contribute to the company's growth. UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-agonist, shows superior weight loss efficiency, with a 16.6% average weight reduction at the highest dose after 12 weeks in clinical trials [2]. - The company has a robust pipeline in autoimmune, metabolic, ophthalmology, and anti-infection fields, with UBT37034 (NPY2RA) and UBT48128 (oral GLP-1 small molecule) showing promising potential for future growth [2]. Group 2: Main Business Performance - The intermediate raw materials segment maintains a leading position with a stable competitive landscape, although it is currently under pressure due to weakened demand. The company is the absolute leader in penicillin, and demand stabilization is expected to lead to a recovery [3]. - The impact of centralized procurement on traditional formulations and insulin has been cleared, with insulin exports showing a positive growth trend. Several products, including degludec and degludec/aspart, are in NDA/clinical stages, which are expected to contribute additional revenue upon launch [3]. - The animal health segment is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, driven by both economic and companion animal businesses, enhancing the full industry chain layout of raw materials and formulations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts that United Pharmaceuticals (03933) will achieve revenues of 13.35 billion, 12.77 billion, and 13.93 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.59 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 12, and 11 times, respectively, and gives a "strong buy" rating, citing the stabilization of its antibiotic business and growth in insulin and animal health sectors as key drivers [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - United Pharmaceuticals has developed a comprehensive pharmaceutical group with four major business segments: formulations, raw materials, biotechnology, and animal health, supported by nine production and R&D entities [1]. - The company is in the third phase of innovation and development, having transitioned from vertical integration in antibiotics to expanding into the endocrine field [1]. Group 2: Innovation and Pipeline - The company has entered a $2 billion exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenues, with the GLP-1 class of drugs projected to reach a market size in the hundreds of billions [2]. - UBT251 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with a 16.6% average weight loss in the highest dosage group after 12 weeks, indicating its potential as a leading treatment in its class [2]. - The company has a diverse pipeline in autoimmune, metabolic, ophthalmology, and anti-infection areas, with UBT37034 and UBT48128 showing differentiated advantages and potential for international markets [2]. Group 3: Business Segments and Market Dynamics - The antibiotic segment is currently facing short-term pressure due to declining demand, but the competitive landscape remains stable, with United Pharmaceuticals being a leader in penicillin [3]. - The insulin segment is expected to grow, with several products in the NDA/clinical stages, indicating potential for future revenue increases [3]. - The animal health business is positioned for rapid growth, driven by both economic and companion animal segments, enhancing the company's full industry chain layout [3].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) shows a stock increase of over 4%, currently at 16.96 HKD with a trading volume of 96.8 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment despite mixed financial performance [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to increase by 27% [1] - Excluding business development income, there is a significant decline of 50% in net profit [1] - Sales of intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients decreased by 23% and 27% respectively, primarily due to falling product prices [1] Product Development - The GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target receptor agonist UBT251 completed patient recruitment for obesity phase II trials in April and diabetes trials in May, with ongoing recruitment for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and chronic kidney disease phase II trials [1] - Management aims to submit a clinical trial application for the innovative drug UBT48128 by the first half of 2026 [1] - New production capacity for high-barrier active pharmaceutical ingredients and Inner Mongolia's active pharmaceutical ingredients is set to commence in October this year [1]

Group 1 - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) saw a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at 16.96 HKD with a transaction volume of 96.8 million HKD [1] - According to a report by Jefferies, Federal Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while net profit is projected to increase by 27%. However, excluding business development income, there is a 50% decline [1] - Sales of intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients decreased by 23% and 27% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to falling product prices [1] Group 2 - The company's GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target receptor agonist UBT251 completed patient recruitment for obesity phase II trials in April and diabetes trials in May, with ongoing recruitment for phase II trials related to metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and chronic kidney disease [1] - Management indicated that a new innovative drug UBT48128 is targeted for clinical trial application submission in the first half of 2026 [1] - New production capacity for high-barrier active pharmaceutical ingredients and Inner Mongolia's active pharmaceutical ingredients is set to commence in October this year [1]