Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite recent losses [5]. Core Views - The company's first quarterly loss signals a potential industry bottom, with expectations for supply-side optimization and gradual recovery in prices due to reduced production and increased cold repairs [5]. - The company has a significant competitive advantage as a leading photovoltaic glass manufacturer, which is expected to enhance its profitability resilience during industry downturns [5]. Summary by Sections Operating Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 3.908 billion yuan, a decline of 37.03% year-on-year and 21.37% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a net loss of 203 million yuan, marking the first quarterly loss since its listing [1]. Industry Profitability - As of now, the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 12.5 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 38% year-on-year decline, severely squeezing profitability across the industry [1]. Industry Capacity - According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the industry added 1,200 tons/day of new capacity in H2 2024, while cold repairs accounted for 11,090 tons/day, resulting in a net capacity reduction of approximately 10,000 tons. Many small to medium-sized enterprises are accelerating cold repairs, with numerous new investment projects being announced as terminated or delayed [1]. Company Capacity - The company's current capacity is approximately 20,000 tons/day, with Zhuochuang Information reporting an operational capacity of 21,000 tons/day [1]. Company Advantages - The company has significant advantages in technology, cost, and management, with over 90% of its large kilns being of 1,000 tons or more, leading to lower energy consumption and improved yield rates. The breakthrough in technology for large kilns is expected to further reduce costs [2]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast, estimating revenues of 19.2 billion yuan, 28.5 billion yuan, and 36.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.2 billion yuan, 1.9 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan for the same years, with EPS of 0.50, 0.82, and 1.26 yuan per share [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 30.93 CNY, compared to the current price of 26.48 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was under pressure due to a phase of supply-demand imbalance in the industry, with revenue declining by 8.06% year-on-year to 14.604 billion CNY and net profit decreasing by 34.18% to 1.296 billion CNY [1][2]. - The average price of photovoltaic glass has decreased significantly, impacting the company's profitability, with a reported average price of 13.67 CNY/sqm for 2.0mm coated glass, down 22% from the previous quarter [2]. - The company has a stable production and sales structure, with nominal production capacity reaching 23,000 t/d and in-production capacity around 20,000 t/d [2]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in new capacity additions and an acceleration in cold repairs, indicating a potential near-term bottom for the photovoltaic glass segment [2]. - The company is expected to face continued pressure on profitability due to declining glass prices, leading to adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 14.604 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.296 billion CNY, down 34.18% [1][3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 19.02%, a decline of 2.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.87%, down 3.52 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.139 billion CNY, 2.416 billion CNY, and 3.166 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 54, 26, and 20 [3][2].

福莱特（601865.SH）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 行业供给阶段性过剩，24Q3 盈利短期承压 2024 年 11 月 03 日 ➢ 事件：2024 年 10 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年三季度报告。2024 年前三 季度公司实现营业收入 146.04 亿元，同比-8.06%；实现归母净利润 12.96 亿 元，同比-34.18%；实现扣非净利润 12.45 亿元，同比-36.02%。 24Q3 公司实现营业收入 39.08 亿元，同比-37.03%，环比-21.37%；实现归母 净利润-2.03 亿元，同比-122.97%，环比-127.48%；实现扣非净利润-2.35 亿 元，同比-126.87%，环比-132.67%。24Q3 公司计提资产减值损失 1.13 亿 元，我们预计主要系光伏玻璃产品售价降低以及窑炉冷修带来的存货和固定资 产减值损失，影响当期利润。 ➢ 供给阶段性过剩，24Q3 盈利短期承压。根据卓创资讯，截至 9 月 26 日， 全国在产光伏玻璃产能合计 104820 吨/天，行业库存高达 37 天。供需错配下， 24Q3 光伏玻璃 ...

EF001 EF001 | 股東類型 | | 稅率 | 有關代預扣所得稅之更多補充 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （如適用） | | 非居民企業 | | | | | （非中國內地登記地址） | | 10% | 本公司向所有非居民企業股東派發 | | | | | 股息時須代扣代繳10%的企業所得 | | | | | 稅。 | | 透過滬股通投資上海證券交易 | | 10% | 本公司按照10%的稅率代扣所得 | | 所本公司A股股票投資者 | | | 稅，並向主管稅務機關辦理扣繳申 | | | | | 報。 | | 透過港股通投資聯交所本公司 | | 20% | 本公司按照20%的稅率代扣個人所 | | H股股票投資者 | | | 得稅。 | | 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券的相關信息 | | | | | 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券 | 不適用 | | | | 其他信息 | | | | | 其他信息 | 不適用 | | | | 發行人董事 | | | | | 執行董事：阮洪良先生、姜瑾華女士、阮泽云女士、魏葉忠先生和沈其甫先生 | | | | | 獨立非執行董 ...

| 证券代码：601865 | 证券简称：福莱特 | 公告编号：2024-096 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113059 | 转债简称：福莱转债 | | 福莱特玻璃集团股份有限公司 重要内容提示： | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2024/2/24 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 2024 年 月 日~2025 年 月 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 日 | 23 | | 预计回购金额 | 30,000 万元~60,000 万元 | | | | | | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资本 √用于员工持股计划或股权激励 | | | | | | | | □用于转换公司可转债 | | | | | | | | □为维护公司价值及股东权益 | | | | | | | 累计已回购股数 | 946.6921 万股 | | | | | | | 累计已回购股数占总股份比例 | 0.40% | | | | | | | 累计已回购金额 | 22,145.70 万元 | | | | | | | 实际回购价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's third-quarter earnings were under pressure, with a significant decline in profitability due to a sharp drop in photovoltaic glass prices, leading to the first quarterly loss [1]. - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing a reduction in supply, which is expected to alleviate downward price pressure and gradually restore profitability [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 37.03% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21.37%, resulting in a net loss of 203 million yuan [1]. Industry Analysis - The report notes that since July, the domestic photovoltaic glass industry has seen an increase in production cuts, with a significant reduction in operating capacity, which is expected to help balance supply and demand [1]. - As of October, the industry had a cold repair capacity of 2,450 tons, with daily melting capacity decreasing by 2.34% compared to the previous month [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been adjusted downward due to the company's lower-than-expected performance in the first three quarters. Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 20.399 billion yuan, 24.699 billion yuan, and 29.399 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.42 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.46 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 64.2, 26.0, and 18.5 times [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 13.15, indicating a potential downside of 11.1% from the current price of HKD 14.80 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance has significantly declined due to a sharp drop in photovoltaic glass prices, resulting in a net loss of RMB 203 million in Q3 2023, marking the first loss since its listing [1]. - Revenue for Q3 2023 was RMB 3.91 billion, down 37% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, which was far below market expectations of a profit of RMB 100 million [1]. - The report anticipates that the industry will begin to balance supply and demand due to ongoing production cuts, but significant price recovery will require further reductions in production capacity [1]. - The report suggests that potential government supply-side reforms could accelerate industry consolidation and benefit leading companies with lower energy consumption [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 21.524 billion in 2023, RMB 17.881 billion in 2024 (down 16.9% year-on-year), RMB 20.130 billion in 2025, and RMB 23.444 billion in 2026 [2][8]. - Net profit estimates are projected to be RMB 2.760 billion in 2023, RMB 1.114 billion in 2024 (down 59.6% year-on-year), RMB 1.137 billion in 2025, and RMB 2.297 billion in 2026 [2][8]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in earnings forecasts, with a reduction of 44% for 2024, 49% for 2025, and 29% for 2026 [1]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass market has seen a drastic price decline, with average prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm glass dropping by 22% and 11% respectively in Q3 2023 [1]. - Despite production cuts, demand has not met expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and further price declines of 8% and 10% since September [1]. - The report highlights that the industry has reduced production capacity by 9% compared to peak levels, with the company itself reducing output by 20% since August [1]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated price-to-book ratio for the company is projected to be between 0.8 and 1.9 times for the next 12 months, reflecting the volatility in earnings and policy expectations [1]. - The report uses a price-to-book ratio of 1.2 times for 2025 as a valuation benchmark, which corresponds to the target price of HKD 13.15 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 earnings are under pressure, indicating that the bottom of the cycle has been reached [3] - The report suggests that the rapid decline in glass prices has led to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts, but anticipates a recovery in glass prices as demand improves [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 14.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.3 billion yuan, down 34.2% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 19%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.9%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 3.91 billion yuan, down 37% year-on-year, with a net profit of -200 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline [2][3] Sales and Production Insights - The company sold approximately 1.0-1.1 billion square meters of photovoltaic glass in Q1-Q3 2024, with Q3 sales at 300-350 million square meters, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average price for Q3 2024 was estimated at 10-12 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 3-5 yuan from the previous quarter due to increased inventory and reduced production [3] Capacity and Inventory Management - As of September 2024, the company's total production capacity was 23,000 tons per day, with 2,600 tons undergoing cold repairs, representing about 20% of capacity [3] - The company currently holds approximately 25 days of inventory, with future cold repairs and capacity adjustments dependent on market conditions [3] Cash Flow and Expenditure - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 3.02 billion yuan, with Q3 cash flow at 1.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.2% [4] - Capital expenditures for Q1-Q3 2024 totaled 4.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%, with Q3 capital expenditures at 1.52 billion yuan [4] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward due to the rapid decline in glass prices, with expected net profits of 1.16 billion yuan in 2024, 2.45 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.68 billion yuan in 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company faces pressure on profitability due to a temporary oversupply in the photovoltaic glass market, but it continues to see growth in operating cash flow [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.6 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.296 billion RMB, down 34% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3, the company experienced a revenue of 3.9 billion RMB, a decline of 37% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a net loss of 203 million RMB [3]. - The company is managing inventory through production cuts and cold repairs of older furnaces, with a total of 2,600 tons per day of capacity being cold repaired in July and August [3]. - The report anticipates a potential turning point in inventory levels as the industry begins to reduce production significantly [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024-2026, the forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 980 million RMB, 2.47 billion RMB, and 3.38 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 64/32, 25/13, and 19/9 [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 was 1.27 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [3]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 decreased to 5.97%, yet remains above industry averages [3]. Market Conditions - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing high inventory levels and declining prices, with the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass dropping to 12.5 RMB per square meter, a 21% decrease from the end of Q2 [3]. - As of the end of September, the industry inventory level reached 36.83 days [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company’s cost advantages and leading market position will support its recovery as the industry adjusts to the current oversupply situation [3]. - The anticipated production cuts across the industry are expected to lead to a turning point in inventory levels, potentially stabilizing prices in the future [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a shift from profit to loss in Q3 due to industry supply-demand imbalance, with Q3 net profit at -203 million yuan, a year-over-year decline of 123% [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the company is expected to leverage its competitive advantages to maintain its leading position in the long term [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, down 8.1% year-over-year, and a net profit of 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18% year-over-year [2] - Q3 revenue was 3.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.0% year-over-year and 21.4% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of -203 million yuan [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 6.0%, down 20.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] Earnings Forecast - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised to 1.007 billion yuan, 937 million yuan, and 2.216 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 3.104 billion yuan, 3.479 billion yuan, and 4.690 billion yuan [2] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.43 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.95 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 62.1, 66.8, and 28.2 [2] Industry Outlook - The industry is currently facing high inventory pressure, leading to a significant decline in photovoltaic glass prices, resulting in widespread losses across the sector [2] - There is an expectation for a recovery in component production and inventory reduction, which may lead to price stabilization in the near term [2] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity in markets like Vietnam and Indonesia to enhance profitability [2]