Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) [1][4][19] Core Views - In 2023, China Southern Airlines significantly reduced its losses, with operating revenue reaching 159.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.209 billion yuan [1][5] - The domestic supply and demand quickly recovered, while the international recovery was slower. Passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) recovered to 93.8%, 86.7%, and 91.9% of 2019 levels, respectively [1][7] - The company experienced a decrease in unit costs, which improved profitability. Operating costs were 147.58 billion yuan, up 39.4% year-on-year, but unit costs for fuel and non-fuel decreased significantly [1][12] - Investment losses from capital injection into Sichuan Airlines and foreign exchange losses impacted overall performance [1][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported an operating revenue of 159.93 billion yuan, a significant increase of 83.7% from the previous year, with a net profit of -4.209 billion yuan [2][5] - The fourth quarter saw an operating revenue of 40.44 billion yuan, up 139.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of -5.53 billion yuan [1][5] Passenger and Cargo Operations - Domestic RPK and ASK recovered to 106.4% and 113.3% of 2019 levels, respectively, while international RPK and ASK were at 43.2% and 45.2% [1][7] - Passenger revenue reached 139.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123%, while cargo revenue was 15.28 billion yuan, down 26.9% [1][7] Cost Structure - Operating costs were 147.58 billion yuan, with fuel costs at 52.05 billion yuan (up 59.3%) and non-fuel costs at 95.53 billion yuan (up 30.5%) [1][12] - Unit ASK fuel cost decreased by 22.5% to 0.165 yuan, and non-fuel cost decreased by 36.5% to 0.302 yuan [1][12] Investment and Foreign Exchange - The company injected 4.68 billion yuan into Sichuan Airlines, resulting in an investment loss of 2.34 billion yuan [1][16] - Foreign exchange losses amounted to 0.687 billion yuan due to currency depreciation [1][16] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 7.01 billion, 11.34 billion, and 14.53 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments reflecting a decrease in growth expectations [1][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029) [1] Core Views - In 2023, the company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 4.2 billion RMB, with a significant loss of 5.5 billion RMB in Q4 [1] - The revenue for 2023 reached 159.9 billion RMB, representing an increase of 83.7% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates a positive start to the 2024 peak season, with expected net profits of 6.8 billion RMB and 10.6 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively [1] Financial Data Summary - **2023 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 159.9 billion RMB, up 83.7% YoY - Net loss: 4.2 billion RMB, compared to a loss of 32.7 billion RMB in 2022 - Q4 revenue: 40.4 billion RMB, up 139.3% YoY, with a net loss of 5.5 billion RMB [1] - **Operational Metrics**: - Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 105.5% YoY in 2023 - Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 141.9% YoY - Passenger load factor reached 78.1%, up 11.7 percentage points YoY [1] - **Cost Structure**: - Operating costs for 2023 were 147.6 billion RMB, up 39.4% YoY - Fuel costs were 52.1 billion RMB, a 59.3% increase YoY [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 6.8 billion RMB and 10.6 billion RMB, respectively, with an introduction of a 2026 forecast of 14.4 billion RMB [1] - Corresponding EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 0.37 RMB, 0.59 RMB, and 0.80 RMB, respectively [1] Valuation - The target price is set at 7.03 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of 5.59 RMB [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 159.9 billion yuan in 2023, representing an increase of 83.7% year-on-year and a recovery to 3.6% above the 2019 level. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.209 billion yuan, significantly reducing losses compared to a loss of 28.473 billion yuan in 2022 [1]. - The company's gross margin improved to 7.72% in 2023, recovering from a negative margin of -21.6% in 2022, although it still lags 4.37 percentage points behind the 2019 level [1]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.023 billion yuan, 9.121 billion yuan, and 11.178 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 243.1%, 51.4%, and 22.5% [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company generated revenues of 159.9 billion yuan, with domestic, international, and regional revenues of 117.6 billion yuan, 35.2 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 119%, 20%, and 220% [1]. - The unit revenue per passenger kilometer reached 0.55 yuan, a 13.4% increase from 0.49 yuan in 2019 [1]. Cost Management - The total operating costs for 2023 were 147.6 billion yuan, up 39.4% year-on-year, with a significant impact from rising fuel prices [1]. - The unit cost per available seat kilometer (ASK) was 0.47 yuan, an 18.4% increase from 0.39 yuan in 2019, with fuel costs rising by 32.3% [1]. Operational Metrics - The company's available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) reached 91.9% and 86.7% of the 2019 levels, respectively, with a seat occupancy rate of 78.09%, which is 4.72 percentage points lower than in 2019 [1]. - The fleet size reached 908 aircraft by the end of 2023, with plans to increase the fleet by 40, 18, and 10 aircraft in the years 2024 to 2026 [1]. Financial Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.33 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.82, 11.11, and 9.06 [2].

业绩符合预期，盈利或将重启 南方航空（600029.SH）/航空 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年3月28日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：5.60元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 87,059 159,929 195,361 218,868 228,944 分析师：杜冲 增长率yoy% -14% 84% 22% 12% 5% 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 净利润（百万元） -32,682 -4,209 6,093 14,609 16,075 电话： 增长率yoy% -170% 87% 245% 140% 10% 每股收益（元） -1.80 -0.23 0.34 0.81 0.89 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 0.19 0.00 0.86 1.49 0.97 联系人：李鼎莹 净资产收益率 -59% -8% 10% 19% 17% 电话： P/E -3.1 -24.1 16.7 6.9 6. ...

证券研究报告：交通运输 | 公司点评报告 2024年3月29日 股票投资评级 南方航空(600029) 买入|维持 民航整体复苏，全年大幅减亏 个股表现 ⚫ 南方航空披露 2023 年年报 南方航空披露2023年年报，2023年公司营业收入1599.3亿元， 南方航空 交通运输 8% 同比增长 83.7%，实现归母净利润-42.1 亿元，同比大幅减亏；第四 4% 季度营业收入404.4亿元，同比增长139.3%，实现归母净利润-55.3 0% -4% 亿元，同比大幅减亏。 -8% ⚫ 复苏为全年主基调，营收大幅增长 -12% -16% 2023年我国民航业从疫情的低谷逐步复苏，国内市场二季度起基 -20% 本回归正轨，国际航线稳步修复，年末恢复至 2019 年同期约七成的 -24% -28% 航班量，带动主要航空公司营收大幅增长。 2023-03 2023-06 2023-08 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2023 年公司客运运力投放同比大幅回升，ASK 为 3162 亿，同比 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 增长 105.5%，恢复至 2019 年的 91.9%，RPK 为 2470 亿 ...

（在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：1055） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產 生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 承董事會命 中國南方航空股份有限公司 聯席公司秘書 陳威華及劉巍 1 董事會召開日期 中華人民共和國，廣州 2024年3月28日 於本公告日期，董事包括執行董事馬須倫、韓文勝及羅來君 ; 及獨立非執行董事何超瓊、顧 惠忠、郭為及蔡洪平。 中國南方航空股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）茲通告謹定於2024年4月 29日（星期一）舉行董事會會議，藉以考慮及通過（其中包括）本公司截至2024年3月31日 止三個月的第一季度業績。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [2]. Core Views - The company reported significant revenue growth in 2023, achieving an operating income of 159.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.7%, while reducing net losses to 4.2 billion yuan from 32.7 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. - The operational performance showed substantial improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) increasing by 97% year-on-year, recovering to 92% of 2019 levels [2]. - The investment loss from Sichuan Airlines negatively impacted the company's performance, with a confirmed investment loss of 2.34 billion yuan [2]. - The company is expected to see continued recovery in air passenger demand in 2024, with profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 set at 6.1 billion yuan and 8.1 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved an operating income of 159.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 83.7% year-on-year, while the net loss was reduced to 4.2 billion yuan from 32.7 billion yuan in 2022 [2]. - The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 40.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 5.5 billion yuan [2]. Operational Metrics - The company’s ASK grew by 97% year-on-year, reaching 92% of 2019 levels, with domestic ASK up by 13% compared to 2019 [2]. - The overall passenger load factor improved to 78.09%, an increase of 11.74 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - The passenger revenue per kilometer was 0.551 yuan, down 6.2% from 2022 but up 13.4% compared to 2019 [2]. - The main business cost increased by 39.5% year-on-year, with fuel costs rising by 59.3% due to increased production and fuel consumption [2]. Investment and Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued recovery in air passenger demand in 2024, with profit estimates of 6.1 billion yuan for 2024 and 8.1 billion yuan for 2025 [2]. - The company’s fleet size at the end of 2023 was 908 aircraft, a net increase of 14 aircraft from the previous year [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company has significantly reduced its losses in 2023, with a net profit of -4.21 billion RMB, an improvement of 28.47 billion RMB year-on-year [2][3]. - The recovery of international routes is expected, with projections indicating a return to approximately 80% of 2019 levels by the end of 2024 [3]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in revenue, achieving 159.93 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 83.7% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 159.93 billion RMB, up from 87.06 billion RMB in 2022, marking an 83.7% increase [7]. - The net profit for 2023 was -4.21 billion RMB, a significant improvement from -32.68 billion RMB in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 284.7 billion RMB [7]. - The company's operating revenue in Q4 2023 reached 40.44 billion RMB, a 139.3% increase compared to the same quarter in the previous year [2]. Operational Metrics - The company's Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 105.6% in 2023, recovering to 92% of 2019 levels, with domestic routes exceeding 113% of 2019 levels [3]. - Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) grew by 141.9%, reaching 87% of 2019 levels, with domestic routes recovering to 106% [3]. - The passenger load factor improved by 11.7 percentage points to 78.1%, narrowing the gap to 4.7 percentage points compared to 2019 [3]. Cost and Profitability Metrics - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased to 0.46 RMB, down 32% year-on-year, although it remains 17% higher than in 2019 [3]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 7.7%, only 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019 [3]. - The net profit margin improved to -2.6%, a 34.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to deliver 82 new aircraft in 2024 while retiring 40, resulting in a fleet size of 948 aircraft by year-end [3]. - The forecast for net profit is adjusted to 9.6 billion RMB for 2024 and 13.8 billion RMB for 2025, with a new estimate of 16.2 billion RMB for 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, Southern Airlines [8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant narrowing of losses in 2023, with a net loss of 4.21 billion yuan, which aligns with market expectations. Revenue increased by 83.7% year-on-year to 159.9 billion yuan, driven by the recovery of domestic air travel post-pandemic, despite slower recovery in international routes and high oil prices [8][9]. - The operational data indicates a recovery in domestic air travel, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) returning to 113% and 106% of 2019 levels, respectively. However, international operations remain below pre-pandemic levels, with ASK and RPK at 45% and 43% of 2019 levels [8][9]. - The company plans to adjust its fleet growth, with a projected fleet size of 948 and 965 aircraft by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively, down from previous forecasts [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 159.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.7%. Passenger revenue rose by 126.89% to 136.17 billion yuan, while cargo revenue decreased by 26.86% to 15.27 billion yuan [9][10]. - The average Brent crude oil price in 2023 was 83 USD, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, leading to a unit cost increase of 17% compared to 2019 [8][9]. Profitability Metrics - The company recorded a net loss of 4.21 billion yuan in 2023, a substantial improvement from the previous year's loss of 32.68 billion yuan. The projected net profit for 2024 is 693.7 million yuan, with further increases expected in subsequent years [9][10]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in profitability, with expected earnings per share of 0.38 yuan in 2024, 0.68 yuan in 2025, and 0.86 yuan in 2026 [9][10]. Market Outlook - The domestic market is expected to see a strong recovery in 2024, while international recovery is anticipated to lag, with the company expected to outperform its peers in the industry [8][9]. - The report suggests that the company's valuation remains attractive compared to industry averages, maintaining a favorable outlook for investors [8].

Financial Performance - The company reported a profit distribution plan for the reporting period, pending approval at the 2023 annual general meeting[7]. - The company will not conduct profit distribution or capital reserve transfer to share capital for the 2023 fiscal year[7]. - The company's operating revenue for 2023 reached RMB 159,929 million, an increase of 83.70% compared to RMB 87,059 million in 2022[24]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders for 2023 was RMB (4,209) million, a significant improvement from RMB (32,682) million in 2022, reflecting an 87.12% reduction in losses[24]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 was RMB 40,134 million, a substantial increase of 1,058.27% compared to RMB 3,465 million in 2022[24]. - The basic loss per share for 2023 was RMB (0.23), a decrease of 87.89% from RMB (1.90) in 2022[25]. - The company reported a total asset value of RMB 309,226 million at the end of 2023, a slight decrease of 0.89% from RMB 312,001 million at the end of 2022[24]. - The total operating revenue for the reporting period was RMB 159,929 million, an increase of RMB 72,870 million or 83.70% year-on-year[55]. - Passenger transportation revenue reached RMB 136,170 million, accounting for 88.07% of total revenue, up RMB 76,153 million or 126.89% year-on-year[55]. Operational Highlights - In 2023, the company achieved a total passenger transport volume of 142 million, a year-on-year increase of 127.02%[32]. - The cargo and mail transport volume reached 158,500 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 19.47%[34]. - The company’s revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) totaled 246,947.23 million, representing a 141.92% increase compared to 2022[40]. - The available seat kilometers (ASK) increased to 316,217.46 million, up by 105.55% year-on-year[40]. - The company maintained a safety record of 2.842 million flight hours, leading the industry in safety standards[33]. - The company expanded its customer base to 29,000 corporate clients and 99.06 million frequent flyers[34]. - The company achieved a quarterly operating revenue of RMB 47,661 million in Q3 2023, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4,195 million for the same quarter[29]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience[1]. - The company is focusing on strategic mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position and drive future growth[1]. - The company aims to establish a world-class airline by 2025, focusing on core air transport and collaborative development with a target of enhancing service quality and operational efficiency[51]. - The company is enhancing its hub network strategy, focusing on Guangzhou and Beijing as key international hubs to drive profitability and market expansion[52]. - The company is committed to social responsibility, including rural revitalization and energy conservation, enhancing its corporate image[53]. Risk Management - The company has detailed potential risks in the "Management Discussion and Analysis" section of the report[7]. - The company is focusing on risk prevention by integrating its safety management system with a dual prevention mechanism to address significant risks[73]. - The company faces significant macroeconomic policy risks that could directly or indirectly impact its operational performance and future business development[95]. - The aviation industry is highly susceptible to external factors such as major pandemics and natural disasters, which can adversely affect the company's performance and long-term growth[96]. - Safety risks remain a critical concern, as adverse weather, mechanical failures, and other unforeseen events could impact flight safety and the company's reputation[99]. Governance and Compliance - The board of directors confirmed the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the annual report, with no significant omissions or misleading statements[7]. - The company received a standard unqualified audit report from KPMG Huazhen[7]. - The company has established a robust governance structure, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations, and maintaining a balance of power among its governing bodies[105]. - The company held three shareholder meetings and two class shareholder meetings during the reporting period, with all resolutions passed by shareholders[119]. - The company received an A-level rating for information disclosure from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for the 2022-2023 period, marking ten consecutive years of receiving this rating[116]. Environmental Responsibility - The company has implemented pollution control facilities in accordance with environmental regulations, ensuring that production facilities operate simultaneously with pollution control measures[161]. - The company has established emergency response plans for environmental incidents, with updates completed in 2021 and 2022 for its subsidiaries[163]. - The company has promoted green flying initiatives, achieving significant fuel savings through various operational optimizations[166]. - The company actively participated in carbon trading markets, completing compliance work for the EU carbon trading in April 2023 and reporting for Guangdong Province in May 2023[167]. - The company has reduced fuel consumption by 17.51 million tons and achieved a carbon reduction of 55.16 million tons in 2023, earning recognition as the "Annual Environmental Airline" by China Civil Aviation[173]. Human Resources - The company reported a total of 99,468 employees, with 64,393 in the parent company and 35,075 in major subsidiaries[145]. - The company aims to improve training programs for employees in 2024, emphasizing various specialized training initiatives[147]. - The company has established a performance evaluation mechanism for senior management, linking compensation to performance outcomes[151]. - The total pre-tax remuneration for senior management during the reporting period amounted to 1,157.62 million yuan[122]. Future Outlook - The company provided a future outlook with a revenue guidance of $6 billion for the next quarter, representing a 15% increase compared to the current quarter[124]. - The company plans to deliver 928 passenger aircraft by the end of 2024, with a total fleet size projected to reach 948 aircraft[93]. - The company aims to achieve a transformation from speed-focused growth to quality-focused development, emphasizing digital and ecological transitions[86]. - The company is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position in the Asia-Pacific region[130].