Core Viewpoint - The domestic airline ticket prices in September showed a year-on-year increase driven by improved supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for a turning point in Q4 2025 as the supply-demand gap narrows [1] Industry Dynamics - In September, the demand for air travel benefited from increased passenger flow and longer flight distances, resulting in a higher growth rate than supply. The passenger load factor for both domestic and international routes reached record highs [1] - The six listed airlines in A-shares reported a combined ASK/RPK growth of +4.0%/+7.1% year-on-year in September, with domestic passenger load factors reaching 87.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [1] - For international routes, the supply growth rate slowed, leading to a widening gap with demand growth. The ASK/RPK for international routes increased by +8.7%/+13.6% year-on-year, with a passenger load factor increase of 3.5 percentage points [1] Aircraft Utilization and Pricing - The aircraft utilization rate in September remained high at 7.8 hours, with narrow-body aircraft showing a slight increase of +0.4% year-on-year [2] - The domestic passenger load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.9 percentage points compared to 2019, achieving a historical high [2] - Domestic economy class ticket prices increased by +0.6% year-on-year, while international ticket prices decreased by -15.2% [2] Fleet Expansion - The fleet of the six listed airlines grew by 0.3% month-on-month, with a total of 3,340 aircraft managed as of September 2025, reflecting a net increase of 11 aircraft [3] - The main aircraft types introduced were narrow-body models, including 19 new narrow-body aircraft in September [3] Investment Targets - Key companies to watch include China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), Air China (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the airline sector, highlighting the potential for price recovery driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [6][10]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the airline industry experienced a significant increase in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes reaching record highs. The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines grew by 4.0% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand relationship, with a notable recovery in business travel demand contributing to price increases. The domestic passenger load factor reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [4][13]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a critical phase where supply constraints may lead to sustained price improvements, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors and Pricing - The report indicates that high passenger load factors in September have led to price increases, with domestic economy class ticket prices rising by 2.4% year-on-year. International ticket prices, however, saw a decline of 15.2% [4][13]. - The domestic load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019, reflecting strong demand recovery [4][12]. Fleet Expansion - The total fleet of the six listed airlines increased by 0.3% in September 2025, with a net addition of 11 aircraft. The primary models introduced were the A320 and B737 series [5][24]. - China National Airlines led the fleet expansion with a net increase of 5 aircraft, while Eastern Airlines added 2 aircraft during the same period [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the sustainability of price improvements in the fourth quarter, particularly for business routes. The recovery in business travel is expected to enhance investor sentiment in the sector [5][24]. - Key airlines to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5][6].

Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has announced the winter-spring schedule for 2025, with domestic flight schedules contracting for two consecutive seasons, showing a decrease of 1.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 [1] - Domestic average ticket prices have increased by 5.9%, with an average daily passenger load factor of 87.9%, which is an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The international market is experiencing a peak after the summer season, with daily international passenger flights exceeding 2000, marking a 10.6% increase compared to the National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - Shipping giants like MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have collectively raised prices on multiple routes, with increases ranging from $600 to $2000 per container, indicating a structural upward cycle in the shipping industry [1] - Analysts attribute the price hikes to a combination of reduced capacity at European and American ports, adjustments in Red Sea and African routes, and global manufacturing restocking [1] - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive weeks, with the average price of jet fuel in October showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from fiscal policies, with potential cost advantages from falling oil prices, although exchange rate pressures remain [1] Industry Performance - Domestic ticket prices have turned positive, increasing by 3.0% from week 36 to week 41, aided by industry "de-involution" and improved revenue management by airlines [2] - The decline in oil prices is anticipated to alleviate cost pressures, enhancing airlines' profitability [2] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is also seen as a significant support factor for the industry [2] Related Companies - China Eastern Airlines (00670) [3] - China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) [3] - Air China (601111) (00753) [3] - Cathay Pacific Airways (00293) [3]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600897 | 厦门空港 | 15.20 | -0.85% | 13.03万 | 1.98 Z | | 600009 | 上海机场 | 31.43 | 0.35% | 8.46万 | 2.65亿 | | 000089 | 深圳机场 | 7.15 | 0.70% | 13.44万 | 9556.79万 | | 000099 | 中信海直 | 21.64 | 0.74% | 9.59万 | 2.08亿 | | 603885 | 吉祥航空 | 14.23 | 0.92% | 35.09万 | 4.99 Z | | 600004 | 白云机场 | 9.59 | 1.27% | 16.08万 | 1.53亿 | | 601021 | 春秋航空 | 54.61 | 1.68% | 12.56万 | 6.84亿 | | 601111 | 中国国航 | 8.69 | 2.72% | 136.63万 | 11.81亿 | | 600221 | 海航控股 | 1.7 ...

新一股较强冷空气正在影响中国，多地将陆续迎来"换季式"降温。随着寒潮来袭，10月20日早盘， 冰雪旅游概念走强，大连圣亚涨停，长白山、海南机场、南方航空、中国东航等领涨，旅游ETF （562510）涨近2%。 世纪证券表示，当前我国冰雪产业链已形成"上游资源开发与装备生产、中游服务运营、下游消费 及衍生经济"的完整生态，产业链上下游均有望受益于"冷资源转热经济"进程。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates a downward trend in the total flight schedule volume for domestic airlines in the 2025 winter-spring season, both year-on-year and month-on-month, suggesting a potential for price recovery due to supply constraints and high load factors [1][2]. Group 1: Seasonal Overview - The total flight schedule volume for domestic airlines in the 2025 winter-spring season shows a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 3%, while still being 15% higher than the 2019 winter-spring season [2]. - International flight schedule volume has limited growth, with a 2% increase compared to the 2024 winter-spring season, reaching 75% of the 2019 levels [2]. - The planned schedule volume for domestic airlines in Asia, Europe, Oceania, the Middle East, North America, and Africa has recovered to 79%, 126%, 81%, 171%, 26%, and 267% of the 2019 levels, respectively [2]. Group 2: Domestic Route Dynamics - The overall flight schedule volume is declining, with only five-tier cities showing significant growth, which increased by 4.6% [3]. - The Civil Aviation Administration has limited the release of flight slots in first-tier cities, leading to stable schedule volumes in these areas [3]. - Airlines are likely reducing schedules in less profitable lower-tier cities while increasing flights in five-tier cities, particularly in Xinjiang due to favorable subsidy policies [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major airlines are reducing their presence in lower-tier markets, which may enhance their revenue quality; for instance, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have decreased their schedule volumes in lower-tier cities by 3%, 5%, and 4%, respectively [5]. - The proportion of core city flight schedules for major airlines is significant, with Air China at 82%, China Eastern at 80%, and Spring Airlines at 74% [5]. - Huaxia Airlines is increasing its schedule volume by 5.2%, primarily in second and five-tier cities, benefiting from recovery in capacity and subsidies [6]. Group 4: Strategic Investments - Spring Airlines and Hainan Airlines are focusing on increasing their flight schedules in second to five-tier cities, with Spring Airlines showing growth rates of 6.27% to 31.46% across various city tiers [7]. - Hainan Airlines is also increasing its flight schedules in first, second, and five-tier cities, indicating a dual benefit from demand and subsidy policies [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

Core Points - China Southern Airlines has officially launched the Beijing Daxing to Doha route, marking its second direct flight from a major domestic hub to Qatar's capital, enhancing the air route network between China and the Middle East [1][4] - The inaugural flight was operated by an Airbus A330-300, carrying 231 passengers and 7.2 tons of cargo, with a passenger load factor exceeding 80% [3] - The airline has implemented a comprehensive service strategy, including Arabic-speaking staff and special cultural gifts for passengers, to enhance the travel experience [3][4] Route Details - The new route operates three times a week on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, with the outbound flight departing at 00:35 Beijing time and arriving in Doha at 05:15 local time [4] - Return flights leave Doha at 08:30 local time and arrive back in Beijing at 21:40 Beijing time [4] - China Southern Airlines offers a through-check baggage service and complimentary hotel accommodation for eligible transit passengers [4] Strategic Implications - The launch of this route is part of China Southern Airlines' broader international strategy, aimed at strengthening trade and logistics connections under the Belt and Road Initiative [1][4] - The airline plans to continue developing a comprehensive international aviation hub to facilitate greater economic exchange and enhance passenger value [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - The stock price of Lao Pu Huang Jin (06181) has shown strong performance, closing at 803.5 HKD, surpassing the upper Bollinger Band around 770 HKD, with some investors optimistic about a potential rise to 900 HKD [2] - China Southern Airlines (01055) has also demonstrated robust stock movement, closing at 4.4 HKD, with a peak at 4.52 HKD, and some investors speculating it could reach 6 HKD [5] - Geely Automobile (00175) has seen its stock price rise to 19.25 HKD, but there are concerns about a potential pullback due to resistance at 20 HKD [8] - New Oriental (09901) has experienced a significant surge, closing at 45.7 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong momentum [12] - Pop Mart (09992) has shown impressive growth, closing at 288.2 HKD, with a notable increase in trading volume and an RSI indicator above 80 [14] Group 2: Derivative Products Analysis - For Lao Pu Huang Jin, there is limited choice in call options, with only one product available at an exercise price of around 838 HKD, which has a leverage of 3.5 times and an implied volatility of 73% [3] - In the case of China Southern Airlines, there is only one call option available expiring in January 2026, making it difficult to assess its terms, thus suggesting investors should monitor the stock's performance before making decisions [5] - Geely Automobile has two in-the-money products with exercise prices of 18.8 HKD and 18.9 HKD, both expiring in December 2025, with one showing better terms than the other [9] - For Pop Mart, there are six call options with exercise prices around 300 HKD, with significant differences in terms such as leverage and implied volatility, highlighting the importance of comparing products [15][16]

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