类型：首次覆盖 评级：谨慎推荐 当前价格：7.28 （2026.3.26） 新疆天业（600075.SH） 发布时间：2026-3-27 证券研究报告·公司深度报告 氯碱化工领军企业 多元发展展现竞争优势 历史股价走势图 基本数据 2020/11/29 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 新疆天业 沪深300 数据来源：Wind 大同证券研究中心 公司基本数据（03-26） 总市值（亿元）：124.27 流通市值（亿元）：124.27 总股本（亿股）：17.07 流通 A 股（亿股）：17.07 数据来源：Wind 大同证券研究中心 分析师介绍 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 电话：19801265863 E—mail：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 投资要点： 聚焦主业全产业链布局，打造氯碱化工领军企业。新疆天业股份有 限公司成立于 1996 年，成立伊始，就以氯碱化工为自身主营业务， 多年来，聚焦 ...

类型：首次覆盖 评级：谨慎推荐 当前价格：7.28 （2026.3.26） 新疆天业（600075.SH） 发布时间：2026-3-27 证券研究报告·公司深度报告 氯碱化工领军企业 多元发展展现竞争优势 历史股价走势图 基本数据 2020/11/29 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 新疆天业 沪深300 数据来源：Wind 大同证券研究中心 公司基本数据（03-26） 总市值（亿元）：124.27 流通市值（亿元）：124.27 总股本（亿股）：17.07 流通 A 股（亿股）：17.07 数据来源：Wind 大同证券研究中心 分析师介绍 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 电话：19801265863 E—mail：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 投资要点： 聚焦主业全产业链布局，打造氯碱化工领军企业。新疆天业股份有 限公司成立于 1996 年，成立伊始，就以氯碱化工为自身主营业务， 多年来，聚焦 ...

地缘局势预期波动不改行业长期逻辑推进 核心观点 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 中东局势现实趋严而预期缓解：本周行情仍主要受中东局势主导。虽然霍尔木兹海 峡通行问题还未有效缓解，油价与绝大多数化工品价格持续上涨，但股票行情却出 现较大的波动。我们认为波动的主要原因是市场对于局势可能较快缓解的预期变 化。然而从目前情势看，油气原料的现实短缺问题还在不断加剧。特别是海外化工 企业受制于整体资源体量问题，不稳定性更大。我们认为短期内可能会出现越来越 多的海外化工企业调降负荷，甚至停产。对于投资来说，首先现实与预期的进一步 分化会带来短期机会。更重要的是对于战争前就处于景气提升通道的行业来说，战 争导致的供给短期缺失，实际加速了中长期逻辑的推进。因此我们仍然看好前期重 点关注的聚氨酯，PVC 和聚酯瓶片等子行业。 ⚫ 关注甜味剂行业供需边际向好变化：市场前期对三氯蔗糖景气预期较低，主要是因 为 24 下半年至 25 上半年行业进行过一轮减产协同，但 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chlor-alkali industry is gradually reaching a bottom in its economic cycle, with the dual carbon policy and the mercury-free PVC initiative expected to accelerate the upward trend from this bottom [4][30] - The PVC market is anticipated to improve due to stable domestic demand, no new production capacity, and the cancellation of export tax rebates, which will expedite the exit of outdated production capacity [5][36] - The caustic soda market is expected to see increased demand while supply growth slows, leading to a potential recovery in the supply-demand balance [6] Summary by Sections Chlor-Alkali Industry - The chlor-alkali industry is characterized by high energy consumption, and the dual carbon policy will likely lead to the gradual exit of outdated production facilities [16][23] - As of Q4 2025, the profitability of the chlor-alkali industry has further declined, with significant losses expected to continue into 2026, prompting the elimination of inefficient production capacity [25][30] PVC Market - Domestic demand for PVC is relatively stable, with a significant portion used in the real estate sector, particularly in construction and renovation [36][37] - The PVC industry is not expected to see new production capacity, and the cancellation of export tax rebates will increase costs for outdated production facilities, accelerating their exit from the market [5][36] Caustic Soda Market - Demand for caustic soda is projected to increase due to rising needs in aluminum production and other sectors, while supply growth is expected to slow down, leading to a potential recovery in the market [6][36] - The supply-demand balance for caustic soda is anticipated to improve as new production capacity is limited and demand continues to rise [6]

投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 基础化工 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 19 日 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 2026-03 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《地缘冲突延续带动原油供应紧张， 建议关注自身供需格局较好的化工品 种—行业周报》-2026.3.15 《地缘冲突扰动全球能化供应链，看 好中国化工稳定供应全球—行业周 报》-2026.3.8 《节后化纤价格普遍上涨，看好磷化 工战略价值重估—化工行业周报》 -2026.3.1 氯碱行业景气度逐步触底，双碳政策、PVC 无汞化 推进将加快行业景气度底部向上 烧碱：需求有望增加而供给增速放缓，供需格局有望修复 ——行业深度报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 宋梓荣（分析师） | 张晓锋（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070002 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East war has led to a significant tightening of the global refinery raw material supply as the Strait of Hormuz remains unnavigable. Many foreign chlor - alkali plants have reduced their loads, and some have shut down due to raw material shortages. This has led to a substantial reduction in international PVC supply, which is beneficial for China's PVC exports. Meanwhile, China's ethylene imports are also restricted, and there is an expectation of a reduction in domestic ethylene - based PVC production. Against this backdrop, PVC futures prices have been significantly pushed up. Although calcium carbide - based PVC accounts for 72.6% of the total production capacity, which may limit the price increase of PVC compared to crude - oil - based chemicals, the overall trend of PVC remains strong [3]. - Currently, the domestic PVC market shows a differentiated situation. The expected reduction in international ethylene supply has pushed up the price of ethylene - based PVC, and it is likely to continue rising. The export demand for calcium carbide - based PVC is promising due to the expected reduction in ethylene - based PVC production in Asia, and its price is rising passively. In the short term, the domestic market is in a game between sufficient calcium carbide - based supply and reduced ethylene - based production, which is beneficial for caustic soda. In the long term, there is a risk of supply recovery when the situation eases [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long at low prices but not to chase high prices for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The Middle - East war has led to a reduction in global and domestic PVC supply, pushing up PVC futures prices. The trading strategy is to go long at low prices, not to chase high prices for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Data Core Data Changes - PVC production enterprises' output is 49.74 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.25% (0.12 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 5.75% (2.71 tons). The PVC industry's inventory sample is 184.17 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.91% and a year - on - year increase of 35.26%. The production enterprises' inventory is 43.45 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.07%. The social inventory is 140.72 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 63.89% [4]. - This week, there was no change in maintenance. The loads of some ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based enterprises changed. The loss of production due to maintenance and reduction this week is 11.31 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.09% and a year - on - year increase of 4.04%. The production capacity of enterprises under maintenance in March is 314 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% [4]. - The average weekly trading volume of the PVC market is 1.49 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 tons. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is 39.33%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.84%. The profile operating rate is 30%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.50%. The pipe operating rate is 38%, with a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.56% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory for downstream pipe and profile product enterprises decreased by 0.2 days to 13.8 days. Downstream product enterprises have reduced their purchasing desire and are considering exporting raw materials due to cost pressure and rising raw material prices [4]. - This week, the sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 47.51% to 2.42 tons month - on - month and decreased by 26.85% year - on - year. The delivery volume decreased by 24.11% to 3.86 tons (excluding traders) month - on - month, and the undelivered volume decreased by 8.36% to 19.93 tons month - on - month and increased by 67.45% year - on - year. The FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC for March delivery is 720 - 755 US dollars per ton, and the FOB price for April delivery is 820 - 880 US dollars per ton. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 880 - 920 US dollars per ton [4]. PVC Supply Analysis - **Enterprise Output by Process**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise Output by Region**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise Pre - sales by Process**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise Capacity Utilization by Process**: Not provided in the content - **Raw Material Source Weekly Operating Data**: Not provided in the content - **Maintenance Enterprise Statistics**: Many enterprises, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, and others, have shut down or are under maintenance. Some enterprises have plans to shut down or reduce production in the future, such as Anhui Huasu in April and some ethylene - based enterprises in March and April [24]. - **Production Enterprise Production Increase Plan**: Many enterprises have production increase plans. For example, Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials plans to start production in 2026, and other enterprises have long - term or undetermined production increase plans [25]. PVC Cost Analysis - **Raw Material Cost Year - on - Year Comparison**: Not provided in the content - **Raw Material Gross Profit Year - on - Year Comparison**: Not provided in the content PVC Inventory Analysis - **Production Enterprise Inventory by Process/Region**: Not provided in the content - **PVC Social Inventory/Industry Inventory**: Not provided in the content PVC Demand Analysis - **Product Enterprise Operation and Inventory**: Not provided in the content

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is Xinjiang Tianye, which operates in the chlor-alkali chemical industry and is involved in various projects related to PVC and coal-based gas production [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit loss of approximately 50 million yuan for 2025, primarily due to a decline in prices for key products (PVC and caustic soda) in Q4, losses from subsidiaries, and a provision for asset impairment of 40 million yuan [2][5]. - The caustic soda business remains profitable, with a production cost of about 2,000 yuan per ton and a profit exceeding 1,000 yuan per ton [2][14]. Business Segments and Capacity - The company has a robust asset structure centered around a circular economy in chlor-alkali chemicals, with a total of 2.13 million tons of calcium carbide capacity and 1.34 million tons of PVC capacity [3]. - The company is expanding into niche markets such as medical infusion bags and cables, with a focus on a new 250,000-ton anhydrous ethanol project set to launch in late 2024 [3][20]. Strategic Projects - A significant investment of 15 billion yuan is planned for a 2 billion cubic meter coal-to-gas project, expected to yield a profit of 0.8-1 yuan per cubic meter [2][6]. - The company is also developing a coal-based ethylene PVC process, which avoids mercury catalysts and is more energy-efficient, aligning with future regulatory requirements [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The PVC export market is expected to face challenges in 2026, particularly with the potential cancellation of export tax rebates, which could lead to price competition [8][7]. - The company holds a 60% market share in the chlor-alkali products exported to Central Asia, benefiting from geographical advantages [8]. Regulatory Environment - The company is preparing for the transition to mercury-free production methods in response to international pressure and domestic policy changes, with significant implications for the industry [10][11]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has indicated a commitment to advancing the mercury-free process in the PVC industry, which could lead to the elimination of 3-10 million tons of outdated capacity [11][9]. Future Outlook - The company expects stable demand for caustic soda, driven by growth in downstream industries such as aluminum and batteries [14][20]. - The coal-to-gas project is positioned as a key growth driver, with the potential for substantial returns, while the coal-based ethylene project represents a long-term strategic initiative [20][19]. Additional Insights - The company has a strong focus on integrating renewable energy into its operations, with plans for a photovoltaic project to support its coal-based ethylene production [3][18]. - The company is also exploring various financing options for its projects, including potential equity or debt financing to support its growth initiatives [6][19].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook and government policies impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on the construction, energy, and real estate industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, aligning with expectations. However, there is a notable gap in fiscal spending versus debt increase, necessitating reliance on tax revenue recovery and central government support for local tax sources [1][2][3]. 2. **Dual Carbon Policy**: The dual carbon policy has shifted from "energy consumption control" to "carbon emission control," enhancing quantitative constraints. This is expected to benefit sectors like carbon accounting software, carbon trading, smart grids, and hydrogen energy [1][4]. 3. **Coal Sector Outlook**: The coal sector is viewed as having a "second growth curve," driven by AI-related electricity demand growth, which offsets dual carbon pressures. Domestic and import supply reductions are anticipated, with coal prices expected to rise from a bottoming phase, suggesting over 50% upside potential for coal stocks [1][20][21]. 4. **Debt Market Expectations**: The bond market has already priced in the subdued fiscal expectations, with a short-term forecast for 10-year government bond yields to retreat to 1.85%-1.9%. There remains room for interest rate cuts throughout the year [1][12][14]. 5. **Construction and Building Materials**: The focus is on major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with significant investment opportunities in western development, major canals, and high-standard farmland construction. The construction materials sector is nearing a profitability inflection point, with leading companies like Oriental Yuhong expected to benefit [1][22][26]. 6. **Consumer Sector Trends**: Consumer spending is expected to show a "high-low" rhythm, with potential weakness in Q2. Opportunities in high-end travel and service consumption are highlighted, particularly with the expansion of spring break trials [2][15]. 7. **Investment Directions**: The report emphasizes investment in new infrastructure, urbanization, and livelihood improvements, with a focus on projects like major railways and hydropower. The total investment in these areas is projected to exceed 8 trillion yuan [22][24]. 8. **Real Estate Policy Changes**: The real estate sector's focus has shifted from risk prevention to stabilizing the market, with a new emphasis on a "people-centered" approach. The reform of housing provident funds is highlighted as a key support mechanism [27][30][31]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Tax Revenue Recovery**: The anticipated recovery in tax revenue due to price increases and economic expansion is crucial for addressing the fiscal gap [2][3]. 2. **AI and Energy Demand**: The demand for coal is expected to increase due to AI-driven electricity needs, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns [20]. 3. **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The report outlines significant urban renewal projects, with a focus on old neighborhood renovations and infrastructure safety, potentially driving demand for construction materials [23][34]. 4. **Green Energy Initiatives**: The introduction of "green fuels" and a multi-energy approach is noted, with major state-owned enterprises involved in clean energy projects [24]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with expectations for gradual recovery in various sectors, particularly in construction and real estate [1][10][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and sector-specific developments that may influence investment strategies moving forward.

| 证券代码：600075 | 证券简称：新疆天业 | 公告编号：2026-011 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110087 | 债券简称：天业转债 | | 新疆天业股份有限公司 关于使用部分闲置自有资金进行现金管理的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 基本情况 | 投资金额 | 拟使用资金额度不超过 50,000 万元，单笔资金额度不超过 5,000 万元，可 | | --- | --- | | | 由公司及下属控股子公司循环滚动使用 | | | 遵循低风险、稳健性原则，选择安全性高、流动性好、期限短、风险可控 | | | 的合规产品及运作方式，单笔理财产品期限不超过 个月，具体范围如下： 12 | | 投资种类 | 存款账户办理定期存款、协定存款、通知存款、大额存单等产品，总额度 | | | 不超过 23,000 万元；银行、证券公司、基金公司等持牌金融机构发行的保 | | | 本型理财产品、基金、短期结构性存款、收益凭证额度不超过 12,000 万元； | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the PVC industry [1] Core Insights - The PVC industry's long-term outlook is positive, driven by national "dual carbon" policies and the accelerated transition to mercury-free production [2] - The PVC market is expected to continue its downward trend in 2025, with the chlor-alkali industry benefiting from cost advantages among leading companies [3] - Key companies recommended for investment include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Junzheng Group, Beiyuan Group, Huashu Co., Tianyuan Co., and Jiahua Energy, with a focus on mercury-free catalyst research and development [3] - The concentration of the PVC industry is on the rise, with the annual capacity concentration (CR10) projected to increase from 35.59% in 2021 to 40.17% in 2025 [3] - The domestic PVC market has been sluggish since the second half of 2022, with increasing losses among production companies in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The PVC industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards mercury-free production, with the government emphasizing green transition and energy security [3] - The dominant production method in the PVC industry is currently the calcium carbide method, which is expected to transition to mercury-free processes [3] Key Companies and Valuation - Key company valuations indicate that Kaili New Materials is rated "Accumulate" with an expected EPS of 0.71 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.82 yuan by 2026 [4] - Other companies listed include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, and Junzheng Group, with varying EPS forecasts and PE ratios [4]