机械板块四季度及 10 月投资策略 20251009 摘要 机械研究框架转向泛科技和泛出口，人形机器人和出口链成关注热点。 飞鸽第三代机器人发布，特斯拉计划 11 月发布第三代机器人，国内手 术机器人材料发布及招股书预计四季度公布，共同推动人形机器人板块 发展。 核聚变技术取得进展，上海华都 4 号启动，合肥等离子所 BEST 底座浇 筑完成。商业化虽远，但成功后前景客观，传统与新兴龙头标的均值得 关注，交易逻辑与人形机器人相似。 锂电设备领域出现新的固态技术，可能引发行情。但龙头公司估值已达 明年 40 倍，需关注固态实际放量。前期交易基于宁德招标、业绩修复 及固态预期提升，持续性待观察。 预计中美新一轮谈判可能涉及关税调整，影响特朗普中期选举。美国制 造业修复、减税投资及降息亦值得关注。出口方向业绩较好、估值较低， 赔率较高。 苹果产业链四季度将逐渐交易，关注 iPhone 18 的钛合金和折叠屏变化。 相关龙头公司或有进展，可进行交易。天工国际横跨人形机器人、果链 等方向，是港股中值得关注的标的。 Q&A 今年机械行业的整体表现如何？四季度的投资策略是什么？ 今年机械行业整体表现主要以估值扩张为主，传统 ...

德国联邦研究、技术与航天部长多萝特·贝尔在相关声明中表示，"近年来的形势让我们清醒认识到能源 供应面临的挑战。能源是竞争力、价值创造和国家主权的基石。我们未来的能源必须确保安全可靠、环 境友好、气候无害且全民可负担。核聚变技术有望助力实现这一愿景。通过'核聚变行动方案'，我们正 在为全球首座核聚变发电站落户德国铺平道路。" （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间10月1日，德国政府在柏林的联邦内阁会议上通过了一项名为"德国迈向核聚变发电站"的行动 方案，力图在德国建造世界上第一座核聚变发电站。根据该行动方案，到2029年，德国将向该领域累计 投入超20亿欧元，用于资助相关研究，支持研究基础设施和技术示范装置建设。 ...

Core Insights - The remote operation system testing platform "KuaFu" (CRAFT) has successfully passed expert evaluation, marking a significant advancement in fusion reactor maintenance technology [1][2] - The system features a maintenance robot with a load capacity of 60 tons and high precision in both horizontal and vertical operations, making it a leading solution in the fusion field [1] - The successful development of this platform addresses the technical challenges of maintaining core components in extreme environments, enhancing the operational efficiency of fusion reactors [2] Group 1 - The remote operation system includes a heavy-duty robotic arm capable of handling loads up to 2.5 tons with a positioning accuracy of ±0.01 mm, showcasing its advanced capabilities [1] - The platform aims to facilitate remote maintenance of fusion reactor components that are subject to high thermal loads, strong magnetic fields, and neutron irradiation [1][2] - The project team has made breakthroughs in materials, structure, perception, control, and reliability, enabling high-precision maintenance in extreme conditions [2] Group 2 - The successful testing of the remote operation system signifies a breakthrough in domestic autonomous control technology for fusion reactors [2] - The technology developed can also be applied to other fields such as nuclear power maintenance, aerospace, heavy machinery, and emergency rescue operations [2]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Orders - The company has a total of approximately ¥2.9 billion in hand nuclear power orders, with ¥1.6 billion from the group and about ¥600 million in new orders signed this year [4]. - The expected gross margin for nuclear power valves is closely related to the product output structure, with variations based on pricing ability, cost composition, and market competition [3]. - The company aims to maintain a steady performance in 2025, with a focus on optimizing business structure and enhancing core competitiveness [12]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Expansion - The company’s nuclear power production capacity can currently support the production of valves for 8 reactor units, with plans to increase this to 10 units after the completion of the third phase of construction by mid-2026 [6]. - The first two phases of capacity expansion have been completed, enhancing testing, processing, and storage capabilities [6]. - The company is actively pursuing capacity expansion in the nuclear sector to meet strategic development opportunities [14]. Group 3: Technological Development and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end valve localization strategies and aims to support the development of fusion reactor valve equipment [7]. - It has a comprehensive product range in both nuclear and non-nuclear fields, with strong research and product integration capabilities [14]. - The company is committed to continuous technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance core competitiveness and expand market share [11]. Group 4: Industry Engagement and Project Involvement - The company has been actively involved in coal chemical projects since 2014, achieving significant milestones in valve development for coal chemical processes [9]. - Recent bids for projects include upgrades for coal-to-oil facilities and hydrogenation units, with successful order acquisitions [10]. - The company has a history of significant orders in the coal chemical sector, collaborating with major clients in the industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) has raised $863 million from various investors, including Nvidia and Google, to advance nuclear fusion technology towards commercialization [1][6]. Funding and Investment - CFS has raised nearly $3 billion to date, leading all nuclear fusion startups, with a previous funding round of $1.8 billion in 2021 [1]. - The recent funding round saw participation from a wide array of investors, with no single lead investor, and included both existing and new investors [6][7]. - Notable existing investors that increased their stakes include Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Emerson Collective, and Google, while new investors include Brevan Howard and Morgan Stanley [6]. Project Development - CFS is constructing a prototype reactor named Sparc in the Boston suburbs, expected to be operational by late next year, aiming for scientific breakeven by 2027 [2][3]. - Sparc is crucial for CFS's success, as it will help validate scientific principles and provide essential cost data for future projects [3][7]. - Following Sparc, CFS plans to build a commercial-scale power plant named Arc in Virginia, with construction expected to begin around 2027 or 2028, contingent on Sparc's performance [3][7]. Technology and Design - Both Sparc and Arc utilize a tokamak design, which employs superconducting magnets to confine and compress plasma for nuclear fusion [4]. - The technology is recognized in the scientific community, but there are uncertainties regarding its practical performance [5]. Strategic Partnerships - CFS has signed an agreement with Google to purchase 200 megawatts of power from the Arc project, indicating strategic partnerships that may benefit supply chain development [7]. - The construction costs for Arc are anticipated to be high, potentially reaching billions, and the company is still determining the financing structure for this project [7].

Group 1 - The company achieved an operating revenue of 40.973 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.43% [2] - The company has 26 nuclear power units in operation with a total installed capacity of 25 million kilowatts, generating 99.861 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 12.01% [2] - The company is actively developing nuclear energy projects, with the approval of the Zhejiang Sanmen Nuclear Power Units 5 and 6, and is coordinating with local governments to report site applications to the National Energy Administration [2] Group 2 - The company has 19 units under construction or approved for construction, with an installed capacity of 21.859 million kilowatts, and successfully completed the hot functional test for the Zhangzhou Unit 2 [2] - In the renewable energy sector, the company generated 21.915 billion kilowatt-hours from its renewable energy units, a year-on-year increase of 35.76% [2] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries, including the establishment of a fully automated production line for rigid perovskite and the launch of the "Hefei No. 1" isotope brand [3]

Core Insights - China Nuclear Power (601985) reported a revenue of 40.973 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.43%, while net profit decreased by 3.66% to 5.666 billion yuan [1] - The total profit from nuclear power and related businesses reached 12.375 billion yuan, up 8.97%, with net profit from core nuclear operations at 5.322 billion yuan, an increase of 9.48% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue: 40.973 billion yuan, +9.43% YoY [1] - Net Profit: 5.666 billion yuan, -3.66% YoY [1] - Profit from nuclear operations: 12.375 billion yuan, +8.97% YoY [1] - Net profit from nuclear operations: 5.322 billion yuan, +9.48% YoY [1] Operational Highlights - The company operates 26 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 25 million kilowatts, achieving a generation of 99.861 billion kWh, a 12.01% increase YoY [1] - The average utilization hours of the units are approximately 4000 hours, exceeding the national average for nuclear power [1] - The Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1 set a world record for continuous safe operation at 738 days [1] New Energy Growth - As of June 30, 2025, the company’s new energy installed capacity reached 33.2249 million kilowatts, a 12.26% increase from the end of 2024 [2] - New energy generation totaled 21.915 billion kWh, a significant increase of 35.76% YoY, with wind and solar power generation growing by 33.99% and 37.34% respectively [2] Project Development - The company has 19 units under construction or approved for construction, with a total capacity of 21.859 million kilowatts [2] - Successful completion of the thermal function test for the Zhangzhou Unit 2 [2] - Active site reserves for future nuclear power projects in coastal regions [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company established a fully automated production line for rigid perovskite and launched the "HeFu No.1" isotope brand [3] - The first industrial nuclear heating project, "HeQi No.1," has supplied over 3 million tons of steam, supporting the green transformation of the petrochemical industry [3] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.02 yuan per share, totaling approximately 411 million yuan [3] - Share buyback program resulted in the repurchase of 11.113 million shares for a total expenditure of 105 million yuan [3] Innovation and Patents - The company received a total of 332 patent authorizations in the first half of the year, with 270 being invention patents, accounting for over 81% [4]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - The company, referred to as "水特达," operates in various sectors including paint, nuclear power, and high-end equipment manufacturing, with a focus on seamless pipes, welded pipes, composite pipes, fittings, and alloy materials [2][3][4] Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Growth - The revenue from the paint and chemical sector has increased, with overseas revenue growth primarily driven by stable orders from EPK in the Middle East [2][3] - The alloy and pipe fitting divisions are stable but face pressure due to the absence of special orders from the previous year [2][3] - The alloy division reported a profit of approximately 30 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with expectations to maintain profit levels similar to the previous year [3][22] Production Capacity and Strategy - EPK, after acquisition, has enhanced order negotiation capabilities and financial support, leading to a more secure order acquisition process [5][6] - The company plans to increase domestic production capacity from approximately 20,000 tons to 70,000-80,000 tons in the future [8] - EPK aims to improve the utilization of domestic production lines and is ranked second globally in the metallurgical composite pipe sector [7][8] Market Demand and Trends - The demand for metallurgical composite pipes, primarily used for subsea oil and gas transportation, is expanding [9] - The company is focusing on high-end products, including nickel-based oil well pipes and bidirectional steel pipes, which have significant growth potential [16][17] Future Outlook - The company plans to stabilize the ordinary product market by 2030 while gradually releasing high-precision, high-value-added products [2][3] - The new 20,000-ton capacity project is expected to be operational by the first quarter of next year [11] - The competitive landscape for high-end products is intense, with new entrants facing significant barriers to entry [17] Financial Management and Shareholder Returns - The company has no immediate plans for continuous share reduction and aims to maintain close cooperation with 永兴 [19] - There are no specific commitments regarding dividend ratios, but the company aims to ensure stable shareholder returns without compromising future investments [21] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges in the high-end product market due to intense competition and the need for significant R&D investment [17] - The absence of large orders in 2024 may impact profitability projections for 2025, making comparisons difficult [11] Additional Important Insights - The company is actively participating in high-temperature reactor and fusion projects, maintaining a leading position in the nuclear power sector [15][16] - The overall order volume for seamless and welded pipes remains stable, with total orders around 44,000 to 46,000 tons [18]

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing a reduction in mining quotas, with the first batch of quotas for 2024 down by 6.5% year-on-year, leading to an increase in black tungsten concentrate prices, which approached 200,000 yuan/ton by the end of July, reflecting a rise of over 30% since the beginning of the year [1][2] - China's tungsten consumption is projected to be around 70,000 tons in 2024, with mining supply at 60,000 tons and the remainder sourced from recycling [1][2] - Hard alloys account for nearly 60% of tungsten consumption, while tungsten materials (including photovoltaic tungsten wire) make up 23% [1][2] Price Trends - Since 2020, tungsten prices have shown a gradual upward trend, with significant increases following the announcement of the first batch of quotas each year [4] - The highest operating rate in five years was recorded in June, indicating resilient demand [4] Global and Domestic Supply - Global tungsten resources are estimated at 4.6 million tons, with China holding 52% of the reserves and accounting for 83% of the production, primarily concentrated in Jiangxi and Hunan provinces [5] - China has implemented total control over tungsten mining since 2002, with the first batch of quotas for 2025 also down by 6.5% year-on-year [6] Future Supply Expectations - Domestic projects like Dahuatang and Zhuxi are expected to add approximately 13,000 tons of tungsten supply by 2030, while overseas projects in Kazakhstan and Australia are anticipated to contribute an additional 10,000 tons [7] Recycling and Cost Advantages - The proportion of recycled tungsten in China is currently low but offers cost advantages, with a shorter production cycle and lower manufacturing costs compared to primary tungsten [8] Import and Export Dynamics - Despite producing 80% to 90% of global tungsten concentrate, China still imports about 10,000 tons annually, with downstream products being exported after powder metallurgy [9] Demand Concentration and Trends - Tungsten demand is primarily concentrated in four sectors: special steel, chemicals, tungsten materials, and hard alloys, with significant growth in hard alloys and tungsten materials expected [10][11] - The hard alloy sector has seen production increase from 23,000 tons in 2015 to 60,000 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [13] Impact of Major Projects - The Yashan project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly increase tungsten demand over the next decade due to extensive use of tungsten tools and equipment [12] Technological Advancements - The implementation of nuclear fusion technology, expected around 2040, could dramatically increase global tungsten demand, with a single 1GW fusion reactor requiring 29,000 tons of tungsten over its 40-year lifespan [17] Market Dynamics - The domestic supply-demand balance indicates a growing gap, with overall consumption projected to rise from 60,000 tons in 2024 to over 70,000 tons by 2027 [18] Key Companies in the A-Share Market - Five key companies in the A-share market are involved in tungsten: Xiamen Property, Zhonggao New, Zhangyuan Property, Xiaolu Property, and Anyuan Meiyu, with Zhonggao New and Zhangyuan Property focusing solely on tungsten business [19][20]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group) and 顺丰控股 (SF Holding) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a gradual appreciation of the RMB against the backdrop of easing trade policy uncertainties between the US and China, which enhances the competitiveness of Chinese exports [2][6] - The report notes a slight decrease in the overall activity of mergers and acquisitions in the A-share market, with a total of 66 disclosed transactions amounting to 5233.44 billion RMB, indicating a trend towards structural reorganization despite a decrease in the number of major deals [12] - In the nuclear fusion sector, significant advancements have been made in China's nuclear fusion technology, which is expected to benefit from ongoing investments and the development of related industrial chains [13][15] - The report discusses the emergence of a new market for AI Infra catalyzed quartz fiber cloth, with the company 菲利华 (Philips) leveraging its full industry chain advantages to gain a first-mover advantage in the electronics fabric sector [17][18]