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伊力特(600197):结构持续升级 阶段性降速后静待花开
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 12:29
【业绩】24 年公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为22.03/2.86/2.78 亿元 (yoy:-1.27%/-15.91%/-16.48%)。 2025Q1 公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为7.96/ 1.44/1.44亿元 (yoy:-4.32%/-9.29%/-9.76%)。 分红率:54.40%(23 年:53.24%) 投资建议:24 年疆内白酒市场承压背景下,公司自24Q3 降速出清渠道风险。在新营销战略推进下,公 司稳固疆内市场,疆内主品韧性凸显,预计后续经营情况将逐步趋于良性。考虑到25 年白酒行业大环 境情况,我们适度调整盈利预测,预计 2025-2026 年公司归母净利润分别为3.14/3.48 亿元(前值: 3.99/4.64 亿元)新增27 年盈利预测值3.81 亿元,对应增速分别为10%/11%/9%,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示:宏观经济复苏不及预期;行业竞争加剧;动销不及预期 1) 产品端:25Q1 公司高档/中档/低档产品收入6.20/1.34/0.34 亿元(yoy:+8.77%/-30.75%/-40.94%), 春 节动销偏弱&结构升级持续下, ...
伊力特(600197):年报点评报告:结构持续升级,阶段性降速后静待花开
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-08 11:46
公司报告 | 年报点评报告 伊力特(600197) 证券研究报告 结构持续升级,阶段性降速后静待花开 【业绩】24 年公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 22.03/ 2.86/2.78 亿元(yoy:-1.27%/-15.91%/-16.48%)。 2025Q1 公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 7.96/ 1.44/1.44 亿元(yoy:-4.32%/-9.29%/-9.76%)。 分红率:54.40%(23 年:53.24%) 25 年营收目标:23 亿元 24 年结构升级延续,费用投放加大。① 产品端:24 年高档/中档/低档产 品收入 15.29/5.06/1.34 亿元(yoy:+4.27%/-8.17%/-20.53%),公司中、低档 产品占比减少,结构升级趋势延续。② 盈利端:公司毛利率/净利率 +4.06/-2.44 个百分点至 52.28%/13.05%,毛利率提升或主因结构升级,24 年公司销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率同比变动+2.51/+0.25/+1.06 个 百分点至 11.92%/4.66%/1.23%,我们认为销售费用率上涨或因为 24Q1-3 ...
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250507
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-07 02:02
Macro Strategy - The focus of monetary policy adjustments, including "reserve requirement ratio cuts" and "interest rate cuts," is to stabilize economic growth and enhance domestic demand, expectations, and confidence [1] - The analysis of Trump's 2.0 policy indicates a combination of continuity from the 1.0 policy and a new political cycle, with tariffs and fiscal policies being the main sources of expectation differences [1] Overseas Market Overview - The overseas market data during the May Day holiday showed resilience in the US economy, with core GDP and non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to July [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain interest rates, with a CPI forecast of 2.4% providing conditions for potential rate cuts [2] Fixed Income Market - In the week of April 28 to May 2, seven green bonds were issued, totaling approximately 8.475 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.725 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary capital bonds issued during the same period totaled 50 billion yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 104.9 billion yuan, down 31.3 billion yuan from the previous week [5] Company Performance Insights - The company "老百姓" reported a revenue of 22.358 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 0.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 519 million yuan, down 44.13% [8] - "同享科技" adjusted its profit forecast due to intense competition, expecting net profits of 33 million yuan, 52 million yuan, and 68 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22% in 2025 [9] - "海南机场" is expected to benefit from the development of Hainan Free Trade Port, with revised net profit forecasts of 680 million yuan and 1.02 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [9] - "益丰药房" achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 6.53%, with a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% [10] - "九安医疗" reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.77%, but a net profit increase of 33.3% to 1.67 billion yuan [15] Industry Trends - The report on "科润智控" indicates a significant increase in transformer demand, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to 84 million yuan, 123 million yuan, and 168 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 97% in 2025 [17] - "海吉亚医疗" is expected to stabilize after a low point in 2024, with revised net profit forecasts of 666 million yuan and 782 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [18] - "中国电建" is projected to have net profits of 12.5 billion yuan and 13.2 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, benefiting from infrastructure investments [20] - "中国中铁" reported a revenue decline in traditional infrastructure but saw growth in overseas orders, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 28 billion yuan for 2025 [22] - "微软" continues to show strong performance in cloud business, with net profit forecasts of 99.1 billion dollars for FY2025 [23]
伊力特:2024年报及2025一季报点评:伊力王改革显效,小老窖有待修复-20250505
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-05 08:23
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 伊力特(600197) 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评:伊力王改革 显效,小老窖有待修复 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,231 | 2,203 | 2,311 | 2,588 | 2,944 | | 同比(%) | 37.46 | (1.27) | 4.92 | 11.99 | 13.74 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 339.85 | 285.80 | 332.88 | 396.85 | 496.72 | | 同比(%) | 105.53 | (15.91) | 16.47 | 19.22 | 25.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.84 | 1.05 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 20.26 | 24.09 | 20.68 | 17.35 | 13.86 | [Table_T ...
伊力特(600197):2024年报及2025一季报点评:伊力王改革显效,小老窖有待修复
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-05 07:26
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 伊力特(600197) 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评:伊力王改革 显效,小老窖有待修复 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,231 | 2,203 | 2,311 | 2,588 | 2,944 | | 同比(%) | 37.46 | (1.27) | 4.92 | 11.99 | 13.74 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 339.85 | 285.80 | 332.88 | 396.85 | 496.72 | | 同比(%) | 105.53 | (15.91) | 16.47 | 19.22 | 25.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.84 | 1.05 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 20.26 | 24.09 | 20.68 | 17.35 | 13.86 | [Table_T ...
白酒行业行业研究:磨底期报表兑现仍较优,稳底盘待动销厚积薄发
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-04 07:46
Investment Rating - The report strongly recommends bottom warehouse allocation for stable alpha liquor companies, including high-end brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu and regional leaders benefiting from resilient consumer demand and rural consumption upgrades [2][12]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector's 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report show good performance, with most companies meeting market expectations. In the current environment of industry pressure, companies need to focus on demand and market share while stabilizing their foundations for future growth [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the mid-term narrative of domestic demand recovery, which remains unchanged, and external fluctuations are expected to reinforce expectations for increased domestic policy support [1][11]. Revenue Summary - The liquor sector achieved a total revenue of 438.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 152.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The revenue from Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye accounted for 57.4% of the sector's total revenue, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][13]. - The report notes that the revenue growth is concentrated among leading companies, with non-leading companies continuing to face challenges, although the rate of decline has narrowed in Q1 2025 [3][13]. Profit Summary - The overall profit margin is under pressure, with the sector's total net profit for 2024 reaching 166.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. In Q1 2025, net profit was 63.4 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. However, excluding Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, the net profit for Q1 2025 declined by 9.2% year-on-year [3][13]. - The report highlights that the overall gross profit margin for the sector was 71.4% in 2024, slightly up from the previous year, while it remained stable at 73.2% in Q1 2025 [3][13]. Institutional Holdings - As of the end of Q1 2025, the market value of fund holdings in the liquor sector accounted for 3.71% of the total market value of fund equity investments, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points. Active equity funds showed a slight increase in holdings, while index funds decreased [4][12]. - The report indicates that the active equity funds have an overweight ratio of 3.08% in the liquor sector, reflecting a growing interest in leading companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [4][12].
伊力特(600197):疆外自营提能蓄力 关注改革落地成效
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 06:24
深度变革节奏显著,期待新品陆续上市招商的增量表现。1、产品端巩固强化小老窖、大老窖、小酒海 等核心单品的市场优势,聚焦次高端核心大单品打造,完成产品体系梳理+小老窖控货挺价后,战略单 品伊力王(荣耀70、二代)、壹号窖、大新疆和伊力特曲T10(升级版)推进设计、封样。2、新品省 外招商持续,公司重心向伊力王/大小老窖等集中,较高渠道推力有望驱动疆外增量体现。 3、公司营销体系逐步优化,将销售员工薪酬考核和营销费用核销市场化管理,激发一线团队活力。此 外对所有条码进行梳理,控量提价重塑产品价格体系,使渠道信心得到显著提振,后续改革成效将逐步 释放。 盈利预测与投资建议。预计2025-2027 年净利润分别为3.2亿元、3.7 亿元、4.3亿元,EPS 分别为0.68 元、0.77 元、0.90 元。公司处于深度改革期,战略方向明确,边际变化持续体现,受益于渠道结构优化 和全国化市场布局,看好公司长期成长。故给予2025 年27倍PE,对应目标价18.36 元,维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示:经济大幅下滑风险,消费复苏不及预期风险,渠道拓展不及预期风险。 事件:公司发布2024年报及2025一季报。24年实现营收 ...
伊力特(600197.SH):2025年一季报净利润为1.44亿元、同比较去年同期下降9.29%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 02:29
2025年4月29日,伊力特(600197.SH)发布2025年一季报。 公司营业总收入为7.96亿元,在已披露的同业公司中排名第15,较去年同报告期营业总收入减少3588.05 万元,同比较去年同期下降4.32%。归母净利润为1.44亿元,在已披露的同业公司中排名第15,较去年 同报告期归母净利润减少1476.02万元,同比较去年同期下降9.29%。经营活动现金净流入为-5919.34万 元,在已披露的同业公司中排名第15,较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入减少2.19亿元,同比较去年 同期下降137.09%。 公司最新资产负债率为23.97%,在已披露的同业公司中排名第8,较上季度资产负债率增加1.85个百分 点,较去年同期资产负债率增加2.88个百分点。 公司最新毛利率为48.77%,在已披露的同业公司中排名第17,较上季度毛利率减少3.51个百分点,较去 年同期毛利率减少3.12个百分点。最新ROE为3.57%,在已披露的同业公司中排名第13,较去年同期 ROE减少0.42个百分点。 公司摊薄每股收益为0.31元,在已披露的同业公司中排名第14,较去年同报告期摊薄每股收益减少0.03 元,同比较去年同期 ...
伊力特(600197):夯基固本、战略明晰 期待深度改革成效释放
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 02:29
事件:公司发布 2024 年年度报告及2025 年第一季度报告。2024 全年实现营业总收入22.03 亿元,同 比-1.3%;实现归母净利润2.86 亿元,同比-15.9%;实现扣非归母净利润2.78 亿元,同比-16.5%。单 24Q4 实现营业总收入5.49 亿元,同比-6.6%;实现归母净利润0.45 亿元,同比-59.6%;实现扣非归母净 利润0.40 亿元,同比-63.2%;单25Q1 实现营业总收入7.96亿元,同比-4.3%;实现归母净利润1.44 亿 元,同比-9.3%;实现扣非归母净利润1.44 亿元,同比-9.8%。 自营产品持续迭代升级,短期调整承压夯基固本,长期战略方向清晰。24年公司量/价分 别-13.7%/+15.0%,价增驱动明显。我们认为行业压力下改革进度有所放缓,新品陆续打样,直销占比 提升,关注自营产品招商等产品体系&渠道端调整措施的成效释放。 1)分产品结构看,2024 年高档/中档/低档产品营收分别为15.29 亿元/5.06亿元/1.34 亿元,分别同比 +4.3%/-8.2%/-20.5%,高档酒营收占比提升3.4pcts 至70.5%;25Q1 高档白酒实现收入 ...
《米香型白酒》 国标发布/山西汾酒2024营收360.11亿······
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 21:06
2.蒋佳率队调研阿联酋市场 3.西凤部署江苏市场 4.云门酒业日本联络处及大阪品鉴中心成立 5.古贝春科研新成果发布 6.赤水召开白酒产业发展调度会 7.山西汾酒2024营收360.11亿 8.洋河股份2024营收288.76亿 9.迎驾贡酒2024净利同比增长13.45% 10.口子窖一季度营收18.10亿 11.伊力特2024营收22.03亿 12.酒鬼酒2024净利同比下降97.72% 13.金种子酒2024营收同比下降37.04% 14.会稽山一季度营收同比增长10.10% 15.青岛啤酒一季度营收104.46亿 16.新西兰葡萄酒业可持续发展成果显著 《米香型白酒》国标发布 近日,国家市场监督管理总局、国家标准化管理委员会发布关于批准《家用和类似用途插头插座第31部分:装有USB电源的插座的特殊要求》等295项推荐性国家标准和2项推荐性国家标准修改 蒋佳率队调研阿联酋市场 据五粮液集团微信公众号消息,近日,宜宾五粮液股份有限公司副总经理蒋佳率队赴阿联酋,走访迪拜、沙迦、阿布扎比等地,深入了解渠道建设、产品动销、终端陈列、消费者服务等情况,与 蒋佳表示,阿联酋作为"一带一路"倡议的重要枢纽,一直是五粮 ...