Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

Summary of TDI Market Analysis and Future Price Outlook Industry Overview - The TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) market is currently facing significant disruptions due to a fire at Covestro's plant in Germany, which has reduced global effective capacity by approximately 35% [1][2][48]. - The incident is expected to exacerbate supply shortages, particularly in the European market, potentially leading to a global TDI supply gap of 400,000 to 500,000 tons by Q3 2025 [1][10]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - Covestro's fire has directly impacted the supply of 300,000 tons of TDI, contributing to a global effective capacity reduction of about 1.1 million tons [2][48]. - Domestic TDI prices in China have surged from 12,000 CNY/ton to 14,200 CNY/ton, with expectations to exceed 15,000 CNY/ton soon [1][2][49]. - European spot prices have reached approximately 2,500 EUR, equivalent to about 19,500 CNY, reflecting an increase of over 30% [2][49]. Price Projections - TDI prices in East China are projected to range between 16,000 to 17,000 CNY/ton next month, stabilizing around 15,000 CNY/ton in Q4 [1][6][49]. - The gross margin for the TDI market is expected to exceed 40%-45% this month, reaching 55%-60% in Q3, and stabilizing around 50% in Q4 [7][8]. Impact on Downstream Industries - The polyurethane industry is significantly affected, with downstream clients maintaining only 7 to 10 days of inventory, leading to production cuts of 30% to 40% for small to medium enterprises [4][50]. - Production costs in the automotive and home appliance sectors are anticipated to rise by 10% to 15% due to increased TDI prices [4][50]. Recovery Timeline for Covestro - Covestro expects to restore 50% of its capacity by the end of August and achieve full production by September, although risks related to chlorine pipeline corrosion and environmental inspections may delay recovery [5][51][52]. Export Opportunities - With European prices significantly higher, domestic companies like Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua are expected to increase their export share, with projections indicating that exports could rise from 25% to 40%-45% by 2025 [8][12]. Additional Important Insights Market Challenges - The TDI market is currently facing a triple crisis: supply, price, and inventory [10][11]. - Social and enterprise inventories are at historical lows, with large enterprises having a turnover of 10 to 15 days and some small manufacturers facing zero inventory [11]. Future Capacity and Demand Forecast - By 2025, global TDI capacity is expected to reach 3.6 million tons, with China accounting for 1.63 million tons [12][21]. - Demand growth is projected to slow to 3%, with significant contributions from the automotive and construction sectors [21][41]. Regional Demand Insights - In 2025, Europe is expected to account for 20% of TDI demand, approximately 700,000 tons, while China will represent 40%, around 140,000 to 145,000 tons, driven by supportive policies [13][21]. Environmental and Regulatory Considerations - Environmental pressures are prompting companies to develop low VOC products, which may enhance market competitiveness for firms like Wanhua [23][24]. - The potential for anti-dumping measures from Europe could arise if China's market share exceeds 40% [39]. Conclusion - The TDI market is currently in a state of flux due to supply disruptions and rising prices, with significant implications for downstream industries and export opportunities. The recovery of Covestro's production capacity will be critical in stabilizing the market, while ongoing environmental regulations and potential trade barriers will shape the future landscape of the TDI industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [8] Core Insights - The recent fire incident at Covestro's Dormagen plant in Germany has led to supply disruptions in key chemicals, including chlorine, which is critical for TDI production. This incident is expected to impact TDI supply significantly [7] - TDI prices have been rising due to limited supply and strong overseas demand, with prices in East China reaching 13,700-14,200 CNY/ton as of July 17, reflecting an increase of over 2,000 CNY/ton since July [7] - China's TDI exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 51,600 tons in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.45%, driven by tariff incentives and rising demand in Southeast Asia [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights structural opportunities in the organic silicon industry following Dow's closure of its UK plant [3] - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain its favorable performance due to anticipated earnings growth [3] Recent Events - Covestro's fire incident has caused a significant impact on its production capabilities, particularly affecting TDI and other related products [7] - The TDI supply chain is facing constraints due to multiple factors, including maintenance shutdowns and increased export orders [7] Market Dynamics - The report notes that overseas TDI production capacity is shrinking, providing a competitive advantage for Chinese companies in the global market [7] - The demand growth in Southeast Asia is projected to remain between 6-8% annually, making it a core market for Chinese TDI exports [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the tightening TDI supply and rising prices, specifically mentioning Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua [7]

证券代码：600230 股票简称：沧州大化 编号：2025-023 一、?股票交易异常波动的具体情况 公司股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、18 日连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离 值累计达到 20%，根据《上海证券交易所股票交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票异常 波动情形。 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 沧州大化股份有限公司 关于股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示 ◆沧州大化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、 规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。 ◆经公司自查并向控股股东及实际控制人核实，截至本公告披露日，不存在应披 露而未披露的重大信息。 ◆公司敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 公司股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、18 日连续 3 个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离 值累计超过 20%，敬请广大投资者注意交易风险，谨慎、理性投资。 四、董事会声明及相关方承诺 本公司董事会确认，（ ...

证券代码：600230 股票简称：沧州大化 编号：2025-023 沧州大化股份有限公司 关于股票交易异常波动公告 重要内容提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ◆沧州大化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、 18 日连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 20%。根据《上海证券交易所交易 规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。 针对公司股票异常波动的情况，公司对有关事项进行了核查，并发函询问了控股 股东及实控人，现就有关情况说明如下： （一）生产经营情况。经公司自查，公司目前生产经营正常，市场环境及行业政 策未发生重大调整、生产成本和销售情况未出现大幅度波动，内部生产经营秩序正常。 （二）重大事项情况。经公司自查，并得到控股股东及实控人确认：截至本公告 披露日，除了在指定媒体上已公开披露的信息外，不存在影响公司股票交易价格异常 波动的重大事宜，不存在其他涉及本公司应披露而未披露的重大信息，包括但不限于 重大资产重组、股份发行、收购、债务重组、业务重组、资产剥离 ...

沧州大化公告，公司股票于2025年7月16日、17日、18日连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达 到20%，属于股票异常波动情形。经公司自查并向控股股东及实际控制人核实，截至本公告披露日，不 存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。公司敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhejiang Zhenyuan and Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical both achieved a 2-day limit-up with increases of 10.01% and 9.98% respectively, driven by innovation in pharmaceuticals [2] - Chengdu XianDao saw a first board listing with a significant rise of 20.02%, attributed to innovative drug developments [2] - TaiJing Technology and YanHua Intelligent both recorded first board listings with increases of 9.97% and 9.94%, linked to Huawei's influence in robotics [5] Group 2: AI and Robotics - Nvidia's CEO suggested that Huawei's AI chips could potentially replace Nvidia's offerings, indicating a competitive shift in the AI chip market [4] - The domestic robotics industry is gaining traction with significant orders being awarded, highlighting its importance in national competition [7] Group 3: Market Trends - The light communication sector is expected to see sustained growth due to high demand in both domestic and international markets, with performance likely to continue improving [13] - The low-altitude economy is gaining attention, with a notable $1 billion procurement agreement signed for eVTOL aircraft, indicating growth potential in this sector [17] Group 4: Consumer and Retail - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost consumer spending, which is expected to positively impact the retail sector [21] - Companies like Guoguang Chain and Hanshang Group have seen first board listings with increases of 9.98% and 9.97%, reflecting the positive sentiment in the retail market [23] Group 5: Solar and Food & Beverage - The price of polysilicon has increased by 12.4% week-on-week, indicating a rising trend in the solar industry [24] - The food and beverage sector is also benefiting from government initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer demand, with companies like Huangshi Group seeing a 10.10% increase [26]

证券代码：600230 证券简称：沧州大化 公告编号：2025-020 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 28 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 沧州大化股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.021元 ? 相关日期 现金红利发放 | | | | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股份类别 Ａ股 | 股权登记日 2025/7/17 | － | 最后交易日 2025/7/18 | 除权（息）日 2025/7/18 | ? 差异化分红送转： 否 号）和《关于上市公司股息红利差别化个人所得税政策有关问题的通知》（财税 2015101 号）的有关规定，个人从公开发行和转让市场取得的公司股票，持股期 限超过 1 年的，股息红利所得暂免征收个人所得税，每股实际派发现金红利 0.021 元；持股期限在 1 年以内（含 1 年）的，暂不扣缴个人所得税， ...

Group 1 - The board of directors of Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd. held its eighth meeting of the ninth session on July 10, 2025, with all seven directors present, including participation via communication methods [1][2] - The board unanimously approved the appointment of Mr. Li Yongkuo and Mr. Du Xiaoling as vice presidents of the company, effective from the date of the board's approval until the end of the current board's term [2] - The board also approved the breakdown of the 2025 operational performance indicators for the management team [2]

证券代码：600230 股票简称：沧州大化 编号：2025-021 沧州大化股份有限公司 关于聘任副总经理的公告 李永阔，男，1973 年 9 月出生，汉族，大学本科，中共党员。曾任沧州大化股份有 限公司聚海分公司副总经理、总工程师、总经理，聚海扩建工程指挥部总指挥、TDI 公司 总工程师、董事长，沧州大化集团公司总经理助理、总工程师，沧州大化集团公司副总 经理，现任沧州大化股份有限公司董事、副总经理；沧州大化新材料有限责任公司董事 长。 杜小岭，男，1971 年 8 月出生，汉族，大学本科，中共党员。曾任沧州大化股份有 限公司水汽车间主任，沧州大化百利塑胶公司副经理、经理、董事长，沧州大化股份有 限公司商务中心副主任，沧州大化集团有限责任公司总经理助理兼应急（运营）指挥中 心副主任，新材料公司副总经理，现任沧州大化百利有限公司执行董事、沧州大化股份 有限公司副总经理、营销中心主任。 特此公告。 沧州大化股份有限公司 董事会 附件： 个人简历： 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 沧州大化股份有限公司（以下简称"公 ...