证券研究报告·行业点评报告·基础化工 基础化工行业点评报告 科思创德国工厂发生火灾，TDI 价格快速上 升，或带动 MDI 价格提升 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 证券分析师 陈淑娴 执业证书：S0600523020004 chensx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 周少玟 执业证书：S0600525070005 zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 2024/7/22 2024/11/19 2025/3/19 2025/7/17 基础化工 沪深300 免责声明 东吴证券股份有限公司经中国证券监督管理委员会批准，已具备证券投资咨询业务资格。 相关研究 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 事件：2025 年 7 月 16 日，科思创宣布其 TDA/TDI、基于 OTDA 的产 品、聚醚多元醇产品遭遇不可抗力，影响 TDI 产能 30 万吨/年、氯气产 能 48 万吨/年等。缺失的氯气在短期内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

TDI 海外扰动分析及未来价格展望 20250718 摘要 科思创德国工厂火灾导致全球 TDI 有效产能减少约 35%，预计恢复周期 至少三个月，加剧供应紧张，尤其是在欧洲市场，可能导致 2025 年第 三季度全球 TDI 供应缺口扩大至 40-50 万吨。 受供应短缺影响，国内 TDI 价格已从 12,000 元/吨上涨至 14,200 元/吨， 预计下月突破 15,000 元/吨，欧洲现货报价已达 19,500 元/吨，上涨超 过 30%。下游聚氨酯行业面临成本上升和减产压力，汽车、家电等行业 生产成本预计上升 10%-15%。 科思创预计 8 月底恢复 50%产能，9 月完成全部达产，但长期存在氯气 管道腐蚀引发二次停车的风险，以及环保审查可能延缓复产审批。华东 地区 TDI 价格预计下月在 16,000-17,000 元/吨区间，四季度维稳在 15,000 元/吨左右。 TDI 市场毛利率预计本月突破 40%-45%，三季度达到 55%-60%，四 季度维稳在 50%左右。欧洲溢价超过 3,000 元/吨，国内企业如万华化 学、沧州大化等有望扩大出口份额，预计 2025 年出口占比从 25%跳涨 至 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [8] Core Insights - The recent fire incident at Covestro's Dormagen plant in Germany has led to supply disruptions in key chemicals, including chlorine, which is critical for TDI production. This incident is expected to impact TDI supply significantly [7] - TDI prices have been rising due to limited supply and strong overseas demand, with prices in East China reaching 13,700-14,200 CNY/ton as of July 17, reflecting an increase of over 2,000 CNY/ton since July [7] - China's TDI exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 51,600 tons in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.45%, driven by tariff incentives and rising demand in Southeast Asia [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights structural opportunities in the organic silicon industry following Dow's closure of its UK plant [3] - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain its favorable performance due to anticipated earnings growth [3] Recent Events - Covestro's fire incident has caused a significant impact on its production capabilities, particularly affecting TDI and other related products [7] - The TDI supply chain is facing constraints due to multiple factors, including maintenance shutdowns and increased export orders [7] Market Dynamics - The report notes that overseas TDI production capacity is shrinking, providing a competitive advantage for Chinese companies in the global market [7] - The demand growth in Southeast Asia is projected to remain between 6-8% annually, making it a core market for Chinese TDI exports [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the tightening TDI supply and rising prices, specifically mentioning Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua [7]

证券代码：600230 股票简称：沧州大化 编号：2025-023 一、?股票交易异常波动的具体情况 公司股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、18 日连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离 值累计达到 20%，根据《上海证券交易所股票交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票异常 波动情形。 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 沧州大化股份有限公司 关于股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示 ◆沧州大化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、 规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。 ◆经公司自查并向控股股东及实际控制人核实，截至本公告披露日，不存在应披 露而未披露的重大信息。 ◆公司敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 公司股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、18 日连续 3 个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离 值累计超过 20%，敬请广大投资者注意交易风险，谨慎、理性投资。 四、董事会声明及相关方承诺 本公司董事会确认，（ ...

证券代码：600230 股票简称：沧州大化 编号：2025-023 沧州大化股份有限公司 关于股票交易异常波动公告 重要内容提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ◆沧州大化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 7 月 16 日、17 日、 18 日连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 20%。根据《上海证券交易所交易 规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。 针对公司股票异常波动的情况，公司对有关事项进行了核查，并发函询问了控股 股东及实控人，现就有关情况说明如下： （一）生产经营情况。经公司自查，公司目前生产经营正常，市场环境及行业政 策未发生重大调整、生产成本和销售情况未出现大幅度波动，内部生产经营秩序正常。 （二）重大事项情况。经公司自查，并得到控股股东及实控人确认：截至本公告 披露日，除了在指定媒体上已公开披露的信息外，不存在影响公司股票交易价格异常 波动的重大事宜，不存在其他涉及本公司应披露而未披露的重大信息，包括但不限于 重大资产重组、股份发行、收购、债务重组、业务重组、资产剥离 ...

沧州大化公告，公司股票于2025年7月16日、17日、18日连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达 到20%，属于股票异常波动情形。经公司自查并向控股股东及实际控制人核实，截至本公告披露日，不 存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。公司敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhejiang Zhenyuan and Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical both achieved a 2-day limit-up with increases of 10.01% and 9.98% respectively, driven by innovation in pharmaceuticals [2] - Chengdu XianDao saw a first board listing with a significant rise of 20.02%, attributed to innovative drug developments [2] - TaiJing Technology and YanHua Intelligent both recorded first board listings with increases of 9.97% and 9.94%, linked to Huawei's influence in robotics [5] Group 2: AI and Robotics - Nvidia's CEO suggested that Huawei's AI chips could potentially replace Nvidia's offerings, indicating a competitive shift in the AI chip market [4] - The domestic robotics industry is gaining traction with significant orders being awarded, highlighting its importance in national competition [7] Group 3: Market Trends - The light communication sector is expected to see sustained growth due to high demand in both domestic and international markets, with performance likely to continue improving [13] - The low-altitude economy is gaining attention, with a notable $1 billion procurement agreement signed for eVTOL aircraft, indicating growth potential in this sector [17] Group 4: Consumer and Retail - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost consumer spending, which is expected to positively impact the retail sector [21] - Companies like Guoguang Chain and Hanshang Group have seen first board listings with increases of 9.98% and 9.97%, reflecting the positive sentiment in the retail market [23] Group 5: Solar and Food & Beverage - The price of polysilicon has increased by 12.4% week-on-week, indicating a rising trend in the solar industry [24] - The food and beverage sector is also benefiting from government initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer demand, with companies like Huangshi Group seeing a 10.10% increase [26]

证券代码：600230 证券简称：沧州大化 公告编号：2025-020 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 28 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 沧州大化股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.021元 ? 相关日期 现金红利发放 | | | | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股份类别 Ａ股 | 股权登记日 2025/7/17 | － | 最后交易日 2025/7/18 | 除权（息）日 2025/7/18 | ? 差异化分红送转： 否 号）和《关于上市公司股息红利差别化个人所得税政策有关问题的通知》（财税 2015101 号）的有关规定，个人从公开发行和转让市场取得的公司股票，持股期 限超过 1 年的，股息红利所得暂免征收个人所得税，每股实际派发现金红利 0.021 元；持股期限在 1 年以内（含 1 年）的，暂不扣缴个人所得税， ...

Group 1 - The board of directors of Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd. held its eighth meeting of the ninth session on July 10, 2025, with all seven directors present, including participation via communication methods [1][2] - The board unanimously approved the appointment of Mr. Li Yongkuo and Mr. Du Xiaoling as vice presidents of the company, effective from the date of the board's approval until the end of the current board's term [2] - The board also approved the breakdown of the 2025 operational performance indicators for the management team [2]