江苏扬农化工股份有限公司 2025 年年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 本公司根据上海证券交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十三号——化工》要求， 现将 2025 年年度主要经营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 （一）主要产品价格变动情况 证券代码：600486 证券简称：扬农化工 编号：临 2026-011 1 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 主要产品 产量（吨） 销量（吨） 营业收入（万元） 原药 113,776.72 113,475.18 731,528.72 制剂（不折百） 36,713.15 36,828.54 149,761.45 | | 2025 年度 | 2024 年度 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平均采购价格 | 平均采购价格 | 价格变动情况 | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | | | 甲醛 | 1,061 | 1,087 | -2.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a supply shock due to a shortage of upstream raw materials, a significant increase in costs, and a change in trade flows. Coupled with the current peak demand and blending season, the prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen strongly [4]. - Currently in the blending season, overseas needs aromatics for blending, but the production of blending aromatics such as toluene may decline due to refinery load reduction, and exports are expected to decrease [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply Impact of Strait Blockade** - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant decline in the shipment of naphtha from the Middle East. South Korea and Japan, which receive most of the Middle East naphtha, are most affected. If the war continues, the export of pure benzene from South Korea and Japan may decrease significantly [13][18]. - Northeast Asia's pure benzene supply is decreasing. The maintenance volume in Northeast Asia is on the rise, and some refineries have started to reduce their loads. Without other naphtha sources, pure benzene supply will be very limited [23]. - **Change in Trade Flows** - India's pure benzene trade flow may shift from the Middle East to China. If the war lasts for a long time, China's imports of pure benzene from India are expected to increase significantly [30]. - **Market Signals** - The strengthening basis, monthly spread, and BZN spread indicate a tightening of spot supply. The pure benzene market has changed from a contango structure to a Back structure, reflecting the supply shortage [40]. Styrene - **Supply and Trade Impact of Strait Blockade** - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the export of styrene from the Middle East. India and Europe are expected to mainly import styrene from China [64][66]. - From the perspective of maintenance, Europe's imports of styrene from the Americas may be limited due to maintenance, and imports from the Middle East are cut off. With the increase in future maintenance volume in Europe, it is expected to import from China [69]. - **Demand Outlook** - Among the downstream three S products, only the EPS operating rate has returned to the pre - holiday level, while PS and ABS still need to resume work, and future demand is expected to increase [74]. - The overall profit of the downstream three S products has been partially repaired, but the final profit depends on whether end - users can accept the current high prices [81]. Blending Peak Season - **Blending Logic** - Toluene and xylene in aromatics can be used for blending gasoline, and reformate can also be used for blending. Europe and the United States are currently in the process of switching gasoline specifications and are importing aromatics for blending [88]. - **Profit Comparison** - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in gasoline prices. The blending profit of toluene is much higher than the disproportionation profit, and the gasoline reforming profit is much higher than the aromatic reforming profit. Refineries are expected to mainly produce gasoline, and the output of aromatics is expected to shrink [92][96].

Core Viewpoint - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has significant implications for the transportation of petrochemical products, leading to supply shortages and increased costs in the downstream markets for pure benzene and styrene [3][6]. Group 1: Impact of the Strait Blockade - The blockade has disrupted the transportation of naphtha and crude oil to Northeast Asia, forcing refineries to reduce output, which in turn leads to a decrease in pure benzene supply [3][10]. - The blockade has caused a surge in naphtha and crude oil prices, which is transmitted downstream, increasing the costs of pure benzene and styrene [4]. - The blockade has resulted in Asian countries prohibiting the export of gasoline, leading to a significant increase in gasoline prices, with toluene refining profits surpassing those from disproportionation [4][53]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Changes - The blockade has led to a substantial decrease in naphtha shipments from the Middle East, particularly affecting Japan and South Korea, which are heavily reliant on these imports [10][11]. - If the conflict persists, it is expected that the export of pure benzene from Japan and South Korea will significantly decrease due to the lack of naphtha [12][16]. - The current maintenance schedules in Northeast Asia are expected to increase, with confirmed reductions in refinery outputs across several facilities [19][22]. Group 3: Demand and Price Dynamics - The demand for pure benzene and styrene is anticipated to rise as the downstream markets recover, particularly in the EPS sector, which has returned to pre-holiday operating levels [5][40]. - The price of pure benzene has shown a strong upward trend, with market dynamics indicating a tightening supply situation due to the blockade [30][32]. - The overall profitability in the downstream sector is recovering, although it remains contingent on the acceptance of higher prices by end-users [43][44]. Group 4: Trade Flow Adjustments - The blockade has shifted trade flows, with Indian pure benzene exports likely redirecting towards East Asia and Europe instead of the Middle East [23][24]. - If the conflict continues, it is projected that China will significantly increase its imports of pure benzene from India, with estimates suggesting around 21.77 million tons by 2025 [24]. - The blockade has also impacted the availability of styrene, with expectations that India will increasingly rely on China for imports due to disrupted supply chains [36][37].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the prices of benzene and styrene, highlighting a significant reduction in naphtha shipments from the Middle East, which has dropped by approximately 95% [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: The benzene market has shifted from a contango structure to a backwardation structure, with the BZN spread widening. Despite high inventory levels in East China, the market has entered a "buy on expectation" phase, leading to a tightening of supply and a continued price increase [1][4]. - **Supply Chain Disruptions**: The blockade has caused a systemic shock to the global petrochemical supply chain, with transportation costs rising significantly due to increased freight and insurance costs. This has led to a reduction in supply and an increase in prices for benzene and styrene [2][9]. - **Production Adjustments**: Refineries are shifting production towards gasoline due to higher profits from gasoline production compared to benzene and toluene, further constricting the supply of benzene and styrene [1][7]. - **Profit Concentration**: The profit margins in the styrene industry are increasingly concentrated in the midstream sector, with the reasonable price for styrene estimated at approximately 11,781 CNY/ton based on a WTI crude oil price of 118 USD/barrel [1][9]. Trade Flow Changes - **Reconstruction of Trade Flows**: With Middle Eastern supplies disrupted, India and Europe may rely on China to fill the gap in styrene exports, while Indian benzene may shift from the Middle East to East Asia to compensate for production cuts in Japan and South Korea [1][3][5]. Downstream Demand and Price Transmission - **3S Products**: The downstream 3S (ABS/PS/EPS) products are experiencing a recovery in profits, with EPS seeing a surge in orders. However, there are concerns about the end-user's ability to absorb high prices [1][6][11]. - **Price Transmission**: The current demand for styrene is strong, with downstream prices rising significantly. The ability of end-users to absorb these price increases will be crucial for maintaining demand [6][12]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - **High Inventory Levels**: Despite high inventory levels, prices continue to rise due to market expectations of future supply issues. Traders are adopting a "buy on expectation" strategy, leading to tighter circulation of goods [4][12]. - **Speculative Behavior**: There is a tendency among traders to stockpile goods in anticipation of further price increases, which has led to a rapid rise in prices for styrene and its derivatives [11][12]. Future Outlook - **Potential Risks**: If crude oil prices decline, there is a risk of profit margins being squeezed back, particularly for styrene and related products. The market is currently exhibiting speculative behavior, which could lead to volatility [12][13]. - **Long-term Supply Concerns**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for prolonged disruptions in supply chains could lead to sustained high prices and further market adjustments [3][10][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Geopolitical Events**: The blockade's implications extend beyond immediate supply issues, affecting global trade patterns and regional supply balances, particularly in Europe and India [5][14]. - **Cost Structure Analysis**: The integrated cost of styrene production is highly sensitive to fluctuations in crude oil prices, with estimates indicating that a 1 USD increase in oil prices could raise styrene costs by approximately 100 CNY [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the benzene and styrene markets amidst geopolitical tensions.

Core Viewpoint - The current commodity market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, particularly between the non-ferrous/energy chemical sector and the non-ferrous/black sector, with notable price divergence driven by various factors [4]. Group A: Energy Chemical Sector Dynamics - The energy chemical sector is under long-term pressure due to weak cost support, with predictions of a global oil surplus of approximately 3 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, limiting upward price elasticity [4]. - Recent marginal changes, including geopolitical fluctuations and supply disruptions, are stimulating market enthusiasm for energy chemical products, potentially leading to a phase of valuation recovery [4]. - The petrochemical industry is facing profound raw material supply bottlenecks, with global oil demand entering a slow growth phase and significant structural contradictions emerging [4]. - The global refining capacity landscape is being reshaped, with marginal capacity vulnerabilities becoming apparent as production shifts from developed economies to emerging markets like China and India [5]. - The geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have injected a strong short-term risk premium into the market, with the probability of localized military conflict rising to over 70%, pushing Brent crude prices to near six-month highs [5][6]. Group B: Supply Chain Interdependencies - The concept of "passive supply" is crucial in understanding the supply dynamics within the energy chemical sector, where supply changes are often driven by interdependencies within the production chain rather than direct supply-demand balances [6][7]. - In the chlor-alkali industry, the supply of PVC is a typical example of passive supply, where the production of caustic soda and liquid chlorine is interlinked, leading to supply constraints even when PVC profits are low [7][11]. - The interaction between the aromatics industry and fuel oil markets creates a passive supply transfer effect, where high demand for gasoline can lead to a reallocation of resources from chemical production to fuel oil, impacting the supply of key chemical feedstocks [13][17]. Group C: Market Dynamics and Price Elasticity - The analysis of supply in the energy chemical sector must transcend single-product supply-demand balances, focusing on the overall industry chain and cross-market linkages [28]. - The current configuration in the energy chemical sector suggests that the aromatics industry chain (PTA, PX, styrene, and pure benzene) and asphalt may become preferred options, with caustic soda showing favorable odds [29].

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's petrochemical product exports declined by 1.5% year-on-year in January, totaling $35.2 billion, primarily due to global oversupply affecting prices, despite strong semiconductor exports [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In January, South Korea's overall export value surged by 33.9% year-on-year, reaching $658.5 billion, driven by robust semiconductor exports [1] - The import value also increased by 11.7% year-on-year, amounting to $571.1 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $87.4 billion [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The decline in petrochemical exports is attributed to low prices caused by global supply excess, impacting the overall export performance of the petrochemical sector [1] - The South Korean petrochemical industry is undergoing a restructuring phase supported by the government, with companies agreeing to reduce production capacity by August 2025 due to ongoing low profit margins and supply surplus [1]

Core Insights - The recent surge in crude oil prices has led to a significant decline in refining profits across major domestic refining routes, with downstream product prices lagging behind, resulting in heightened cost pressures [1][5] Profit Analysis - As of January 30, 2026, the theoretical profit for the comprehensive refining route has expanded its losses to -490.96 yuan/ton, a decline of 108.56% compared to January 23, 2026 [2][3] - The theoretical profits for the refining-aromatic and refining-olefin routes are 136.47 yuan/ton and 58.69 yuan/ton respectively, but have decreased by 65.99% and 80.51% compared to the previous week [2][3] Price Dynamics - Over 86% of product prices increased on a month-over-month basis, with only EVA prices declining, indicating a general upward trend in product pricing despite the lag in cost transmission [2][5] - The price index changes for the refining-olefin route (1.89%) outpaced the comprehensive refining (1.43%) and refining-aromatic (1.24%) routes, highlighting a disparity between profit and price changes [3] Industry Outlook - The overall decline in refining profits reflects a common challenge faced by downstream industries during periods of rapid crude oil price increases, characterized by "input" cost shocks [5] - The recovery of refining profits will depend not only on crude oil price trends but also on the ability of downstream demand to effectively absorb and transmit cost pressures [5]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong rebound in prices, with the basic chemical index rising by 12.72% year-to-date as of January 30, driven by supply-side maintenance, recovering export demand, and policy-driven structural tightness [1] - Aromatic products have shown significant price increases, with pure benzene prices in East China rising by 18.3% and styrene by 15.5% in January [1] - The price surge is attributed to multiple factors, including rising international oil prices, unexpected maintenance of chemical facilities, and a favorable market outlook for low-valuation chemical products [1] Group 2 - PX social inventory is expected to decrease rapidly starting in the second half of 2025, with a projected drop to 1.67 million tons by the end of 2025, supporting PX spot price increases [2] - The price of caprolactam has also rebounded, with prices rising from 9,325 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton in January, driven by reduced industry operating rates [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from rising core raw material prices and new export tax regulations, leading to price increases for products like glyphosate [2] Group 3 - The pesticide industry is undergoing supply-side structural reforms driven by policy changes, including the implementation of a new registration policy and the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products [3] - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with stricter standards for energy consumption, carbon emissions, and safety processes expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong rebound in prices since 2026, driven by supply-side adjustments, recovering export demand, and policy-driven structural tightness, indicating a shift from capacity expansion to high-quality development in the sector [1]. Price Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the core products in the aromatic chemical sector have seen significant price increases, with pure benzene rising from 5,290 CNY/ton to 6,260 CNY/ton (an increase of 18.3%) and styrene from 6,950 CNY/ton to 8,025 CNY/ton (an increase of 15.5%) [2]. - Other products like phenol, toluene, and ortho-xylene have also experienced price increases ranging from 6% to 9% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in PX social inventory, which fell to 1.67 million tons by the end of 2025, has supported the price increase of PX due to a low inventory and high PTA operating rates [3]. - The price of caprolactam has also rebounded, with prices increasing from 9,325 CNY/ton to 9,600 CNY/ton, driven by a decrease in industry operating rates to 68.9% and proactive production cuts by several companies [3]. Policy Impact - The agricultural chemical sector is undergoing supply-side structural reforms driven by new policies, including the "one certificate, one product" registration policy effective January 1, 2026, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity and enhance industry concentration [4]. Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is emerging from a prolonged downturn, with the chemical PPI experiencing negative growth for 38 consecutive months as of November 2025 [5]. - Positive signals, such as rising oil prices and a contraction in new industry projects, suggest a potential turning point for the chemical sector, with expectations for a shift from scale expansion to high-quality growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the recovery, the chemical industry faces challenges, including cautious inventory replenishment by downstream companies and potential supply threats from new overseas capacities [6]. - Overall, the industry is moving away from a state of cost collapse and overcapacity, with the early success of aromatics and agricultural chemicals indicating the potential for improved profitability and valuation in the sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like hydrochloric acid and liquid chlorine have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are expected to benefit from declining raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected, indicating potential investment opportunities [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report highlights significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%) and natural gas (8.68%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that may enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, and suggests specific companies for investment [22]. Market Performance - The report notes that the chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with varying results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - It recommends monitoring companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices, which in turn affect the chemical industry [23][24]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11].