证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 09 月 08 日 浙江龙盛（600352.SH） 公司染料产产销平稳增长，房地产业务将逐步兑现 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 15,303 | 15,884 | 17,237 | 18,414 | 19,436 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -27.9 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 5.6 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,534 | 2,030 | 2,104 | 2,334 | 2,443 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -48.9 | 32.4 | 3.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | | ROE（%） | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.75 | | P/E（倍） | 21.7 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 14.3 | 13.6 | | P/B ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company is positioned at the bottom of the market, awaiting recovery, with its leading advantages becoming more pronounced [1][5] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.505 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.84% to 928 million yuan [3][4] - The dye industry remains competitive, with domestic overcapacity leading to relatively low sales prices [3][5] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the average price of reactive dyes was 22.7 yuan/kg, up 2.4 yuan/kg year-on-year, while the price of disperse dyes decreased to 17.5 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][4] - The company’s sales expenses decreased by 7.3% to 340 million yuan, while management expenses increased by 11.17% to 429 million yuan [4] - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company's contract liabilities increased by 59.47% year-on-year to 11.593 billion yuan, mainly due to significant pre-sale amounts from its real estate subsidiary [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on direct sales in the dye sector and maintaining its distribution business, which has led to a stable growth in market share, with sales volume slightly increasing to 115,400 tons [5] - In the intermediate products sector, the company has managed to maintain stable production and sales despite industry challenges, achieving sales of 49,500 tons [5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 17.324 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to reach 2.097 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 16 [6][8] - For the years 2026 and 2027, revenue is expected to grow to 19.989 billion yuan and 20.846 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.445 billion yuan and 2.552 billion yuan respectively [6][8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is entering a new phase of capital expenditure, with a focus on the rebalancing of supply and demand following the release of production capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][6] - The report indicates that the bottom of the cycle is becoming clearer, with potential price increases for chemical products driven by demand recovery and supply stability in the second half of the year [2][6] Industry Overview - The current cycle has reached its tail end, with a total of 12 quarters of decline since Q3 2022, following a 7-quarter expansion from Q4 2020 to Q2 2022 [10][12] - The report outlines that the chemical industry has experienced three significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the latest cycle characterized by a demand-driven recovery followed by a supply-side pressure [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively low valuations, such as sucralose (recommended: Jinhe Industrial), pesticides (recommended: Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares), and MDI (recommended: Wanhua Chemical) [3][4] - It highlights the importance of domestic demand in countering tariff impacts, recommending companies in refrigerants and fertilizers [3][4] - The report identifies investment opportunities in sectors with upcoming capacity releases, such as organic silicon (recommended: Xin'an Chemical) and spandex [3][4] Price and Profitability Trends - The report notes that many sub-industry product prices remain at historical lows, with specific prices for spandex, PA6, and other fibers at 0%, 4%, and 5% of historical levels respectively [28] - It mentions that the chemical industry has seen a slight recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, although the overall performance remains under pressure [27][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the global chemical capital expenditure is on a downward trend, with domestic companies experiencing a slowdown in investment while still facing significant pressure to convert projects into fixed assets [22][32] - It also states that both domestic and international markets are entering a replenishment phase in 2025, which may influence inventory levels and pricing strategies [35][36]

浙江龙盛集团股份有限公司 提醒：请将手机调至振动 2025年第一次临时股东大会 会 议 资 料 二O二五年九月九日 目 录 一、程序文件 | 1、大会会议议程 2 | | --- | | 2、大会会议须知 4 | 二、提交股东审议表决的议案 | 1、《2025年度中期利润分配的预案》 5 | | --- | | 2、《关于取消监事会并修订公司<章程>的议案》 6 | | 3、《关于修订公司<股东会议事规则>的议案》 38 | | 4、《关于修订公司<董事会议事规则>的议案》 39 | | 5、《关于修订公司<独立董事工作规则>的议案》 40 | | 6、《关于修订公司<关联交易决策规则>的议案》 41 | 第 1页 共 41 页 浙江龙盛 2025 年第一次临时股东大会会议资料 浙江龙盛集团股份有限公司 2025年第一次临时股东大会议程 大会召开时间： 现场会议召开时间：2025年9月9日下午14：30时 网络投票时间：2025年9月9日上午9：30-11：30，下午13：00-15：00 大会召开地点：公司办公大楼四楼多功能厅 大会主持人：公司董事长阮伟祥先生 ----大会介绍---- ----会议议案报告 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 list of China's top 500 private enterprises shows Hangzhou's strong performance with 38 companies listed, an increase of 2 from the previous year, maintaining the highest number of listed companies among all cities for 23 consecutive years [1] - Hangzhou's companies account for 7.60% of the national total and 35.51% of Zhejiang province's 107 companies [1] - In the manufacturing sector, 29 Hangzhou companies made it to the top 500, while 13 companies were listed in the service sector, both leading among cities nationwide [1] Group 2 - The revenue threshold for entering the top 500 private enterprises was set at 27.578 billion yuan, with three Hangzhou companies in the top ten: Alibaba (98.1767 billion yuan), Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group (65.8602 billion yuan), and Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (57.4826 billion yuan) [2] - Other notable companies from Hangzhou include Zhejiang Hengyi Group (45.18 billion yuan), Wanxiang Group (21.3825 billion yuan), Ant Group (17.7788 billion yuan), and others, showcasing a diverse range of industries [2] - New entrants to the list include Hangzhou Qingyun Holding Group and Wanxiang San Nong Group, indicating a growth in both quantity and quality of private enterprises in Hangzhou [2] Group 3 - Geely's new energy vehicle manufacturing base in Hangzhou produces a vehicle every 90 seconds, highlighting the city's role in the advanced manufacturing cluster [3] - The success of Hangzhou's private enterprises reflects the city's resilient economy and the effectiveness of policies aimed at optimizing the business environment [3] - The city plans to implement the "365 Action Plan" to further support the growth of private enterprises, focusing on enhancing the overall strength and service capabilities of the private economy [3][4] Group 4 - Hangzhou aims for the private economy's added value to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan, emphasizing the city's commitment to strengthening its private sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Longsheng, a leading dye manufacturer in China, reported a decline in revenue and a mixed performance in net profit, raising concerns about its financial health amid significant acquisitions and long-term urban renewal projects [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhejiang Longsheng achieved revenue of 6.505 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.47% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 928 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.84% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 583 million yuan, down 9.54% year-on-year [1]. - Short-term borrowings increased to approximately 9.053 billion yuan, up 14.26% from the end of 2024 [2]. - The company reported an increase in accounts receivable and notes payable, indicating a strategy to manage liquidity risks [2]. Business Segments - Zhejiang Longsheng's main profits stem from traditional manufacturing, particularly in dyes and intermediates, while it has also ventured into real estate, focusing on urban renewal projects in Shanghai [1][3]. - The company has invested over 30 billion yuan in real estate, with significant projects including Huaxing New City and the Bo Mao Plaza [5][6]. Urban Renewal Projects - The urban renewal projects undertaken by Zhejiang Longsheng are characterized by long capital return cycles, which have led to increased financial pressure [4][6]. - The company has established a policy response mechanism to monitor macroeconomic policies and adjust project operations accordingly [5][6]. - The real estate segment's asset proportion is high, and the company faces potential impacts from national macro-control policies [5]. Financial Risks - The company's real estate subsidiary has reported losses, contributing to a rise in contract liabilities to approximately 11.593 billion yuan, up from about 7.270 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [6]. - The asset-liability ratio of Shanghai Shengnuo, the parent company of Longsheng Bay and Huaxing New City, stands at 88.68%, exceeding the industry average [6][7]. - High inventory levels have been maintained, with inventory reported at approximately 29.469 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Longsheng's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 increased by 2.84% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on domestic dye prices, while sales growth in key products compensated for price declines, leading to profit enhancement [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company's main business includes textile chemicals focused on dyes and auxiliaries, as well as intermediates primarily based on para-phenylenediamine and para-phenol [1] - Dye business: Sales reached 115,400 tons in H1, a year-on-year increase of 0.79%, with a focus on developing direct sales and maintaining distribution channels for stable sales growth [1] - Intermediate business: Sales were 49,500 tons in H1, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company aims to become a comprehensive service provider for specialty chemicals through a dual approach of independent research and strategic acquisitions [1] - Forecasted net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.07 billion, 2.21 billion, and 2.39 billion respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 17.0, 15.9, and 14.7 times [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

2025 年 08 月 26 日 券 研 究 报 告 25H1 染料销量增长，持续巩固纺织用化学品龙 头地位 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：覃前 S1050124070019 qinqian@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-08-26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 10.82 | | 总市值（亿元） | 352 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3253 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3253 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 8.89-10.83 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 240.44 | 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 浙江龙盛 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《浙江龙盛（600352）：技术筑 基绿色智造，全链协同驱动全球增 长》2025-04-18 2、《浙江龙盛（600352）：染料龙 头静待行业复苏，房地产项目稳步 推进》2024-02-22 —浙江龙盛（600352.SH）公司事件点评报告 浙江龙盛发布 202 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 6.505 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 928 million yuan, representing an increase of 25.63 million yuan compared to the same period last year, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.84% [1] - Operating cash flow increased to 4.162 billion yuan, up by 2 billion yuan from the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 92.48% [1] Profitability Metrics - The latest gross profit margin stands at 29.80%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points from the previous quarter and up by 1.87 percentage points year-on-year, indicating two consecutive quarters of growth [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 2.69%, which is an increase of 0.02 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] Shareholder Information - The company has a total of 118,700 shareholders, with the top ten shareholders holding 1.324 billion shares, accounting for 40.70% of the total share capital [4] - The largest shareholder is Ruan Weixiang, holding 13.09% of the shares, followed by Ruan Shuilong with 11.98% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Longsheng (600352) reported a mixed financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability metrics despite overall revenue challenges [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.505 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.46% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 928 million yuan, an increase of 2.84% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 3.27 billion yuan, down 5.71% year-on-year, while net profit for the quarter was 532 million yuan, a decline of 24.51% year-on-year [1]. - Gross margin improved to 29.8%, up 6.69% year-on-year, and net margin increased to 16.14%, up 9.45% year-on-year [1]. - Total operating expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 714 million yuan, accounting for 10.97% of revenue, a decrease of 5.44% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) was 0.29 yuan, a slight increase of 0.28% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Debt Analysis - Cash flow from operating activities saw a significant increase of 92.48%, attributed to higher pre-sale amounts received by the real estate subsidiary [3]. - The company’s cash assets are reported to be healthy, with a cash asset to current liabilities ratio of 62.08% [6]. - Long-term borrowings decreased by 80.92% due to repayments made during the period [3]. Investment Insights - Analysts expect the company's performance for 2025 to reach 2.044 billion yuan, with an average EPS forecast of 0.63 yuan [4]. - The company has seen varied fund holdings, with the largest being the Xingzheng Global Xinyue Mixed Fund, which increased its stake [5]. Accounts Receivable and Inventory Concerns - Accounts receivable have reached 108.59% of profit, indicating potential collection issues [6]. - Inventory levels are high, with inventory to revenue ratio at 185.53%, suggesting possible overstocking or slow turnover [6].