Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Despite low industry demand, the company demonstrates strong profitability resilience [6] - The company reported a revenue of 25.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.05 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year [2][6] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, but a 32% decrease in net profit compared to the same quarter last year [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 25.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30% and a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% increase [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, which is a 17% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 32% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Product Performance - The company experienced an increase in sales volume for key products such as new energy materials (+19%), fertilizers (+41%), organic amines (+15%), and acetic acid and derivatives (+148%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] - In Q3 2024, the sales volume for these products showed mixed results, with new energy materials (+4%), fertilizers (+35%), organic amines (+14%), and acetic acid and derivatives (+149%) year-on-year, but some products saw a decline in sales volume compared to the previous quarter [6] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company maintains a competitive edge in urea production costs, which are lower than gas-based and most coal-based processes, allowing it to sustain profitability despite price declines [6] - As of Q3 2024, the company has ongoing capital expenditures of approximately 4.4 billion yuan, representing 15% of fixed assets, focusing on coal gasification and amine industry chain projects [6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 31.8 billion yuan, 35.7 billion yuan, and 38.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 12%, and 8% [6] - The projected net profits for the same years are 3.9 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9%, 29%, and 11% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 25.18 billion yuan (YoY +30.16%) and a net profit of 3.049 billion yuan (YoY +4.16%) [3] - The third quarter saw a decline in profitability due to annual maintenance and narrowing product price spreads, indicating that profits are gradually bottoming out [3] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while continuing to invest in high-end chemical projects, which are expected to contribute to profits by the end of 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.205 billion yuan (YoY +17.43%, QoQ -8.81%) and a net profit of 0.825 billion yuan (YoY -32.27%, QoQ -28.84%) [3] - The annual maintenance plan in Q3 affected production, leading to a decline in output for various products [3] - The average price spreads for key products fell to historical lows, impacting the gross margin, which decreased by 3.03 percentage points to 17.56% [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch several high-end chemical projects, including a 200,000-ton/year BDO project and a 100,000-ton/year anhydride project, which are expected to start contributing to profits in late 2024 [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 3.95 billion, 4.86 billion, and 6.04 billion yuan respectively [3] Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 13X, 10X, and 8X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [3] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.645X, which is below the historical average of 2.521X, suggesting an absolute margin of safety [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.05 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.06 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 820 million yuan, down 32.3% year-on-year and down 28.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The company released its Q3 2024 report, showing a revenue of 82.0 billion yuan for Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 17.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.8%. The net profit for Q3 was 8.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.8% [3][4]. Event Commentary - The third quarter faced challenges due to maintenance and a downturn in market conditions, leading to a decline in quarterly performance. The prices of key products such as urea, DMF, and others saw significant quarter-on-quarter decreases. The company conducted maintenance from August 10 to August 30, impacting the sales of several products. The overall gross margin for Q3 was 17.6%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the net margin was 10.9%, also down 3.0 percentage points [3][4]. Market Outlook - The market prices for key products are expected to continue facing pressure due to weak terminal demand and the release of new industry capacities. However, there are optimistic signs for recovery in urea prices supported by stable agricultural demand and industrial needs. The company is positioned at the bottom of the cycle, with potential improvements expected as terminal demand recovers and outdated capacities are phased out [4][5]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is actively expanding into downstream fine chemical new materials to enhance product value. New projects in the Jingzhou base are expected to support long-term growth. The company has a strong production engineering capability and cost advantages, which are anticipated to mitigate operational fluctuations. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.76 billion yuan, 4.34 billion yuan, and 4.89 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by planned maintenance, but this does not alter its long-term investment value [4] - Despite a decline in product price spreads and maintenance affecting Q3 results, the outlook remains positive due to expected macroeconomic recovery and new capacity additions [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 25.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.05 billion yuan, up 4.16% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 8.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.43%, but a net profit of 825 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 32.27% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.84% [4] - The planned maintenance in August is expected to impact revenue by approximately 500 million yuan [2][4] Product Price Trends - In Q3 2024, the average prices for key products such as urea, acetic acid, and others saw significant declines, with average price changes of -9.26% for urea and -10.42% for acetic acid [2] - The average price spread for multiple products decreased significantly, with some products experiencing declines of over 20% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand, with new production capacities projected to contribute to revenue starting in 2025 [5] - The company plans to build additional production facilities, including 520,000 tons of molten urea and 200,000 tons of BDO, which are expected to enhance performance in the coming years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][24] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 25.18 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.05 billion yuan, up 4.16% year-on-year [2][3] - The third quarter revenue was 8.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.43% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 825 million yuan, down 32.27% year-on-year and 28.84% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company is facing challenges due to product price declines and maintenance impacts, but the second phase of the Jingzhou project is progressing steadily [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.205 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 1.441 billion yuan, and a net profit of 825 million yuan. The gross margin was 17.56%, down 6.77 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 10.88%, down 6.54 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.18 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.15%, down 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Market Data - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 48.67 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 48.49 billion yuan. The stock has a 52-week price range of 19.83 to 31.90 yuan [3][4] - The company’s stock performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 12.5% over the past month, 7.8% over the past three months, and 27.2% over the past year [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 33.4 billion yuan, 39.1 billion yuan, and 44.5 billion yuan, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 3.96 billion yuan, 4.99 billion yuan, and 6.19 billion yuan for the same years [7][24] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable growth outlook [7][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.05 billion yuan, up 4.16% year-on-year [2]. - The sales volume and revenue have shown steady growth, particularly in acetic acid and its derivatives, with significant increases in various business segments [2]. - The company is advancing its construction projects and improving operational efficiency, with a focus on cost reduction and process optimization [2]. - Future net profits are projected to be 4.00 billion yuan, 4.63 billion yuan, and 5.32 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.89, 2.18, and 2.51 yuan [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 251.80 billion yuan, with a net profit of 30.49 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 30.59 billion yuan [2]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 82.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.43%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.81% [2]. - The sales volume of new energy materials reached 1.90 million tons, up 18.81% year-on-year, while chemical fertilizers saw a sales volume of 3.20 million tons, increasing by 40.73% [2]. Business Segments - The acetic acid and its derivatives segment experienced a remarkable sales volume increase of 148.47% year-on-year, with revenue growth of 134.46% [2]. - The organic amine series products had a sales volume of 43.54 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.52%, although revenue declined by 5.78% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits increasing steadily over the next three years [2][3]. - The current price of the stock is 23.50 yuan, with a PE ratio forecasted to decrease from 12x in 2024 to 9x in 2026, indicating potential for price appreciation [4][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a long-term growth outlook remaining positive. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 25.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 3.83 billion, 4.64 billion, and 5.59 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment in product price assumptions due to a large supply-side capacity release in the market [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 27.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 10%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 32.92 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 21% [1]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 3.58 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year, with a forecasted increase of 7% to 3.83 billion yuan in 2024 [1][3]. Earnings Per Share and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 1.68 yuan, with an expected increase to 1.80 yuan in 2024. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 12.7 for 2024, decreasing to 8.7 by 2026 [1][3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.7 in 2023 to 1.2 in 2026, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [1][2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned as the largest producer of bicarbonate in China, with a dual-base layout in Dezhou and Jingzhou, enhancing its regional complementary capabilities in products and services [1][3]. - The report notes that the company is facing pressure from a relaxed supply-demand environment, which has led to a narrowing of product price differentials [1][2].

华鲁恒升（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600426） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华鲁恒升（600426）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 季度检修影响，持续优化成本+加速转型 目标价：32.62 元 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 251.80 亿元，同比+30.16%； 实现归母净利润 30.49 亿元，同比+4.16%；实现扣非净利润 30.59 亿元，同比 +5.35%。其中 Q3 实现营收 82.05 亿元，同比/环比+17.43%/-8.81%；实现归母 净利润 8.25 亿元，同比/环比-32.27%/-28.84%;实现扣非净利润 8.22 亿元，同 比/环比-32.08%/-29.59%，Q3 业绩符合市场预期。 从经营数据看：2024Q3 公司新能源新材料相关产品/化学肥料/有机胺系列产 品/醋酸及衍生品四个板块收入分别为 39.98/16.04/6.10/10.09 亿元，同比分别8.0%/+26.1%/-7.4%/+114.7%，环比分别-11.5%/-12.7%/-5.3%/-4.7%；销量分别 为 66.5/103.4/15.3/37.1 万吨，同比+4.2%/+35.3%/+14.1%/+149.4%，环比分别 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, but due to a decline in the price of some products, the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to 1.83, 2.38, and 2.67 CNY respectively [2]. - The target price remains at 26.84 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 11.29 for 2025 [2]. - The company reported Q3 revenue of 25.18 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit of 3.05 billion CNY, up 4.16% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 8.205 billion CNY, which is a 17.43% increase year-on-year but a 8.81% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 17.56%, down 6.77 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 10.88%, down 6.54 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 35.953 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.876 billion CNY [3]. Product Performance - Fertilizer sales in Q3 reached 1.03 million tons, a 35.27% increase year-on-year, while the price per ton was 1,551 CNY, up 6.78% year-on-year [2]. - Organic amines saw sales of 152,600 tons, a 14.05% increase year-on-year, but the price per ton decreased by 18.88% year-on-year to 3,997 CNY [2]. - Acetic acid sales surged by 149% year-on-year to 370,000 tons, with a price drop of 13.91% year-on-year to 2,721 CNY per ton [2]. - The new materials segment sold 665,000 tons, a 4.25% increase year-on-year, with a price decrease of 11.71% year-on-year to 6,012 CNY per ton [2]. Future Outlook - The company’s Jingzhou base has significantly contributed to revenue, with the first phase generating 3.765 billion CNY in revenue and 542 million CNY in net profit [2]. - The second phase of the Jingzhou project is under construction and is expected to be operational by the end of 2024, which includes integrated projects and material optimization [2]. - The company anticipates improvements in profitability as macroeconomic stimulus policies are implemented, and prices for certain products may gradually recover [2].