Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the basic chemical industry, particularly focusing on oxalic acid [5]. Core Insights - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise due to the growth in high-density lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) in the downstream market, presenting an upward opportunity for the industry [3][26]. - Key players in the oxalic acid market include Hualu Chemical (600426, Buy) and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy), with other notable mentions being Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Fengyuan Co., Ltd. (002805, Not Rated), and Jinmei Technology (600844, Not Rated) [3][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Battery Leaders Increasing Investment in Oxalic Acid-Based High-Density LiFePO4 - The report highlights the strategic moves by leading battery manufacturers, such as CATL, to enhance their supply chain security for high-density LiFePO4, indicating a structural opportunity in the industry despite the overall market moving towards commoditization [12][8]. 2. Advantages of Oxalic Acid-Based LiFePO4 in High-Density Applications - Oxalic acid-based LiFePO4 demonstrates superior performance and process advantages, particularly in high-density applications, which are driven by the increasing demand for fast-charging and high-capacity energy storage solutions [16][22]. - The report notes that the demand growth rate for oxalic acid-based LiFePO4 is expected to surpass that of traditional LiFePO4, indicating a gradual increase in market penetration [16]. 3. Oxalic Acid Expected to Experience Upward Market Trends - The report anticipates a tightening supply-demand dynamic for oxalic acid, driven by its primary applications in rare earth, pharmaceuticals, and the rapidly growing renewable energy sector [26][27]. - The projected increase in production capacity for oxalic acid is limited in the near term, which is expected to contribute to a favorable market environment [39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading oxalic acid producers such as Hualu Chemical and Wankai New Materials, while also considering other related companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Jinmei Technology for their potential growth [3][48].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Wanhua Chemical has announced price increases for MDI and TDI in certain regions, reflecting a positive trend in pricing within the polyurethane sector [1]. - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 19,186, 14,721, and 14,693 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -293, +93, and +234 CNY/ton compared to the previous week [3]. - The report provides detailed insights into various segments of the chemical industry, including polyurethane, oil and gas, and coal chemical sectors, with specific price movements and profit margins outlined for each segment [3][13]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 19,186, 14,721, and 14,693 CNY/ton, with respective profit margins of 6,149, 2,684, and 2,769 CNY/ton [3][17][19]. Oil and Gas Sector - The average prices for ethane, propane, and coal are 1,324, 4,166, and 522 CNY/ton, with changes of -102, -122, and -8 CNY/ton respectively [3][23][28]. - The average price for polyethylene is reported at 6,933 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 113 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][31]. Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,346, 1,702, 3,739, and 2,422 CNY/ton, with respective profit margins of 331, 33, -396, and 225 CNY/ton [3][37][45][46]. Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA and VE are reported at 62.5 and 55.5 CNY/kg, with VE showing a 30% increase [3][53][59].

（大众新闻记者 陈晓婉 赵雅南） 这四家企业分别是，潍柴控股集团有限公司入选行业领军培育企业名单，华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司、浪潮电子信息产业股份有限公司、新风光电子科技 股份有限公司入选专业领军培育企业名单。 此外，22家入选"双百企业"名单、25家入选"科改企业"名单，数量在全国各省市中均居第二位。省属企业有3家进入世界500强，2023年以来新增制造业单 项冠军34家，独角兽企业2家，瞪羚企业61家，专精特新"小巨人"25家，一批企业实现从"跟跑对标"到"并跑创标"的转变，在行业内树立起标杆形象。 12月19日，山东省政府新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍山东省属国资国企深化改革、推动高质量发展情况。记者从发布会上获悉，截至目前，山东4家省属 国企入选国务院国资委世界一流行业领军培育企业和专业领军培育企业名单，数量在全国各省市中居第一位。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，2025年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低 景气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极 变化。展望2026年国内化工行业，供需格局有望改善，建议关注行业景气有望回升的子行业，如钛白 粉、部分农药品种、化纤、制冷剂等；资本开支和研发共同驱动中长期增长的龙头企业；受益于需求增 加或国产替代持续推进的部分高端化工新材料，如电子化工材料、高端陶瓷材料等。 从需求端来看，国内制造业需求弱复苏，新兴领域或带来增量；此外，大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换 新等具体政策，也有助于拉动汽车、家电产业链相关化工品的需求。因此国内部分化工子行业的供需格 局有改善趋势，看好钛白粉、部分农药品种、化纤、制冷剂等子行业的供需格局有望逐步好转。 (2)资本开支和研发共同驱动中长期增长的龙头企业。经历供给侧改革之后，国内化工行业的集中度已 经有了较大的提升。未来，受到环保、安全、能耗等政策限制，化工行业资本开支向龙头集聚，投资方 向主要是聚焦原有产品产能扩张、围绕产业链向下游高附加值产品延伸、或通过研发驱动向更多高壁垒 的精细化学品和新材料领域 ...

化工行业：行业有望底部回暖，供需格局 或迎积极变化 2025 年 12 月 18 日 看好/维持 化工 行业报告 ——化工行业 2026 年策略报告 | | | 投资摘要 我国化工行业景气有望底部回暖，行业供需格局预期改善。2025 年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低景 气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极变化。具体来说，供给 端化工行业投资增速持续放缓，反内卷政策引导行业自律，叠加海外老旧化工品产能退出力度加大，供给端压力有所减轻； 需求端传统需求弱复苏，新兴产业有望带来增量；库存端去库存周期结束，已现小幅补库迹象。综合来看，在行业供需格局 预期改善的背景下，我国化工行业景气有望边际改善。 展望 2026 年，随着化工品供需格局改善，以及原油、煤炭等大宗原材料价格回落、行业成本压力有所缓解，我们认为处于 中游的化工行业景气度有望改善，并迎来布局良机。我们建议重点关注以下三大投资方向： （1）供需格局有望改善、行业景气有望回升的子行业。结合前述我们对于国内化工供给和需求格局的分析，我们认为，从 供给端来看，受到行业竞争加剧、市场价格下行、投资回 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations of gradual recovery driven by global economic growth and demand increase [2][5][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side dynamics, noting the retreat of foreign investment and the slowdown of domestic capacity expansion, which may lead to a turning point for the industry [2][5][36] - Key recommendations include focusing on cyclical resilient and growth sectors such as industrial silicon, organic silicon, PTA, spandex, caprolactam, soda ash, and chlor-alkali, as well as high-demand products like refrigerants and potassium fertilizers [2][5][6] Demand Side Analysis - The chemical industry is closely tied to global economic performance, with a projected global GDP growth of 3.09% in 2026, driven mainly by developing countries like India [22][25] - China's GDP growth is expected to be 4.16% in 2026, indicating robust domestic demand [22][25] - Emerging sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive material consumption, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and energy storage capacity anticipated [27][29] Supply Side Dynamics - The report highlights the challenges faced by foreign chemical giants due to rising energy costs and increased competition, leading to significant profit declines [36][41] - Major foreign companies are closing high-cost production facilities in Europe, which may create opportunities for domestic players [36][41][47] - Domestic chemical companies are experiencing pressure on investment returns, leading to a slowdown in capital expenditure growth and a pause in new capacity plans [49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on cyclical resilient products and growth sectors, with specific attention to high-quality companies that possess competitive advantages [6][36] - The potential for price increases or stable prices with volume growth in bottom-tier products is emphasized, particularly in industrial silicon and organic silicon [6][36] - The report also identifies opportunities in the tire and civil explosives sectors, particularly as companies expand internationally [7][36] Emerging Opportunities - New material sectors, including humanoid robots and AI materials, are highlighted as areas of potential growth, driven by domestic policy support and the need for localized supply chains [8][36] - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic production capabilities in high-end materials due to international trade tensions [8][36]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 2.32% and currently up by 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Tianqi Lithium and Salt Lake Potash, have seen significant gains, with both rising over 7%, while other companies like Wanhua Chemical and Xingfa Group have increased by over 3% [1][2] - Lithium carbonate prices have reached a new high, increasing by 1,170 CNY to 97,100 CNY per ton, marking a five-day consecutive rise, with a total increase of 4,440 CNY in the last five days [2][3] Group 2 - The chemical sector still presents a favorable valuation, with the chemical ETF's underlying index price-to-book ratio at 2.33, which is relatively low compared to the past decade [3] - The demand for chemical products is expected to grow due to various industries, including real estate, automotive, and textiles, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on scale expansion to high-quality growth, aided by industry self-regulation and policy collaboration [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) provides an efficient way to invest in the chemical sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong market trends [4] - The ETF covers various sub-sectors within the chemical industry, including phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and lithium battery materials, providing a comprehensive investment opportunity [4]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, with the "anti-involution" trend expected to accelerate the optimization of the competitive landscape, driving an upward trend in industry prosperity. Leading companies are likely to see improvements in both profitability and valuation, with recommendations for companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, China Petroleum, Baofeng Energy, and New Hope Liuhe [3]. - The report highlights the importance of self-discipline in production cuts within sub-industries like polyester filament, agrochemicals, fluorochemicals, and organosilicon, recommending companies such as Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Lier Chemical, and others [3]. - The refining industry, currently at a cyclical low, is expected to benefit from the elimination of backward production capacity, leading to a rapid recovery in prosperity, with recommendations for China Petroleum, Hengli Petrochemical, and others [3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, with fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry showing a negative year-on-year growth for the first time in nearly five years as of June 2025. The total fixed assets of listed companies in the basic chemical industry reached 14,628.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56% [14][46]. - The construction of new projects has also seen a downturn, with the amount of ongoing projects decreasing by 15.11% year-on-year as of Q3 2025 [46]. Demand Side - Domestic demand is expected to be boosted by stimulus policies, while exports of chemical products continue to grow. The demand from downstream industries such as real estate, automotive, and textiles is showing positive trends [3][14]. - The resilience of chemical product exports is highlighted, with the export quantity index for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry reaching 122.40 as of September 2025 [3]. Global Industry Landscape - The report notes a shift in the global industrial landscape, with Chinese chemical companies enhancing their competitiveness. In 2023, China's chemical sales reached 2,238.1 billion euros, accounting for 43.1% of the global market [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in the global chemical industry, with many overseas chemical production capacities exiting the market due to high costs and aging facilities, thereby strengthening the competitive position of domestic companies [3]. Policy and Industry Self-Regulation - The "anti-involution" actions initiated in 2024, including self-regulation and production cuts by industry associations and leading companies, are expected to help restore product prices and profits [3]. - The report discusses various policies aimed at energy conservation and carbon reduction, which are likely to optimize supply and improve product structures in the petrochemical industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index shows a slight increase, with notable gains in key constituent stocks, reflecting a stable market environment amid industrial growth and potential policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 15, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.13%, with significant increases in stocks such as China Merchants Energy (up 4.77%) and Ping An Insurance (up 4.62%) [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund increased by 0.17%, with the latest price reported at 1.2 yuan [1]. Group 2: Industrial Growth - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, driven by advancements in the equipment manufacturing sector [1]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a robust growth of 7.7% in added value year-on-year, contributing 56.4% to the overall industrial growth [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - According to AVIC Securities, the market may remain stable towards the end of the year, with a focus on the impact of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan on global liquidity [1]. - Recommendations include a balanced allocation between dividend and technology styles, with attention to industries that may experience marginal catalysts, anticipating a "spring rally" [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index consists of 180 securities selected for their large market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies in the Shanghai market [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.13% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance [2].