供给优化，气势升腾——基础化工 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 化工行业供给端正经历显著变化，欧洲因成本压力产能出清，国内固定 资产投资增速放缓，叠加反内卷政策，部分子行业有望走出供需过剩局 面，改善利润。 中国化学品价格指数（CCPI）和长江化学品板块毛利率均处于历史较低 水平，表明行业正经历周期性波动，未来或迎来上升周期。IMF 预测 2026 年全球 GDP 增速约为 3.09%，中国为 4.2%，外需具备韧性。 新能源、储能、AI 基建等新兴领域对化工产品需求产生积极影响，如新 能源汽车产量高增长、全球储能装机量提升、AI 基建投资热情高涨，拉 动上游材料消费。 国内化工龙头企业上半年业绩同比回落，但海外企业回落速度更快，欧 洲关闭大量产能，中国市场份额显著提升，反内卷政策对治理无序竞争 和推动落后产能退出起到积极作用。 能耗双控及环保政策可能成为推动供给优化的重要抓手，通过限制新增 项目审批和加强现有项目监管来减少过剩产能，从而推动整个行业景气 回升。 Q&A 2026 年度化工行业的投资策略是什么？当前行业供给端发生了哪些变化？ 2026 年度化工行业的投资策略可以概括为"供给优化 ...

来源：中国能源网 中银证券近日发布化工行业周报：本周（12.22-12.28）国际油价持平，WTI原油期货价格收于56.74美 元/桶，收盘价周涨幅0.14%布伦特原油期货价格收于60.64美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅0.28%。宏观方面，根 据新华网消息，乌克兰总统泽连斯基称当地时间22日深夜至23日凌晨乌遭俄大规模袭击，多地能源设施 受损。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资建议 截至12月27日，SW基础化工市盈率（TTM剔除负值）为25.60倍，处在历史（2002年至今）76.58%分位 数；市净率为2.33倍，处在历史61.10%分位数。SW石油石化市盈率（TTM剔除负值）为13.17倍，处在 历史（2002年至今）37.56%分位数；市净率为1.28倍，处在历史36.98%分位数。今年以来，行业受关税 相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，十二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反 内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司与涨价背景下的部分新能 源材料公司。中长期推荐投资主线：1、政策加持下需求有望复苏，供给端持续优化，优秀龙头企业业 绩估值有望双提升。2、下游行业快速 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Hualu Hengsheng increased by 2.01% on December 29, reaching 31.47 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 201 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.31%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 66.818 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 49.42%, with a 5-day increase of 5.01%, a 20-day increase of 11.24%, and a 60-day increase of 24.48% [1] - Hualu Hengsheng's main business includes the production and sales of urea and methanol, with revenue composition as follows: 48.34% from new energy and new materials, 24.61% from chemical fertilizers, 10.82% from acetic acid and derivatives, 7.75% from other products, 7.33% from organic amines, and 1.15% from by-products and others [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Hualu Hengsheng was 44,000, a decrease of 16.59% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 19.90% to 48,213 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Hualu Hengsheng reported operating revenue of 23.552 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.374 billion CNY, down 22.14% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 8.965 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.775 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Global Research abc 24 December 2025 The chemical industry re-rated recently on enhanced self-discipline and price hikes. Based on our latest product price estimates, we raise 2025-27E earnings 1-5% and lift medium-term ROIC from 15% to 18%. Our new DCF-based (WACC unchanged at 8.6%) PT implies 16x 2026E PE. First Read Hualu-Hengsheng Product fundamentals set to benefit from chemical industry's anti-involution Caprolactam price bottoming out driven by recent anti-involution The market price of caprolactam w ...

Industry Overview - Nylon 66 (PA66) is recognized as the "crown jewel" of engineering plastics, characterized by its high crystallinity and excellent physical properties due to its symmetrical molecular structure [4][6][18] - The historical development of PA66 reflects significant advancements in synthetic materials, starting from its invention by DuPont in the 1930s to its strategic military applications during World War II and subsequent industrial expansion [8][12][14] - PA66's unique properties, such as high melting point (approximately 260°C), mechanical strength, self-lubrication, and chemical resistance, make it irreplaceable in various applications [18][20][21] Industry Positioning - The PA66 industry is transitioning from a "high premium monopoly" to a "self-controlled" model, as China has made significant breakthroughs in the production of key raw materials, particularly adiponitrile (ADN) [33] - The industry is now viewed as a symbol of China's chemical sector achieving high levels of self-reliance and independence [33] Supply Chain Analysis - The PA66 supply chain is characterized by high barriers to entry and significant global division of labor, with ADN being the critical intermediate that determines the industry's viability [40][41] - The supply chain exhibits a "sandglass" structure, with numerous participants upstream and a concentrated number of key players in the middle [43] - The production of ADN is dominated by a few global giants, and the technology involved is complex, leading to a historical monopoly [48][51] Market Dynamics - The global nylon 66 market has been historically dominated by a few companies, with pricing power held by major players like Invista, Ascend, and BASF [63][65] - The market is experiencing a shift, with China's domestic production capacity rapidly increasing, moving from a net importer to a potential net exporter of nylon 66 [79] - The demand for nylon 66 is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the Asian market, driven by applications in automotive and consumer goods [75][76] Technological Advancements - Continuous polymerization processes and vertical reactors are becoming the industry standard, enhancing efficiency and reducing energy consumption [82][87] - The adoption of advanced technologies in production is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the global market [105][107] Downstream Applications - The consumption structure of nylon 66 is highly concentrated, with engineering plastics accounting for approximately 57% and synthetic fibers for about 40% of the market [109]

证券之星消息，12月25日农化制品板块较上一交易日上涨0.44%，扬农化工领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3959.62，上涨0.47%。深证成指报收于13531.41，上涨0.33%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600096 | 云天化 | 2.39 Z | 13.04% | -3988.52万 | -2.18% | -1.99 Z | -10.86% | | 600426 华鲁恒升 | | 6331.58万 | 11.65% | -2601.18万 | -4.78% | -3730.40万 | -6.86% | | 600331 宏达股份 | | 5004.55万 | 6.83% | -157.61万 | -0.22% | -4846.94万 | -6.62% | | 002250 联化科技 | | 4104.38万 | 8.53% | -1938.83万 | -4.0 ...

化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7 条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映 相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学 (600309)、盐湖股份(000792)、天赐材料(002709)、藏格矿业(000408)、巨化股份(600160)、华鲁恒升 (600426)、多氟多(002407)、恒力石化(600346)、宝丰能源(600989)、云天化(600096)，前十大权重股合 计占比45.41%。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接(A：014942；C：014943；I：022792) 多重利好催化下，化工板块持续走高，化工ETF(159870) 实现4连涨，最新价报0.8元，创年内新高，近5 个交易日内合计"吸金"4.73亿元。 华泰证券指出，由于2024-25年国内PX产能增长按下"暂停键"，而下游PTA需求稳步提升，叠加全球第 二大PX供应国韩国近期装置波动，国内及亚洲市场PX价格价差显 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hualu Hengsheng's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 44.49%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 24, Hualu Hengsheng's stock rose by 2.01%, reaching 30.43 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 301 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.47%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 646.10 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 3.75% increase over the last five trading days, a 12.25% increase over the last 20 days, and a 22.70% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hualu Hengsheng reported a revenue of 23.552 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.374 billion CNY, down 22.14% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hualu Hengsheng was 44,000, a decrease of 16.59% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 19.90% to 48,213 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 8.965 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.775 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 37.98 million shares, a decrease of 38.3747 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The nylon 66 (PA66) industry is at a pivotal turning point in 2024, driven by domestic technological breakthroughs and the planning of million-ton production capacity, which is expected to dissolve the long-standing foreign monopoly on key raw materials like adiponitrile [2]. Industry Overview - Nylon 66, known as the "king of engineering plastics," is a semi-crystalline thermoplastic resin produced from adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine, characterized by its symmetrical molecular structure that provides high crystallinity and excellent physical properties [4][6]. - The historical development of PA66 reflects significant advancements in synthetic materials, starting from its invention by DuPont in the 1930s to its strategic military applications during World War II, and its subsequent industrial expansion [8][12][14]. - PA66's unique properties, such as high melting point (approximately 260°C), mechanical strength, self-lubrication, and chemical resistance, make it irreplaceable in various applications [18][19][20][21]. Industry Positioning - The PA66 industry is classified as both technology-intensive and capital-intensive, previously dominated by global giants like Invista, Ascend, and BASF. However, with China's advancements in adiponitrile technology, the industry is transitioning from a "noble plastic" to a more generalized engineering plastic [33]. Supply Chain Analysis - The nylon 66 supply chain is characterized by a "sandglass" structure, with numerous participants upstream and a highly concentrated midstream focused on adiponitrile production, which is critical for PA66 manufacturing [40][43]. - Adiponitrile is the key intermediate in the production of nylon 66, and its production technology is complex, with only a few companies globally mastering commercial production [48]. - The global supply landscape for adiponitrile has shifted from a triopoly dominated by Invista, Ascend, and Solvay to a more competitive environment, with China's self-sufficiency in adiponitrile rapidly increasing [51]. Market Analysis - The global nylon 66 market has historically been oligopolistic, with pricing heavily influenced by raw material costs and supply disruptions. However, the market is evolving towards a more competitive landscape as domestic production stabilizes [63][64]. - China's nylon 66 industry is experiencing a significant capacity expansion, transitioning from a net importer to a potential global manufacturing hub, with projections indicating a rise in domestic production capacity to over 200,000 tons by 2027 [69][72]. - The demand for nylon 66 is expected to grow, particularly in the high-end textile market, as price reductions due to increased supply make it more competitive against alternatives like nylon 6 [75]. Technical Analysis - The production process of nylon 66 is shifting towards continuous polymerization methods, particularly using vertical reactors, which enhance efficiency and reduce energy consumption [82][97]. - Continuous polymerization allows for a more stable production process, minimizing quality fluctuations and improving overall yield, which is crucial for meeting the growing demand [90][101]. Downstream Application Analysis - The downstream consumption of nylon 66 is highly concentrated, with engineering plastics accounting for approximately 57% and synthetic fibers for about 40% of the market [109].

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，宁德时代(300750.SZ)对高压实铁锂供应链的重视度提升。草 铁法铁锂在高压实领域具备性能和工艺优势，该行认为草铁法铁锂的需求增速有望超过铁锂整体的需求 增速，行业渗透率也将逐步提升。整体而言，该行看好草酸在下游高压实密度磷酸铁锂需求增长的背景 下迎来景气的上行机会。看好华鲁恒升(600426.SH，买入)以及万凯新材(301216.SZ，买入)。 草铁法铁锂在高压实领域具备性能和工艺优势 东方证券主要观点如下： 草酸的主要下游为稀土、医药和新能源领域，随着草铁法铁锂产量近年的快速增长，新能源领域有望成 为草酸下游最大的应用领域。富临精工和鹏博新材当前新规划了共计55万吨草铁法铁锂产能(各是分两 期实施)，若明年只考虑第一期投产及提前备货原材料的需求及富临精工现有产能的持续爬坡，以草酸 单耗0.65测算，这些铁锂产能满产带来的草酸新增需求有望达到18万吨以上。而后续草酸主要的新增供 给基本集中在2026年底，明年仅天业汇合(新疆天业参股子公司)的二期3万吨和通辽金煤(金煤科技控股 子公司)的二期10万吨在上半年投产能够形成供给贡献。虽然这其中存在投产和爬坡的时间差， ...