事件评论 事件描述 公司发布2025 一季报，2025Q1 实现收入77.7 亿元（同比-2.6%，环比-14.1%），实现归属净利润7.1 亿 元（同比-33.7%，环比-17.2%），实现归属扣非净利润7.0 亿元（同比-34.2%，环比-13.3%）。 公司具备领先的生产工程化能力，产品具备显著的成本优势，德州本部与荆州基地拟投项目支撑未来发 展，多元化产品组合，一定程度上或将平移经营波动。预计2025-2027 年归属净利润分别为 37.2/41.6/47.0 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 1、下游需求恢复不及预期； 2、新项目进度低于预期。 一季度景气回落产品销量有所回落，季度业绩环比有所下滑。价格，公司主要产品25Q1市场价格环比 变化：尿素（-2.5%）、DMF（-1.7%）、己二酸（-2.1%）、醋酸（1.9%）、辛醇（-12.4%）、己内酰 胺（-3.8%）、尼龙6（-6.3%）、三聚氰胺（-10.7%）、DMC（-14.2%）、草酸（-6.5%）。销售， 24Q4 公司荆州基地52 万吨/年尿素产能投产放量，25Q1 有机胺系列产品、化学肥料、醋酸及衍生品、 新能源新材料相关产品销量 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million yuan, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter. Despite most product price spreads being at historical lows, the company's net profit only declined by 147 million yuan quarter-on-quarter, demonstrating strong performance resilience [6][8] - The company announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in future development, with a buyback amount not less than 200 million yuan and not exceeding 300 million yuan [8] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.275 billion, 5.003 billion, and 5.760 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.01, 2.36, and 2.71 yuan per share, leading to PE ratios of 10.0, 8.5, and 7.4 times respectively [6][9] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the average price of main products such as urea, acetic acid, and others showed a decline, with average prices of 1,727, 2,902, and 8,063 yuan per ton respectively, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease [7] - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E include projected revenues of 27.26 billion, 34.23 billion, 32.11 billion, 32.36 billion, and 32.62 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to grow from 3.576 billion to 5.760 billion yuan over the same period [9][11] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 20.9% in 2023A to 23.8% in 2027E, while the net margin is expected to rise from 13.3% to 18.2% [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.77 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 33.7% year-on-year and 17.2% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 700 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.3% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a decline in revenue and profit, with a revenue of 77.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.1 billion yuan. The gross margin was 16.3%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 percentage points, while the net margin remained stable at 9.9% [2][12]. Market Conditions - The market prices for key products in Q1 2025 showed varied changes, with urea decreasing by 2.5% and DMF by 1.7%. The company’s sales volume for organic amine series products, chemical fertilizers, and acetic acid saw significant quarter-on-quarter declines of 11.1%, 3.9%, and 20.7%, respectively [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations due to ongoing demand recovery and the release of new production capacity from the Jingzhou base. The company anticipates net profits of 3.72 billion yuan, 4.16 billion yuan, and 4.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 7.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million yuan, down 33.7% year-on-year [6] - The report highlights that product price differentials are at a bottom level, with seasonal factors impacting product shipments [6] - The company is expected to see gradual recovery in demand and cost pressures easing, with new projects contributing to growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 35.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.0% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 3.97 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 1.7% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.87 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 11 [2] Market Data - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 20.97 yuan, with a market capitalization of 44.44 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.4 and a dividend yield of 4.29% [3] Product and Cost Analysis - The report notes that the average price differentials for key products are at historical lows, with significant declines in raw material prices, easing cost pressures [6] - The company is expected to benefit from new high-end chemical projects coming online, enhancing its competitive edge [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure, with revenue of 7.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million yuan, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter. The decline in sales of organic amines and acetic acid significantly impacted revenue and profit [8][12] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to benefit from lower coal prices, which may reduce costs and improve performance in the future [8][12] - The company is actively advancing its construction projects, which are expected to provide new growth momentum [11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 77.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan year-on-year and 12.74 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. Gross profit was 12.71 billion yuan, down 4.75 billion yuan year-on-year and 0.95 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.07 billion yuan, down 3.58 billion yuan year-on-year and 1.47 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [8][12] - The company's sales volume for fertilizers reached 1.4533 million tons, an increase of 36.74% year-on-year but a decrease of 3.91% quarter-on-quarter. Organic amines and acetic acid saw significant declines in sales volume [8][12] Market Conditions - The average price of urea in Q1 2025 was 1,734 yuan/ton, down 22% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of acetic acid was 2,762 yuan/ton, down 8% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter [8][12] - The company’s main product prices are currently experiencing low volatility, but the significant drop in coal prices is expected to improve the company's performance in the coming quarters [10][12] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 37.5 billion yuan, 41.2 billion yuan, and 45.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.46 billion yuan, 5.01 billion yuan, and 5.72 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 10, 9, and 8 times [12][14] - The ongoing construction projects are expected to enhance the company's growth potential, supporting the positive outlook [11][12]

金融界4月28日消息，上证指数低开震荡，沪深300化工指数 (300化工，L11502)报2080.97点。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪深300 指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行 业。沪深300行业指数系列分别以进入各一级、二级、三级、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数， 形成沪深300行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，沪深300化工指数十大权重分别为：万华化学（23.25%）、盐湖股份（13.52%）、宝 丰能源（7.58%）、巨化股份（7.48%）、恒力石化（7.2%）、卫星化学（7.1%）、华鲁恒升 （6.86%）、藏格矿业（6.26%）、龙佰集团（6.04%）、荣盛石化（5.49%）。 从沪深300化工指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比56.54%、深圳证券交易所占比43.46%。 从沪深300化工指数持仓样本的行业来看，其他化学原料占比39.27%、聚氨酯占比23.25%、钾肥占比 19.79%、氟化工占比7 ...

华鲁恒升 (600426 CH) 煤炭成本延续改善，新项目逐步推进 证券研究报告 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 27 日│中国内地 | 农用化工 | 华鲁恒升于 4 月 25 日发布 25Q1 季报：Q1 实现营业收入 77.7 亿元，同比 -2.6%/环比-14%，归母净利润 7.07 亿元，同比-34%/环比-17%，扣非净利润 7.03 亿元，同比-34%/环比-13%。公司 25Q1 归母净利基本符合我们预期（7.0 亿元）。考虑公司煤化工规模优势，荆州基地效益较好，维持"买入"评级。 Q1 新能源板块销量有所增长，多数主营产品价格仍处低位 Q1 醋酸及衍生品销量同比-8%/环比-21%至 33.7 万吨，营收同比-16%/环比 -20%至 8.2 亿元，均价同比-9%/环比+1%至 2432 元/吨。Q1 新材料板块销 量同比+23%/环比+2%至 66.4 万吨，营收同比-1%/环比-9%至 37.5 亿元， 均价同比-20%/环比-11%至 5653 元/吨。Q1 有机胺板块销量同比-1%/环比 -2 ...

Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million yuan, down 33.65% year-on-year [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to the overall downturn in the chemical industry since the second half of 2021, characterized by intense competition and oversupply leading to price drops, exemplified by urea prices falling from over 2000 yuan/ton in 2024 to over 1800 yuan/ton currently [1] - External factors, such as US-China trade tariffs, have also impacted the company's performance by causing a decline in oil prices, which are closely linked to the prices of most chemical products [1] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to adjust production based on market demand and product profitability, aiming to increase the output of higher-margin products while reducing that of lower-margin ones to optimize resource allocation and enhance overall efficiency [2] - The company aims to maintain price control over products with significant market influence to sustain profitability [2] Industry Context - According to a report by China Galaxy Securities, the chemical industry is currently at a historical low point, with basic chemicals and petrochemicals experiencing year-on-year net profit declines of 6.2% and 22.4%, respectively [2] - The industry is expected to face weak demand due to domestic macroeconomic pressures and increasing external uncertainties, with the Brent crude oil price forecasted to average around 70 USD/barrel in 2025, potentially alleviating cost pressures [2] Company Background - The company is a major player in the chemical sector under Shandong Hualu Group, with total assets of approximately 45 billion yuan and a diverse product range across four main sectors [3] - Historical revenue figures show fluctuations, with revenues of 30.245 billion yuan in 2022, 27.260 billion yuan in 2023, and 34.226 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +13.10%, -9.87%, and +25.55%, respectively [3] - Net profits for the same years were 6.289 billion yuan, 3.576 billion yuan, and 3.903 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -13.50%, -43.14%, and +9.14% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to falling product prices, but the results were in line with expectations [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 7.772 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year and 14.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.33 yuan, down 33.7% year-on-year and 17.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in revenue was mainly attributed to a drop in average selling prices across key product categories, with significant decreases in prices for chemical fertilizers and organic amines [1] Market Trends - Most product price spreads are at historical low levels, with expectations for improved export demand for urea and oxalic acid [2] - Urea prices in Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 22%, while coal prices also decreased, impacting the price spread [2] - Urea exports from China fell significantly in 2024, but there is potential for recovery in 2025 as domestic supply remains ample [2] Operational Developments - The company is expanding its capacity and product categories while focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3] - As of Q1 2025, the company had ongoing construction projects valued at 4.883 billion yuan, indicating a slight increase from the end of 2024 [3] - New projects include the production of amide raw materials and integrated projects for BDO and NMP, aimed at enhancing future growth [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 3.660 billion yuan and 4.196 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 times for 2025 and 10.6 times for 2026, with a target price of 29.5 yuan indicating a potential upside of 40.7% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd., has released its first quarter report for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the financial data presented [2][7]. Financial Data Summary - The financial statements for the first quarter of 2025 have not been audited [3][5]. - The net profit from the merged entity before the merger was approximately 218.87 million yuan, compared to 237.66 million yuan in the previous period [5]. Shareholder Information - The company plans to repurchase shares using between 200 million yuan and 300 million yuan of its own or raised funds, pending approval at the 2024 annual general meeting [10]. - The announcement includes details about the top ten shareholders and their respective holdings [11][12]. Operational Data - The company disclosed key operational data for the first quarter, highlighting significant discrepancies between production and sales volumes for new energy materials due to internal usage of intermediate products [7][8].