行业研究丨深度报告丨化工 [Table_Title] 全球化工变局：东升西落，中国独占鳌头 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前全球化工产业正呈现清晰的东升西落大势：欧洲受高能源成本、碳约束与产业外迁影响， 传统优势持续收缩；北美维持稳定但增长乏力；中东依托原料成本快速崛起，却仍难成主流； 东南亚、印度产业链一体化薄弱。中国已稳居全球化工产能鳌头。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王明 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490521030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BVA881 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 全球化工变局：东升西落，中国独占鳌头 [Table_Summary2] 全球化工总览：中国引领，底部酝酿转机 2004 年到 2024 年，全球化工品销售额从 1.4 万亿增长至 5.0 万亿欧元，年均复合增速为 6.6%， 是同期全球 GDP 平均增速的 1 ...

盘面上，两市高开高走，化工概念板块上涨。相关ETF方面，化工ETF天弘（159133）标的指数盘 中涨3.24%，申购额达750万份；成交额达4176.96万元；换手率达1.49%。成分股中，川发龙蟒、云天化 涨停，和邦生物、兴发集团、博源化工、宏达股份、多氟多涨超5%，万华化学、鲁西化工、龙佰集团 等多股跟涨。 化工ETF天弘（159133）紧密跟踪细分化工指数，该指数近一年涨幅达56.38%，其行业配置主要包 括化学制品（26.18%）、农化制品（22.71%）、化学原料（14.01%）等，前五大成分股为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升。该ETF还配备了2只场外联接基金（A类：015896；C类： 015897）。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 消息面上，细分化工板块今日受到多重积极因素提振。其一，据国海证券、国盛证券等机构研报显 示，行业"反内卷"政策持续深化，推动聚酯、有机硅等多个子行业通过联合减产优化供给格局。其二， 产品价格层面出现积极信号，据百川盈孚及相关券商跟踪，分散染料关键中间体还原物价格显著上涨， 同时维生素E出口报价上调，TMP产品也因装置检修供给趋紧。其三，据申万宏源证券报 ...

化工行业ETF易方达（516570）一键打包石化产业龙头，管理费率+托管费率合计仅0.2%/年，助力投资 者低成本布局传统能源产业机会。 截至11：20，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨2.62%，创逾四年新高，权重股中，万华化学涨4.56%， 中国石油涨1.35%，中国石化涨1.37%，盐湖股份涨3.79%，中国海油跌0.48%，藏格矿业涨2.44%，巨化 股份涨2.04%，恒力石化涨1.18%，华鲁恒升涨3.66%，宝丰能源涨0.8%。截至2月24日，该指数近一年 上涨52.16%。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐，资金连续两日净流入，合计超 4900万，近20日"吸金"超14亿；该基金最新规模达17.94亿。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.c ...

化工板块迎来开门红，消息面上，2026年2月18日，美国宣布将磷和草甘膦列入战略资源。此外印度尿 素招标（印标）价格已创下阶段性新高，东海岸 CFR 512 美元/吨、西海岸 CFR 508 美元/吨，较 1 月招 标大涨约85 美元/吨，折合人民币约3500元/吨。 国金证券指出，油价上涨可能带动化工品涨价预期，而如果地缘风险溢价回落则行业成本压力下降，考 虑到国内未来产业反内卷的政策方向，有利于化工产业的长期格局优化及高质量发展，建议长期关注中 下游化工龙头企业。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接(A：014942；C：014943；I：022792)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 截至2026年2月24日 13:33，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)强势上涨3.50%，成分股和邦生物上涨 10.08%，云天化上涨10.01%，川发龙蟒上涨10.00%，兴发集团，扬农化工等个股跟涨。化工 ETF(159870)上涨3.64%，最新价报0.94元。 化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7 条指数组成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The European chemical industry is facing a systemic crisis due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy costs, coupled with stringent carbon emission and environmental policies, leading to a "death spiral" of high costs and low demand. This situation is expected to result in a wave of shutdowns in the basic olefins, aromatics, chlor-alkali, and liquid ammonia sectors over the next 3-5 years, significantly affecting the global supply-demand landscape [2] - In contrast, the Chinese chemical industry is positioned to absorb the market share vacated by Europe, benefiting from a virtuous cycle of capital expenditure, cost optimization, and demand growth. Chinese companies are expected to capitalize on two main opportunities: (1) domestic chemical leaders will benefit from the systematic exit of the European chemical industry; (2) domestic firms in sectors with high consumption/production shares in Europe will also gain from the local industry's exit [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as Sinopec, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Decline of European Chemical Industry - Europe has historically led the global chemical industry, but its market share has significantly declined from 16.4% in 2013 to 12.6% in 2023, while China's share increased from 34.0% to 43.1% during the same period [37][40] - The EU27 countries accounted for approximately 66% of the European chemical market, with Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands being the largest contributors [26] - The European chemical industry has seen a notable decrease in trade competitiveness, with exports dropping from 25% of global chemical exports in 2003 to 18% in 2023 [45] Section 2: Systemic Challenges in Europe - The European chemical industry is experiencing a significant decline in competitiveness due to high energy costs, stringent carbon policies, and regulatory burdens, leading to a lack of investment and innovation [90][92] - The energy cost for industrial users in the EU has more than doubled from 2008-2021 to 2022-2024, severely impacting the industry's profitability [106] - The industry is facing a wave of shutdowns, with approximately 20% of ethylene capacity expected to be closed over five years due to high operational costs and declining demand [78][84] Section 3: Opportunities for Chinese Chemical Industry - The Chinese chemical sector is benefiting from a favorable investment environment, with significant capital expenditures leading to optimized costs and increased demand [2] - Chinese companies are well-positioned to take over market share from Europe, particularly in sectors where European firms are exiting due to high costs and regulatory pressures [2] - The report highlights specific companies in China that are expected to thrive in this shifting landscape, indicating a strong potential for growth in the domestic chemical market [2]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is at the beginning of a new prosperity cycle globally, with Chinese chemical companies showing stronger profit foundations and elasticity due to past expansions and capital expenditures [5][11][29] - Focus on cyclical chemical products, particularly those with resource attributes and potential in the real estate chain [4][5] - The demand from major economies like China and the US is expected to improve, with China's GDP projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, growing at 5.0% year-on-year [5][22] Group 1: Global and Domestic Chemical Landscape - The global chemical landscape is improving, with China's chemical sector becoming more resilient [9][12] - China's share of the global chemical market has significantly increased from 13% in 2004 to 47% in 2024, indicating its growing importance in the global chemical industry [14][29] - The capital expenditure in the global chemical sector has paused, with many overseas chemical companies reducing production, which may benefit Chinese companies [14][16] Group 2: Resource Attributes in Chemical Products - Three main resource directions are emphasized: mineral resources (like phosphate and potash), indicator resources (such as pesticides and refrigerants), and channel resources (like compound fertilizers) [5][33] - China's phosphate reserves rank second globally, with a steady increase in demand driven by both traditional fertilizer needs and emerging sectors like lithium iron phosphate for batteries [33][36] - The supply of fertilizers is expected to contract in 2025, with production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate projected to decrease by 6.73% and 6.86% respectively [39] Group 3: Real Estate Chain Chemical Products - The market currently has low expectations for the recovery of demand in the real estate chain, but there is potential for significant improvement due to government stimulus policies [5][22] - The supply concentration of chemical products related to the real estate chain is gradually increasing, which may lead to faster and easier supply-demand improvements [5] Group 4: New Materials and Domestic Substitution - The report highlights the importance of domestic substitution and the development of new materials in line with China's strategic plans for emerging industries [7][8] - Key areas of focus include lubricating oil additives, semiconductor materials, and bio-based materials [7] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include Hualu Chemical, Xin Fengming, Yuntianhua, and others, focusing on those with strong market positions and innovative capabilities [7][8]

Group 1 - Chemical ETF rose by 2.10%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.01 percentage points [1] - PTA production cut confirmed by Xin Feng Ming, with 2.5 million tons of PTA capacity being taken offline, indicating a tightening supply which supports the recovery of PTA profit margins [1] - Gotion High-Tech signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with BASF to focus on next-generation solid-state battery technology, with expectations for small-scale production of all-solid-state batteries by CATL in 2027 [1] - Zhejiang Longsheng raised the price of disperse dyes by 2000 yuan/ton, marking a potential turning point in the industry due to supply discipline and cost anchoring [1] Group 2 - The 14th Five-Year Plan will promote carbon peak measures, with restrictions on high-energy-consuming products expected to be implemented, indicating a clearer turning point for the chemical industry [2] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in first-tier cities, which may lead to a gradual recovery in the industry, highlighting investment opportunities in the chemical real estate chain [2] - The CSI sub-industry chemical theme index (000813) rose by 2.32%, with significant gains in stocks such as Xinzhou Bang (up 8.16%) and Tongkun Co. (up 7.82%) [2] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index (000813) accounted for 44.82% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical and Yilong Co. [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong performance in the chemical sector, particularly in phosphates, fluorochemicals, and chemical raw materials, with the CSI sub-industry index rising by 2.91% as of February 11, 2026 [1] - The PC market is entering a new price increase cycle driven by a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic PC industry capacity utilization reaching a critical limit of 86% and no clear new capacity expected to come online in 2026 [1] - Major production facilities are undergoing maintenance, leading to a potential supply loss of 100,000 tons in the first half of the year, while upstream bisphenol A prices have risen from 7,500 CNY/ton to 7,950 CNY/ton in January [1] - The chemical industry is characterized as a typical cyclical sector, usually experiencing a five-year cycle of "profit upturn - capacity expansion - profit bottoming - capacity clearance/demand expectation improvement" [1] - The industry outlook is optimistic due to factors such as negative capital expenditure growth, anti-involution trends, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic demand expansion, indicating a "dawn" phase for the chemical sector [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical index include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Shares, and others, accounting for 44.82% of the total index [2] - The chemical ETF managed by Harvest (159129) closely tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical index, focusing on the new economic cycle under the "anti-involution" backdrop [2] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked fund (013527) to explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of cyclical sectors such as petrochemicals, precious metals, and agriculture, with the Petrochemical ETF (159731) rising by 2.35% and individual stocks like Tongkun Co. and Xin Fengming increasing by 7.06% and 6.96% respectively [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, totaling 76.6445 million, with its latest share count reaching 1.768 billion and total assets hitting 1.805 billion, both marking all-time highs since inception [1] - Huazhang Securities notes that lithium prices are experiencing a high-level decline, while demand in the energy storage sector is exceeding expectations, leading to a recovery in the lithium battery industry and a shift in market sentiment regarding lithium demand [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, benefiting from both basic chemicals and oil & petrochemical sectors, and includes high dividend and high growth assets [2] - Key weighted stocks in the ETF include Wanhua Chemical (global MDI leader), China Petroleum (domestic oil and gas leader), China Petrochemical (domestic refining leader), and Salt Lake Potash (domestic potassium fertilizer leader) [2] - The table lists the performance and weight of key stocks within the ETF, with Wanhua Chemical showing a rise of 3.72% and holding a weight of 10.61% [4]