Group 1 - The chemical sector is leading the market with the basic chemical sector showing the highest increase among 30 CITIC primary industries, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 0.99% [1][5][12] - Key stocks in the sector include rubber additives and phosphate chemicals, with notable gains from Tongcheng New Materials hitting the daily limit, and Hongda Co., Ltd. increasing by over 5% [1][6][12] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, while the other 50% covers leading stocks in phosphate, fluorine, and nitrogen sectors [3][9] Group 2 - Major lithium battery manufacturers are starting large-scale equipment bidding, with some equipment manufacturers reporting hundreds of GWh in orders, and the market expects further orders of similar scale [8][9] - It is estimated that new lithium battery production capacity will exceed 1 TWh by 2026, with most lithium equipment manufacturers expected to achieve record high new orders in 2026 [8][9] - The chemical industry is at a new starting point of supply-demand rebalancing, with policies aimed at "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" expected to help the economy recover and confirm the bottom of corporate profits [8][9]

Group 1 - The chemical materials and fine chemicals sectors experienced a strong rally, with the CSI sub-index for the chemical industry rising by 2.11% as of 10:36 AM on January 15, 2026, with notable stock performances including Hongda Co. up 8.95%, Guangdong Hongda up 6.06%, and Yuntianhua up 4.64% [1] - Since 2021, high prices of chemical products have led to increased capital expenditures by petrochemical and chemical companies, initiating a new round of capacity expansion. However, from 2022 onwards, as new capacities were released and oil prices fell from their peaks, many chemical product prices have continued to decline, resulting in decreased profitability for some companies [1] - Starting in 2024, most chemical product prices are stabilizing at the bottom, and while corporate profitability remains under pressure, the introduction of growth stabilization plans is expected to lead to the elimination of some outdated capacities, improving the overall supply-demand dynamics in the industry and enhancing product profitability [1] Group 2 - Guohai Securities suggests that the anti-involution policy may lead to a re-evaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, with a significant slowdown in global capacity expansion expected. The Chinese chemical industry has ample net cash flow from operating activities, and the slowdown in capacity expansion is likely to enhance potential dividend yields, shifting the industry from a capital-consuming model to a profit-returning one [1] - The optimization of the supply side is anticipated to drive a recovery in industry sentiment, with chemical stocks exhibiting high elasticity and dividend advantages [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-index for the chemical industry accounted for 45.31% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yanhua Co. [2]

1月15日，华鲁恒升涨5.11%，截至发稿，报34.99元/股，成交4.67亿元，换手率0.65%，总市值742.91亿 元。 资料显示，山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司位于山东省德州市天衢西路24号，成立日期2000年4月26 日，上市日期2002年6月20日，公司主营业务涉及尿素、甲醇的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：新 能源新材料相关产品48.34%，化学肥料24.61%，醋酸及衍生品10.82%，其他产品7.75%，有机胺 7.33%，副产品及其他1.15%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，富国基金旗下1只基金重仓华鲁恒升。富国中证细分化工产业主题ETF（516120）三季度增 持124.87万股，持有股数152.52万股，占基金净值比例为3.21%，位居第七大重仓股。根据测算，今日 浮盈赚取约259.29万元。 富国中证细分化工产业主题ETF（516120）成立日期2021年3月1日，最新规模12.64亿。今年以来收益 3.75%，同类排名3236/5525；近一年收益53.32%，同类排名1040/4208；成立以来亏损7.29%。 富国中证细分化工产业主题ETF（516120）基金经理为殷钦怡。 ...

浙商汇金量化臻选股票A（011824）成立日期2021年7月1日，最新规模4003.07万。今年以来收益 6.08%，同类排名2291/5525；近一年收益36.9%，同类排名2141/4208；成立以来收益23.99%。 浙商汇金量化臻选股票A（011824）基金经理为陈顾君。 1月15日，华鲁恒升涨5.11%，截至发稿，报34.99元/股，成交4.68亿元，换手率0.65%，总市值742.91亿 元。 资料显示，山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司位于山东省德州市天衢西路24号，成立日期2000年4月26 日，上市日期2002年6月20日，公司主营业务涉及尿素、甲醇的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：新 能源新材料相关产品48.34%，化学肥料24.61%，醋酸及衍生品10.82%，其他产品7.75%，有机胺 7.33%，副产品及其他1.15%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，浙商证券资管旗下1只基金重仓华鲁恒升。浙商汇金量化臻选股票A（011824）三季度持有 股数3.89万股，占基金净值比例为0.84%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约6.61万元。 截至发稿，陈顾君累计任职时间5年362天，现任基 ...

Investment Highlights - The article highlights the increasing trend of industry consolidation driven by recent mergers and acquisitions among leading companies, indicating a clear upward trajectory in industry concentration [2] - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2026, supported by improving supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic stability during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the impact of new technologies such as AI and robotics on demand for new materials [39][40] 2025 Chemical Industry Review and 2026 Outlook 1.1 2025 Industry Review: Clear Differentiation - As of December 12, 2025, the basic chemical industry outperformed the market with a 32.16% increase in the CITIC Basic Chemical Index, compared to a 6.59% increase in the CITIC Oil and Petrochemical Index [3][6] 1.2 2025 Industry Review: Sub-industry Differentiation - Among 39 sub-industries, 38 saw increases, with potassium fertilizer leading at +85.87% and refining lagging at -8.99% [6] 1.3 Energy Chemical Products Review and 2026 Outlook - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with WTI and Brent averaging $65.05 and $68.36 per barrel respectively in 2025, down from $76.10 and $80.11 in 2024 [8] 1.4 Supply-Demand Dynamics Improvement: Capacity Expansion Slowing - Fixed asset investment in the chemical industry decreased by 7.9% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [13] 1.5 Supply-Demand Dynamics Improvement: Demand Side Stabilization Expected - The basic chemical industry achieved revenue of 676.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 5.32% year-on-year increase [18] 1.6 Supply-Demand Dynamics Improvement: Capital Expenditure and Construction Projects - Capital expenditure in the basic chemical industry fell by 1.17% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of reduced investment [22] 1.7 Revenue and Profit Situation: Revenue Growth of 2.87% in 2025 - The basic chemical industry saw a revenue increase of 2.87% in the first three quarters of 2025, with 14 out of 33 sub-industries reporting growth [25] 1.8 Revenue and Profit Situation: Profit Growth of 5.61% in 2025 - The industry recorded a profit increase of 5.61% in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable growth in sectors like pesticides and membrane materials [27] 1.9 Capital Expenditure and Construction Projects: Capacity Expansion Slowing - Capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector decreased by 9.07% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [29] 1.10 Oil and Petrochemical Industry Revenue and Construction Projects - The oil and petrochemical industry reported a revenue of 19,037 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decline of 4.67% year-on-year [33] 1.11 Strategic Emerging Industries Development Direction - The focus for 2026 will be on quality improvement in the chemical industry, with an emphasis on new materials and technologies [37] Chemical Cycle Products: "Anti-Internal Competition" Catalyzing Cycle Recovery 2.1 Petrochemical Refining: Oil Price Stabilization - Oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, benefiting refining margins and improving profitability for domestic refineries [42][45] 2.2 Pesticides: Industry Outlook Improving - The pesticide industry is expected to see gradual improvement in market conditions as raw material prices stabilize [48][50] 2.3 Potash: Resource Endowment Supporting Industry Stability - The potash industry is characterized by a concentrated global supply chain, ensuring food security [52][56] 2.4 Phosphate: Favorable for Integrated Resource Companies - The phosphate industry is expected to benefit from stable demand in agriculture and the growth of new energy sectors [59][62] 2.5 Civil Explosives: Steady Growth Supported by Demand - The civil explosives industry is projected to grow steadily due to stable demand from infrastructure projects [64][66] 2.6 Fluorochemicals: Growth Potential in High-Value Applications - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from increasing demand for high-value applications in various sectors [71][74] 2.7 Soda Ash: Tight Supply-Demand Balance - The soda ash industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with limited new capacity expected [81][83] 2.8 Titanium Dioxide: Industry Recovery Anticipated - The titanium dioxide industry is expected to recover as supply constraints and environmental regulations drive consolidation [86][89] Chemical New Materials: "New Economy" Driving Growth 3.1 Electronic Chemicals: Accelerating Domestic Substitution - The semiconductor materials market is projected to grow, with domestic companies making strides in replacing imported products [91][93]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The startup of Hengam's 1.1 million tons/year urea plant has been delayed due to nationwide protests and their political implications, impacting the urea supply chain [1]. Industry Insights - As of January 14, the price of small granular urea in Shandong is quoted at 1710-1740 RMB/ton, while medium granular urea from Shandong Hualu Hengsheng is priced at 1730 RMB/ton [1]. - The daily production of urea in the industry is reported at 199,400 tons, showing a decrease of 2,600 tons day-on-day, but there are expectations for supply improvement as gas companies are anticipated to resume production [1]. Institutional Perspectives - Minmetals Futures suggests that the current price gap between domestic and international markets has opened an import window, and with expectations of a recovery in operations by the end of January, bearish expectations for urea fundamentals are imminent, recommending profit-taking on high prices [2]. - Guantong Futures indicates that in the absence of significant changes in fundamentals, the market is stabilizing after previous emotional fluctuations, with prices supported by continuous inventory depletion; urea is expected to consolidate in the short term while maintaining a strong outlook in the medium to long term [2].

| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | -1.42% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | -0.20% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 2.46% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | -3.73% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 甲国海海 | -0.56% | 5.22% | | 600160 | 巨化股份 | -3.91% | 4.51% | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | -1.41% | 3.82% | | 600143 | 金发科技 | 3.25% | 3.69% | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | -1.53% | 3.31% | | 600989 | 宝幸能源 | -1.77% | 3.27% | 截至1月9日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨49.64%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月9日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为8个月， 最长连涨涨幅为41.60%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.25 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for ethane, propane, and coal are 1,165, 4,172, and 520 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for animal nutrition products such as VA and VE are 62.5 and 54.9 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2][16][20]. Oil, Coal, and Olefins Sector - Ethane and propane average prices are 1,165 and 4,172 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2][24][31]. - The average price for polyethylene is 6,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30 CNY/ton [2]. Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2][40][48][49]. Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA, VE, solid egg amino acid, and liquid egg amino acid are 62.5, 54.9, 17.6, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2][56][62].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies does not alter the competitive advantage of China's chemical industry. The cancellation of export tax rebates for various chemical products is expected to increase export costs, reflecting China's energy and waste treatment capabilities. Despite theoretical concerns about competitiveness, high energy-consuming products like PVC lack global expansion capacity, and the price increase due to VAT will not significantly change competitive dynamics [2][7] - Market rumors do not change the profit recovery opportunities in the industry. Reports of regulatory discussions regarding monopolistic risks have led to stock price corrections for leading chemical companies. However, the industry is still in a self-rescue phase, with production cuts not aimed at achieving monopolistic profits but rather at facilitating recovery from previous losses [2][7] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended leading companies in the refining industry include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy). The report also highlights recovery opportunities in various chemical sub-industries, such as MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) and PVC-related companies like Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), and Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated). In the phosphoric chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) are noted for their growth potential driven by rapid energy storage growth. In the oxalic acid sector, attention is drawn to Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience an upward cycle due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in China and the accelerated exit of some European facilities [29] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitution of semiconductor materials from Japan due to rising geopolitical tensions, which could benefit various companies in the sector [5] - The chromium salt industry is undergoing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with a projected supply-demand gap of 340,900 tons by 2028 [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance with a 1-month increase of 10.7%, 3-month increase of 9.6%, and a 12-month increase of 45.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Price Trends - Key products such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon have seen significant price increases, supported by policy guidance and industry self-discipline [12] - The price of chromium salts has remained stable, with metal chromium priced at 82,000 CNY/ton as of January 9, 2026 [15] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhu Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as those in sectors with improving market conditions like chromium salts and phosphates [6][9] - High dividend yield opportunities are identified in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Chemical [10] Key Company Tracking - Companies such as Dongfang Shenghong and Huabei Yihua are highlighted for their earnings potential, with projected EPS growth for 2026 [30] - The report tracks specific price movements for various chemicals, including a notable increase in the price of ammonium phosphate and a stable price for urea [17][19]