基础化工/农化制品 公 司 研 华鲁恒升（600426.SH） 两大基地协同齐头并进，看好氨醇能效领跑者成长 究 2024年04月03日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 金益腾（分析师） 张晓锋（分析师） 宋梓荣（联系人） jinyiteng@kysec.cn zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn songzirong@kysec.cn 日期 2024/4/2 证 书编号：S0790520020002 证书编号：S0790522080003 证书编号：S0790123070025 当前股价(元) 26.40  Q4化工景气度环比下行拖累公司业绩，新基地顺利投产，维持“买入”评级 公 一年最高最低(元) 35.95/23.32 2023 年公司实现营收 272.60 亿元，同比-9.87%；实现归母净利 35.76 亿元，同 司 信 总市值(亿元) 560.56 比-43.14%。Q4公司实现营收79.14亿元，环比+13.26%；实现归母净利6.49亿 息 流通市值(亿元) 558.47 元，环比-46.73%；实现归母扣非净利润8.00亿元。2023年受需求收缩、供给冲 更 总股本( ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" [1][3]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to industry downturns, but project contributions are expected to provide incremental growth [1][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal chemical industry, leveraging its flexible production capabilities and low-cost advantages to expand its product lines in response to market changes [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company’s gross profit margin was 20.85%, a decrease of 8.09 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 32.73 billion yuan, 37.77 billion yuan, and 41.30 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 15.4%, and 9.3% respectively [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.67 billion yuan, 5.81 billion yuan, and 6.73 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 30.5%, 24.5%, and 16.0% respectively [3][4]. Product Performance Summary - The company’s revenue from new energy materials, organic amines, fertilizers, and acetic acid and derivatives in 2023 were 15.48 billion yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, 5.68 billion yuan, and 2.05 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 5.61%, -55.38%, 2.86%, and -2.59% respectively [1][4]. - The sales volume for these products was 2.18 million tons, 0.52 million tons, 3.26 million tons, and 0.72 million tons, with year-on-year changes of 20.20%, 8.80%, 14.89%, and 24.20% respectively [1][4]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in its Dezhou and Jingzhou bases, which will enhance its product structure and growth potential [3][4]. - The Jingzhou base is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 1 million tons of urea, 1 million tons of acetic acid, and 150,000 tons of dimethylformamide (DMF) upon reaching full capacity [1][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.1% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.70 billion yuan, a decline of 42.3% year-on-year. In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 7.91 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year and 13.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year and 46.7% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - The company is optimistic about its long-term growth prospects due to the continuous rollout of new projects, including the development of high-end new materials and the establishment of a second base in Jingzhou, which is expected to support long-term growth [5][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.60 yuan per share (before tax) for the year 2023 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 27.26 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 5.68 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 21% [10]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.87 billion yuan, 5.62 billion yuan, and 6.20 billion yuan, respectively [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The company faces challenges with downstream demand recovery not meeting expectations and new project progress being slower than anticipated [5][6]. - The prices of key products such as urea, DMF, and others have shown fluctuations, with Q4 2023 market prices for major products experiencing a range of changes [6][10]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for improvement in operating conditions as terminal demand continues to recover and cost pressures ease [6][10]. - The company’s diversified product portfolio and leading production capabilities are expected to mitigate operational volatility and support future growth [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.576 billion RMB, also down by 35.76% [1]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.914 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.36%, while the net profit for the same period was 649 million RMB, down 14.09% [1]. - The new production base in Jingzhou is expected to contribute positively to future performance, with stable operations and potential for profit improvement as industry capacity balances out [1][4]. - The company is facing pricing pressure in acetic acid and organic amines due to concentrated new capacity coming online, leading to a decline in average prices by approximately 9% and 1% respectively [1][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 27.26 billion RMB, down from 30.25 billion RMB in 2022, with a revenue growth rate of -9.87% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 3.576 billion RMB from 6.289 billion RMB in 2022, marking a decline of 43.14% [4]. Operational Analysis - The Jingzhou base has started contributing significantly to production, with output increases in fertilizers, acetic acid, and organic amines by 26%, 97%, and 27% respectively [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q4 2023 was 17.77%, down from 24.33% in Q3 2023, indicating a decline in product profitability [1]. Future Outlook - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 32.56 billion RMB, 37.87 billion RMB, and 41.99 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.56 billion RMB, 5.83 billion RMB, and 6.83 billion RMB [1][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability as industry capacity begins to stabilize, with the Jingzhou base expected to enhance operational efficiency and cost management [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance has been pressured by a downturn in the chemical industry, leading to a decline in revenue and profit [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is advancing its dual-base project development, which is expected to support long-term growth [2]. - The company has reported a total revenue of 27.26 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's main product prices have declined, resulting in a drop in overall performance. Although sales volumes for key segments such as new energy materials and organic amines increased by 20.2% and 8.8% respectively, revenue growth was hindered by price declines [2]. - The revenue growth rates for segments like new energy materials, organic amines, fertilizers, and acetic acid were 5.61%, -55.38%, 2.86%, and -2.59% respectively [2]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 8 percentage points to 20.85% [2]. Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is leveraging clean coal gasification technology and a flexible multi-product production model to enhance resource utilization and expand its product chain [2]. - The company is implementing new projects and upgrading existing ones at its Dezhou base while simultaneously developing a second base in Jingzhou, which is expected to open new growth avenues [2]. - The first phase of the Jingzhou base project has been completed and is operational, while new projects in Dezhou are also progressing well [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 4.68 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 6.74 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.20 yuan, 2.66 yuan, and 3.17 yuan [3][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decline of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.576 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [7][8]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.914 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.26% [7][8]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its market competitiveness [11][12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023: 27,260 million yuan - 2024E: 34,541 million yuan (26.7% YoY growth) - 2025E: 39,131 million yuan (13.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: 43,715 million yuan (11.7% YoY growth) [3] - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 3,576 million yuan - 2024E: 4,545 million yuan (27.1% YoY growth) - 2025E: 5,714 million yuan (25.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,258 million yuan (9.5% YoY growth) [3] - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 20.9% - 2024E: 21.2% - 2025E: 22.6% - 2026E: 22.0% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.68 yuan - 2024E: 2.14 yuan - 2025E: 2.69 yuan - 2026E: 2.95 yuan [3][12] Company Developments - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.00 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [4]. - The first phase of the Jingzhou base has been put into operation, contributing to revenue growth in Q4 2023, despite overall weak product demand [8][11]. - Ongoing projects at the Jingzhou and Dezhou bases are expected to support future growth, with significant investments planned for new materials and high-end products [11][12].

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2024 年03月 31 日 华鲁恒升 (600426) 公 司 研 究 ——业绩基本符合预期，荆州项目增量明显，低成本核心 公 司 优势稳固 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入 投资要点： （维持）  公司公告：公司2023年实现营业收入272.6亿元（YoY -9.87%），归母净利润35.76亿元（YoY 证 -43.14%），扣非归母净利润37.03亿元（YoY -42.28%），业绩基本符合预期。其中，Q4实现营 券 业收入79.14亿元（YoY +9.36%，QoQ +13.27%），归母净利润6.49亿元（YoY -14.09%，QoQ 研 市场数据： 2024年03月29日 -46.72%），扣非归母净利润8亿元（YoY -14.52%，QoQ -33.94%）。公司拟向全体股东每10股 究 收盘价（元） 26.16 派发现金红利6.00元（含税），现金分红总额约占公司2023年归母净利润的35.63%。 报 一年内最高/最低（元） 35.27/23.32  2023 年全年景气底部震荡，诉讼费用完成计提，后续有望轻装上阵。受下游需求疲软影响，2023 告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2023, with revenue dropping by 9.87% year-on-year to 27.26 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by 43.14% to 3.576 billion yuan. However, the production commencement of the Jingzhou Phase I project is expected to enhance growth potential [3][4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 27.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.576 billion yuan, down 43.14%. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 12.81%, a decline of 12.77 percentage points [3][4] - For Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.914 billion yuan, an increase of 9.36% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 14.09% year-on-year to 649 million yuan [3][7] Market Conditions - The chemical industry faced challenges in 2023 due to demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations, leading to increased competition and lower product prices. The average price of urea was 2,495 yuan/ton, down 8.63% year-on-year, while DMF prices dropped by 53.21% to 5,645 yuan/ton [4][3] Growth Drivers - The Jingzhou base's Phase I project was completed and began operations, achieving rapid profitability. The company also successfully launched high-end solvent projects and is advancing its nylon 66 high-end new materials project [4][8] - The company’s new energy materials products saw a sales volume increase of 20.20% year-on-year, generating revenue of 15.476 billion yuan, up 5.61% year-on-year [4] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, estimating net profits of 5.205 billion yuan, 6.025 billion yuan, and 6.803 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 11, 9, and 8 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.576 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [5]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue increase of 9.36% year-on-year, reaching 7.914 billion yuan, while the net profit for the same period was 649 million yuan, a decrease of 14.09% year-on-year [5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan for every 10 shares, which accounts for 35.63% of the projected net profit for 2024 [5]. - The company is focusing on new growth points through the launch of its Jingzhou Phase I project, which is expected to enhance profitability [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 20.85%, down 8.09 percentage points year-on-year, but the gross margin for Q4 2023 improved to 17.77%, up 2.37 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - Revenue from new energy materials, fertilizers, and organic amines showed mixed results, with total revenues of 15.476 billion yuan, 5.676 billion yuan, and 2.675 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.61%, 2.86%, and a decline of 55.38% [5]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 4.723 billion yuan, 5.402 billion yuan, and 6.221 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery trend [5][7]. Project Development - The Jingzhou Phase I project is set to produce 1 million tons of urea, 1 million tons of acetic acid, and 150,000 tons of DMF annually, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [5]. - The company is also advancing its projects in Dezhou, focusing on new energy and materials, which are expected to enhance overall profitability [5].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年04月01日 华鲁恒升（600426.SH） 荆州基地投产贡献增量，全年业绩阶段性承压 事件：2024年3月29日，公司发布2023年年报，公告全年实现营收272.60 买入（维持） 亿元，同比-9.87%；实现归母净利润 35.76 亿元，同比-43.14%；毛利率/ 股票信息 净利率分别20.9%/13.3%，同比分别-8.1pct/-7.5pct。 行业 化学原料 荆州基地正式投产，收入规模与费用支出同步扩张。公司持股比例为 70% 前次评级 买入 的荆州项目已于2023年底正式投产，全年产生营收12.47亿元、净利润1.55 3月29日收盘价(元) 26.16 亿元。但伴随新基地投产，公司费用支出也在四季度集中体现。费用方面， 总市值(百万元) 55,546.05 公司销售/财务费用环比分别+55.8%/+67.8%，主要系差旅费、职工薪酬和 总股本(百万股) 2,123.32 利息费用增长所致。与之对应，荆州子公司期末负债为 98.9 亿元，公司自 其中自由流通股(%) 99.46 身长期借款也从32.6亿增至73.5亿元，同比+125.64%，资产负债率提 ...