Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [32]. Core Insights - Domestic raw coal production increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 3.165 billion tons from January to August 2025, while coal imports fell by 11.1% year-on-year to 35 million tons from January to September 2025 [4][18]. - In Q3 2025, both thermal coal and coking coal prices rebounded, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports rising to approximately 673 CNY/ton, a 6.75% increase from Q2 2025, despite a 20.66% decrease year-on-year [4][23]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q3 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal achieving better-than-expected results, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining are projected to meet expectations [4][25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of coal remains tight due to production capacity checks, while demand is robust, leading to a rebound in coal prices during Q3 2025 [4][23]. - The report highlights that major coal-producing regions like Shanxi and Shaanxi have shown production increases, while Inner Mongolia experienced a slight decline [10][18]. Price Trends - The report details significant price fluctuations in coal types, with thermal coal prices showing a rebound in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, while coking coal prices also saw increases due to supply constraints [21][24]. - The average price of Shanxi's main coking coal at the port was reported at 1564 CNY/ton, reflecting a 19.09% increase from Q2 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease [24]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for key coal companies, indicating that China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 1.97 CNY, while companies like Shaanxi Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have EPS of 1.29 CNY and 0.25 CNY, respectively [25]. - The report identifies companies with strong earnings potential, recommending investments in undervalued stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining, while also suggesting stable dividend-paying stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4][25].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600403 | 大有能源 | 4.95 | 10.00% | 92.04万 | | 4.32亿 | | 600397 | 江钨装备 | 7.88 | 7.65% | 91.82万 | | 7.27亿 | | 669109 | 潞安环能 | 15.40 | 5.70% | 84.20万 | | 12.79亿 | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | 4.49 | 5.65% | 121.44万 | | 5.40亿 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 10.68 | 5.12% | 90.64万 | | 9.54亿 | | 000571 | 新大洲A | 5.88 | 4.26% | 82.30万 | | 4.91亿 | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 15.49 | 3.82% | 82.35万 | | 12.75亿 | | 601225 | 陕西煤业 | 21.33 | 3.75% | 103.48万 | | 21.93亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a price recovery and improved profitability for coal companies, following a period of decline due to falling coal prices and poor profits [1] Supply - In July, China's raw coal production was 380 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons (-9.5%) month-on-month and 9 million tons (-3.8%) year-on-year; in August, production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 6 million tons (-3.2%) [2] - The total coal production for 2025 is projected to be approximately 4.71 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2] - Coal imports showed a recovery in July and August, with July imports at 35.61 million tons (down 22.9% year-on-year) and August at 42.74 million tons (down 6.7% year-on-year) [2] Demand - The expectation of a cold winter is likely to increase demand in November and December, with a projected year-on-year growth in national electricity consumption of 5%-6% for 2025 [3] - Chemical coal demand remains high, with significant year-on-year increases in coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol production [3] Inventory - Inventory pressures across various segments have eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [4] - Mainstream port inventories have decreased to 60.43 million tons, down from mid-May highs, and coal company sales have improved [4] Price - The tightening supply expectations have raised the bottom price for coal, with the fourth-quarter price expected to center around 750 yuan/ton [5] - The focus on production checks and stricter safety inspections has contributed to the price rebound [5] Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a cyclical low with high PE and low PB ratios, indicating potential for rebound as coal prices rise [6] - Recommended stocks include: - Elastic stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001.SH) [6] - Growth stocks: Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ), Huayang Co. (600348.SH) [6] - Long-term stable stocks: China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [6]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently at 3870.35 points, above the annual line, with a decline of 0.49% and a total trading volume of 20,965.31 billion yuan [1] - A total of 67 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - Ainoju (艾能聚) with a deviation rate of 8.12% and a daily increase of 9.39% [1] - LiuGong (柳工) with a deviation rate of 5.44% and a daily increase of 5.69% [1] - Asia Optical (亚世光电) with a deviation rate of 5.10% and a daily increase of 9.99% [1] - Other stocks that have just crossed the annual line include: - Guangzhou Restaurant (广州酒家) and Junzheng Group (君正集团) with smaller deviation rates [1] Trading Data - The trading data for stocks that broke the annual line includes: - Ainoju: Latest price 20.62 yuan, annual line 19.07 yuan, turnover rate 22.19% [1] - LiuGong: Latest price 11.51 yuan, annual line 10.92 yuan, turnover rate 7.78% [1] - Asia Optical: Latest price 23.13 yuan, annual line 22.01 yuan, turnover rate 12.90% [1]

Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a potential increase in coal prices and improved profitability for coal companies as supply constraints become evident [2][11][18]. Group 1: PE and PB Analysis - The coal sector has experienced a downward trend in both PE and PB after a period of rapid growth, with significant differentiation observed during two periods: 2014-2017 and mid-2024 to present [2][11]. - The current PE is at approximately the 65th percentile since 2005, while the PB is at about the 27th percentile, indicating a cyclical low for the sector [17][18]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decrease due to rainfall and regulatory checks, with an expected slight decline in total production for the year [3][37]. - The total coal production for 2025 is projected to be around 4.71 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3][37]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Anticipated cold winter conditions are expected to boost demand in the winter months, with electricity consumption projected to grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025 [4]. - Chemical coal demand remains robust, with significant year-on-year increases in production for coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Trends - Inventory pressures across various segments have eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [5]. - The expectation of supply contraction is likely to elevate the price floor for coal, with seasonal demand potentially opening up upward price movement [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their potential for rebound and growth, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance on October 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3900 points, while the ChiNext Index fell over 2% after an initial rise [1][3]. Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 905 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Out of 2438 stocks, 42 hit the daily limit up, while 2825 stocks declined [3]. Sector Performance - The financial and liquor sectors were active, with insurance and banking stocks leading the gains [3][9]. - The coal sector rose over 3%, leading the market, with several stocks recording significant gains [9][10]. - The semiconductor sector experienced a notable decline, with various related stocks showing weakness [18]. Notable Stocks - New China Life Insurance saw a price increase of 6.16%, reaching 66.01 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 183.9 billion yuan [5][6]. - Major banks like Chongqing Bank and China Merchants Bank also saw gains, with Chongqing Bank rising over 5% [7][8]. - In the coal sector, Dayou Energy recorded a 10% increase, while other companies like Baotailong and Jiangtong Equipment also saw significant gains [10][11]. Liquor Sector Highlights - The liquor sector rebounded, with notable increases in stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which rose by 2.35% and 1.74% respectively [12][14]. - The sector was buoyed by market interest following comments from a well-known investor regarding Moutai [16]. Emerging Trends - The cultivated diamond sector saw a surge of over 6%, with stocks like Lili Diamond and Huifeng Diamond rising significantly [16][17]. - The semiconductor industry faced a downturn, with major companies like SMIC and Huagong Information experiencing declines of over 4% [18][19].

煤炭周报 安全生产考核巡查将开启，助力煤价反弹 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ➢ 安全生产考核巡查将开启，助力煤价反弹。据应急管理部微信公众号消息， 按照 2025 年度中央安全生产考核巡查工作安排，11 月份，22 个中央安全生产 考核巡查组将陆续进驻 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和新疆生产建设兵团开展年度 考核巡查。10 月 9 日至 10 月 31 日，国务院安全生产委员会办公室将通过互联 网、电话、信件等 3 种途径，受理群众反映和职工报告问题隐患线索。受理范围 主要包括：涉及安全生产相关的重大问题隐患、安全生产非法违法行为等，同时 受理有关部门和企业一线干部职工反映各级各部门在落实安全生产责任上存在 的问题、加强和改进安全生产工作的建议。考虑到巡查组受理主要范围为安全相 关问题，其进驻或对煤炭超能力生产等安全隐患做出整改，进而导致煤炭供给的 进一步收缩。2025 年 7 月以来，全国原煤产量单月同比降幅均超过 3%，内蒙 古超产核查落地预计后续供给也将减量，11 月巡查组进驻的背景下，预计供给 端收缩的预期进一步加强。 ➢ 11 月需求旺季到来，安全生产考核巡查有望助力煤价上涨。9 月煤价出现 淡 ...

山煤国际能源集团股份有限公司将于2025年10月17日召开2025年第三次临时股东会，会议由董事会召 集，付中华主持，采用现场与网络投票结合方式。会议将审议《关于修订部分条款的议案》，依据《公 司法》《上市公司章程指引》等规定进行修订，具体内容详见2025年10月1日上交所网站公告（临2025- 039号）。另一项议案为《关于修订的议案》，将根据《公司法》《上市公司章程指引》及公司章程修 订情况同步调整，修订全文见同日上交所披露文件。上述议案已于2025年9月30日经第八届董事会第三 十四次会议审议通过，现提请股东大会审议。会议出席对象为截至2025年10月10日登记在册的股东、公 司董事、高管、律师及工作人员。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 截至2025年10月10日收盘，山煤国际（600546）报收于10.33元，较上周的9.79元上涨5.52%。本周，山 煤国际10月10日盘中最高价报10.41元。10月9日盘中最低价报9.75元。山煤国际当前最新总市值204.79 亿元，在煤炭开采板块市值排名14/30，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a stable and slightly rising trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend in late October 2025 [7][8]. - The demand side is supported by higher temperatures leading to increased coal consumption, particularly in coastal and inland provinces. The average daily coal consumption reached 5.486 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 18.82% and a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7][8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of tighter supply due to regulatory measures against overproduction and adverse weather conditions affecting coal production and transportation [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 185.34 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 181.40 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 710 yuan per ton as of October 10, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan per ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.529 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The report notes that the Daqin line has begun its autumn maintenance, which will reduce daily transport capacity and may lead to further inventory depletion at ports [8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The steel market is entering a traditional peak season, which is expected to improve the demand for coking coal. The average daily pig iron production has remained above 2.4 million tons [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][12].

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to contract due to the upcoming safety production inspections, which may lead to an increase in coal prices as demand rises in November [2][3]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Supply Impact - In November, 22 safety inspection teams will enter 31 provinces and regions to conduct annual assessments, focusing on major safety issues and illegal activities in production [2]. - The inspections may lead to rectifications of safety hazards related to overproduction in the coal sector, further tightening coal supply [2][3]. - Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with expectations of further reductions due to the inspections [2]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - The coal price has rebounded during the off-season, stabilizing above 700 yuan/ton by the end of September, primarily due to supply contraction [3]. - As the heating season begins in mid-November, the demand for coal is expected to increase, particularly from non-electric sectors like coal chemical industries, which may support coal prices [3]. - The anticipated supply reduction is expected to end the seasonal price decline early, with projections suggesting coal prices could exceed 900 yuan/ton by year-end [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising coal prices, with a focus on companies with high spot market exposure [3]. - Recommended investment targets include: 1. Companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy [3]. 2. Stable and growth-oriented companies like Jincheng Anthracite Mining and Huayang Co., Ltd. [3]. 3. Companies with recovery in production, such as Shanxi Coal International [3]. 4. Industry leaders with stable performance, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].