截至2025年7月22日 14:23，中证国有企业红利指数(000824)强势上涨1.80%，成分股隧道股份(600820)、山西焦煤(000983)、昊华能源(601101)纷纷10cm涨 停，山煤国际(600546)，潞安环能(601699)等个股跟涨。国企红利ETF(159515)上涨1.83%， 冲击3连涨。 光大证券指出，近期"反内卷"预期持续加强，预计煤价走势将偏强，叠加用煤旺季来临，煤炭板块中长期预期不悲观。 国信证券表示"高股息价值仍存，阶段博弈弹性"。该机构指出，上半年煤价摸底，下半年随着供需格局改善，煤价尚存持续反弹潜力，中期维度看好煤炭需 求韧性。从经营指标看，在业绩压力较大的2025Q1，煤炭板块表现依旧排名靠前，如较低的资产负债率(44.7%)、较高的净利率水平(12.7%)、以及相对较高 的ROE。在当前低利率的宏观环境中，业绩稳健的高股息龙头标依旧具备较高配置价值。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | eolala | 中远海控 | 3.72% | 2.36% | | 000937 | 冀中能源 | 2.6 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] "反内卷"下哪些煤炭公司弹性较大？ 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 煤炭板块当前处于产能利用率低&库存偏高&盈利较差状态，说明当前供给过剩程度突出，所以 反内卷可能性较大；此外，煤炭板块估值较低，估值优势排序上焦炭>焦煤>动力煤，由此可见 双焦权益弹性更大。从个股来看，平煤股份、盘江股份、山煤国际、开滦股份、恒源煤电、甘 肃能化弹性较大；但如果把投资安全性（负债率）也考虑进去，则平煤股份、开滦股份、恒源 煤电、晋控煤业较好。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] "反内卷"下哪些煤 ...

| 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 07 月 20 日 | 相关研究 【兴证煤炭】煤炭行业周报（2025.7.6- 2025.7.12）——"反内卷"行情加持， 煤价持续走高-2025.07.14 【兴证煤炭】周报 24：酷热来袭需求提 速，动煤价格反弹可期（2025.6.29- 2025.7.05）-2025.07.06 行业周报 | 煤炭 证券研究报告 liranran@xyzq.com.cn 煤炭行业周报（2025.7.13-2025.7.19）—— 煤价全面走高，板块有望开启上攻 投资要点： 周观点（2025.7.13-2025.7.19）：1）动力煤：迎峰度夏已至，坑口煤价全面走高。本周， 坑口煤价全面上涨。供应端，主产地供应逐步恢复，晋陕蒙煤炭产量环比增加。进口端， 在国内外煤价倒挂下，进口煤延续减量，6 月进口同比显著下滑 26%，供应整体有所收紧； 需求端，酷热来袭，社会用电需求大幅攀升，日耗走高，相较去年同期已有增长。展望后 市，随着高温天气持续演绎，煤价有望延续走强。2）炼焦煤：焦煤价格全面走高，坑口现 货价格涨至长协之上。本周， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stable performance and growth potential [3][12]. Core Insights - National electricity load has reached new highs, with peak season demand expected to drive coal prices upward. The report anticipates that by mid-August, prices may exceed 750 RMB/ton, with a price center around 700 RMB/ton for the second half of the year [2][7]. - Coal supply is decreasing significantly, with June 2025 coal imports down by 11.1% year-on-year, and domestic coal production showing mixed results. The overall capacity utilization rate in the coal mining sector has dropped to 69.3%, the lowest since Q1 2020 [2][21][38]. - The demand side shows a positive trend, with thermal power generation growth turning positive since late May, and electricity consumption reaching record levels due to rising temperatures [2][7][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Huayang Co., Ltd. for stable performance and year-on-year production growth 2. Jinko Coal Industry for high net cash growth potential 3. Industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua for stable earnings 4. Shanmei International for recovery in production 5. Xinji Energy for coal-electricity integrated growth 6. CGN Mining for benefiting from nuclear power growth [3][12]. Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the coal sector has seen a weekly decline of 0.7%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [13][15]. - Yunnan Coal Energy has shown the highest weekly increase at 4.11%, while Dayou Energy has experienced the largest decline at 10.33% [18][19]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that coal prices are on an upward trend, with significant increases in both port and production prices. For instance, Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reached 634 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 10 RMB/ton [8][10]. - The report highlights the structural tightness in coal supply, with power plants' coal inventories dropping below levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [2][7].

Group 1: Coal Sector Insights - The coal sector experienced a significant boost on July 14, with stocks like Zhengzhou Coal Power hitting the daily limit up, and other companies such as Shanxi Coal International and Liaoning Energy also seeing substantial gains [4][7]. - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held a meeting emphasizing the need for coal companies to recognize the severe imbalance in supply and demand, and to strictly implement long-term contracts for electricity coal [7]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of maintaining safety and stability in production, improving coal supply quality, and addressing "involution" competition within the industry [7]. Group 2: Market Performance - On July 14, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45% respectively [15]. - A total of 3,179 stocks rose, with 72 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,064 stocks declined, including 18 that hit the daily limit down [16][17]. - The total trading volume reached 14,809.22 billion CNY, with a total of 122,924.9 million shares traded [17]. Group 3: Other Sector Developments - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to stimulate market liquidity and has drawn comparisons to the "Belt and Road Initiative" in terms of its long-term narrative potential [8]. - Various sectors, including construction, steel, and cement, have expressed intentions to address structural contradictions within their industries, with specific policies anticipated to be introduced soon [9]. - In Dongguan, a new plan was released to promote high-quality service consumption, including initiatives to enhance dining experiences and expand elderly care services [11][13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market performance, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized around 3500 points, driven by policy expectations and potential government stimulus measures [1][2] - Analysts from Citigroup predict that the upcoming Politburo meeting will not revise the budget or increase government bond quotas, but will focus on implementing existing policies to support consumption and the real estate sector [1][2] - The article highlights that the real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with a potential for further gains in the coming weeks, based on historical trends of policy-driven market movements [3][5] Group 2 - The banking sector is expected to see an increase in dividend yields due to upcoming dividend distributions, which could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [7] - The article notes that the insurance sector is adjusting its investment strategies to favor high-dividend assets, which may impact the overall market dynamics [7] - The article mentions that the real estate index has risen by 9.69% since June 23, indicating a positive trend relative to the Shanghai Composite Index [3][5] Group 3 - The article outlines the upcoming key events in the financial calendar, including the Politburo meeting and FOMC meetings, which are expected to influence market sentiment and policy direction [2] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and policy announcements as they could significantly impact market performance in the second half of the year [2][10] - The article suggests that sectors such as renewable energy, construction materials, and industrial metals are likely to benefit from current market trends and policy support [15][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price rebound is expected to exceed expectations due to continuous improvement in supply and demand margins [1]. - The report highlights strong support for coal prices driven by increased electricity demand during high-temperature weather, with significant historical peaks in power load recorded [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create long-term uncertainties in domestic coal supply, while short-term supply is affected by heavy rainfall [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market value of 17,077.38 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16,672.70 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 637 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9 yuan/ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.642 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption during the summer heat, with a historical peak load of 2.52 million kilowatts recorded in the southern power grid [7]. - The supply side is constrained by heavy rainfall affecting production capacity, with the utilization rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions at 80.4% [6]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yancoal Energy, Guohui Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the rebound in coal prices [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the coal sector, particularly those related to thermal and coking coal [6][7].

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7] Core Views - The coal supply-demand relationship continues to optimize under high-temperature conditions, with port coal prices rising and inventory decreasing [4][72] - The production side shows a tightening trend, with a decrease in capacity utilization in Shanxi and a reduction in transportation volumes [4][72] - The demand side is supported by power plants replenishing inventory in anticipation of increased consumption due to high temperatures [4][72] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices increased to 623 RMB/ton, up 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][72] - Inventory at northern ports decreased by 797,000 tons week-on-week [30] - Daily consumption at coastal power plants rose by 80,000 tons week-on-week [24][72] 2. Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has improved, with capacity utilization rising by 1.04 percentage points [5][41] - Coking coal prices at ports remained stable, with the average price at 1,230 RMB/ton [42] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 586,200 tons week-on-week [47] 3. Coke - Coking enterprises are experiencing a decline in production rates due to rising costs from coking coal prices [50] - The average profit per ton of coke is approximately -46 RMB, indicating a decrease in profitability [54] - Steel mills are replenishing raw material inventories, leading to a reduction in coke inventories [62] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices remained stable, with the price at 820 RMB/ton [68] - Demand from non-electric sectors remains weak, with procurement primarily focused on long-term contracts [68] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and asset quality of leading coal companies, emphasizing their investment value [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in production in H2 2024, while Q1 2025 sales are impacted by declining market demand [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 29.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.268 billion yuan, down 46.75% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, total operating revenue was 4.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.17%, with a net profit of 255 million yuan, down 56.29% year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.94, 1.01, and 1.15 yuan respectively, with a target price of 10.33 yuan based on a PE ratio of 11x for 2025 [2] Group 2: Production and Sales - In 2024, the company's raw coal production was 32.9789 million tons, down 15.40%, while self-produced coal sales were 26.7336 million tons, down 23.31% [2] - Trade coal sales increased by 7.6% to 18.99 million tons [2] - In Q1 2025, raw coal production reached 9.086 million tons, up 20.92% year-on-year, while self-produced coal sales were 4.416 million tons, down 19.15% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Cost Management - The company has optimized cost control, with Q1 2025 costs significantly reduced both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2024 was 645.85 yuan/ton, down 8.5% year-on-year, while the average selling price for trade coal was 614.49 yuan/ton, down 7.2% [3] - The company expects to maintain a cost reduction of 30 yuan/ton in 2025 to offset the impact of declining coal prices [3] Group 4: Coal Trading Business - In 2024, the company achieved coal trading revenue of 11.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.59%, with a trading volume of 18.9963 million tons, up 7.66% [4] - For Q1 2025, coal trading revenue was 1.672 billion yuan, down 35.28% year-on-year, with sales volume of 3.2128 million tons, down 16.18% [4] - The company has successfully developed new coal sourcing channels from Malaysia and Indonesia, optimizing the structure of imported coal sources [4]