2月2日，上海石化跌5.21%，截至发稿，报3.09元/股，成交2.24亿元，换手率0.98%，总市值325.77亿 元。 资料显示，中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司位于上海市金山区金一路48号，成立日期1993年6月21 日，上市日期1993年11月8日，公司主营业务涉及原油加工、整系列的油品、化工产品、基本有机化学 产品、合成纤维及单体、塑料及制品、聚酯纤维、针织纺织原料及制品、工业及燃料的生产和经营、其 他副产品的生产和经营和铂族金属的生产与加工。主营业务收入构成为：炼油产品67.95%，化工产品 21.60%，石油化工产品贸易9.77%，其他(补充)0.53%，其他0.15%。 国泰富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF（159399）成立日期2025年2月19日，最新规模48.72亿。今年以 来收益4.4%，同类排名3044/5579；成立以来收益22.74%。 国泰富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF（159399）基金经理为麻绎文。 截至发稿，麻绎文累计任职时间2年180天，现任基金资产总规模136.57亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 135.9%， 任职期间最差基金回报-10.96%。 声明：市场有风险，投 ...

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,827, down 2.58% for the day but up 8.57% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,978, with a slight decrease of 0.01% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 1.94%[3] Stock Performance - Gold prices surged, with spot gold exceeding $5,280 per ounce, marking a monthly increase of over 22%[9] - Semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 2.34%[9] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Intel up 11.04% and Microsoft down 6% post-earnings report[9] Sector Highlights - Oil stocks continued to rise, with Shanghai Petrochemical gaining over 5% due to geopolitical tensions driving oil prices up by 3%[9] - New consumer concept stocks performed well, with a snack retail chain soaring 69% on its debut[9] - Airline stocks faced pressure, with China Southern Airlines down 6.83% due to rising operational costs[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell to 95.51, the lowest since February 2022, contributing to the rise in gold prices[9] - The Japanese yen strengthened, impacting export-related stocks negatively, with Toyota down 3.24%[13] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, indicating a cautious approach to future rate hikes[13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged period of negative growth in PPI, with projections suggesting a recovery phase starting around 2026 as domestic and international demand rebounds [2][3] - The chemical market has seen significant price increases recently, with epoxy propylene prices rising by 7.9% in the week of January 12-18, indicating potential upward momentum in the sector [2] - The chemical industry is characterized by a cyclical nature, typically following a five-year cycle of "profit upturn - capacity expansion - profit bottoming - capacity clearance/demand expectation improvement," suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming phase [2] Group 2 - Major chemical companies, such as China National Chemical Corporation, hold over half of the global market share, which may lead to a decrease in capital expenditure intensity and an increase in dividend payout ratios in the coming years [3] - The recent winter storm in the U.S. has disrupted natural gas and electricity supplies, affecting chemical production in key areas like Texas, which may impact global supply stability for major chemical products [3] - The domestic chemical sector is at a dual inflection point in terms of capacity and inventory cycles, with potential supply declines from overseas benefiting domestic production rates and overall industry recovery [3] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed companies in the chemical sector include Sinopec (600028), Sinopec Oilfield Service (600871), Sinopec Engineering (02386), Shanghai Petrochemical (600688), and others [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical has successfully achieved the complete localization of the core sealing component rotor plate of the S-601 rotary valve in its aromatic division, marking the first domestic production of this component and breaking the long-standing foreign monopoly [1] Group 1: Localization Achievement - The S-601 rotary valve, previously imported, had its rotor plate subject to high technical barriers, leading to reliance on foreign suppliers [1] - To address this "bottleneck" issue, Shanghai Petrochemical formed a specialized team with East China University of Science and Technology and Yangzhong Sanli Machinery Co., Ltd. in December 2024 to initiate domestic development [1] - The team completed the first prototype by June 2025 and optimized key indicators, achieving product acceptance by October of the same year [1] Group 2: Performance and Implementation - The domestic rotor plate was installed during a maintenance window in November 2025, demonstrating excellent sealing performance and stable operation, meeting the expected targets [1]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.14% compared to the previous trading day, with Runbei Hangke leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] Stock Performance - Runbei Hangke (001316) closed at 51.30, up 7.55% with a trading volume of 97,700 shares and a transaction value of 473 million [1] - Daqing Huake (000985) closed at 21.85, up 2.25% with a trading volume of 61,000 shares and a transaction value of 132 million [1] - Wanbangda (300055) closed at 8.35, up 2.20% with a trading volume of 255,100 shares and a transaction value of 209 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Heshun Petroleum (603353) at 35.56, up 1.80%, and Dongfang Gan (000301) at 12.46, up 1.30% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 166 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 105 million [2] - The sector's main funds saw significant movements, with China Petroleum (601857) having a net inflow of 97.27 million, while Runbei Hangke (001316) had a net inflow of 48.87 million [3] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) also saw a net inflow of 37.44 million, indicating strong interest from main funds [3]

中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司，成立于1993年，位于上海市，是一家以从事石油、煤炭及其他燃 料加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本1054261.75万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石化上海石油 化工股份有限公司共对外投资了21家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息51条，专 利信息1356条，此外企业还拥有行政许可12814个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司、中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司取得一项 名为"一种再生塔腐蚀防控方法"的专利，授权公告号CN115990395B，申请日期为2021年10月。 天眼查资料显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事石油和天然 气开采业为主的企业。企业注册资本12173968.9893万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油化工 股份有限公司共对外投资了269家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息45条，专利 信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可41个。 ...

中国成品油周报 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F3108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 137/137/137 供应端，周全国炼厂开工上行0.8个百分点至71.4%，主营开工持续上行1.5个百分点至78.8%，云南石化开工继续上行，上海石化检修完成；地炼 开工持续下行0.3个百分点至53.6%，山东地炼开工率环比继续下跌，部分炼厂减产柴油，神驰化工等两家地炼进入全厂检修持续，大部分炼厂开 工稳定无新停开工。本周主营和地炼汽柴油产量均小幅上行。柴汽比下跌0.01至1.31。需求端，市场中下游采购积极性转弱，市场情绪消极，汽 柴油船单成交稳定车单产销下滑，汽柴产销率均下行。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油11 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Insights - US natural gas prices saw a significant increase on January 25, with futures prices reaching $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [1] - EIA forecasts a natural gas average price of $3.46 and $4.59 per million British thermal units for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a downward adjustment in price expectations [2] - Companies involved in the natural gas industry include Sinopec, which engages in the entire value chain from extraction to end supply [3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with EIA predicting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by 2026 [2] - The average crude oil prices are projected to be $56 and $54 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Sinopec is involved in upstream oil resource development, while Shanghai Petrochemical focuses on refining and production of refined oil products [5][6] Group 3: Petrochemical Industry Insights - Sinopec manufactures basic petrochemical products such as olefins and aromatics, covering multiple segments of the petrochemical value chain [8] - Hengli Petrochemical operates in an integrated refining and petrochemical business model, processing raw materials into manufactured products [8] - Hongchuan Wisdom provides storage and logistics services for petrochemical products, participating in the warehousing and distribution segment of the petrochemical industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a significant net loss for the year 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices, weak product demand, narrowing refining margins, and a major maintenance shutdown in the fourth quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 23, 2026, Shanghai Petrochemical's stock closed at 3.07 yuan, a 7.72% increase from the previous week's 2.85 yuan [1]. - The stock reached a high of 3.11 yuan and a low of 2.83 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 32.366 billion yuan, ranking 9th out of 30 in the refining and trading sector and 666th out of 5182 in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Shanghai Petrochemical forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 12.89 billion yuan and 15.76 billion yuan for the year 2025 [1][3]. - The expected net loss after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 12.80 billion yuan and 15.64 billion yuan [1]. - The previous year's net profit was reported at 3.165 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Reasons for Loss - The anticipated losses are attributed to several factors: the decline in international crude oil prices, weak market demand for products, reduced refining margins, and a significant maintenance shutdown affecting production volumes in the fourth quarter [1][3]. - The average processing cost of crude oil for 2025 is expected to decrease by 9.57% year-on-year [2].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a net loss of approximately 1.289 billion to 1.576 billion yuan in 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices and reduced demand for its products [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Shanghai Petrochemical anticipates a net profit loss of about 12.89 billion to 15.76 billion yuan, with a similar range for its non-recurring net profit loss [2] - The company reported significant losses in 2022 and 2023, with a net loss of 2.872 billion yuan in 2022 and a net loss of 1.406 billion yuan in 2023 [6][7] - The revenue for 2022 was 82.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.57% year-on-year, while 2023 saw an increase in revenue to 93.014 billion yuan, a growth of 12.72% [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average annual price of WTI crude oil in 2025 is projected to be $64.73 per barrel, a decrease of 14.55% year-on-year, while Brent crude is expected to average $68.19 per barrel, down 14.62% [3] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are also expected to decline in 2025, with gasoline averaging 8,282 yuan per ton (down 5.76%) and diesel at 7,146 yuan per ton (down 5.51%) [3] Group 3: Product Pricing and Demand - The prices of key chemical products produced by Shanghai Petrochemical, such as polyethylene and polypropylene, are expected to decline significantly in 2025, with polyethylene prices dropping by 20.28% [4] - The average price of paraxylene is projected to decrease from $940.74 per ton in 2024 to $814.75 per ton in 2025, reflecting a 13.39% decline [5] - The demand for traditional petroleum products is under pressure due to the rise of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources, leading to a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption [7] Group 4: Operational Challenges - The company faced operational challenges due to maintenance shutdowns, which impacted production and increased material and energy consumption [5] - The overall refining profit margin for independent refineries in Shandong is projected to be low, averaging 260.1 yuan per ton in 2025 [4]