日前，白酒上市公司2025年半年报已全部出炉，行业整体业绩图景浮出水面。 在这一背景下，"主动降速，控量稳价"成为众多酒企的共同选择，尤其在制定2025年度目标任务时，普 遍将"稳"作为关键词。茅台将今年营收增速锁定在9%左右，强调企业由高速增长向稳健发展换档;五粮 液提出"2025年营业总收入力争与宏观经济指标保持一致"，将自身发展与宏观大势深度绑定;古井贡酒 则明确"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"，一个"稳"字道尽笃定。 "稳字当头，稳中求进"不仅是宏观经济的总基调，此刻也成为白酒行业穿越周期迷雾的"定海神针"。这 种战略定力，是酒企在不确定性中寻找确定性的关键，目标的审慎与弹性，恰是酒企在行业调整期实 施"进攻性防御"战略的智慧体现。 基于这一思路，在市场运营策略上，酒企们展现出更为灵活的机动性。数据显示，今年上半年，在20家 白酒上市公司中，共有9家企业通过降低合同负债为传统渠道减压。在这背后，主动放宽经销商打款要 求，并同步进行停货稳价，成为酒企们的主要策略。 据佳酿网不完全统计，今年以来，近20家酒企先后发布了停货通知，包括五粮液、洋河、今世缘、汾酒 等上市企业，以及郎酒、习酒等非上市品牌。 众 ...

文|新消费财研社 "降度"已成为2025年中国白酒行业最热门的关键词。 8月底，五粮液推出29度"一见倾心"低度酒新品拉爆关注度，这款产品邀请邓紫棋代言，在抖音直播间一夜售罄。 方正证券认为，这款产品不仅是五粮液在低度酒市场的重要布局，也是五粮液与年轻消费群体沟通的重要桥梁。该产品的推出，将打破传统白酒厚重的商务 标签，成为年轻人"微醺消费"与"轻松社交"的载体，展现了五粮液在品牌年轻化道路上的战略远见与创新实践。 除了五粮液之外，泸州老窖宣布28度国窖1573已研发完成，洋河股份计划在八九月份集中上市果酒、露酒和低度潮饮，舍得酒业于近日推出29度低酒度产 品"舍得自在"…… 头部酒企纷纷降"度"谋变，这背后是中国酒业对年轻消费群体的迫切渴望。 酒企密集布局，低度酒产品迎来爆发期 中国低度酒市场正以惊人的速度扩张。行业数据显示，中国低度白酒市场规模从2020年约200亿元，一路攀升至2024年的570亿元，并预计在2025年突破742 亿元关口，年复合增长率高达30%。 这种爆发式增长背后是消费主体的代际更替。如今，90后、00后消费者正在成为酒水消费的主力人群，他们的偏好深刻影响着市场走向。 年轻人普遍排斥 ...

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.98% on September 3, with Yili Te leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed varied performance, with the following notable changes: - Shede Liquor: Closed at 67.25, up 0.13% [1] - Kweichow Moutai: Closed at 1480.55, down 0.72% with a trading volume of 45,000 shares and a transaction value of 6.656 billion [1] - Wuliangye: Closed at 126.62, down 1.51% with a trading volume of 302,900 shares and a transaction value of 3.883 billion [1] - Yili Te: Closed at 15.56, down 3.35% with a trading volume of 78,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.25 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 726 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 479 million [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Shede Liquor: Net inflow from institutional investors was 59.79 million, while retail investors had a net outflow of 17.44 million [3] - Kweichow Moutai: Experienced a net outflow of 14 million from institutional investors [3] - Yili Te: Had a net outflow of 2.68 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently experiencing a downturn, with many companies reporting declining performance. However, some analysts believe this could signal a bottoming out and potential recovery in the future [1][12]. Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, 15 out of 21 listed baijiu companies reported declining performance, with only 6 companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, showing positive growth [1][4]. - The overall industry is facing significant challenges, with many companies returning to average performance levels after years of high growth [4][11]. Company-Specific Insights - Leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye continue to show resilience, maintaining their positions despite a slowdown in growth [5][9]. - Companies such as Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiuzi Jiu have reported significant declines, with Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue dropping by 24% and net profit by 35% in Q2 [2][8]. - The performance of Shanxi Fenjiu has slowed, with growth rates returning to single digits after years of double-digit increases [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a clear trend of market share concentrating among top brands, while smaller and regional brands struggle to maintain their positions [10][11]. - The number of regulated baijiu companies has decreased, indicating a consolidation trend within the industry [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the second half of the year may see a potential rebound, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which could provide a window for price stabilization and recovery [12][13]. - Despite recent stock price increases, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with many expecting that a full recovery may take until late 2025 or beyond [13][14].

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅%↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | # | -2.79 | 212亿 | 18.57 | | 600559 | 老白干酒 | | -2.72 | 164亿 | -11.80 | | 600197 | 伊力特 | | -2.48 | 74.29亿 | -6.18 | | 600199 | 金种子酒 | | -2.22 | 72.29亿 | -17.37 | | 600779 | 水井坊 | 美 | -2.16 | 221亿 | -13.24 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 家 | -2.02 | 881亿 | 0.33 | | 002646 | 天佑德酒 | 策 | -1.98 | 47.53亿 | -7.62 | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | | -1.78 | 1981亿 | 12.82 | | 603589 | 口子窖 | # | -1.71 | 203亿 | -10.15 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | | -1.67 | 1092亿 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, influenced by changing consumer habits and market competition, leading to a divergence in performance among companies [1][5] - Major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have shown steady growth in revenue and net profit, while many others are experiencing declines [3][5] - The shift towards consumer-driven strategies is crucial for companies to adapt to market demands, with a focus on low-alcohol products to attract younger consumers [1][6][7] Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, the number of large-scale liquor companies decreased to 887, indicating a contraction in the industry [5] - The liquor production volume was 1.9159 million kiloliters, down 5.8% year-on-year, while sales revenue slightly increased by 0.19% to 330.42 billion yuan [5] - Profit for the industry fell by 10.93% to 87.687 billion yuan, reflecting a challenging market environment [5] Market Trends - The average inventory turnover days for the industry increased by 10% to 900 days, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversions, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range [3] - The low-end and light bottle liquor segments are performing relatively well, with the main consumer price range being 50-200 yuan [3][4] - High-end liquor products in the 500-800 yuan range are facing significant price inversions due to oversupply and reduced demand for gift and business consumption [4][5] Consumer Behavior - There is a notable shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards online channels, with many consumers preferring to buy liquor online rather than in physical stores [6] - Companies are responding to changing consumer preferences by launching low-alcohol products, with several brands introducing new offerings aimed at younger demographics [6][7] - The trend towards health-conscious consumption is driving the demand for low-alcohol options, which helps companies expand their market reach and adapt to evolving consumer needs [7]

中秋临近，阖家团圆宴上，以杯盏承团圆，以醇香诉安康，藏在杯盏里的温情与仪式感，早已深植中国人心中。美酒承托福愿、凝聚福运，每逢团聚庆祝时 刻，平日里奔波于事业、牵挂着家庭的人们，得以暂歇脚步。围坐一堂时，总少不了几杯美酒作伴，酒杯轻碰的清脆声响里，各种聚福画面也随之愈发鲜 活：借着酒香分享喜事、分享暖意、送上祝福，一杯聚福的团圆酒总能让人们的情感更显醇厚。 在承载着团圆与福愿的宴席上，总少不了美酒相伴。为何美酒成为聚福标配？渊源可以追溯至3000年前。彼时，美酒承载祭祀祈福之意，"聚福"基因自此埋 下。而到了元末明初，这份渊源从祈福坛上融入民间。成都水井坊街上一座酒坊，成为市井聚福之地，陪伴一代代人共庆佳节。延续着古蜀酿艺的精髓，承 接了千年"聚福"的文化内涵，如今，这座酒坊再次洞开时空之门，循着中华最早福字"天福"的文化渊源，联袂微信礼物敬献"中秋第一福"，为大家打造一个 有着"酒坊特色"的聚福场景，邀请全民聚福、传递美好。 9月19日，水井坊与微信礼物联袂打造的"聚福节"即将开幕。活动联动线上线下，邀全民中秋庆团圆，"月聚越有福"。活动期间，消费者可以参与"聚福兑好 礼"活动，还可以领取专属福卡，将"贵人 ...

当下，多家酒企正陆续交出上半年成绩单。与2022—2024年白酒行业普遍两位数增长相比，2025年白酒 上市公司增速放缓或负增长或将成为普遍现象，白酒行业进入"政策调整、消费结构转型、存量竞争"三 期叠加的深度调整期。 | 品牌 | 半年营收/亿 | 同比 | 利润/亿 | 同比 | 核心亮点/问题 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 直销占比 44.76%(400.1 亿元),国际化收入 | | 茅台 | 910.94 | 9.16% | 454.03 | 8.89% | 28.93 亿元(+31.26%),i 茅台贡献 107.6 亿元。 | | | | | | | 第八代五粮液在千元价位段市场份额保持稳定, | | | | | | | 经典五粮液系列重点打造北京、上海等样板市 | | 五粮液 | 527.71 | 4.19% | 194.92 | 2.28% | 场,高端酒收入占比进一步提升。上半年五粮液 | | | | | | | 产品销量 2.73 万吨(同比 + 12.75%),吨价约 | | | | | | | 150.8 万元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for leading companies in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, while suggesting a hold for Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [10][9]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant clearing phase due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" policy, with second and third-tier companies facing substantial challenges, while leading firms show resilience [1][9]. - The report anticipates that the financial statements of leading liquor companies will signal an industry turning point, potentially reshaping market expectations and indicating a gradual emergence of the industry bottom [9][1]. - The demand for liquor is expected to continue recovering, driven by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased corporate profitability [1][9]. Revenue and Net Profit - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry reported revenues of 881 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 312 billion yuan, down 7.5% [2][13]. - For the first half of 2025, the industry generated revenues of 2,415 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% in revenue and 1.2% in net profit [2][13]. - Excluding Moutai, the industry's revenue in Q2 2025 was 484 billion yuan, reflecting a more significant decline of 13.1% [2][13]. Profitability - The overall gross margin of the liquor sector is under pressure due to declining prices and structural changes, with high-end liquor experiencing a slight decrease in gross margin [4][28]. - Many companies have increased their expense ratios to cope with price declines and intensified competition, although some have managed to reduce costs through digitalization and refined channel management [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong leading companies and those that have cleared their market burdens first, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, while also monitoring companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu for potential growth contributions in the second half of 2025 [9][10]. - The anticipated recovery in liquor demand and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 present a favorable investment landscape for the sector [9][1].

文 | 酒业内参 张奥 或许是为了给渠道再度注入信心，又或是面对不断破价的产品不能再坐以待毙，水井坊在此前发布了一份对旗下核心产品停货的公告。公告称，臻酿八号500毫升装全渠道停货，直至另行通知为 多位百荣二批商向《酒业内参》表示，臻酿八号最近批价有所回暖，单件批价为1720元，单瓶批价约300元，"至少要先把库存降低"。短期内，该政策的确有一定效果，但若拉长时间而言，效 另外，水井坊还面临着高端化战略受阻的状况，尤其是典藏和第一坊系列，在面对全国名酒的攻势往往显得力不从心。"我们推广高端产品时，消费者常常会问为什么不买茅台或五粮液？"有经销 独立酒类评论人肖竹青分析，茅台之外的整个名酒品牌可替代性很强，品牌心智资源占位和心理价位预期很模糊，容易被替代，比如说水井坊，舍得酒，剑南春，梦之蓝，古井贡古20等这些酒厂 10年换帅6次，战略缺乏连贯性？ 分季度来看，水井坊今年第一季度营业收入9.59亿元，同比增长2.74%，归母净利润1.9亿元，同比增长2.15%。若由此推算，水井坊第二季度的实际营业收入为5.39亿元，同比大降31%，归 针对业绩亏损，水井坊表示，2025年上半年，白酒行业整体仍处于深度调整阶段。 ...