1月29日，伊利股份盘中上涨2.03%，截至14:16，报26.67元/股，成交29.75亿元，换手率1.81%，总市值 1686.97亿元。 截至9月30日，伊利股份股东户数42.68万，较上期增加8.74%；人均流通股14747股，较上期减少 8.04%。2025年1月-9月，伊利股份实现营业收入903.41亿元，同比增长1.81%；归母净利润104.26亿元， 同比减少4.07%。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2.37亿元，特大单买入3.71亿元，占比12.47%，卖出3.89亿元，占比 13.06%；大单买入7.59亿元，占比25.50%，卖出9.78亿元，占比32.88%。 分红方面，伊利股份A股上市后累计派现616.02亿元。近三年，累计派现250.14亿元。 伊利股份今年以来股价跌6.75%，近5个交易日跌0.52%，近20日跌7.04%，近60日涨0.30%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，伊利股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股5.16亿股，相比上期减少1.55亿股。中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第五大流通股东，持 股1.82亿股，持股数量较上期不变。华 ...

（作者｜周琦 编辑｜张广凯） 1月中旬，一则资本市场公告在平静的乳业界激起涟漪。 中国乳业龙头伊利宣布，将以"先卖后买再加仓"的操作，增持上游核心伙伴优然牧业。 一进一出，伊利掏出11.73亿港元，对优然牧业的持股比例仅从33.93%微升至36.07%。 2025年10月，原料奶均价3.04元/公斤，较去年同期下跌9.2%，截至2025年12月第三周，主产省份生鲜乳平均价格已跌至3.03元/公斤，价格水平跌回2010 年，创下十年新低。 这已是奶价磨底的第四年，行业哀嚎遍野，伊利为何甘愿在周期谷底加码优然牧业？ 挣钱不易 优然牧业并非传统意义上的牧场公司，而是一个覆盖从牧草种植、饲料加工到奶牛育种、规模化养殖、鲜奶生产的全产业链上游综合服务商。 这种纵向一体化的业务结构，使优然牧业成为国内乳业上游的独特存在。 2025年前6个月，公司营收为102.84亿元，较去年同期增长2.3%；股东应占溢利亏损2.97亿元，亏损同比收窄10.4%。 优然牧业分为"原料奶业务""反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案业务"两大业务。 "反刍动物解决方案业务"是优然牧业的独特优势。 该解决方案包含饲料业务、育种业务及奶牛超市，即向牧场供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy product industry is experiencing a decline in production, with a projected decrease in output for 2025 compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of dairy products in China is expected to be 2.67 million tons in December 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1]. - The cumulative production of dairy products in China for the year 2025 is projected to be 29.503 million tons, which indicates a cumulative decline of 1.1% [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the dairy sector include Yili Co., Ltd. (600887), Bright Dairy (600597), San Yuan (600429), New Dairy (002946), Huangshi Group (002329), Yantang Dairy (002732), Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910), and Pinwo Foods (300892) [1].

Core Viewpoint - The main task for dairy companies in the new year is to overcome declining performance, with many companies announcing profit warnings due to intensified market competition and weak consumer recovery. Companies are shifting towards scenario marketing and functional products to rebuild differentiated competition and seek new market growth [2]. Market Competition - The competition in the dairy market is intensifying, with traditional subscription models facing challenges from supermarkets, e-commerce, and instant retail offering lower-priced fresh milk. For instance, the price of mainstream low-temperature fresh milk is around 9 to 11 yuan for 900ml, while supermarket private labels can go as low as 7 to 8 yuan [4][5]. - Data from Nielsen IQ indicates that from January to November 2025, the growth rate of the domestic dairy market declined by 8.8%. Major dairy companies like Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming reported varying degrees of performance decline in their Q3 reports, with net profits remaining negative despite some recovery efforts [5]. Shift Towards Scenario and Functional Products - Since 2023, growth in the domestic dairy sector has primarily been driven by product structure upgrades, including increased protein content and a shift from ambient to low-temperature products. However, product homogenization continues to pose challenges, particularly in the low-temperature fresh milk segment, leading to price wars [7]. - Companies are focusing on rebuilding differentiation through high-value products and innovations in scenario-based and functional offerings. For example, Guangming Dairy has launched products targeting fitness enthusiasts and specific health needs, such as high-protein yogurt and functional probiotics [8][10]. - Yili's management emphasizes a transition from volume-driven growth to quality-driven growth, with structural growth being influenced by rising health awareness and demand for diversified dairy products in high-tier cities. The adult nutrition market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030, indicating significant potential for differentiated product categories [9]. Innovations and Market Strategies - Scenario-based products are a key focus for dairy companies, aiming to attract consumers by leveraging emotional value. For instance, Guangming Dairy introduced a product inspired by local cultural symbols, while San Yuan rebranded its fresh milk to emphasize local identity and freshness [10]. - Despite ongoing fierce competition in traditional liquid milk products, the shift towards functional and scenario-based innovations is seen as a way for companies to escape price competition and align with the growing trend of family nutrition [10].

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a rise of 0.51% on January 28, with Liziyuan leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Sector Performance - Liziyuan (605337) closed at 13.56, up 5.85% with a trading volume of 388,600 shares [1] - Sanyuan (600429) closed at 5.45, up 4.21% with a trading volume of 482,000 shares [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 254.51, up 3.54% with a trading volume of 47,700 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Weiwe (600300) up 1.65% and Qishi Dairy (920786) up 1.18% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 1.51 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.8 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 129 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Liziyuan had a net inflow of 62.55 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 17.26 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Yili (600887) saw a net inflow of 33.78 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 71.72 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Sanyuan (600429) had a net inflow of 22.36 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 27.12 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - The dairy industry is facing performance challenges due to homogenization leading to price wars, with companies struggling to maintain profitability as they adapt to changing market conditions [1][3] Market Competition - The competition in the dairy market is intensifying, with a notable decrease in subscription customers for companies like San Yuan, attributed to rational consumer spending and aggressive pricing from supermarkets and e-commerce platforms [2][3] - The price of mainstream low-temperature fresh milk ranges from 9 to 11 yuan for 900ml, while private label products can be as low as 7 to 8 yuan for the same volume, highlighting the fierce price competition [2] Industry Performance - Data from Nielsen IQ indicates an 8.8% decline in the growth of the domestic dairy market from January to November 2025, reflecting insufficient consumer demand [3] - Major dairy companies, including Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming, reported varying degrees of performance decline in their Q3 reports for 2025, with net profits remaining negative despite some operational adjustments [3] Product Innovation and Differentiation - Post-2023, growth in the dairy sector is primarily driven by product structure upgrades, focusing on enhancing nutritional content and transitioning from ambient to low-temperature products, although homogenization remains a challenge [4] - Companies are increasingly focusing on creating differentiated, high-value products through scenario-based and functional innovations to escape the price competition trap [4][7] - Guangming Dairy has introduced several innovative products targeting specific consumer needs, such as high-protein yogurt for fitness enthusiasts and functional probiotics for health management [5][6] Future Trends - The dairy industry is shifting from a growth-focused model to one that emphasizes diversification and precision nutrition, driven by rising health awareness among consumers [6] - The market for adult nutritional products is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential in differentiated product categories [6] - Scenario-based products are becoming a key focus for companies, aiming to leverage emotional value to attract and retain customers in a competitive market [7]

市 场 研 究 研报精选 食饮重仓比例持续下降，除酒类外的细分板块重仓比例回升 1 月游戏版号过审 182 款，腾讯《彩虹六号：攻势》强化 FPS 细分赛 道 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 28 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.18%，深成指收 涨 0.09%，创业板指收涨 0.71%。沪深两市成交额 28947.28 亿元。申 万行业方面，电子、通信、国防军工领涨，煤炭、农林牧渔、钢铁领 跌；概念板块方面，培育钻石、汽车芯片、国家大基金持股概念涨幅 居前，动物疫苗、禽流感、煤炭概念跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数 收涨 1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.5%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨跌 不一，道指收跌 0.83%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收涨 0.91%。 【重要新闻】 【2025 年全国规上工业企业利润总额同比增长】国家统计局公布数 据显示，2025 年全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 7.4 万亿元， 同比增长 0.6%，扭 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio continues to decline, dropping to 2.61% in Q4 2025, down 0.20 percentage points from the previous quarter, and significantly below the historical average of 6.77% since 2018 [1][10]. - Within the sector, the heavy holding ratio for sub-segments, excluding alcoholic beverages, has seen a rebound, with notable increases in categories such as seasoning and fermented products, dairy beverages, and snacks [2][13]. - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by liquor stocks, which occupy seven positions, with a total heavy holding ratio of 2.37% [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Heavy Holding Ratios - The food and beverage industry's heavy holding ratio has decreased to 2.61%, ranking sixth among 31 primary industries, down from fifth in the previous quarter [1][10]. - The liquor segment's heavy holding ratio has dropped to 2.26%, while other sub-segments like seasoning and fermented products, dairy beverages, snacks, and food processing have shown slight increases [2][13]. 2. Liquor Segment Analysis - The liquor segment remains a dominant force in the food and beverage industry, accounting for over 86% of the heavy holdings, although it has decreased by 1.76 percentage points [16]. - The top three liquor stocks by heavy holding ratio are Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, with significant fluctuations in their rankings [19][20]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with low valuations and high dividends providing strong support for stock prices. The inventory destocking cycle is expected to continue until mid-2026, with potential investment opportunities emerging in the second half of 2026 [25]. - For the broader consumer goods sector, growth is anticipated from product upgrades, particularly in beer and dairy, while the seasoning industry is expected to benefit from low raw material costs and the rise of customized solutions [4][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of valuation and fundamentals, presenting significant layout value. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery trend. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is becoming clearer, signaling a potential bottoming out of industry demand. The current valuation and policy bottom are resonating, gradually releasing pessimistic expectations and providing a safety margin for investment [7][35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with resilient demand for consumer goods and a continuous upward trend in the snack sector. The mismatch in the timing of the Spring Festival is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of stocking demand. The sector is expected to achieve rapid growth in Q1 2026 [7][35] Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In Q4 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.1%, down from 6.4% in Q3 2025. The allocation ratio for active equity funds was 4.0%, slightly down from 4.1% in the previous quarter, indicating a continued reduction in food and beverage allocations by active equity funds [4][13] - The overall number of shares held by funds in the food and beverage sector decreased in Q4 2025, with a general trend of reduced allocation to food and beverage companies. Notably, companies like Yurun Agriculture, Yili, and West Wheat Food saw an increase in market value held by funds, while companies like Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai experienced significant decreases [6][29][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: first, consider companies like Shede Liquor that have undergone sufficient adjustments and possess high elasticity; second, allocate to industry leaders such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong performance stability and risk resistance. The Spring Festival stocking is expected to be a core catalyst for the sector's performance [7][34] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in three sub-sectors: raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the catering supply chain. Companies such as Wei Long, Gan Yuan Food, Yan Jin Pu Zi, West Wheat Food, and Yili are identified as key investment targets, with beneficiaries including Yurun Agriculture, Mengniu Dairy, Anjixin Food, and Guoquan [7][38]

连续亏损两年半的优然牧业，即将等到大股东伊利的"输血"。 1月16日早间，优然牧业宣布，公司拟以不同方式向伊利股份全资子公司博源投资合计发行5.985亿股股份，合计募集资金约23.46亿港元。 作为全球最大原料奶供应商，优然牧业运营着100座现代化牧场。尽管背靠伊利，但依然无法逃脱乳业进入下行周期所带来的冲击，公司已经出现了超150 亿元的短期资金缺口。 对于优然牧业来说，能够在这个时候配股融资，犹如雨旱逢甘霖，但资本市场的态度似乎并不热情。 Wind数据显示，宣布配股后的3个交易日里（1月16日至20日），优然牧业股价不涨反跌，累计微跌0.9%。在此之前的1月15日，公司股价则直接暴跌 10.42%。 在股价下滑之外，优然牧业还面临着业绩压力。自2022年来，其利润持续亏损，2年半累计亏损超20亿元。 只是，等到伊利"输血"后，优然牧业能否"破局"？如果无法修复盈利能力，这笔资金又能维持多久？优然牧业又将如何熬过原奶价格下行周期？ 1 低价配股，伊利拟出手"输血" | 作者 | 王亚静 | 编辑 | 蛋总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美编 | 邢静 | 审核 | 颂文 | 一 ...