乳业概念资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | -0.79 | 0.60 | -6981.49 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | -7.76 | 17.37 | -6106.33 | | 600882 | 妙可蓝多 | -9.28 | 3.99 | -4879.61 | | 600429 | 三元股份 | -3.69 | 3.21 | -4181.09 | | 002183 | 怡亚通 | -2.60 | 2.67 | -3660.54 | | 605179 | 一鸣食品 | -2.05 | 1.72 | -3119.30 | | 002910 | 庄园牧场 | -1.27 | 13.15 | -1951.77 | | 002570 | 贝因美 | -0.97 | 2.58 | -1805.16 | | 300106 | 西部牧业 | -2.84 | 5.65 | -1428.25 | | 600965 | 福成股份 | -2.28 | 5 ...

这部短剧以一种前所未有的轻盈方式，回答了一个关键的问题：在经历了坎坷与重塑之后，中国奶业凭什么让国人重拾信心？ 今天的"国奶自信"，其底气究竟从何而来？ 高智女穿越1999，硬控"养牛方法论" 女博士用三天赌约赢回人生自主权，上演了一场始于技术自信的绝地反击。 在这部大火的微短剧《重生90》中，身处2025年的女主角尹利利原本是伊利集团的首席畜牧营养官，但是意外地，她一朝穿 越回1999年，从一名奶业学术专家变成一名被恶毒婶婶逼婚的农村姑娘。为了改变被逼婚的命运，她手上的一套来自未来的 《中国好牛奶&健康奶牛营养方案》，成了她以技术立身逆袭的起点。 让 国 人 喝 上 放 心 奶 。 撰 文｜ 岑 促 封 面 来 源｜ 《 重 生 9 0 》 剧 照 养 牛 天 花 板 居 然 这 么 高 了！ 近日，短剧《重生90：富豪榜我排第一，牛排第二》在短国掀起一波热度，剧中高智女主穿越回1999年被逼婚，却靠一本先 进的"养牛宝典"上演逆袭人生。短剧给观众带来爽感追剧体验的同时，剧中提到的养牛"黑科技"狠狠颠覆了这届网友的认知。 女主尹利利口中的"养牛"，不再是传统的粗放劳作，而是涉及精准营养、动物福利、数据监控等 ...

"虽然中国人的乳糖耐受性很差，但是如今中国人消费了世界上四分之一以上的牛奶。"香港树仁大学社 会学系副教授、香港中文大学人类学博士麦秀华在她的著作《牛奶狂潮：身体、科学与希望》中试图解 剖这个饮食结构发生巨大变化的典型范例。 过去人们普遍接受的观点是，现代化、生活方式西化以及牛奶在促进儿童生长方面的营养学意义，是中 国牛奶需求增长的主要原因。而麦秀华着力于分析常被忽略的一些因素：二战后的世界食物体系、政府 的作用、现代生活的医学化以及中国原有的乳制品文化。 2010年2月 27日，深圳光明农科大观园，晨光奶牛示范场的奶牛雕塑。视觉中国 图 二战后美国等发达国家以粮食援助的形式向亚洲和许多第三世界国家提供粮食出口补贴，改变了这些国 家人民的饮食方式，创造了新的饮食文化，日本的"拉面"就是一个典型的例子，来自美国援助的大量廉 价小麦面粉。麦秀华认为，20世纪80年代欧洲通过粮食援助计划向中国出口牛奶，为后来的"牛奶变 革"埋下伏笔；而雀巢等跨国乳品公司通过在中国建立生产工厂、积极开展营销活动，进一步推动了牛 奶及奶制品在东亚地区大肆扩张，深入人心。 政府的角色则在于支持乳业建设项目，体现在土地改革和乳业现代化、财 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《政策重视扩内需提消费 26 年重申看好顺 周期方向——食品饮料行业周报 行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 20251215-20251219》 2025/12/21 《高端酒批价反弹 重申白酒已在战略配置 期——食品饮料行业周报 20251208- 20251212》 2025/12/13 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251222-20251226 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 2025 年 12 月 28 日 茅台经销商会定调务实转型 临近 旺季密切关注动销 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 wangza@swsresearch.com | 1.食品饮料本周观点 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2. 食品饮料各板块市 ...

行业走势图 食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部 重视布局—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天 批价或止跌触底 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 白酒龙头抗风险能力突出，原奶供需平衡点渐行渐近 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：白酒布局价值显现，原奶供需优化催生投资机会 12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 0.6%，一级子行业排名第 25，跑 输沪深 300 约 2.5pct，子行业中保健品（+0.5%）、其他食品（+0.0%）、白酒（-0.2%） 表现相对领先。当前高端白酒行 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒出清、食品推新，关注春节旺季反馈 投资建议：1、白酒：2025 年充分释放风险，2026 年有望迎"供给先行、 需求渐进"双改善，当下动销、价盘、报表三重底部，短期元春动销环比 改善正向催化，中期维度动销、价盘、报表有望相继修复，配置短期基于 供给角度，中期基于格局与分红，建议配置：1）供给出清或边际改善： 泸州老窖、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、洋河股份、金徽酒等；2）中长期龙头： 贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、今世缘等。2、大众品：欧盟反补贴推动 深加工国产替代，关注春节备货食品催化，优先关注成长股、后续切换复 苏：1）复苏主线大餐饮链、乳制品等β弱修复可期：伊利股份、安井食 品、新乳业、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、巴比食品、立高食品等；2）成长主 线布局零食、饮料及α个股：东鹏饮料、农夫山泉、西麦食品、盐津铺子、 万辰集团、有友食品、安琪酵母、H&H 国际控股。 白酒：龙头积极优化供给，动销静待元春修复。近日古井贡酒召开全球经 销商大会，强调 2025 年在深度调整中守住了基本盘：一是持续优化产品 结构，核心支柱年 ...

如此市场环境下，乳业巨头纷纷承压。 第三季度，伊利营收同比下滑1.70%至286.31亿元。在上半年，蒙牛营收同比下滑6.9%至415.67亿元。 21世纪经济报道记者 贺泓源 市场波动下，乳业市场迎来变局之年。 客观上，这一市场还在收缩。据欧睿数据，2024年我国液态奶行业规模为3442亿元，对应 2011-2021年 CAGR为7.2%。此后，液态奶行业需求阶段性承压，2022-2024年CAGR为-4.2%。尼尔森IQ数据显示， 在2025年9月，乳品全渠道销售额同比下滑16.8%。 落地到区域乳企，则是分化加剧。 三季度，光明乳业液态奶收入同比下滑8.44%至35.40亿元。三元股份液态奶收入同比下滑13%至9.24亿 元。新乳业、君乐宝却保持扩张。 整个市场都在调整期。 显然，伊利在市场起伏中相对稳住了身位。 在2025年前三季度，伊利营收同比增长1.71%至905.64亿元；归母净利润同比下滑4.07%至104.26亿元。 伊利营收下滑，主要受到液体乳市场波动影响。前三季度，伊利液体乳收入同比下滑4.49%至549.39亿 元，其中第三季度液体乳收入同比下滑8.83%至188.1亿元。 背后是，市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) as the initial coverage [2]. Core Insights - Yili Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry, demonstrating strong operational resilience during industry adjustments. The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.2%, 3.7%, and 3.6% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 27.9%, 14.8%, and 8.7% for the same years [5][9]. - The dairy industry in China is entering a mature phase, with a retail scale projected to reach approximately 560 billion yuan in 2024. Yili's product matrix includes liquid milk as a base, with milk powder and dairy products, as well as ice cream, driving growth [5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Yili Co., Ltd. are 118.37 billion yuan in 2025, 122.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 127.14 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 10.82 billion yuan, 12.42 billion yuan, and 13.50 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34.4% in 2025 to 35.2% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7]. Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue is projected to stabilize at 750.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 0.1% [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues of 326.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [5]. - The ice cream business is anticipated to recover with double-digit growth, reaching revenues of 96.8 billion yuan in 2025, a 11% increase [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a "long-life milk leader" to a "platform dairy enterprise," actively expanding its product categories to mitigate risks associated with liquid milk demand [5][6]. - The company has established a robust national distribution network with over 5 million terminal points, enhancing its competitive edge across various product lines [6]. Growth Catalysts - The anticipated rebound in demand for infant formula due to increased birth rates in 2024 is expected to benefit Yili as a market leader in this segment [9]. - The adult nutrition market is expanding, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, providing further growth opportunities for Yili [9]. - The company's strategy in deep processing and high-margin B-end markets is expected to unlock additional revenue streams [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural opportunities arising from the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products, which are expected to benefit domestic alternatives such as cheese and cream [50]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing a weak recovery in consumption, with expectations of continued pressure on sales in the fourth quarter and first quarter of the following year, but a potential rebound in the second quarter due to low base effects [50][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels ahead of the Spring Festival and the operational goals set by various liquor companies for the upcoming year [51]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other regional brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) and Guojiao Liquor (000596) [51]. - The report notes that approximately 87% of stocks in the food and beverage sector recorded positive returns during the review period, with notable performers including Anji Food (+27.96%) and Huanlejia (+20.94%) [15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 12 to December 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 1.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.66 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the baking sector showing the highest increase of 7.63% [13]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1575 RMB/bottle, while Guojiao 1573 decreased to 840 RMB/bottle [21]. - **Condiments Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar decreased, with soybean prices at 4288.90 RMB/ton [24]. - **Beer Sector**: Aluminum prices increased while glass and corrugated paper prices decreased; barley prices remained stable at 2200.00 RMB/ton [29]. - **Dairy Sector**: Fresh milk prices rose slightly to 3.03 RMB/kg [37]. - **Meat Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 17.44 RMB/kg, with a year-on-year decline of 22.04% [39]. Important News - The report discusses the preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy measures for EU dairy imports, which is expected to positively impact domestic dairy producers [44][45]. - It also notes a decline in the production of white liquor and beer in November, with white liquor production down 11.3% year-on-year [43]. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to at least 75% of its net profit for the years 2024-2026, alongside a share buyback plan [52]. - Haitian Flavoring plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% of its net profit for the next three years [48].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603156 | 乔元饮品 | 26.60 | -2.28% | 5.66万 | 1.51亿 | | 300915 | 海融科技 | 24.42 | -2.16% | 1.17万 | 2875.51万 | | 600429 | 三元股份 | 5.42 | -1.81% | 40.57万 | 2.21亿 | | 600882 | 妙可蓝多 | 26.93 | -1.64% | 7.79万 | 2.11亿 | | 605300 | 佳木食品 | 12.00 | -1.64% | 4.08万 | 4921.46万 | | 605499 | 东鹏饮料 | 268.33 | -1.39% | 1.19万 | 3.20亿 | | 300892 | 品屋食品 | 31.75 | -1.34% | 2.89万 | 9226.72万 | | 605337 | 李子园 | 12.12 | -1.30% | 4.83万 | 5892.31万 | | 605388 | 均 ...