菌落总数远低于"万"级，乳品质量实现历史性突破 在我国奶业发展初期，国内牧场普遍采用分散饲养、人工挤奶、敞口运输，菌落数量一直是乳品的卫生安全隐患。随着人民生活水平提升，中国消费者对牛 奶有了更高的要求，国家陆续出台《乳品质量安全监督管理条例》、《全国奶业发展规划》，国家奶牛产业技术体系、中国奶业协会与龙头乳企共同推 进"从牧场到餐桌"的全链条升级。 经过多年的不懈努力，中国奶源建设已经全球领先，中国奶牛养殖业的规模化、标准化、数智化、集约化水平已在全球名列前茅。2003年开始，中国牛奶产 量一直位于全球前四，是全球牛奶主产区之一。而中国100头以上规模化养殖占比，已经从2005年的11.2%升至2024年的78%，自动挤奶、密闭管道、瞬时冷 却、冷链直送成为标配。我国现已连续17年实施生鲜乳质量安全监测，并实现抽检"全覆盖"，我国乳品质量达到了历史最好水平。 以伊利为例，在管理和技术的双轮驱动下，伊利的产品品质和管理成熟度均领先行业。数据显示，2023年至2024年，伊利旗下牧场的原奶菌落总数平均值连 续两年远低于1万CFU/mL(欧盟标准：≤10万CFU/mL)，实现了划时代的进步。这意味着伊利把百万头奶 ...

养殖规模、奶牛单产和原奶品质指标均实现从"跟跑"到"并跑"甚至"领跑"的中国奶业，用二十年左右的时间走过了奶业发达国家上百年的奶业产业化历程。 中国规模化养殖场生产的牛奶，乳脂率（脂肪比率）、乳蛋白率（蛋白质比率）总体水平已满足欧盟标准的要求，体细胞、菌落总数优于欧盟标准。 菌落总数能反映出牧场综合管理水平和卫生状况，被消费者高度关注，欧盟对生牛乳中菌落总数进行了限定（≤10万CFU/mL）。伊利每年使用的原奶近千万吨，面对如此巨大的 基数，2023年、2024年连续两年实现菌落总数平均值远低于1万CFU/mL，进入"千位数"时代，是一项重大进步。 "中国奶的质量安全是有保障的，完全可以放心地喝。"中国农业大学教授、国家奶牛产业技术体系首席科学家李胜利如此谈到。以直观透明数据，打消长期横亘在乳制品消费信 心上的流言，是一杯高品质的牛奶理应获得的公正对待。 规模化养殖效率提升，国内牛奶产量与奶牛单产迈入新台阶 7月13日，在第十六届中国奶业大会上，中国农业科学院原党组书记、国家食物与营养咨询委员会主任、中国奶业协会战略发展委员会名誉副主任陈萌山发布《世界奶业中国方 案：高质量引领的奶业现代化答卷》（下文称《报告 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 12 日 茅台完成半年经营任务 食品中期业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250707-20250711 《白酒批价暂稳 关注个股中报——食品饮 料行业周报 20250630-20250704》 2025/07/05 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 绩分化 相关研究 报 20250623-20250627》 2025/06/28 ⚫ 投资分析意见： ...

Group 1: Beverage Market Trends - The bottled beverage market is entering a peak season due to high temperatures, with Nongfu Spring's 1.5L "Oriental Leaf" tea gaining significant consumer attention [2] - In 2024, the beverage sector is projected to see a 7.8% year-on-year increase in total sales across all channels, with offline sales growing by 7.4% and online sales by 11.6% [2] - Health-oriented drinks, particularly ready-to-drink tea and functional beverages, are leading the growth with increases of 16.6% and 12.1% respectively, while carbonated drinks have seen a decline of 0.8% [2] Group 2: Sugar-Free Tea Market Dynamics - The sugar-free tea segment, once a market leader, is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with only a few brands like Nongfu Spring and Guozi Shule maintaining stable sales increases [3] - The market share of sugar-free tea has seen significant growth from 16% in January 2022 to 32% by December 2023, indicating a strong upward trend [7] - However, by 2025, the growth momentum for sugar-free tea has weakened, with negative year-on-year growth observed in March 2025 [10] Group 3: Electrolyte Drinks Emergence - The electrolyte drink market is witnessing a new wave of growth, with a 18% increase in new product launches from 2023 to 2024, and an annual growth rate of 11% for sports drinks [9] - The market for functional beverages in China reached 147.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.08% [9] - Electrolyte drinks are increasingly popular, especially among the growing sports population in China, which exceeds 500 million [10] Group 4: Sugar Tea Market Resurgence - The sugar tea market is experiencing a resurgence, with brands like Master Kong, Uni-President, and Nongfu Spring leading in market share and sales growth [15] - The market for sugar tea remains robust, with significant sales increases noted among brands like Yuanqi Forest and Wahaha, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [16] - Despite the rise of sugar-free tea, sugar tea still holds a dominant position, accounting for nearly 70% of the ready-to-drink tea market as of March 2025 [19] Group 5: Market Outlook and Consumer Behavior - The beverage market is at a turning point, with established consumer bases for both sugar and sugar-free tea, leading to competition for market share in overlapping consumer segments [20] - Efficiency in operations and pricing strategies will be crucial for brands to maintain their market positions amid increasing competition and market saturation [20] - The evolving consumer preferences suggest that a balanced approach between sugar and sugar-free options may be necessary for brands to thrive in the current market landscape [20]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with the Food ETF (515710) reaching an intraday increase of 1.33% before closing up 0.5% [1] - Major liquor stocks saw significant gains, with Lotus Holdings rising by 3.83%, and both Jinzhidao and Luzhou Laojiao increasing by over 2% [3] - Moutai Sauce Wine Company reported achieving its operational goals for the first half of 2025, which may boost investor confidence in the liquor sector [3] Group 2 - The food and beverage industry has undergone profound changes in both supply and demand since 2025, with a mix of upgrades and downgrades in consumer preferences [4] - Analysts suggest that the current industry transformation indicates a cyclical change, recommending companies with balanced product structures and healthy inventories [4] - Investment strategies should focus on stable demand leaders and companies innovating in new products and channels [4] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the China Securities Index for the food and beverage sector, with approximately 60% of its holdings in high-end and sub-high-end liquor stocks [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.82%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.93% during the week of July 7-11, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their strong brand and channel capabilities in the high-end liquor segment, despite current demand pressures [2] - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer highlighted for their growth potential [3] Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation initiated a safety initiative for the meat industry, emphasizing the importance of food safety and quality [4] Consumer Price Index - In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices increasing by 0.1% [5] Industry Trends - The demand for mass-market food products is expected to stabilize and grow in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends in healthy snacks and beverages [6] - The "Civilian Liquor Era" is emerging, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye developing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers [7][8] Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai held a channel partner meeting to discuss market expansion and service improvement [11] - Wuliangye Group established a new energy management company, indicating diversification into battery sales and energy management [12] Financial Forecasts - Major liquor companies are experiencing pressure on profit margins, with over half reporting declines in profits and revenues in the first half of 2025 [10] - The industry is undergoing significant executive turnover, reflecting strategic shifts in response to market challenges [10] Industry Data - The price of premium liquor is currently at 438.00 yuan per bottle, reflecting market dynamics [19] - The retail prices of major dairy products and the costs of seasoning raw materials are being monitored for trends [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is experiencing a paradox where companies are launching new products despite facing significant losses due to declining raw milk prices and overall market challenges. This trend indicates a potential shift towards innovation and self-rescue among dairy brands [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over 80% of dairy companies are currently operating at a loss, yet there has been a surge in new product launches, with 17 companies introducing 31 new products in the last two months [6][7]. - The domestic dairy product market is expected to see an increase in new SKU numbers for key categories like ambient milk, low-temperature yogurt, and cheese, indicating a rapid pace of innovation [6][7]. Group 2: Reasons for New Product Launches - The primary reason for the introduction of new products is the poor sales performance of existing products, prompting brands to seek new market segments and consumer groups [10][11]. - The dairy industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected 30% increase in dairy production in 2024, while consumption is only expected to grow by 3% [12]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Strategy - Dairy companies are launching new products at higher price points to maintain profit margins, as many new items exceed the average market prices of 10 yuan per liter for ambient milk and 20 yuan per liter for yogurt [13]. - There is a notable shift towards low-temperature dairy products, which now account for 60% of new launches, reflecting changing consumer preferences for fresher, healthier options [15][16]. Group 4: Target Consumer Segments - The silver-haired population and the trend of "snackification" represent significant opportunities for dairy innovation, addressing health needs and emotional value [17][18]. - The silver-haired demographic, despite being large, has low dairy consumption due to dietary habits and lactose intolerance, presenting a challenge for brands to meet their nutritional needs [18][19]. Group 5: Innovation and Marketing Strategies - Successful dairy products are increasingly driven by flavor and fun rather than just nutrition, with brands leveraging social media for marketing [20][21]. - Innovative product forms, such as the cross-category "frozen yogurt" from Jianai, exemplify how brands can extend shelf life and enhance consumer engagement through unique packaging and consumption experiences [21][22]. Group 6: Industry Outlook - The dairy sector is at a critical juncture requiring structural changes to avoid homogenization and enhance product value [24]. - Companies must focus on creating unique value propositions, whether through technological advantages or deep market understanding, to thrive in a competitive landscape [25].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the external guarantee situation of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd.'s wholly-owned subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Huishang Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd., for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting the total amount of guarantees provided to upstream suppliers and downstream distributors. Group 1: Guarantee Amounts - As of June 30, 2025, the total external guarantee amount provided by the guarantee company for the year is 203,953.76 thousand yuan, with 10,614.70 thousand yuan for upstream suppliers and 193,339.06 thousand yuan for downstream distributors [1]. - The number of external guarantee clients is 2,189, with 26 being upstream suppliers and 2,163 being downstream distributors [1]. Group 2: Top Five Guarantee Clients - The top five guarantee clients and their respective guarantee amounts are as follows: 1. Downstream distributor: 4,130.67 thousand yuan for a 7-month term for working capital loans to purchase company products [3]. 2. Downstream distributor: 1,499.82 thousand yuan for a 7-month term for working capital loans to purchase company products [3]. 3. Downstream distributor: 1,498.33 thousand yuan for a 9-month term for working capital loans to purchase company products [3]. 4. Downstream distributor: 1,495.33 thousand yuan for a 7-month term for working capital loans to purchase company products [3]. 5. Downstream distributor: 1,464.33 thousand yuan for a 7-month term for working capital loans to purchase company products [3].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing pressure from graduation banquets, but the stabilization of Moutai prices may boost confidence [2][13] - The approval of D-allohexose and the implementation of childcare subsidies are key investment opportunities in the consumer goods sector [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 30 to July 4, the food and beverage sector increased by 0.62%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54% [1][24] - Specific segments include meat products (+1.22%), liquor III (+1.20%), baked goods (+0.92%), and beverages (-1.64%) [1][24] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector saw a 1.20% increase, outperforming the overall food and beverage industry but underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2][13] - The price of 25-year Moutai (original) is 1935 yuan, up by 65 yuan from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in industry confidence [2][13] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The approval of new food raw materials and the rollout of childcare subsidies are expected to catalyze growth in the health products, soft drinks, snacks, and dairy sectors [4][15] - The childcare subsidy program provides 3600 yuan per child annually, which may positively impact the dairy sector [4][15] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, focus on companies benefiting from concentration and strong alpha, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [5][22] - In the consumer goods sector, recommend companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies, including Lihigh Food and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22]

食品安全温馨提示:消费者应当选择正规渠道购买食品并保留相应购物凭证，不在无证食品摊点选购食品，不购买有异色异味或来历不明的食品。 特此公告! 株洲市天元区市场监督管理局 2025年7月9日 食品抽检信息 | | | 样 | 标称 | | 被抽样 | | | | 生产 | | 承 | | 检 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 号 | 样品名 称 | 品 亚 | 生产 企业 | 标称生产企 业地址 | 单位名 | 被抽样单位地址 | 规格型号 | 商标 | 日期/ | 项目 | 检 机 | 抽样单编号 | 验 结 | | | | 类 | 名称 | | 称 | | | | 批号 | | 构 | | 论 | | 1 | 道道全 纯正菜 | 食 用 植 | 道道 全粮 油岳 阳有 | 湖南省岳阳 城陵矶新港 区长江大道 | 天元区 兵兵便 | 湖南省株洲市天元区 荟合路56号城际空间 | 1.8升/瓶 | 道道 全和 | 2024- 09-12 | 乙基麦芽酚,铅（以Pb ...