根据内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）2024 年年 度股东大会审议通过的《公司关于授权全资子公司内蒙古惠商融资担保 有限公司 2025 年为产业链上下游合作伙伴提供担保的议案》相关规定， 现对全资子公司内蒙古惠商融资担保有限公司（简称"担保公司"）2025 年第四季度对外担保情况披露如下： 一、截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，担保公司本年度累计对外担保总额为 515,437.25 万元，其中上游供应商担保总额为 19,451.56 万元，下游经 销商担保总额为 495,985.69 万元；担保责任余额为 223,157.82 万元， 其中上游供应商担保责任余额为 19,931.45 万元，下游经销商担保责任 余额为 203,226.37 万元。 二、截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，担保公司对外担保在保户数为 1,457 户，其中上游供应商在保户数为 17 户，下游经销商在保户数为 1,440 户。 证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2026-004 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于 全资子公司内蒙古惠商融资担保有限公司 2025 年 第四季度对外担保情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group announced the external guarantee situation of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Huishang Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd., for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting significant financial commitments and the nature of its guarantees [1] Summary by Categories External Guarantees - As of December 31, 2025, the total amount of external guarantees for the year reached 5.154 billion yuan, with 195 million yuan for upstream suppliers and 4.960 billion yuan for downstream distributors [1] - The balance of guarantee liabilities stands at 2.232 billion yuan [1] Number of Guaranteed Parties - The total number of guaranteed parties is 1,457, comprising 17 upstream suppliers and 1,440 downstream distributors [1] Major Guaranteed Parties - The announcement included details on the top five guaranteed parties, all of which are under joint liability guarantees, with good credit ratings and all executing counter-guarantees [1]

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.25% compared to the previous trading day, with Pinwo Food leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the beverage and dairy sector included: - Aluminum Wine Foods (300892) with a closing price of 35.68, up 12.56% and a trading volume of 112,000 shares, totaling 380 million yuan [1] - Huanlejia (300997) closed at 31.80, up 6.32% with a trading volume of 248,700 shares, totaling 763 million yuan [1] - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) closed at 12.02, up 4.43% with a trading volume of 245,600 shares, totaling 290 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 74.61 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 55.31 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks and their capital flow include: - Pinwo Food (300892) had a net outflow of 44.43 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also showing a net outflow of 26.15 million yuan [3] - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) saw a net inflow of 15.69 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 11.63 million yuan [3] - Knight Dairy (920786) experienced a net inflow of 11.26 million yuan from institutional investors, with a small net inflow from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned for growth with a strong dividend yield, a solid liquid milk business, and a second growth curve on the horizon, indicating a favorable turning point in the cycle [1] Group 1: Company Logic - High dividend commitments provide a safety margin, and the recovery in profitability exceeds expectations [1] - In a weak macro environment, high dividends attract many investors, while the company's strong operational capabilities reduce total operating costs [1] - The liquid milk business has passed its darkest hour, with upcoming benefits from low base and low inventory, alongside an impending industry cycle turning point that will further benefit the company [1] Group 2: Long-term Logic - Strategic upgrades and diversified drivers aim for high-quality profit growth, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [1] - The platform strategy drives the second growth curve, with liquid milk maintaining its leading position [1] - The company integrates global milk sources and R&D resources, coupled with a digital transformation across the entire industry chain to reduce costs and improve efficiency, ensuring long-term high-quality development [1] Group 3: Business Segmentation - The company focuses on diversified upgrades, emphasizing new growth areas such as functional nutrition, deep processing of dairy products, and non-dairy sectors [2] - The company's profitability relies on management efficiency, with cost and channel control leading to a net profit margin that surpasses competitors [2] - The business is divided into three main segments: liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, and frozen products, all of which lead the industry and support growth through collaboration [2] Group 4: Market Perspective - Despite being in a mature industry, the company still possesses growth potential due to a shift in competition from market share to product premiumization and channel refinement [3] - Structural opportunities exist within the dairy industry, with a focus on category upgrades and the need for R&D investment, indicating a trend where stronger companies will continue to thrive [3] - Rising raw milk prices alleviate industry price wars, benefiting profit margin recovery and helping leading dairy companies solidify their market share [3] Group 5: Investment Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1189.9 billion, 1250.4 billion, and 1302.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.8%, 5.1%, and 4.2% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 113 billion, 125.3 billion, and 134.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 10.9%, and 7.2% respectively [3] - The company is expected to have EPS of 1.79, 1.98, and 2.12 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's dividend yield as a safety margin, with a strong operational capability that reduces total costs. The liquid milk business is expected to benefit from a low base and low inventory, indicating an upcoming industry cycle turning point [3][4]. - The long-term strategy focuses on high-quality growth, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth. The company aims to optimize its product structure and enhance profitability through a platform strategy [4][23]. Company Investment Logic - **Short-term Logic**: High dividend commitments provide a safety margin, and profit recovery is exceeding expectations. The company is expected to benefit from a favorable macro environment and improved operational efficiency [12]. - **Long-term Logic**: The company is transitioning towards high-quality growth, with a focus on deep processing and functional nutrition products. The liquid milk business remains a strong foundation, while the company aims to achieve significant revenue in deep processing within five years [23][24]. Business Segmentation - The company is diversifying its business structure, focusing on new growth areas such as functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products. The liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drink segments are all leading in their respective markets [5][42]. - The liquid milk segment is the largest revenue contributor, while the milk powder segment has shown the fastest growth and highest profit margins, becoming a core growth engine for the company [48][53]. Market Perspective - Contrary to market views that the dairy industry has entered a mature phase, the report argues that the company still possesses growth potential due to structural opportunities and a shift towards high-end products [6][66]. - The recovery of raw milk prices is expected to benefit leading dairy companies, alleviating competitive pressures and improving profit margins [67]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1189.9 billion, 1250.4 billion, and 1302.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 113 billion, 125.3 billion, and 134.4 billion yuan. The report suggests that the company's high dividend yield and recovery in milk prices will support its growth trajectory [6][68].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to gradually refocus on the consumer sector due to the recovery of high-end consumption and certain mass-market products, along with the implementation of national subsidy policies and funding demands for "high-cut low" strategies [1] Group 1: Market Trends - High-end consumption, including luxury goods and gambling, shows improvement in demand, while some mass consumer goods like beer and dairy products are experiencing governance and structural enhancements [3] - The long-term policy encouragement and low interest rate environment are expected to boost equity allocation dynamics, particularly in high-dividend, stable performance stocks with valuation advantages [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong global competitive power, particularly in the white goods sector, are enhancing their operational models and supply chains, which is expected to positively impact overall performance [2] - The selected consumer sector stocks have an average dividend yield of over 5% and a projected PE ratio of 13X for 2026, indicating potential for long-term investment [4]

Summary of Yili Industrial (600887.SS) Corporate Day Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Industrial - **Industry**: Consumer & Leisure (Dairy Sector) Key Takeaways from the Corporate Day 1. **2025 Performance and Guidance**: - Management maintains guidance for positive sales growth and above 9% net profit margin (NPM) in 2025 - Growth driven by solid performance in non-UHT milk products and resilient UHT milk performance - UHT milk achieved stabilized market share; chilled liquid milk recorded positive growth in 9M25 - Cheese, milk powder, and ice cream delivered strong performance with double-digit percentage (DD%) sales growth in 9M25, expected to maintain for FY25 - Emerging channels (E-commerce, membership KAs, discounter stores, community stores) account for approximately 30% of UHT milk channel mix, while traditional supermarkets declined to 20% [1][1][1] 2. **2026 Outlook**: - Management expects improvement in raw milk supply/demand dynamics with herd cuts and stabilization of raw milk prices - Aims to outgrow the industry with positive sales growth in liquid milk in 2026, leveraging the Lunar New Year (LNY) season for growth through integrated marketing activities - Continued collaboration with emerging channels is planned - Confidence in cheese, milk powder, and adult nutrition products for 2026 [1][1][1] 3. **Infant Milk Formula (IMF) Strategy**: - Targeting double-digit percentage sales growth in milk powder - Aims to achieve No. 1 market share for Pro-kido by 2027, already holding No. 1 market share for Pro-kido + Ausnutria in 2025 - Anticipates a slight decline in new births in 2025 compared to 2024, but expects a slight increase in 2026 due to the Year of Horse in China [1][1][1] 4. **Long-term Growth Pillars**: - Cheese and dairy deep-processing identified as emerging long-term growth pillars - EU anti-dumping measures favoring domestic leaders in the Chinese dairy industry - Upgrades in adult nutrition and overseas business expected to drive incremental growth with potential double-digit percentage sales growth in 2026 [1][1][1] Financial Projections - **12-month Price Target**: Rmb33.90 - **Current Price**: Rmb27.68 - **Market Cap**: Rmb177.1 billion / $25.4 billion - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025: Rmb116.75 billion - 2026: Rmb119.00 billion - 2027: Rmb122.01 billion - **EBITDA Projections**: - 2025: Rmb16.10 billion - 2026: Rmb17.25 billion - 2027: Rmb18.55 billion - **EPS Projections**: - 2025: Rmb1.70 - 2026: Rmb1.79 - 2027: Rmb1.98 - **P/E Ratios**: - 2025: 16.3x - 2026: 15.5x - 2027: 14.0x - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to increase from 4.5% in 2025 to 5.4% in 2027 [7][7][7] Risks and Methodology - **Key Risks**: - Slower-than-expected demand for liquid milk premium products - Slower recovery in dairy demand - Increased competition [6][6][6] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from Yili Industrial's corporate day, highlighting the company's performance, strategic outlook, and financial projections.

New Product Launches - DQ and My Little Pony launched two new products: "Triple Berry Rainbow Cereal Blizzard" and "Miracle Magic Pony Cake Ice Cream" [2][4] - Wanglaoji collaborated with WAKUKU to release a colorful gift box containing 11 cans of Wanglaoji's 310ml beverage, priced at 139.9 yuan [4][5] - Heima launched a new "Rice Drink" made from high-quality Wuchang rice, suitable for breakfast and sports [4][5] - Let Tea introduced two new juice teas: Turmeric Lemon Tea and Three Grapefruit Juice Tea, with over 50% NFC juice content and no added sugar [5] - Joyoung launched a new soy milk product with a simple formula, containing 3.3g of protein per box [6] - Luckin Coffee partnered with the popular IP "Mo Dao Zu Shi" to launch non-coffee products, including Snow Tea and Strawberry Tea [6][7] - Yuanqi Forest entered the herbal tea market with a new product that features six herbal ingredients and no artificial additives [7] - Luxi River and Nestlé KitKat released a gift box containing "Oat Crunch Chocolate Peach Crisp" in two flavors [8] - Wei Chuan launched a new drink called "Horse Success Water," made from lychee and bamboo sugar [8] Industry Events - CoCo announced its expansion into 66 cities across 19 provinces in China since June 2024, focusing on lower-tier markets [11] - South Korean company Samjin Foods plans to increase its investment in China through a partnership with a local company for comprehensive operations [11] - RIMOWA released a new advertising campaign featuring actor Xu Guanghan to celebrate the Year of the Horse [11] - Burger King's online ordering system experienced a crash during peak times, leading to customer complaints [12][14] - Alipay's "Tap to Pay" feature surpassed 100 million daily transactions, expanding its application across various sectors [12] - Bawang Tea upgraded its 桂馥兰香 tea base with seasonal osmanthus flowers [12] - The Beijing Chocolate Museum opened, featuring a temperature-controlled environment to preserve exhibits [16] - IKEA announced the closure of seven stores in China starting February 2, 2026, after a comprehensive review of customer touchpoints [12] - Nestlé recalled infant formula in several European countries due to quality issues with a supplier's ingredient [17] - Muyuan Foods appointed Gao Dong as the new Chief Financial Officer [12] Investment and Financing - Kinotek raised $2 million for its sports analysis platform, which is already in use by MLB teams and top gyms [18] - Nutritional raw material producer Nuoyun Bio completed a Series A financing round with investments from multiple firms [18] - Bain Capital acquired the parent company of South Korean brand Andar for 216.6 billion KRW (approximately 1.046 billion yuan) [20] - Weiyuan Synthetic secured nearly 300 million yuan in a new financing round to accelerate its product development [18] - Only Group acquired a majority stake in British menswear brand Drake's [18] - Marubeni's US subsidiary acquired the Jacobson Group, which owns several footwear brands [18] - Acai Yogurt was confirmed to be acquired by Mei Yogurt, with the founding team stepping down [18] - FrieslandCampina completed the acquisition of a US whey protein company to enhance its production capacity [18] - 24 Hour Fitness's founder Mark Mastrov returned to lead the company after a buyout [18] - Fairfax Financial Holdings increased its stake in Under Armour to approximately 22% [18] Food and Beverage Trends - Uni-President launched a new 1L juice product line featuring grape and peach flavors, emphasizing zero fat and real fruit juice [25] - Yili signed actress Ma Yili as a brand ambassador for its marketing campaign for the Year of the Horse [25] - O'MILLS opened its first store in South China, focusing on naturally fermented and healthy food options [25] - Wei Family's music bistro opened in Xi'an, quickly gaining popularity on social media [25] - Black Sesame's controlling shareholder changed to Guangxi Travel Health Industry Group [28] - RIO launched a jelly alcohol product in two flavors, emphasizing a unique drinking experience [28] - Samyang collaborated with KFC to launch two new noodle products, priced at 19.9 yuan per cup [28] - Yakult introduced a limited edition packaging for the New Year, featuring auspicious colors and messages [28] - Grandpa's Farm submitted a listing application in Hong Kong [28] - Nongfu Spring released a zodiac commemorative glass bottle water, with 160,000 sets available through a lottery [31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand structure of raw milk is improving, and the snack food sector continues to show upward momentum. The food and beverage index increased by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as processed foods (+6.7%), soft drinks (+5.8%), and snacks (+4.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for raw milk are optimizing, and the snack food sector is experiencing sustained growth. The recent policy by the Ministry of Commerce to implement safeguard measures on imported beef is expected to alleviate the impact on domestic industries, leading to a potential increase in beef prices over the next 2-3 years. The domestic dairy sector is facing challenges, with a continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory, which may lead to a widening supply-demand gap post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.7 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, while stocks like Jiabi You, *ST Chuntian, and Xianle Health saw declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - As of January 6, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per ton, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year decrease. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term [19][21]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the improving raw milk supply-demand balance and the growth in the snack food sector. Notable mentions include: - Yuran Agriculture: Expected to benefit from the recovery in raw milk prices. - Modern Dairy: Anticipated to gain from the overall industry improvement. - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy: Expected to see positive impacts from the anticipated recovery in milk prices [10][11]. Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is projected to continue its upward trend, particularly during the Spring Festival season. Companies such as Weilang Delicious, Ganyuan Food, and Yanjin Food are highlighted for their potential growth due to seasonal demand and strategic initiatives [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, with expectations for a recovery in sales and valuation improvements in 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring with a focus on balancing volume and price, and a potential turning point is anticipated in Q3 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer price index (CPI) as a key indicator for the consumer goods sector, predicting gradual improvements in food CPI throughout 2026 [2][6]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also suggesting attention to Wuliangye and other brands [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview of Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.12% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 2.46%, although it underperformed the broader market by 1.70 percentage points [5]. - Notable stock performances included Ziyuan Food (+33.97%), Qianwei Central Kitchen (+22.52%), and Anji Food (+18.34%) [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sub-sectors - The food and beverage industry lagged behind the Shenwan A index by 3.06 percentage points, with various sub-sectors underperforming, particularly beverages and dairy [33][34]. 3. Liquor Pricing Trends - As of January 10, 2026, the price of Moutai was reported at 1540 RMB for loose bottles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 50 RMB, while the price for a case rose by 40 RMB to 1545 RMB [7][19]. - The report indicates that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks and suggesting a potential for price stability moving forward [7][19]. 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in competitive strategies from price-based to quality-based approaches among consumer goods companies, with expectations for improved margins as raw material costs stabilize [2][6]. - Recommendations for consumer goods include Anjijia Food, Yili Group, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on the supply chain related to condiments and frozen foods [8]. 5. Dairy Industry Outlook - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk [8][9]. - Yili Group's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion, and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [9].