Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase with the consumer sector performing well, as evidenced by the leading consumer ETF (159928) rising by 0.39% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 360 million yuan [1] - The consumer ETF has seen a net subscription of 28 million units today, accumulating over 1.6 billion yuan in the past five days [1] Group 2: Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the year reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% growth year-on-year at constant prices [3] - In December 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 0.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to November [3] - The per capita disposable income for residents in 2025 was 43,377 yuan, marking a nominal increase of 5% year-on-year, with a real growth of 5% after adjusting for price factors [3] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Policies - The focus on enhancing service consumption is evident, with a CAGR of approximately 9.6% in per capita service consumption from 2020 to 2024, expected to reach 46.1% of total consumption by 2024 [7] - The government aims to boost domestic demand and has outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" [3][7] - Policies are expected to support sectors such as elderly care, cultural tourism, and sports, with a focus on new consumption scenarios and enhancing service quality [4][8] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The consumer ETF (159928) is noted for its resilience across economic cycles, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 18.91, which is lower than 99% of the historical data over the past decade [4][9] - The top ten holdings in the consumer ETF account for over 68.55% of its weight, with significant representation from leading liquor brands and agricultural companies [9][10] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) is highlighted as an efficient investment vehicle for the consumer sector, particularly appealing to the younger generation [10]

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a slight decline of 0.18% on January 19, with Huanlejia leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] Sector Performance - The beverage and dairy sector saw mixed performances among individual stocks, with notable gainers including: - Quanyunquan (681009) with a closing price of 8.11, up 10.04% and a trading volume of 328,000 shares [1] - Xibumuy (300106) at 11.36, up 4.70% with 186,100 shares traded [1] - Zhuangyuanmucang (002910) at 12.02, up 4.34% with 226,300 shares traded [1] - Conversely, Huanlejia (300997) led the decline with a closing price of 26.12, down 5.09% and a trading volume of 225,400 shares [2] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 48.59 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 68.04 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed: - Quanyunquan had a net inflow of 72.37 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Yiyuan Beverage (600887) had a net inflow of 8.73 million yuan from institutional investors, with a slight net outflow from retail investors [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) and Soft Drinks - **Key Insights**: The Baijiu industry is nearing a bottom in terms of valuation, expectations, and holdings, with a potential turning point expected in Q3 2026. The soft drink market is showing strong performance from leading companies, with expectations for revenue growth above the industry average in 2026 [1][9]. Baijiu Industry Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The overall sentiment for Baijiu sales during the Spring Festival is cautious, with expectations of a year-on-year decline potentially reaching double digits. However, Moutai's significant price reduction may stimulate sales during low-frequency consumption scenarios [2][8]. - **Company Strategies**: - **Moutai**: Plans to stabilize overall product supply while adjusting the product mix to increase the availability of premium Moutai and 500ml Flying Moutai. This strategic shift is expected to have a profound impact on pricing and growth logic [4]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: Focuses on maintaining stable apparent prices and ensuring stability in pricing, channels, and organizational structure to provide growth momentum during the recovery phase [5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Moutai, Fenjiu, and local brands like Gujing Gongjiu are recommended for their market share logic, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are noted for their dividend security [1][8]. Soft Drink Market Insights - **Market Performance**: Leading companies in the soft drink sector are expected to maintain revenue growth above the industry average in 2026. Notable performers include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink, while Master Kong and Uni-President are seen as stable defensive investments [9][10]. - **Current Trends**: The market is experiencing significant competition, but leading companies are expected to leverage their channel and product advantages to maintain robust performance [9]. Tea Beverage Market - **Key Players**: Companies like Guming and Shanghai Auntie are rapidly expanding, with Guming planning to promote breakfast scenarios and Shanghai Auntie introducing coffee and health products. Both companies express confidence in same-store sales for 2026 [11]. Dairy Industry Insights - **Market Condition**: The dairy sector is currently experiencing weak demand but is expected to see a recovery in 2026. Companies like Yili, Mengniu, and New Dairy are recommended due to their stable fundamentals and growth potential [3][12][13]. Frozen Food Industry Insights - **Market Outlook**: The frozen food sector is showing positive prospects for 2026, with strong winter stocking and improved confidence among distributors. Companies like Anjijia, Qianwei Yangchun, and Sanquan Foods are optimistic about their outlook [14][15]. Seasonality and Consumer Behavior - **Consumer Trends**: The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to influence consumer behavior significantly, with increased stocking efforts noted across various sectors, including snacks and frozen foods. Companies are adjusting their strategies to meet this seasonal demand [17][18]. Recommendations for Investment - **Baijiu**: Focus on companies with strong market share logic and dividend security, such as Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [8]. - **Soft Drinks**: Invest in leading brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng, which are expected to outperform the market [9][10]. - **Dairy and Frozen Foods**: Look for opportunities in Yili, Mengniu, and Anjijia, which are positioned for growth in the recovering market [12][14]. Conclusion - The Baijiu industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for recovery in 2026, while the soft drink and dairy sectors are showing resilience and growth potential. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and strategic positioning to capitalize on upcoming market opportunities [6][9][12].

格隆汇1月19日｜中信建投研报指出，本周贵州茅台披露2026年市场化运营方案，对产品体系、运营模 式、渠道布局和价格机制进行全方位的改革。鸣鸣很忙通过港股聆讯，新店型推动细分领域复苏。伊利 参与优然配售后持股比例由33.93%增加至36.07%，彰显行业底部信心。大众品方面，把握餐饮链复苏 预期（关注新店型、商超定制）、健康化功能化高景气增长、成本周期优化等三大主线。展望Q1，关 注三条主线：一是跨年行情中零食、乳业等大众品领涨，白酒磨底蓄力待春节后修复；二是年报预告期 临近，大众品细分龙头有望利润超预期；三是 1 月下旬春节备货提振数据，叠加估值低位与情绪修复， 放大Q1业绩超预期弹性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group has been awarded the title of "2026 China's Outstanding Employer" by the Top Employers Institute, marking its second time receiving this honor and making it the only dairy company in China to achieve this certification in the current year [1] Group 1: Talent Strategy and Culture - Yili's recognition as a "China Outstanding Employer" reflects its commitment to a talent philosophy that emphasizes respect, cohesion, achievement, and development of individuals [1] - The company fosters an open and inclusive culture for new employees through innovative onboarding activities, allowing them to feel a sense of belonging and encouraging creativity from day one [2] - Yili has established a comprehensive talent development system that addresses diverse employee needs throughout their career stages, including the creation of a digital learning platform and innovative projects like the "AI Super Ability Exploration Plan" [2] Group 2: Employee Welfare and Engagement - Yili's "Spring Rain Plan," which has been in place for 14 years, integrates employee care into daily practices, offering over 40 benefits, with 85% being non-statutory [3] - The company organizes significant cultural events, such as the "2025 Elite Gathering," where employees celebrate with their families, reinforcing a sense of community [3] - Yili's commitment to sharing development results with employees is evident in its quality management and technological innovation efforts, ensuring tangible rewards for hard work [4]

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. is participating in a share placement and subscription of new shares in China Youran Dairy Group Co., Ltd. through its wholly-owned subsidiary, aiming to enhance its supply chain efficiency and secure high-quality milk sources for better development in the dairy processing business [1][6]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The company, through its subsidiary Boyuan Investment Holdings Ltd., holds a 33.93% stake in Youran Dairy. It will sell 299,250,000 shares at HKD 3.92 per share and simultaneously subscribe for the same number of new shares at the same price [1][2]. - The total subscription amount for the new shares is HKD 1,173,060,000 [3]. Group 2: Approval Process - The transaction was approved by the company's board of directors on January 14, 2026, with unanimous support, and does not require shareholder approval as it falls within the board's authority [3][4]. Group 3: Pricing Basis - The pricing for the sale and subscription was based on the latest market price of Youran Dairy prior to the agreement and was determined through fair negotiations between the parties involved [4]. Group 4: Financial Arrangements - Funding for the transaction will come from various sources, including potential capital increases from the company to Boyuan Investment and self-raised funds by Boyuan Investment [5]. Group 5: Impact on the Company - The transaction is strategically significant as it allows the company to secure high-quality milk sources and enhance its competitive position in the dairy industry, aligning with its long-term development goals [6].

（一）签署《配售及认购协议》 证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2026-007 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于 境外全资子公司参与中国优然牧业集团有限公司 配售及认购新股的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）通过境外全资 子公司博源投资控股有限公司（简称"博源投资"）及香港金港商贸控 股有限公司（简称"金港控股"）合计持有中国优然牧业集团有限公司 （9858.HK，简称"优然牧业"）33.93%的股权。为充分发挥公司供应链 高效协同优势，保障公司高品质奶源需求，更好地抓住乳制品深加工业 务发展契机，实现更好地发展，公司通过境外全资子公司博源投资参与 优然牧业配售及认购新发行股份。 一、本次交易基本情况 公司通过境外全资子公司博源投资参与优然牧业配售及认购新股， （1）博源投资作为卖方，与优然牧业、配售代理J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited（简称"摩根大通证券"）及中信里昂证券有 ...

Group 1 - The company, Yili Group, announced that it holds a total of 33.93% equity in Youran Dairy through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Boyuan Investment and Jinguang Holdings [1] - On January 16, 2026, Boyuan Investment will participate in the placement and subscription of new shares of Youran Dairy, selling 299 million shares at a price of HKD 3.92 per share, while subscribing to the same number of new shares, with a total subscription price of HKD 1.173 billion [1] - After the completion of the transaction, the company's total shareholding will increase from 33.93% to 36.07% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group has been awarded the "2026 China Top Employer" title for the second consecutive time, becoming the only dairy company in China to receive this certification in 2026, highlighting its commitment to a strong corporate culture and talent strategy [1][5]. Group 1: Talent Strategy - Yili's recognition as a "Top Employer" reflects its long-term commitment to the talent philosophy of "respecting, uniting, achieving, and developing people" [1]. - The company emphasizes an open and inclusive culture, allowing new employees to express their creativity and individuality from day one through innovative onboarding activities [5]. - Yili has established a comprehensive talent development system that supports career advancement at various stages, including initiatives like the "Kunlun Taihang Talent Program" and the "Anmuxi Cup Campus Innovation Competition" [7]. Group 2: Employee Welfare - Yili's "Spring Rain Plan," which has been in place for 14 years, provides over 40 benefits that address employees' daily needs and well-being, fostering a supportive workplace environment [9]. - The company celebrates employee milestones with personalized ceremonies and rewards, reinforcing the bond between the organization and its employees [9]. - Yili's commitment to sharing development outcomes is evident in its substantial rewards program, which distributed over 600 million yuan in bonuses to employees, recognizing their contributions to quality management and innovation [9]. Group 3: Corporate Culture - The award of the "2026 China Top Employer" title is seen as a collective achievement, representing the dreams and efforts of all employees, from newcomers to seasoned professionals [11]. - Yili's culture promotes a sense of belonging and encourages employees to innovate without limitations, contributing to a dynamic and engaged workforce [5][11].

Summary of Dairy Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The dairy industry is experiencing a recovery in 2026, with total milk production stable at approximately 8.3 to 8.4 million tons, unchanged from the previous year. This stability is attributed to increased yields from large farms and the reduction of capacity in social farms, while major companies like Yili and Mengniu have not faced limitations in their own milk source development, maintaining a stable overall supply [8][9]. Key Points Milk Pricing - The price of milk supplied to Yili from farms in Xuzhou is around 3.45 to 3.48 CNY per kilogram, including a transportation cost of 0.17 CNY. In contrast, prices in Inner Mongolia are lower, ranging from 2.83 to 2.86 CNY per kilogram, highlighting regional price disparities [6]. - Northern bulk milk prices increased from 2.4 CNY per kilogram at the beginning of last year to 3.2 CNY, then fell back to a stable range of 2.8 to 2.9 CNY. Southern prices have remained higher, between 3.1 and 3.7 CNY since October, driven by improved sales from Yili and Mengniu and increased competition among small dairy producers [7]. Supply Chain Dynamics - In the first half of 2026, Yili limited the purchase of fresh milk from social farms to about 75% of their quota. However, this restriction eased in October, and by November and December, full purchases resumed, with expectations of potential limitations lasting four months post-Spring Festival [5][14]. - The overall consumption of dairy products has improved in 2026, with a notable increase in market consumption compared to 2025, driven by the performance of large dairy companies [8]. Cattle and Feed Costs - The price of beef cattle has stabilized, with cull cow prices rising to around 21 CNY per kilogram, allowing for profitability in raising replacement heifers. The profit from culling a mature cow is approximately 8,000 CNY [11][20]. - Feed costs vary by region, with southern feed costs at about 1.85 CNY per kilogram and cash flow costs between 2.6 and 2.7 CNY. Northern feed costs are lower at approximately 1.63 CNY per kilogram, with cash flow costs around 2.3 CNY. The decline in feed prices has allowed most social farms to avoid cash flow losses [12][13]. Future Outlook - Yili is expected to continue limiting supply after the Spring Festival for about four months, but no further price reductions are anticipated. The market outlook for the second half of the year appears positive, with expectations of price stabilization due to competition from small dairy producers [14]. - The price of bulk milk is projected to rise in the second half of 2026, with reasonable ranges expected between 2.6 and 2.9 CNY per kilogram, and potential increases to 3 to 3.5 CNY during September to October [17]. Challenges and Risks - The proportion of calves in the Baotou region is currently low at about 30%, while a healthy range should be between 35% and 40%. This shortage poses a risk to future development and could lead to increased operational risks if not addressed [2][37]. - Some social farms have exited the industry due to financial pressures and limitations imposed by major companies, with approximately three to four farms ceasing operations in 2026 [10]. Additional Insights - The government has been supporting the development of small dairy processing plants since late 2020, which has led to increased competition for milk sources and higher prices for producers [29][30]. - The overall cash flow situation for farms in the Baotou region is relatively balanced, aided by government subsidies ranging from 5 million to 10 million CNY annually [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and dynamics within the dairy industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting pricing trends, supply chain challenges, and future outlooks.