公司研究 [公Ta司ble点_Re评po报rtT告ype] [伊Ta利bl股e_份Sto(c6k0A0n8dR8a7n)k] [Table_Author] 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 [业Tab绩le_表Titl现e] 稳健，把握低估机遇 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_Su伊mm利ar发y]布 2025 年三季报。2025Q1-3，公司实现营收 905.64 亿 元，同比+1.71%；归母净利润 104.26 亿元，同比-4.07%；扣非归母净利 润 101.03 亿元，同比+18.73%。其中，25Q3 实现营收 286.31 亿元，同 比-1.70%；归母净利润 32.26 亿元，同比-3.35%；扣非归母净利润 30.86 亿元，同比-3.08%。 点评： 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 厦B座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated resilience and confidence in improving business performance through product innovation and channel expansion, as evidenced by its steady growth in the third quarter report [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and a net profit of 10.103 billion yuan, up 18.73% year-on-year [2]. - The liquid milk segment continues to expand, achieving a revenue of 54.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters [2]. Product Innovation - The introduction of new products such as "Chew Lemon" yogurt and "Classic Fresh" milk has redefined market expectations and contributed to significant growth in the yogurt category [3][5]. - The company has launched a range of high-quality, cost-effective products in the deep processing sector, including cheese and lactoferrin, which have seen over 20% growth in the cheese division [4][5]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the infant formula market, with a revenue of 24.261 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of over 13.74% [5]. - The company is also expanding its adult nutrition product line, targeting functional products that meet the health needs of the aging population [6]. Channel Management - The company has successfully adjusted its channel strategies, leading to improved operational confidence and stability in market share for liquid milk products [2][3]. - The company is actively collaborating with various food service channels to introduce customized products, enhancing its market presence [4]. Growth Opportunities - The company anticipates continued growth in the infant formula sector due to favorable demographic trends and government subsidies, with a projected increase in newborns [6]. - The company is exploring international expansion opportunities, particularly in Southeast Asia and other high-potential markets, to enhance its global footprint [6]. Non-Dairy Business - The non-dairy segment, particularly the "Yike Huoquan" brand, has seen a significant increase in new product launches, achieving a growth rate of 70% [7]. Industry Positioning - The company is setting a standard for navigating through economic cycles in the fast-moving consumer goods sector, leveraging its early investments in high-potential categories [8].

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group (600887.SH) has released multiple positive signals during its Q3 earnings presentation, indicating confidence in maintaining a market share increase and a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Yili achieved total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%. The net profit attributable to shareholders exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.103 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.73% [2]. - Yili announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan [2]. Dividend Policy - Yili aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 70% in the coming years, with expectations for continued increases in dividend amounts as profits grow [5]. - The company emphasizes a flexible approach to shareholder returns, adjusting dividend scales based on profit growth while ensuring core business funding and financial stability [5]. Business Segments Performance - Yili's liquid milk business has shown significant improvement, stabilizing market share and enhancing profitability for distributors, setting a solid foundation for future growth [7]. - The infant formula segment continues to lead the market with double-digit revenue growth, while the adult nutrition segment also outperformed the industry, maintaining a leading market share [7]. - The cheese business is emerging as a new growth driver, with both consumer and business-to-business segments showing strong performance, expecting double-digit growth for the year [8]. Strategic Outlook - Yili's new five-year plan focuses on high-quality growth, with expectations for double-digit growth in the milk powder, cheese, and ice cream segments, contributing to overall revenue growth [10]. - The company aims to improve gross margins and sales expense ratios while maintaining a net profit margin target of 9% for the year [10]. - Yili plans to leverage industry opportunities through product innovation and expansion of distribution channels, reinforcing its competitive advantage in the market [10][11].

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.4% compared to the previous trading day, with Junyao Health leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Stock Performance - Junyao Health (605388) closed at 7.37, up 3.37% with a trading volume of 120,100 shares and a turnover of 87.84 million yuan [1] - Weiweijia (600300) closed at 3.58, up 3.17% with a trading volume of 1,225,600 shares and a turnover of 436 million yuan [1] - New Dairy (002946) closed at 17.42, up 2.41% with a trading volume of 88,900 shares and a turnover of 15.3 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Panda Dairy (300898) up 1.77% and Miaokelan Duo (600882) up 1.95% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 70.53 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 150 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 221 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Chengde Lulu (000848) had a net inflow of 49.92 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 64.64 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) experienced a net inflow of 33.18 million yuan from institutional investors, with a slight outflow from speculative funds [3] - Weiweijia (600300) had a net inflow of 19.50 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 20.42 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline in fund allocation, with the configuration ratio dropping to a new low of 6.4% in Q3 2025 from 8.0% in Q2 2025, indicating a significant reduction in investment interest [5][14] - The white wine sector is expected to reach a performance and valuation bottom, with recommendations to strategically invest in this area due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure [8][40] - The beverage and snack sectors are performing well, driven by their essential consumption characteristics and resilience against external market fluctuations [41][43] Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Trends - In Q3 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in all market funds decreased to 6.4%, down 1.6 percentage points from Q2 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020 [5][14] - The allocation ratio for active equity funds in food and beverage fell to 4.1% in Q3 2025, down from 5.6% in Q2 2025, reflecting a continued significant reduction in investment [5][14] White Wine Sector Insights - The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in white wine decreased from 4.0% in Q2 2025 to 3.2% in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of reduced allocation across both active and passive funds [6][25] - Companies with cleared financial reports, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor, are gaining market favor, while others like Wuliangye and Moutai are seeing reduced holdings [6][25] Performance and Market Dynamics - The food and beverage sector's market value increased by 3.7% in Q3 2025, but it underperformed the CSI 300 index by approximately 18.6 percentage points, ranking fifth from the bottom in the overall market [15][21] - The overall market transaction amount for the food and beverage sector fell to 1.65%, down 1.05 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a decline in trading activity [15][21] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to strategically invest in the white wine sector, focusing on stable companies like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as those undergoing market reforms like Shede Liquor [8][40] - For the broader consumer goods sector, attention should be given to companies that benefit from new channels and product categories, such as Wei Long and Ximai Foods [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [3][5] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 90.564 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.07% to 10.426 billion yuan. The adjusted net profit increased by 18.73% to 10.103 billion yuan [1] - The company’s liquid milk segment showed stable performance, while other product categories experienced good growth. The liquid milk revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.814 billion yuan, down 8.83% year-on-year, due to rational inventory management during the holiday season. The company maintained stable market share in the ambient milk category, with positive growth in milk beverages and a narrowing decline in ambient yogurt revenue [1][2] - The milk powder and dairy products segment achieved a revenue of 7.683 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 12.65% year-on-year, driven by effective growth in infant formula and adult nutrition products. The cheese business also maintained rapid growth [1][2] - The cold drink segment reported a revenue of 1.199 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.35%, supported by channel adjustments and continuous product innovation [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the gross margin was 35.48%, while the gross margin for Q3 was 33.92%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.13 percentage points. The sales expense ratio for Q1-Q3 was 18.28%, showing an improvement in expense efficiency [2] - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 11.51%, with a slight decrease in Q3 to 11.27%. The adjusted net profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 11.16%, with a decrease in Q3 to 10.78% [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2027, with expected EPS of 1.80, 1.94, and 2.10 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times respectively. The company is positioned as a leading dairy enterprise with clear medium to long-term advantages [3]

要新增长，乳企业务亟待多元化，深加工化。 乳业上市公司业绩被液奶下滑拖累的局面仍未能扭转。 今日举行的三季报业绩说明会上，伊利股份（600887.SH）管理层表示，受到行业需求偏弱和去库存操作等影响，三季度液奶业务收入仍未转正，但奶酪、 奶粉、成人营养等仍保持双位数增长，看好深加工赛道长期前景。 液奶下滑局面仍未好转 公告显示，今年前三季度伊利实现营业总收入905.6亿元，同比增长1.7%，归母净利润104.3亿元，同比减少4.1%，整体增速较半年报有所回落。其中第三季 度单季实现营业总收入286.3亿元，同比下滑1.7%，归母净利润32.3亿元，同比下降3.4%。 分业务看，拖累业绩的依然是液体乳业务，单季收入188.1亿元，同比下滑约8.7%。前三季度，伊利的液体乳业务收入为549.4亿元，同比下降4.5%。 业绩会上，伊利管理层回应表示，单三季度液奶的销量和产品结构都有所下降，今年乳品消费市场需求尚未出现明显改善，行业仍面临供需不平衡，因此伊 利也主动调整发货和库存，目前市场库存水平和经销商盈利水平都在转好。 自2024年开始，国内主要乳业上市公司就受困于液奶业务的持续下滑。液体奶也是大多数乳企的收入" ...

食品饮料行业 买入（维持） 液态乳需求承压，期待边际改善 伊利股份（600887）2025 年三季报点评 2025 年 10 月 31 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2025年三季报。 点评： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 10 月 30 | 日 | | 收盘价(元) | 27.36 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1730.62 | | 总股本(亿股) | 63.25 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 62.94 | | ROE（TTM） | 14.23% | | 12 月最高价(元) | 29.86 | | 12 月最低价(元) | 25.57 | 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 公 司 点 评 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 公 司 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 公司Q3业绩同比个位数下滑。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the white liquor sector, is in a "supply clearing" phase, with expectations for accelerated clearing as Q3 earnings reports are released [1][2] - Leading companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, have released their Q3 earnings reports, which are anticipated to reflect the industry's recovery [1] - Pacific Securities suggests that the current phase of the liquor industry shows strong similarities to the adjustment period from 2013 to 2015, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][2] Group 2 - The valuation recovery of the liquor sector is expected to occur in two stages, with the first stage driven by improved demand and market expectations for performance and pricing [1][2] - The second stage of valuation recovery is anticipated when the supply-demand relationship improves, leading to a return of market confidence in the long-term value of liquor assets, with an expected industry PE central of 30x by Q4 2026 [2] - The current PE ratio of the National Food Index is approximately 21 times, which is lower than over 90% of the time in the past five years, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.70% and 3.35% year-on-year, respectively, which aligns with expectations. The performance was impacted by a constrained consumer environment, competitive pricing strategies, and a high base effect from the previous year. However, Yili has managed to maintain its market share in liquid milk, while other business segments performed well, leading to continuous improvement in net profit margins. The overall trend remains positive [1][4] - Looking ahead to 2026, milk prices are expected to rise moderately, which could improve supply and demand dynamics. The report highlights the company's competitive advantages and resilience in performance. Additionally, Yili has initiated a mid-term dividend this year, with expectations to continue a high dividend strategy, providing substantial returns to shareholders. Future focus areas include the recovery of liquid milk, performance improvements under balanced supply and demand, and new growth drivers from deep processing, health products, and overseas markets. The projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 1.76 and 1.94 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 15.5X for 2025 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Yili's total revenue was 28.63 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.70% and 3.35%, respectively. The company reported a cash collection of 32.97 billion yuan, down 3.09% year-on-year, and operating cash flow of 6.44 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year. The mid-term dividend amounted to 3.04 billion yuan, representing 29.12% of the profit for the first three quarters [1][3][4] - In terms of product categories, liquid milk saw a decline of 8.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand and intensified competition. Conversely, milk powder and dairy products grew by 12.6%, with both infant and adult formulas expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. Ice cream sales increased by 17.4%, although its contribution to overall revenue was limited due to the end of the peak season. Other products, including new water products, saw a significant increase of 219.4% [1][3][4] - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 33.92%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a high base from the previous year and a decline in the gross margin of liquid milk. The net profit margin for Q3 was 11.27%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [1][3][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued pressure on revenue in Q4 due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing, but expects improvements in internal profit margins. The overall industry supply-demand balance is projected to improve next year, with a focus on marginal demand recovery leading to sustained performance enhancements [1][4]