Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - Downstream demand remains subdued, with modest fluctuations in costs across various consumer goods categories [1][34]. - The cost indices for six monitored consumer goods showed mixed trends, with soft drinks and instant noodles experiencing increases, while condiments, dairy products, frozen foods, and beer saw declines [34]. Cost Index Summary Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 1.05% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.88%. Year-to-date, the spot index has declined by 3.84% and the futures index by 7.87% [4][35]. - Glass prices fell by 1.9% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year, while aluminum prices showed mixed trends [12][35]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments dropped by 0.29% month-on-month, and the futures index fell by 0.47%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 3.95% and the futures index by 9.74% [16][36]. - Soybean prices showed a slight decrease in spot prices but an increase in futures prices [16][36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.45% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.39%. Year-to-date, the spot index has declined by 2.92% and the futures index by 4.19% [19][37]. - Raw milk prices remained stable at 3.03 yuan/kg, with supply pressures emerging due to cash flow issues in dairy farming [19][37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles rose by 0.49% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.51%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.77% and the futures index by 7.05% [23][38]. - Palm oil prices showed a decline, impacting overall costs [23][38]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods dropped by 0.54% month-on-month, and the futures index fell by 1.13%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.65% and the futures index by 2.42% [27][39]. - Vegetable prices experienced a month-on-month decline but a year-on-year increase, influenced by weather conditions affecting supply [27][39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 1.06% month-on-month, and the futures index rose by 0.99%. Year-to-date, the spot index has increased by 0.42% while the futures index has decreased by 10.18% [30][40]. - PET chip prices rose month-on-month, contributing to the cost increase in soft drinks [30][40].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - Wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly stabilized, with specific brands showing varied price changes. For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1600 yuan, down by 50 yuan from last month, while the price of Wuliangye has increased by 20 yuan to 820 yuan [3][38]. - Discounts on liquid milk have significantly increased, while discounts on seasoning and soft drink products have narrowed compared to the end of November. The average discount rate for seasonings rose from 85.9% to 87.1%, and for soft drinks from 85.6% to 86.7% [5][17][35]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The report details the wholesale prices of key Baijiu brands, noting that Feitian Moutai's prices have decreased by 640 yuan year-to-date compared to the previous year. Other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have also shown price stability or slight increases [9][38]. Discount Trends - Discounts on liquid milk products have widened, with the average discount rate dropping from 66.0% to 62.8%. In contrast, discounts on convenience foods have decreased from 95.8% to 94.8% [19][21][36]. - The report highlights that infant formula and beer products have maintained stable discount rates, with slight changes observed [18][35]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies rated as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating strong expected performance relative to the market [1].

"如果丢了工作，可能下个月的生活费就没有了。" 说这话的不是流浪汉，是一个在仓库有正式工作的美国合法公民。来美国最初的那几天打了几次Uber，和各个种族、背景的司机聊过。这位兼职的老墨司 机说这话时语气很平静，就像在描述今天的天气。 这不是个案。根据2025年5月美联储发布的《美国家庭经济状况调查报告》，37%的美国成年人连400美元的意外都无法轻松应对——一次小型车祸的自付 额，一次急诊的挂号费，一台坏掉的冰箱，就可能压垮一个人。只有55%的美国人有足够的应急储蓄覆盖三个月支出，30%的人表示无论用什么方式都撑 不过三个月。 这些数字不是贫困线以下的人群画像，而是覆盖了大量年薪五万、八万、甚至十万美元的中产家庭。收入看起来体面，但财务结构已经绷到极限。这就是 最近国内热议的"斩杀线"——美国人自己很少用这个词，因为这种处境就是日常本身。 作为一个长期关注消费赛道的投资者，我更关心一个被忽视的问题：为什么市场给美国消费定价"韧性"，给中国消费定价"疲软"？但如果把视角从数据表 现切换到数据结构上，会看到完全不同的东西—— 美国人的消费更多是一种义务，想活成个人样就得花钱；中国人的消费更多是一种权利，不花钱也能 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：4A广告门 还记得前段时间我们说过： 后续来了： 伊利市场部真的去请人了！ 网友向伊利提案"马年营销就找马伊琍"吗？ 要不怎么说，这届网友都是咱互联网人脉呢！ 论吃瓜，比官号还靠谱—— 那头官方还在评论区里上蹿下跳； 这头已有网友成功打入品牌内部： 图源：小红书@奶牛小哞 咱就是说，这第一视角的与会感，跟亲自在场有什么区别！ 也不用管官方啥时候官宣了—— 海报都扒出来了，可见伊利真把网友的话当事儿办。 这波市场部上大分！ 创意来源如图所示，问：网友为何感到兴奋？ ▼ 图源：小红书@梭子蟹蟹 因为品牌和代言人契合度太高了啊！ 高到仅仅是把两个名字相提并论，就能让人叹一句"天选"； 高到人人试想一下合作后的可能玩法，都能发现"自己是个天才"。 再瞅瞅这海报，内容不多，但传递的信息量极大—— 首先，它证明了伊利官方非常听劝。 这不仅指品牌听到了大众呼声，还指其听懂了网友兴奋点。 在这种全民颅内高潮的氛围下， 请马伊琍来代言，已经不再是给品牌自己找乐子，而是在满足全民情绪价值。 其次，它展现了品牌营销有自己的想法。 之前网友一直猜测伊利马 ...

Industry Dynamics - The 2025 version of the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries" has been released, effective from February 2026, promoting foreign investment in the health industry, particularly in the central and northeastern regions of China [1] - A total investment of 377 million yuan has been initiated for the modern sheep milk industry park project, aiming to create a closed-loop industrial chain, with the first phase expected to be operational by November next year [2] - The 2025 Hurun China Food Industry Top 100 list includes 11 dairy companies and 3 health food companies, with notable growth in the cheese business of Miaokelando, which saw a 63% increase in value [3] Brand Dynamics - Yili Group's Jin Hao factory has received a "five-star" rating for on-site management from the China Quality Association, marking it as the first dairy factory in China to achieve this recognition [4] - Jianhe Group has signed a new strategic cooperation agreement with JD Health, targeting a combined business goal of 10 billion yuan over the next three years, covering various nutrition brands [5] - Mengniu has launched the "Inner Mongolia Flavor" 2026 plan, showcasing innovative products and aiming to promote domestic raw material substitution in the dairy industry [6] Channel Dynamics - Gao Ge Dairy has initiated the "Student Nutrition Service Station" strategy to address declining foot traffic in traditional maternal and infant channels, targeting families with children aged 3-15 [7] - ThaiBev is shifting its strategic focus towards dairy products and soft drinks, planning to invest in expanding its halal dairy production base in Malaysia as part of its 2030 strategy [8] - Kidswant Ultra has opened its first store in Beijing, integrating cultural elements and popular global IPs to establish a competitive edge in the market [9] - The "Xiaofeixiang" Sichuan-Chongqing branch has been launched, marking a significant step in deepening regional market penetration and resource integration [10]

公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 政策利好供需改善，关注春节备货节奏 —— 公司动态报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 115,780 | 118,264 | 122,993 | 127,731 | | 收入增长率% | -8.24 | 2.15 | 4.00 | 3.85 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 8,453 | 11,200 | 12,079 | 12,930 | | 利润增长率% | -18.94 | 32.50 | 7.84 | 7.05 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 1.34 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 2.04 | | PE | 21.78 | 16.43 | 15.24 | 14.24 | | PB | 3.46 | 3.19 | 3.01 | 2.86 | | PS | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 伊利股份（股票代码：6008 ...

乳业概念资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | -0.79 | 0.60 | -6981.49 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | -7.76 | 17.37 | -6106.33 | | 600882 | 妙可蓝多 | -9.28 | 3.99 | -4879.61 | | 600429 | 三元股份 | -3.69 | 3.21 | -4181.09 | | 002183 | 怡亚通 | -2.60 | 2.67 | -3660.54 | | 605179 | 一鸣食品 | -2.05 | 1.72 | -3119.30 | | 002910 | 庄园牧场 | -1.27 | 13.15 | -1951.77 | | 002570 | 贝因美 | -0.97 | 2.58 | -1805.16 | | 300106 | 西部牧业 | -2.84 | 5.65 | -1428.25 | | 600965 | 福成股份 | -2.28 | 5 ...

这部短剧以一种前所未有的轻盈方式，回答了一个关键的问题：在经历了坎坷与重塑之后，中国奶业凭什么让国人重拾信心？ 今天的"国奶自信"，其底气究竟从何而来？ 高智女穿越1999，硬控"养牛方法论" 女博士用三天赌约赢回人生自主权，上演了一场始于技术自信的绝地反击。 在这部大火的微短剧《重生90》中，身处2025年的女主角尹利利原本是伊利集团的首席畜牧营养官，但是意外地，她一朝穿 越回1999年，从一名奶业学术专家变成一名被恶毒婶婶逼婚的农村姑娘。为了改变被逼婚的命运，她手上的一套来自未来的 《中国好牛奶&健康奶牛营养方案》，成了她以技术立身逆袭的起点。 让 国 人 喝 上 放 心 奶 。 撰 文｜ 岑 促 封 面 来 源｜ 《 重 生 9 0 》 剧 照 养 牛 天 花 板 居 然 这 么 高 了！ 近日，短剧《重生90：富豪榜我排第一，牛排第二》在短国掀起一波热度，剧中高智女主穿越回1999年被逼婚，却靠一本先 进的"养牛宝典"上演逆袭人生。短剧给观众带来爽感追剧体验的同时，剧中提到的养牛"黑科技"狠狠颠覆了这届网友的认知。 女主尹利利口中的"养牛"，不再是传统的粗放劳作，而是涉及精准营养、动物福利、数据监控等 ...

"虽然中国人的乳糖耐受性很差，但是如今中国人消费了世界上四分之一以上的牛奶。"香港树仁大学社 会学系副教授、香港中文大学人类学博士麦秀华在她的著作《牛奶狂潮：身体、科学与希望》中试图解 剖这个饮食结构发生巨大变化的典型范例。 过去人们普遍接受的观点是，现代化、生活方式西化以及牛奶在促进儿童生长方面的营养学意义，是中 国牛奶需求增长的主要原因。而麦秀华着力于分析常被忽略的一些因素：二战后的世界食物体系、政府 的作用、现代生活的医学化以及中国原有的乳制品文化。 2010年2月 27日，深圳光明农科大观园，晨光奶牛示范场的奶牛雕塑。视觉中国 图 二战后美国等发达国家以粮食援助的形式向亚洲和许多第三世界国家提供粮食出口补贴，改变了这些国 家人民的饮食方式，创造了新的饮食文化，日本的"拉面"就是一个典型的例子，来自美国援助的大量廉 价小麦面粉。麦秀华认为，20世纪80年代欧洲通过粮食援助计划向中国出口牛奶，为后来的"牛奶变 革"埋下伏笔；而雀巢等跨国乳品公司通过在中国建立生产工厂、积极开展营销活动，进一步推动了牛 奶及奶制品在东亚地区大肆扩张，深入人心。 政府的角色则在于支持乳业建设项目，体现在土地改革和乳业现代化、财 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《政策重视扩内需提消费 26 年重申看好顺 周期方向——食品饮料行业周报 行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 20251215-20251219》 2025/12/21 《高端酒批价反弹 重申白酒已在战略配置 期——食品饮料行业周报 20251208- 20251212》 2025/12/13 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251222-20251226 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 2025 年 12 月 28 日 茅台经销商会定调务实转型 临近 旺季密切关注动销 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 wangza@swsresearch.com | 1.食品饮料本周观点 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2. 食品饮料各板块市 ...