证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 [Table_Title] "十五五"方向确定，当前最佳稳健配置品 种 [Table_Title2] 伊利股份(600887) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600887 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 31.12/26.65 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,840.68 | | 最新收盘价： | 29.1 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,831.53 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 6,293.93 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 11 月 18 日，伊利股份召开以"聚力成长，价值启新"为主题的投资者日活动，明确"十五五"战 略方向，同步发布 2025-2027 年股东回报规划，承诺年度分红比例不低于 75%且每股分红金额不低于 1.22 元 （含税），强化长期投资价值预期。 分析判断 ► 双引擎驱动结构性增长，走价值创新之路 根据伊利微 ...

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜彭水萍 上周，全球市场风险偏好下降，美股科技股调整，国内半导体、新能源产业链板块调整幅度较大。 受此影响，每经品牌100指数上周下跌4.45%，以1150.98点报收。不过，在监管部门强调"坚决防止市场 大起大落、急涨急跌"的背景下，市场或不具备持续下跌的基础。 上周主要股指全线下跌 上周，外部风险释放带来指数层面的调整，A股主要股指全线下跌。截至11月21日收盘，上证指数周跌 3.90%，深证成指周跌5.13%，创业板指和科创50指数则分别周跌6.15%和5.54%。每经品牌100指数上周 也出现回调，周跌幅达4.45%，以1150.98点报收，失守1200点大关。 成分股表现方面，中国银行上周上涨8.08%，周K线实现"七连阳"，股价创历史新高，中国石化、伊利 股份、光大银行、建设银行、中国石油以及古井贡酒周涨幅超过2%，跑赢股指。周市值增长方面，中 国银行周市值增长1514.4亿元，市值增长较大，建设银行、中国石油以及中国石化市值增长则在300亿 元以上。 虽然A股主要股指出现大幅调整，但证监会明确将加大制度建设力度，优化上市公司结构、强化风险防 控与投资者保护，护航市场高质 ...

相关研究报告 《10 月社零增速延续回落，部分消费 结构性回暖 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.11.17 食品饮料 2025 年 11 月 23 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 食品饮料 沪深300 《消费板块共振上涨，消费行业结构 性回暖—行业周报》-2025.11.16 《底部布局，柳暗花明—行业投资策 略》-2025.11.14 乳制品供需拐点可期，三大机会驱动行业成长 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：乳制品已有改善信号，龙头标的具备配置价值 11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.4%，一级子行业排名第 3，跑赢 沪深 30 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy product industry is experiencing a decline in production, with a reported decrease of 0.1% in September 2025 compared to the previous year, totaling 276,000 tons [1] - Cumulative production from January to September 2025 reached 2,197.9 million tons, reflecting a 0.5% decrease year-on-year [1] Company Analysis - Key listed companies in the dairy sector include Yili Group (600887), Bright Dairy (600597), San Yuan (600429), New Dairy (002946), Huangshi Group (002329), Yantang Dairy (002732), Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910), and Pinwo Foods (300892) [1] Market Report - The report titled "2026-2032 China Dairy Product Industry Market Operation Status and Investment Prospects Trend Report" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the operational dynamics and future investment opportunities within the dairy sector [1][2]

公司公告汇总 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司于2025年11月17日召开第十一届监事会临时会议，审议通过《公司未 来三年（2025-2027年）股东回报规划》，明确2025-2027年度每年现金分红总额占当年归属于母公司股 东净利润的比例不低于75%，且每股派发现金红利不低于2024年度的1.22元（含税），该议案尚需提交 股东大会审议。 截至2025年11月21日收盘，伊利股份（600887）报收于29.1元，较上周的28.35元上涨2.65%。本周，伊 利股份11月19日盘中最高价报29.78元。11月17日盘中最低价报28.12元。伊利股份当前最新总市值 1840.68亿元，在饮料乳品板块市值排名1/26，在两市A股市值排名77/5167。 本周关注点 2025年11月14日，公司与平安银行签署最高额保证担保合同，为全资子公司Westland Dairy Company Limited提供连带责任保证担保，担保债务最高本金余额为1亿新西兰元（折合人民币约4.01亿元），本 次担保在已审批额度内，无需另行审议。截至2025年11月14日，公司及控股子公司对外担保余额为 89.70亿元人民币，其中对控股子公 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector - The banking sector is highlighted as a "dividend king," with valuations at historical lows and dividend yields surpassing many investment products [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is identified as a leading state-owned bank with a dividend yield exceeding 4.5% and stable non-performing loan ratios [3] - Ningbo Bank is noted as a high-performing city commercial bank with a dividend yield around 3.8%, strong profitability, and good asset quality [3] Group 2: Public Utilities Sector - The public utilities sector is characterized by its essential nature, ensuring stable performance regardless of market fluctuations [3] - Yangtze Power is mentioned as a leading hydropower company with a consistent dividend yield between 3.5% and 4%, supported by stable cash flow and government policies favoring clean energy [3] - China Shenhua Energy, with a dual focus on coal and electricity, offers a dividend yield exceeding 5% and possesses substantial resource reserves [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector features undervalued blue-chip stocks with improved dividend yields [3] - Yili Group, a leader in dairy products, has a valuation below 20 times earnings and a dividend yield of around 3%, benefiting from consistent domestic demand for milk [3] - Midea Group, a leading home appliance manufacturer, has a dividend yield around 4% and a valuation of approximately 12 times earnings, supported by a well-established global presence [3] Group 4: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector includes high-quality stocks with strong dividend yields and low valuations, backed by industry logic [4] - Fuyao Glass, a global leader in automotive glass, has a dividend yield of about 3.5% and a valuation around 15 times earnings, with increasing demand driven by the rise of electric vehicles [4] - China Railway Construction Corporation is highlighted as a leading infrastructure company with a dividend yield exceeding 4% and a valuation below 8 times earnings, benefiting from ample infrastructure orders under stable growth policies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a notable shift towards stock selection and sector rotation, with over 50 stocks upgraded and more than 90 downgraded in ratings, indicating a more cautious market sentiment and a focus on structural opportunities in technology, consumption, and dividend sectors [1][2][3]. Stock Rating Adjustments - Over the past month, 52 stocks have been upgraded, with the food and beverage sector having the highest number of upgrades at 7 stocks, followed by electronics and power equipment with 5 each, and pharmaceuticals and light industry with 4 each [1]. - Conversely, 92 stocks have been downgraded across 25 industries, with the automotive sector leading with 12 downgrades, followed by food and beverage with 10, and basic chemicals with 9 [2][3]. Sector Analysis - In the food and beverage sector, several companies such as Baba Foods and Ximai Foods have seen their ratings upgraded due to improved revenue growth and store efficiency [2]. - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in terminal demand, with companies like Crystal Technology and Green Link Technology receiving upgrades [2]. - The automotive sector has faced downgrades due to short-term performance pressures, with companies like Meihu and New Spring seeing their ratings lowered [3]. Market Trends and Strategies - Analysts suggest that the market is moving towards a balanced style, with a preference for large-cap stocks and a potential shift towards value stocks [4]. - The focus on growth stocks remains, but the key is whether the underlying valuation logic changes, which could drive future performance [4]. - Investment opportunities are seen in themes such as anti-involution and dividend stocks, with a particular emphasis on technology sectors that align with national strategies and possess real technological barriers [5].

Core Insights - The event held on November 18 in Beijing showcased Yili's operational achievements, innovative technologies, and future strategic plans, prompting investors to rethink the industry's growth prospects and redefine Yili's value boundaries [1] Industry Transition - The Chinese dairy industry has shifted from a phase of "quantity growth" to a new stage of "quality enhancement," where "structural growth" is replacing "universal growth" [3] - Three main structural growth opportunities identified include: 1. Increasing demand for dairy products driven by rising health awareness among the population 2. Upgrading demand in high-tier cities leading to diversified growth 3. Significant potential in differentiated product categories, particularly in adult nutrition, cheese, B2B, and deep processing of dairy products, with the adult nutrition market expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030 [5] Targeting New Markets - Yili is focusing on the silver-haired market, with over 210 million people aged 60 and above in China, projected to exceed 400 million by 2035. This demographic shows a strong demand for health management and quality living, with a nutrition product penetration rate exceeding 36% [6] - Yili has strategically positioned itself in the adult nutrition segment, with its "Xinhui" series of adult milk powder showing strong market competitiveness. The company aims to expand its product matrix into functional health products and high-value segments [8] Deep Processing and Domestic Substitution - The solid dairy product market in China is still in its infancy, with significant growth potential as consumer habits shift from liquid to solid dairy products. Yili plans to develop a hundred billion yuan deep processing segment over the next 5-10 years [10] - Currently, 35% of the domestic consumption of dairy products relies on imports, presenting an opportunity for Yili to focus on domestic substitution in key raw materials [10] International Expansion - Yili's international business has established a clear organizational structure, with operations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Oceania, and the Americas. The company aims to transition from "product export" to "ecosystem establishment" [12] - The company has set ambitious 2030 strategic goals to enhance market share and product value, aiming for a leap from "Asia's first" to "global first" in the dairy industry [12] Shareholder Returns - Yili has a strong track record of shareholder returns, with a total dividend payout of 58.566 billion yuan since its listing in 1996. The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% of net profit for the years 2025-2027 [13] - The company is committed to distributing a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share (before tax) in 2024, with potential mid-year dividends based on company performance [13] Future Outlook - The chairman of Yili expressed confidence in the dairy industry's growth potential, indicating that the industry has not yet reached its ceiling and that Yili is determined to seize new opportunities for sustained leadership [15]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited announced the quarterly index review results for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China Enterprises Index as of September 30, 2025 [1] - The number of constituent stocks remains at 80, with four new additions: China Hongqiao Group (01378), Innovent Biologics (01801), Yum China (09987), and North Huachuang (002371) [1] - Four stocks were removed from the index: New Energy (02688), Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower (600025), and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887) [1] Group 2 - The changes will take effect on December 8, 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited announced the quarterly index review results for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China Enterprises Index as of September 30, 2025 [1] - The number of constituent stocks remains at 80, with four new additions: China Hongqiao Group (01378), Innovent Biologics (01801), Yum China Holdings (09987), and North Huachuang (002371.SZ) [1][2] - Four stocks were removed from the index: New Energy (02688), Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower (600025.SH), and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH) [1][3] Group 2 - The changes will take effect on December 8, 2025 [1]