食品饮料行业 买入（维持） 液态乳需求承压，期待边际改善 伊利股份（600887）2025 年三季报点评 2025 年 10 月 31 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2025年三季报。 点评： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 10 月 30 | 日 | | 收盘价(元) | 27.36 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1730.62 | | 总股本(亿股) | 63.25 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 62.94 | | ROE（TTM） | 14.23% | | 12 月最高价(元) | 29.86 | | 12 月最低价(元) | 25.57 | 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 公 司 点 评 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 公 司 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 公司Q3业绩同比个位数下滑。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the white liquor sector, is in a "supply clearing" phase, with expectations for accelerated clearing as Q3 earnings reports are released [1][2] - Leading companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, have released their Q3 earnings reports, which are anticipated to reflect the industry's recovery [1] - Pacific Securities suggests that the current phase of the liquor industry shows strong similarities to the adjustment period from 2013 to 2015, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][2] Group 2 - The valuation recovery of the liquor sector is expected to occur in two stages, with the first stage driven by improved demand and market expectations for performance and pricing [1][2] - The second stage of valuation recovery is anticipated when the supply-demand relationship improves, leading to a return of market confidence in the long-term value of liquor assets, with an expected industry PE central of 30x by Q4 2026 [2] - The current PE ratio of the National Food Index is approximately 21 times, which is lower than over 90% of the time in the past five years, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.70% and 3.35% year-on-year, respectively, which aligns with expectations. The performance was impacted by a constrained consumer environment, competitive pricing strategies, and a high base effect from the previous year. However, Yili has managed to maintain its market share in liquid milk, while other business segments performed well, leading to continuous improvement in net profit margins. The overall trend remains positive [1][4] - Looking ahead to 2026, milk prices are expected to rise moderately, which could improve supply and demand dynamics. The report highlights the company's competitive advantages and resilience in performance. Additionally, Yili has initiated a mid-term dividend this year, with expectations to continue a high dividend strategy, providing substantial returns to shareholders. Future focus areas include the recovery of liquid milk, performance improvements under balanced supply and demand, and new growth drivers from deep processing, health products, and overseas markets. The projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 1.76 and 1.94 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 15.5X for 2025 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Yili's total revenue was 28.63 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.70% and 3.35%, respectively. The company reported a cash collection of 32.97 billion yuan, down 3.09% year-on-year, and operating cash flow of 6.44 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year. The mid-term dividend amounted to 3.04 billion yuan, representing 29.12% of the profit for the first three quarters [1][3][4] - In terms of product categories, liquid milk saw a decline of 8.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand and intensified competition. Conversely, milk powder and dairy products grew by 12.6%, with both infant and adult formulas expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. Ice cream sales increased by 17.4%, although its contribution to overall revenue was limited due to the end of the peak season. Other products, including new water products, saw a significant increase of 219.4% [1][3][4] - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 33.92%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a high base from the previous year and a decline in the gross margin of liquid milk. The net profit margin for Q3 was 11.27%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [1][3][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued pressure on revenue in Q4 due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing, but expects improvements in internal profit margins. The overall industry supply-demand balance is projected to improve next year, with a focus on marginal demand recovery leading to sustained performance enhancements [1][4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 伊利股份（600887）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 经营韧劲凸显，分红提振回报 目标价：36 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报。25 年前三季度实现营收 903.41 亿元，同比+1.81%； 归母净利润 104.26 亿元，同比-4.07%；扣非归母净利 101.03 亿元，同比 +18.73%。单 Q3 实现营收 285.64 亿元，同比-1.63%；归母净利润 32.26 亿元， 同比-3.35%；扣非归母净利 30.86 亿元，同比-3.08%。同时，公司拟派发中期 分红，A 股每股派发现金红利人民币 0.48 元（含税），合计派发 30.36 亿元， 对应前三季度分红率 29.12%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 115,780 | 117,711 | 121,329 | 125,537 | | 同比增速(%) | -8.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% ...

Core Points - Yili Co., Ltd. announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to returning profits to investors and sharing growth dividends [1] - In the third quarter report, the company achieved total operating revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.73% [1] - Since its listing, Yili has prioritized shareholder returns, implementing 25 dividend distributions totaling 58.566 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% for six consecutive years, making it the leading dairy company in China in terms of total dividends [1] - The latest dividend yield of Yili exceeds 4.4%, ranking among the top in the A-share market [2]

Core Insights - The company, Yili, reported a total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.103 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.73% [1] - Yili announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters: 90.564 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company: 10.103 billion yuan, up 18.73% year-on-year [1] Shareholder Returns - Proposed cash dividend: 3.036 billion yuan, reflecting the company's strategy to share growth benefits with investors [1]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of Yili Group in the dairy industry, showcasing revenue growth and a significant increase in non-recurring net profit despite a challenging market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yili achieved total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.426 billion yuan, a decline of 4.07% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit reached 10.103 billion yuan, marking an 18.73% increase [2] - This is the first time Yili's non-recurring net profit has surpassed 10 billion yuan in the first three quarters, indicating improved core profitability and high-quality development of its main business [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The strong growth in non-recurring net profit is attributed to product structure optimization, an increase in the proportion of high-margin products, and refined cost control [4] - The gross margin improved by 0.52 percentage points to 35.32%, reflecting the company's pricing power and cost control advantages in high-end and functional products [4] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.98 percentage points to 18.28%, while the management expense ratio was 3.84% and the R&D expense ratio was 0.69%, indicating stable overall expense ratios [4]. Business Segments Performance - Yili's liquid milk segment remains the industry leader, generating revenue of 54.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters [5] - The milk powder segment achieved revenue of 24.261 billion yuan, a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 13.74%, maintaining the top market share in China [5] - The ice cream business also performed well, with revenue of 9.428 billion yuan, a 13% increase, continuing its leadership in the industry for thirty consecutive years [5]. Global Expansion - Yili is accelerating its global expansion, with brands like Jinlingguan and Cremo entering markets in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, and the JinDian brand launching in Singapore [6] - The overseas business showed strong performance, particularly in core categories like ice cream and infant goat milk powder, becoming a key driver for global business expansion [6]. Dividend Policy - Yili announced a mid-year dividend plan, marking the first time in its history to implement such a distribution, responding to regulatory encouragement for companies to reward investors [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.48 yuan per share, totaling approximately 3.036 billion yuan, which accounts for 29.12% of its net profit for the first three quarters [7] - With a projected dividend yield exceeding 6%, Yili ranks among the top dividend-paying companies in the A-share market [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The food ETF (515710) shows stable performance with a 1.1% increase in intraday price and a transaction volume of 54.72 million yuan, reflecting a total fund size of 1.454 billion yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The food ETF (515710) has a strong intraday performance, with a price increase of 1.1% and a transaction volume of 54.72 million yuan [1] - The latest fund size of the ETF is reported at 1.454 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks such as Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Guangzhou Restaurant have shown strong performance with increases of 6.96%, 6.77%, and 5.89% respectively [1] - Conversely, stocks like Jinhui Industrial, Bright Dairy, and Yanghe Distillery have underperformed, with declines of 2.57%, 1.06%, and 0.86% respectively [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - China's baijiu exports reached a total of 570 million USD with a volume of 9.64 million liters from January to July 2025, indicating a rising average price of 59.1 USD per liter [1] - The release of the twelve fragrance standard sample aims to further regulate the development of the baijiu category [1] - According to招商证券, the baijiu industry is experiencing price fluctuations, but mid-term signals such as industry clearing and demand stimulation are positive, with potential buying opportunities expected by year-end [1] - 太平洋证券 highlights the importance of monitoring operational margins and high-growth stocks during the third-quarter report window, noting that the baijiu industry is in a supply clearing phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group (600887.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results, showing mixed performance with slight revenue growth but a decline in net profit [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 90.341 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.426 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.07% [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 10.103 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 18.73% [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 1.65 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group (600887.SH) reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing strong revenue and profit figures, indicating robust performance in the dairy industry [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2025 reached 28.564 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.226 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.086 billion yuan [1]