今日（2.5），大盘再度震荡，资金高低切换，消费板块走强。聚焦纯正新消费的港股通消费ETF汇添富（159268）放量涨超2%！资金持续青睐，近5日有3 日获净流入，累计"吸金"超4600万元！ 港股通消费ETF汇添富（159268）标的指数热门成分股中，百盛中国涨超7%，巨子生物涨超6%，泡泡玛特、海底捞涨超4%，老铺黄金涨超3%（标的指数 成分股仅做展示，不作为个股推介）。 消息面上，百胜中国公布2025年度业绩，总收入117.97亿美元，同比增加4%；净利润9.29亿美元，增长2%，每股盈利2.52美元。每股派息29美仙。单计第四 季度，总收入28.23亿美元，同比增加9%；净利润1.4亿美元，增长22%，每股盈利40美元。经营利润增长25%至1.87亿美元。季内，同店销售额增长3%，连 续第三个季度实现增长。 | 南昌 | 什么样 | 名称 | 估自权軍 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 9992 | 泡泡玛特 | 9.01% | 4.81% | 14.05 Z | | 2 | 9987 | 百胜中国 | 8.26% | 7 44% | ...

优然牧业总部位于呼和浩特，是全球最大的原料奶供应商，从牧草种植、饲料加工到奶牛养殖，覆盖了 整个产业链。而且，其原料奶销售额，超过九成来自伊利。截至2025年6月末，其坐拥100座现代化牧 场，养着超过62万头奶牛，半年就能产出208万吨原料奶。 此次伊利注入的20多亿元，将大为改善优然牧业的财务状况。据公告披露，约55%的募集资金，将用 于"偿还计息债务并优化资本结构"。而大股东的注资，提升股权比例的同时，也有望加深两家的战略协 同。编辑：王亚茹 牧业龙头，到手一笔超20亿的融资款。 近日，优然牧业发布公告，以"先旧后新"方式配售股份，加上特别授权认购，合计募资约23.3亿港元， 折合人民币约20.7亿元。这笔注资，主要来自其大股东伊利。 交易完成后，伊利持有的优然牧业股权将由33.93%增至36.07%。目前，原料奶行业处于周期低谷，此 举可视为大股东对优然的支持行动。 ...

证券之星消息，2月4日饮料乳品板块较上一交易日上涨2.59%，新乳业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。饮料乳品板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日饮料乳品板块主力资金净流入2.79亿元，游资资金净流出1.53亿元，散户资金净 流出1.26亿元。饮料乳品板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | | 1.98 Z | 12.08% | -1.40 Z | -8.53% | -5818.26万 | -3.55% | | 605499 | 东鹏饮料 | | 3694.61万 | 3.57% | 1050.94万 | 1.02% | -4745.55万 | -4.59% | | 600300 维维股份 | | | 2371.25万 | 6.75% | -1853.19万 ...

Group 1: Canned Food Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released draft recommendations for national standards for canned food to enhance industry standards and applicability [3] - The canned food industry in China is diverse but lacks innovation, particularly in attracting younger consumers, with Fujian province accounting for 36% of national production [3][4] - The industry is upgrading through the development of self-heating foods, high-end products like bird's nest canned food, and customized dining products [3][4] Group 2: New Beverage Trends - The sugar water shop has become a new franchise trend, with brands like Mai Ji Milk and Zhao Ji Chuan Cheng rapidly expanding, but facing challenges such as high costs and low-frequency consumption [5] - The Chinese herbal health water market is experiencing a sales surge due to hot weather, with products like red bean and coix seed water gaining popularity, potentially exceeding a market size of 10 billion yuan [6] - The beverage market is accelerating its health trend, with low-sugar and no-sugar products becoming standard, while traditional giants face declining sales [7] Group 3: Functional and Innovative Products - Vitamin drinks are gaining popularity among young consumers for their health benefits, with sales of Nongfu Spring's water-soluble C100 increasing by 34% year-on-year [9] - The rise of banana-flavored drinks from major brands reflects a growing market potential, leveraging high national recognition and health trends [10] - The global nutrition and health industry is set for a peak in raw material innovation and technological iteration by 2025, with a focus on standardized and stable ingredients [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Brand Strategies - The "medicinal food" trend is becoming a significant market, with a projected scale of 370 billion yuan, driven by policy support and technological advancements [12] - The rise of Chinese herbal health water reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards health-conscious products, but the industry faces challenges like exaggerated claims and quality control [14] - The dairy industry is shifting focus from consumer markets to B2B markets, driven by the growth of new consumption formats like tea and coffee [15] Group 5: Brand Developments and Challenges - The beverage brand Commune is preparing for an IPO, aiming to expand its presence while facing challenges like declining same-store sales and rising costs [24] - The acquisition of the beverage brand Dayao by KKR marks a shift towards capitalizing on efficiency over emotional branding, as the brand faces challenges in national expansion [25] - Dongpeng's coffee brand has achieved a market share of 14%, positioning itself among the top three in the ready-to-drink coffee market through a focus on quality and targeted marketing [26]

除了谐音梗营销外，跨界联名营销也是常用手段。跳出生活中的马，将传统文化中的马元素提取出来进 行深度融合，成为不少品牌的创意点。 春节还没到，品牌的马年营销已"一马当先"。消费行业数据服务品牌艺恩发布的《情绪驱动·符号新 生：2026"马"元素营销趋势报告》指出，今年1月以来，电商平台"马年"相关搜索热度呈爆发式增长， 马年新品上架数量逼近5万款，多款衍生产品销量突破万件大关，形成了强劲的消费势能。 "马"元素在社媒平台呈现波段式热度增长的背后，是品牌聚焦于联名、谐音梗、场景化、社交互动等营 销方式，推动文化符号向消费行为转化的举措。在万马奔腾的"赛马大会"中，"马"元素已经成为承载情 绪价值与社交货币的营销核心符号。而谁家能打造出品牌爆款，成为马年营销黑马？ "谐音梗"营销：关联各位姓马的明星 在社交场景中，"谐音梗"营销一向最容易出圈。在十二生肖中，马相对也比较容易玩出梗。加上马的形 象与奔跑的姿势都代表着美好、积极的寓意，因此其格外受品牌欢迎，也成为马元素营销出圈的流量密 码。不少食品、美妆、电商品牌纷纷借力明星效应，将品牌理念与明星的名字巧妙绑定，让"马"元素充 满趣味，实现了品牌记忆点的深度渗透，上演 ...

Investment Focus - The report highlights the value of consumer stocks in a volatile market, recommending a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai, Eastroc Beverage, and Yili Group, all rated as "Outperform" [1]. Industry Overview - In January 2026, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as mid-to-high-end baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced declines [3][9]. - The overall consumer industry is characterized by a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards essential goods [9]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - The revenue for the mid-to-high-end baijiu sector in January was 470 billion yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year, while the revenue for the mass-market baijiu sector was 229 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [10][11]. - The soft drink sector reported a revenue of 962 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, indicating a cautious recovery in demand [17]. - The frozen food sector saw a revenue of 150 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, driven by pre-Spring Festival stocking and low temperatures [16]. Price Trends - The report notes that the wholesale prices of major baijiu brands like Guizhou Moutai remained stable, while some brands faced downward price pressures due to high inventory levels [4][21]. - The average discount rates for liquid milk and condiments increased compared to the previous month, reflecting intensified market competition [35][37]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies four favorable funding factors for the essential consumer sector, including significant volatility in global capital markets, declining risk-free interest rates, increased foreign capital allocation to China, and low institutional allocation levels [6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with both domestic and foreign institutional preferences, as well as those showing improvements in fundamentals and dividend yields [6].

华泰证券研报指出，数十载深耕成就优秀乳业龙头，伊利股份具备把握重要发展机遇的能力，构建了产 品/供应链/渠道/营销等壁垒；在21年以来的行业下行期，公司积极蓄势，为液奶经销商纾压、顺势推出 性价比产品，并储备多元化业务等。展望未来，短期看液奶需求有望回暖，竞争缓和有望带动盈利能力 向上，中长期看全乳品类拓展，公司将持续打造成人营养、乳品深加工等增长新引擎，且增量业务的附 加值较高，预计后续的盈利能力提升仍为发展主线。重申"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.60, reflecting a positive outlook on its growth potential and market position [8]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the dairy industry through decades of focused development, creating strong barriers in product, supply chain, channel, and marketing [1][16]. - The short-term outlook for liquid milk demand is expected to improve, with a potential recovery in profitability driven by reduced competition and the introduction of value-for-money products [1][21]. - The company is strategically expanding into adult nutrition and dairy deep processing, which are anticipated to become significant growth engines in the medium to long term [1][3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from a small cooperative established in 1956 to the largest dairy enterprise in China, consistently ranking among the top five globally since 2014 [16][22]. - It has successfully navigated industry challenges, including a downturn since 2021, by diversifying its product offerings and enhancing its supply chain efficiency [2][17]. Revenue Growth - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, particularly in high-end and functional liquid milk, which are expected to present structural opportunities for growth [3][18]. - The adult nutrition segment is projected to grow significantly, with the functional health food market expected to increase by over 23% from 2025 to 2030 [3][19]. Profitability Enhancement - The liquid milk business is anticipated to see improved profitability as milk prices stabilize and competition eases, allowing for better gross margins [4][19]. - The company aims to achieve a profit margin of 5%-10% in its deep processing business, which is expected to contribute positively to overall profitability [4][19]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% of its net profit for the years 2025-2027, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [20]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a strong competitive edge through its comprehensive product portfolio, robust supply chain management, and effective marketing strategies [2][5]. - It is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the dairy market, including the growing demand for high-quality and functional dairy products [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.60, up from the previous target of RMB 34.38, reflecting an increase in the comparable company's PE average for 2026 [8][6]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the dairy industry through decades of focused development, creating strong barriers in product, supply chain, channel, and marketing [2][16]. - The short-term outlook for liquid milk demand is expected to improve, with a potential recovery in profitability driven by reduced competition. In the medium to long term, the company aims to expand its full dairy product range, focusing on adult nutrition and deep processing of dairy products as new growth engines [1][19]. - The company has a robust competitive advantage, having successfully developed several billion-yuan products and maintained a high-efficiency supply chain [2][16]. Summary by Sections Historical Development - The company has evolved from a small cooperative established in 1956 to the largest dairy enterprise in China, consistently ranking among the top five globally since 2014 [22][16]. - The company has navigated various industry phases, including a focus on high-margin products and strategic diversification into multiple dairy segments [24][23]. Revenue Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in its liquid milk business, with high-end and functional products presenting structural opportunities. The adult nutrition segment is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted revenue increase of over 23% in the health food sector by 2025-2030 [3][18]. - The deep processing of dairy products is anticipated to benefit from improved domestic R&D capabilities, with a target of achieving RMB 10 billion in revenue from this segment within five years [3][19]. Profitability Insights - The report suggests that the company's profitability is likely to improve, with a stabilization in milk prices expected in 2026. The competitive landscape is anticipated to shift towards more rational collaboration among leading dairy companies, enhancing overall industry stability [4][19]. - The company aims to achieve a profit margin of 5%-10% in its deep processing business, which is expected to contribute positively to overall profitability without dragging down the company's margins [4][19]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% of its net profit for the years 2025-2027, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [20][19]. Market Perspective - The report contrasts its optimistic view with some market skepticism regarding the dairy industry's growth potential, asserting that the company’s multi-dimensional advantages will allow it to continue expanding its growth boundaries [5][21].

Summary of Yili Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Dairy Products Key Points Revenue and Growth Expectations - Yili expects its ambient liquid milk business to achieve positive revenue growth by 2026, driven by the continued growth of yogurt, the launch of new white milk products, and the combination of cost-effective products with emerging channels [2][5] - If the industry experiences significant decline, Yili will prioritize profitability over revenue growth [2][5] Product Strategy - The company plans to optimize its product mix, increasing the share of adult nutrition products, deep processing products (like cheese), and international business to enhance overall gross margin and profitability [2][6] - Adult nutrition products are expected to maintain rapid growth, with plans to expand into non-powder products like protein powder and cautiously advance into functional health foods [2][8] Deep Processing Business - Yili aims for its deep processing business to reach a scale of 10 billion in the next five years, focusing on high-value products such as protein isolates and cheese [2][12] - The current deep processing business is at approximately 6 billion, with domestic sales around 2 billion and Westland contributing about 4 billion [12] Market Conditions and Pricing - Raw milk prices are expected to gradually rise in 2026, improving supply-demand dynamics, although small dairy enterprises may face increased costs [17] - Promotional activities are expected to decrease, positively impacting gross margins, but rising milk prices may have a negative effect, leading to stable overall gross margins [17] Inventory Management - Yili has actively reduced inventory levels since Q2 2024, with current dealer inventory around 20 days, and is focusing on natural sales rather than excessive stocking for the New Year [3] Channel Strategy - The company will adjust channel support policies based on market conditions, emphasizing cost efficiency [4] - Yili plans to replicate successful models in Southeast Asia and explore cold drink business opportunities in Africa, while collaborating with Ausnutria to share international supply chain resources [4][19] Emerging Channels - Emerging channels are generally profitable, with variations among them; membership stores show stronger profitability compared to bulk snack stores [23] - Yili aims to balance emerging and traditional channels, focusing on consumer engagement and customized products [24] Baby Formula Business - The 2025 fertility subsidy plan positively impacted the baby formula business, contributing to double-digit growth despite a declining birth rate [25] - Yili will continue to invest in customer acquisition strategies, even without the subsidy, to maintain growth in the baby formula segment [25] Capital Expenditure - Yili's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at around 4 billion, with over 2 billion allocated for maintenance and the remainder for new projects [26] International Expansion - Yili plans to expand into other Southeast Asian countries and explore cold drink opportunities in Africa, adapting products to local climates [20] - The company will consider both self-built and acquisition strategies for market entry, depending on local conditions [21][22] Functional Health Products - Yili has introduced new functional products like protein powder and spore oil, targeting the aging population and leveraging e-commerce for initial sales [10] Collaboration with Tongrentang - The collaboration with Tongrentang on high-value products has shown positive results, contributing better margins [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Yili Co., Ltd.'s conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market conditions, and growth initiatives.